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Insufficient capital buffers of banks have been identified as one main cause for the large systemic effects of the recent financial crisis. Although higher capital is no panacea, it yet features prominently in proposals for regulatory reform. But how do increased capital requirements affect business loans? While there is widespread belief that the real costs of increased bank capital in terms of reduced loans could be substantial, there are good reasons to believe that the negative real sector implications need not be severe. In this paper, we take a long-run perspective by analyzing the link between the capitalization of the banking sector and bank loans using panel cointegration models. We study the evolution of the German economy for the past 60 years. We find no evidence for a negative impact of bank capital on business loans.

There is growing consensus that the conduct of monetary policy can have an impact on stability through the risk-taking incentives of banks. Falling interest rates might induce a 'search for yield' and generate incentives to invest into risky activities. This paper provides evidence on the link between monetary policy, commercial property prices, and bank risk taking. We use a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR) for the U.S. for the period 1997-2008. We include standard macroeconomic indicators and factors summarizing information provided in the Federal Reserve's Survey of Terms of Business Lending. These data allow modeling the reactions of banks' new lending volumes and prices as well as the riskiness of new loans. We do not find evidence for increased risk taking for the entire banking system after a monetary policy loosening or an unexpected increase in property prices. This masks, however, important differences across banking groups. Small domestic banks increase their exposure to risk, foreign banks lower risk, and large domestic banks do not change their risk exposure.

There is growing consensus that the conduct of monetary policy can have an impact on financial and economic stability through the risk-taking incentives of banks. Falling interest rates might induce a 'search for yield' and generate incentives to invest into risky activities. This paper provides evidence on the link between monetary policy and commercial property prices and the risk-taking incentives of banks. We use a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR) for the U.S. for the years 1997-2008. We include standard macroeconomic indicators and factors summarizing information provided in the Federal Reserve's Survey of Terms of Business Lending. These data allow modeling the reactions of banks' new lending volumes and the riskiness of new loans. We do not find evidence for a risk-taking channel for the entire banking system after a monetary policy loosening or an unexpected increase in property prices. This masks, however, important differences across banking groups. Small domestic banks increase their exposure to risk, foreign banks lower risk, and large domestic banks do not change their risk exposure.

This paper explores the impact of financial constraints on the internationalization strategies of firms. It contributes to the literature by focusing on three aspects: First, the paper studies the impact of financial constraints on exporting relative to FDI. Consistent with theory, the empirical results confirm that the impact of financial constraints is stronger for FDI than for exporting. Second, the paper analyzes the extensive and the intensive margins and finds that financial frictions matter for both. Third, the paper explores the impact on manufacturing as compared to service industries and shows that firms in service industries are affected more than firms in manufacturing. The paper also identifies a threshold effect: Financial constraints do not matter for small firms whose productivity seems to be too low to consider international expansions.

The interplay between banks and the macroeconomy is of key importance for financial and economic stability. We analyze this link using a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR) which extends a standard VAR for the U.S. macroeconomy. The model includes GDP growth, inflation, the Federal Funds rate, house price inflation, and a set of factors summarizing conditions in the banking sector. We use data of more than 1,500 commercial banks from the U.S. call reports to address the following questions. How are macroeconomic shocks transmitted to bank risk and other banking variables? What are the sources of bank heterogeneity, and what explains differences in individual banks' responses to macroeconomic shocks? Our paper has two main findings: (i) Average bank risk declines, and average bank lending increases following expansionary shocks. (ii) The heterogeneity of banks is characterized by idiosyncratic shocks and the asymmetric transmission of common shocks. Risk of about 1/3 of all banks rises in response to a monetary loosening. The lending response of small, illiquid, and domestic banks is relatively large, and risk of banks with a low degree of capitalization and a high exposure to real estate loans decreases relatively strongly after expansionary monetary policy shocks. Also, lending of larger banks increases less while risk of riskier and domestic banks reacts more in response to house price shocks.

Globalization may impose a double-burden on low-skilled workers. On the one hand, the relative supply of low-skilled labor increases. This suppresses wages of low-skilled workers and/or increases their unemployment rates. On the other hand, low-skilled workers typically face more limited access to financial markets than high-skilled workers. This limits their ability to smooth shocks to income intertemporally and to share risks across borders. Using cross-country, industry-level data for the years 1970 - 2004, we document how the volatility of hours worked and of wages of workers at different skill levels has changed over time. We develop a stylized theoretical model that is consistent with the empirical evidence, and we test the predictions of the model. Our results show that greater financial globalization and development increases the volatility of employment, and this effect is strongest for low-skilled workers. A higher share of low-skilled employment has a dampening impact.

