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The European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme under grant agreement No. HEALTH-F2-2010-241909 (EUGEI); The Spanish sample was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, Instituto de Salud Carlos III (SAM16PE07CP1, PI16/02012, PI19/024) (...), Velthorst, E., Mollon, J., Murray, R.M., de Haan, L., Germeys, I.M., Glahn, D.C., Arango, C., van der Ven, E., Di Forti, M., Bernardo, M., Guloksuz, S., Delespaul, P., Mezquida, G., Amoretti, S., Bobes, J., Saiz, P.A., García-Portilla, M.P., Santos, J.L., Jiménez-López, E., Sanjuan, J., Aguilar, E.J., Arrojo, M., Carracedo, A., López, G., González-Peñas, J., Parellada, M., Atbaşoğlu, C., Saka, M.C., Üçok, A., Alptekin, K., Akdede, B., Binbay, T., Altınyazar, V., Ulaş, H., Yalınçetin, B., Gümüş-Akay, G., Beyaz, B.C., Soygür, H., Cankurtaran, E.Ş., Kaymak, S.U., Maric, N.P., Mihaljevic, M.M., Petrovic, S.A., Mirjanic, T., Del-Ben, C.M., Ferraro, L., Gayer-Anderson, C., Jones, P.B., Jongsma, H.E., Kirkbride, J.B., La Cascia, C., Lasalvia, A., Tosato, S., Llorca, P.-M., Menezes, P.R., Morgan, C., Quattrone, D., Menchetti, M., Selten, J.-P., Szöke, A., Tarricone, I., Tortelli, A., McGuire, P., Valmaggia, L., Kempton, M.J., van der Gaag, M., Riecher-Rössler, A., Bressan, R.A., Barrantes-Vidal, N., Nelson, B., McGorry, P., Pantelis, C., Krebs, M.-O., Ruhrmann, S., Sachs, G., Rutten, B.P.F., van Os, J., Alizadeh, B.Z., van Amelsvoort, T., Bartels-Velthuis, A.A., Bruggeman, R., van Beveren, N.J., Luykx, J.J., Cahn, W., Simons, C.J.P., Kahn, R.S., Schirmbeck, F., van Winkel, R., Calem, M., Tognin, S., Modinos, G., Pisani, S., Kraan, T.C., van Dam, D.S., Burger, N., Amminger, G.P., Politis, A., Goodall, J., Borgwardt, S., Studerus, E., Gadelha, A., Brietzke, E., Asevedo, G., Asevedo, E., Zugman, A., Domínguez-Martínez, T., Monsonet, M., Cristóbal-Narváez, P., Racioppi, A., Kwapil, T.R., Kazes, M., Daban, C., Bourgin, J., Gay, O., Mam-Lam-Fook, C., Nordholm, D., Rander, L., Krakauer, K., Glenthøj, L.B., Glenthøj, B., Gebhard, D., Arnhold, J., Klosterkötter, J., Lasser, I., Winklbaur, B., Reichenberg, A., EU-GEI High Risk Study

Background First-degree relatives of patients with psychotic disorder have higher levels of polygenic risk (PRS) for schizophrenia and higher levels of intermediate phenotypes. Methods We conducted, using two different samples for discovery (n= 336 controls and 649 siblings of patients with psychotic disorder) and replication (n= 1208 controls and 1106 siblings), an analysis of association between PRS on the one hand and psychopathological and cognitive intermediate phenotypes of schizophrenia on the other in a sample at average genetic risk (healthy controls) and a sample at higher than average risk (healthy siblings of patients). Two subthreshold psychosis phenotypes, as well as a standardised measure of cognitive ability, based on a short version of the WAIS-III short form, were used. In addition, a measure of jumping to conclusion bias (replication sample only) was tested for association with PRS. Results In both discovery and replication sample, evidence for an association between PRS and subthreshold psychosis phenotypes was observed in the relatives of patients, whereas in the controls no association was observed. Jumping to conclusion bias was similarly only associated with PRS in the sibling group. Cognitive ability was weakly negatively and non-significantly associated with PRS in both the sibling and the control group. Conclusions The degree of endophenotypic expression of schizophrenia polygenic risk depends on having a sibling with psychotic disorder, suggestive of underlying gene-environment interaction. Cognitive biases may better index genetic risk of disorder than traditional measures of neurocognition, which instead may reflect the population distribution of cognitive ability impacting the prognosis of psychotic disorder.

Exposures constitute a dense network of the environment: exposome. Here, we argue for embracing the exposome paradigm to investigate the sum of nongenetic "risk" and show how predictive modeling approaches can be used to construct an exposome score (ES; an aggregated score of exposures) for schizophrenia. The training dataset consisted of patients with schizophrenia and controls, whereas the independent validation dataset consisted of patients, their unaffected siblings, and controls. Binary exposures were cannabis use, hearing impairment, winter birth, bullying, and emotional, physical, and sexual abuse along with physical and emotional neglect. We applied logistic regression (LR), Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB), the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and Ridge penalized classification models to the training dataset. ESs, the sum of weighted exposures based on coefficients from each model, were calculated in the validation dataset. In addition, we estimated ES based on meta-analyses and a simple sum score of exposures. Accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic, and Nagelkerke's R-2 were compared. The ESMeta-analyses performed the worst, whereas the sum score and the ESGNB were worse than the ESLR that performed similar to the ESLASSO and ESRIDGE. The ESLR distinguished patients from controls (odds ratio [OR] = 1.94, P < .001), patients from siblings (OR = 1.58, P < .001), and siblings from controls (OR = 1.21, P= .001). An increase in ESLR was associated with a gradient increase of schizophrenia risk. In reference to the remaining fractions, the ESLR at top 30%, 20%, and 10% of the control distribution yielded ORs of 3.72, 3.74, and 4.77, respectively. Our findings demonstrate that predictive modeling approaches can be harnessed to evaluate the exposome.