Modern trade theory emphasizes firm-level productivity differentials to explain the cross-border activities of non-financial firms. This study tests whether a productivity pecking order also determines international banking activities. Using a novel dataset that contains all German banks’ international activities, we estimate the ordered probability of a presence abroad (extensive margin) and the volume of international assets (intensive margin). Methodologically, we enrich the conventional Heckman selection model to account for the self-selection of banks into different modes of foreign activities using an ordered probit. Four main findings emerge. First, similar to results for non-financial firms, a productivity pecking order drives bank internationalization. Second, only a few non-financial firms engage in international trade, but many banks hold international assets, and only a few large banks engage in foreign direct investment. Third, in addition to productivity, risk factors matter for international banking. Fourth, gravity-type variables have an important impact on international banking activities.

Does more FDI make the world a riskier place for workers? We analyze whether an increase in multinational firms' activities is associated with an increase in firm-level employment volatility. We use a firm-level dataset for Germany which allows us to distinguish between purely domestic firms, domestic multinationals, their foreign affiliates, and foreign firms that are active in Germany. We decompose the volatility of firms into their reaction and their exposure to aggregate developments. Generally, we find no above-average wage and output elasticities for multinational firms.

From a theoretical point of view, greater trade openness affects firm-level volatility by changing the exposure and the reaction of firms to macroeconomic shocks. The net effect is ambiguous, though. This paper provides firm-level evidence on the link between openness and volatility. Using two novel datasets on German firms, we analyze the evolution of firm-level output volatility and the link between volatility and trade openness. We find that firm-level output volatility displays patterns similar to those found in aggregated data for Germany. Also, smaller firms and firms that grow faster are more volatile. Increased trade openness tends to lower volatility.

This paper studies the sectoral and geographical dimensions of the response of bank lending to sectoral growth. We use several bank-level datasets provided by the Deutsche Bundesbank for the 1996-2002 period. Our results show that bank heterogeneity affects how lending responds to domestic sectoral growth. We document that banks? total lending to German firms reacts procyclically to domestic sectoral growth, while lending exceeding a threshold of ?1.5 million to German and foreign firms does not. Moreover, we find that the response of lending depends on bank characteristics such as the banking groups, the banks? asset size, and the degree of sectoral portfolio concentration. We find that total domestic lending by savings banks and credit cooperatives (including their regional institutions), smaller banks, and banks whose portfolios are heavily concentrated in specific sectors responds positively and, in relevant cases, more strongly to domestic sectoral growth.

Globalization has effected business cycle developments in OECD countries and has increased activities of firms across national borders. This paper analyzes whether these two developments are linked. We use a new firm-level dataset on the foreign activities of German firms to test whether foreign activities are affected by business cycle developments. We aggregate the data by the sector of the reporting firm, the sector of the foreign affiliate, and the host country. Data are annual and cover the period 1989-2002. We find that German outward FDI increases in response to positive cyclical developments abroad and in response to a real depreciation of the domestic currency.

Economic theory predicts that the integration of financial markets lowers the volatility of consumption. In this paper, we study long-term trends in the consumption volatility of the G7 countries. Using different measures of financial openness, we find some evidence that greater financial openness has been associated with lower consumption volatility. However, volatility of consumption relative to output has not declined.

Changes in foreign asset holdings are one channel through which agents adjust to macroeconomic shocks. In this paper, we test whether foreign bank assets change as a result of domestic and foreign macroeconomic shocks. We frame our empirical analysis in a standard new open economy macro model in which financial markets are imperfectly integrated. We test the implications of this model using dynamic panel models for changes in foreign bank assets. We find evidence that nominal interest rate differentials and inflation differentials drive changes in foreign bank assets permanently, while growth rate differentials and exchange rates have only a temporary effect.

Worker remittances constitute an increasingly important mechanism for the transfer of resources from developed to developing countries, and remittances are the second-largest source, behind foreign direct investment, of external funding for developing countries. Yet, literature on worker remittances has so far focused mainly on the impact of remittances on income distribution within countries, on the determinants of remittances at a micro-level, or on the effects of migration and remittances for specific countries or regions. The focus of this paper is thus on four questions: First, how important are worker remittances to developing countries in quantitative terms? Second, what are the determinants driving worker remittances? Third, how volatile are worker remittances to developing countries? Fourth, are remittances correlated to other capital flows?

The presence of other firms in a foreign market can have a double-edged effect on the profitability of new entrants. Firstly, a larger presence of other firms implies more competition and thus lowers the earnings prospects of new entrants. Secondly, there might be positive spill-over effects between the activities of new and old entrants, which can lead to clustering effects. Such clustering of firms in foreign markets has been documented in the empirical literature on foreign direct investment (FDI) of nonfinancial firms, but little evidence is available for banks. This paper analyses whether banks have a tendency to cluster abroad and whether smaller banks in particular invest in markets where other banks are already present. We use firm-level evidence on the foreign direct investments of German banks for the period 1997-2000 to test this hypothesis. Our results suggest that German banks are indeed more active in markets in which other German banks are already present. However, once we control for countryfixed effects, the negative competition effect dominates.

Globalization has affected the integration of markets through many different channels, including movements of factors and trade in goods. From a theoretical point of view, the interaction between the different channels of integration can take different forms. The aim of this paper is to analyze the interaction between different channels of integration empirically. More specifically, we use state-level German data to answer the question whether and how migration and FDI decisions and thus integration of labor and capital markets are linked. Our findings suggest that FDI and migration have similar determinants. Moreover, there is substantial evidence that factors cluster.

During the last two decades, the degree of openness of national financial systems has increased substantially. At the same time, asymmetries in information and other financial market frictions have remain prevalent. We study both empirically and theoretically the implications of the opening up of national financial systems in the presence of financial market frictions for business cycle volatility. In our empirical analysis, we demonstrate that stylised facts suggest that countries with more developed financial systems have lower business cycle volatility. Financial openness has no strong impact on business cycle volatility, in contrast. In our theoretical analysis, we use a dynamic general equilibrium model to study the implications of the opening up of national financial markets and of financial market frictions for business cycle volatility. We find that the implications of opening up national financial markets for business cycle volatility are largely unaffected by the presence of financial market frictions.

This paper provides new evidence on the foreign direct investment stocks of German firms. We use firm-level data for the years 1990-2000 to describe the regional and sectoral patterns of German FDI through gravity-type equations. We provide evidence on the patterns of FDI by sector, by size of the foreign affiliate, and by the number of affiliates per host country. While market size and geographic distance have a significant impact on FDI stocks, we also find differences in the determinants of FDI between sectors as well as between the size of foreign affiliates and the number of foreign affiliates. Dieses Papier untersucht die Direktinvestitionsbestände deutscher multinationaler Unternehmen im Ausland auf drei verschiedenen Aggregationsniveaus. Dafür nutzen wir einen reichhaltigen Datensatz auf Unternehmensebene, der sektoral und auf Länderebene aggregiert und als Mikrodatensatz analysiert wird. Unsere Analyse bezieht sich auf die Jahre 1990 bis 2000. Mittels eines Gravitätsansatzes beschreiben wir die sektoralen und regionalen Muster deutscher Direktinvestitionen im Ausland und diskutieren die Unterschiede, die sich für die verschiedenen Aggregationsniveaus ergeben.

This paper discusses whether the integration of international financial markets affects business cycle fluctuations. In the framework of a new open economy macro-model, we show that the link between financial openness and business cycle volatility depends on the nature of the underlying shock. Empirical evidence supports this conclusion. Our results also show that the link between business cycle volatility and financial openness has not been stable over time.

Stylized facts suggest that output volatility in OECD countries has declined in recent years. However, the causes and the nature of this decline have so far been analyzed mainly for the United States. In this paper, we analyze whether structural breaks in the dynamics and the volatility of the real output process in Germany can be detected. We report evidence that output volatility has declined in Germany. Yet, this decline in output volatility is not as clear-cut as it is in the case of the United States. In consequence, it is difficult to answer the question whether the decline in output volatility in Germany reflects good economic and monetary policy or merely ?good luck?.

The debate on the risks and benefits of the globalisation of international capital markets has focused on the volume and the volatility of the main capital flows – foreign direct investment (FDI), portfolio investment, and foreign bank lending. Financial transfers in the form of worker remittances have received less attention in this context. This paper provides an analysis on the magnitude of remittances, their volatility, and their relationship to other capital flows. Moreover, we provide empirical evidence on the determinants of remittances and private capital flows.

If the technological revolution which has taken place over the past decades has lowered information costs and if information costs increase in distance, distance should – ceteris paribus – become less important in determining international bank lending. We are using a dataset on assets and liabilities of commercial banks from five countries (France, Germany, Italy, UK, US) in up to 50 host countries for the years 1983 through 1998 to test this hypothesis. For the European banks, distance has remained of the same importance it used to have. For the US, a declining importance of distance was found. Several interpretations of these findings are discussed.

International activities of commercial banks are a potential source for the transmission of shocks across countries. In Europe, bank finance plays a relatively important role, and efforts have been made at creating a level playing field for financial institutions. This paper reviews the stylized facts of the integration of European banking markets and the changing nature of cross-border banking. Although the openness of financial systems has increased, bilateral financial linkages among EU countries remain relatively small. The exception are claims of German banks on a number of smaller countries, and we use these data for an analysis of the determinants of cross-border lending patterns.

This paper examines the FDI flows towards two regions in the periphery of Europe: the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) and the countries of Southern Europe. We investigate whether evidence exists for FDI diversion from Southern Europe to the CEECs. A cursory observation of recent FDI trends might give rise to such claims of diversion. On the basis of gravity model equations, this paper compares the expected and actual FDI figures. The findings lead us to conclude that there is no evidence of FDI diversion between these two regions.

Although domestic mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in the financial services industry have increased steadily over the past two decades, international M&As were relatively rare until recently. This paper uses a novel dataset of over 2,300 mergers that took place between 1978 and 2001 to analyse the determinants of international bank mergers. We test the extent to which information costs and regulations hold back merger activity. Our results suggest that banks operating in more regulated environments are less likely to be the targets of international bank mergers. Hence, the lifting of regulations can spur growth in cross-border bank mergers. Also, mergers tend to be less frequent if information costs are high.

One key focus of the on-going debate on the integration of international financial markets have been measures to lengthen the maturity of foreign debt. Short-term debt is typically considered to be volatile and thus a potential trigger of currency crises. In contrast to the vivid policy debate on these issues, there is relatively little theoretical and empirical evidence on the determinants of short-term debt. This paper summarizes the theoretical literature on the issue and presents a stylized theoretical model, which focuses on the risks and benefits of short-term debt under conditions of uncertainty. Empirical evidence shows that the level of economic development, the presence of financial centres, and the share of loans to banks have a positive impact on the share of short-term loans. OECD membership, in contrast, has a negative influence.

Information costs and regulatory barriers are the main distinguishing features of international financial markets as compared to national financial markets. This paper presents a simple model of the impact of these factors on banks' cross-border activities and provides empirical evidence. Our dataset allows us to capture both the times-series and the cross-section dimension of information costs and changes in regulations, in particular, for intra-EU asset holdings. While EU membership per se seems to have had a negative impact on cross-border banking activities, the adoption of the Single Market clearly had a positive impact. While regulations and information costs are important for all reporting countries, their relative importance differs between countries.

Pecking order models of international finance suggest that countries should become less reliant on international bank lending as they develop. Reduced information costs are one of the factors behind this trend towards disintermediation. This paper presents a simple model on the choice between bank debt and bond finance which builds on Rajan (1992), and it uses two new datasets to test the implications, focusing on bilateral cross-border bank claims and bond holdings. We find support for the hypothesis that the state of development of an economy lowers the share of bank finance. However, evidence on the importance of variables which more directly measure information costs is less clear-cut.

Surges and reversals of short-term foreign liabilities are often held responsible for instabilities in international financial markets. Yet, empirical evidence on the factors determining the maturity of capital flows is scant. This paper analyzes the determinants of foreign assets of German banks for a panel of up to 73 countries for the years 1985?1997. Cross section estimates show that short- and long-term assets are highly correlated with foreign trade links but not necessarily with variables capturing regulatory restrictions. Trade activities are more important in explaining claims on banks versus non-banks. There is some evidence for a negative impact of exchange rate volatility on the share of short-term assets.

The EU has recently entered accession talks with five transition economies of eastern Europe. Membership in the EU would require inter alia the full liberalization of capital flows. This paper provides empirical evidence on the openness towards foreign capital that the accession states have attained so far on the basis of the correlation between domestic saving and investment. A comparison with the southern members of the EU shows that the countries under review have reached a similar degree of integration in quantitative terms. Yet, further adjustment in qualitative terms, i.e., in the structure of capital flows, can be expected as the process of accession proceeds.

The process of European integration has gained considerable momentum during the past couple of years. This paper provides an assessment of the degree of integration of both the accession states of central and eastern Europe and of the pre-ins for monetary union with respect to Germany. Using tests for cointegration and common features for monthly data during the 1990s, we find evidence for financial rather than real integration.