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Abstract In 2021, only 6.4 million of the 10.6 million people with tuberculosis (TB) were diagnosed and treated for the disease. Although the World Health Organization recommends initial diagnostic testing using a rapid sensitive molecular assay, only 38% of people diagnosed with TB benefited from these, due to barriers including the high cost of available assays. Pooled testing has been used as an approach to increase testing efficiency in many resource-constrained situations, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, but it has not yet been widely adopted for TB diagnostic testing. Here we report a retrospective analysis of routine pooled testing of 10,117 sputum specimens using the Xpert MTB/RIF and Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra assays that was performed from July 2020 to February 2022. Pooled testing saved 48% of assays and enabled rapid molecular testing for 4156 additional people as compared to individual testing, with 6.6% of specimens positive for TB. From an in silico analysis, the positive percent agreement of pooled testing in pools of 3 as compared with individual testing for the Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra assay was estimated as 99.4% (95% CI, 96.6% to 100%). These results support the scale-up of pooled testing for efficient TB diagnosis.

Abstract Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of avoidable deaths from an infectious disease globally and a large of number of people who develop TB each year remain undiagnosed. Active case-finding has been recommended by the World Health Organization to bridge the case-detection gap for TB in high burden countries. However, concerns remain regarding their yield and cost-effectiveness. Data from mobile chest X-ray (CXR) supported active case-finding community camps conducted in Karachi, Pakistan from July 2018 to March 2020 was retrospectively analyzed. Frequency analysis was carried out at the camp-level and outcomes of interest for the spatial analyses were mycobacterium TB positivity (MTB+) and X-ray abnormality rates. The Global Moran’s I statistic was used to test for spatial autocorrelation for MTB+ and abnormal X-rays within Union Councils (UCs) in Karachi. A total of 1161 (78.1%) camps yielded no MTB+ cases, 246 (16.5%) camps yielded 1 MTB+, 52 (3.5%) camps yielded 2 MTB+ and 27 (1.8%) yielded 3 or more MTB+. A total of 79 (5.3%) camps accounted for 193 (44.0%) of MTB+ cases detected. Statistically significant clustering for MTB positivity (Global Moran’s I: 0.09) and abnormal chest X-rays (Global Moran’s I: 0.36) rates was identified within UCs in Karachi. Clustering of UCs with high MTB positivity were identified in Karachi West district. Statistically significant spatial variation was identified in yield of bacteriologically positive TB cases and in abnormal CXR through active case-finding in Karachi. Cost-effectiveness of active case-finding programs can be improved by identifying and focusing interventions in hotspots and avoiding locations with no known TB cases reported through routine surveillance.

BackgroundRecent technological and radiological advances have renewed interest in using X-rays to screen and triage people with tuberculosis (TB). The miniaturization of digital X-ray (DXR), combined with automatic interpretation using computer-aided detection (CAD) software can extend the reach of DXR screening interventions for TB. This qualitative study assessed early implementers' experiences and lessons learned when using ultra-portable (UP) DXR systems integrated with CAD software to screen and triage TB.MethodsSemi-structured interviews were conducted with project staff and healthcare workers at six pilot sites. Transcripts were coded and analyzed using a framework approach. The themes that emerged were subsequently organized and presented using the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR).ResultsThere were 26 interviewees with varying roles: supervisory, clinicians, radiographers, and radiologists. Participants recognized the portability as the main advantage, but criticize that it involves several compromises on throughput, internet dependence, manoeuvrability, and stability, as well as suitability for patients with larger body sizes. Furthermore, compared to using hardware and software from the same supplier and without digital health information systems, complexity increases with interoperability between hardware and software, and between different electronic health information systems. Currently, there is a limited capacity to implement these technologies, especially due to the need for threshold selection, and lack of guidance on radiation protection suitable for UP DXR machines. Finally, the respondents stressed the importance of having protected means of sharing patient medical data, as well as comprehensive support and warranty plans.ConclusionStudy findings suggest that UP DXR with CAD was overall well received to decentralize radiological assessment for TB, however, the improved portability involved programmatic compromises. The main barriers to uptake included insufficient capacity and lack of guidance on radiation protection suitable for UP DXR.

Background Recent technological and radiological advances have renewed interest in using X-rays to screen and triage people with tuberculosis (TB). The miniaturization of digital X-ray (DXR), combined with automatic interpretation using computer-aided detection (CAD) software can extend the reach of DXR screening interventions for TB. This qualitative study assessed early implementers’ experiences and lessons learned when using ultra-portable (UP) DXR systems integrated with CAD software to screen and triage TB. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with project staff and healthcare workers at six pilot sites. Transcripts were coded and analyzed using a framework approach. The themes that emerged were subsequently organized and presented using the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR). Results There were 26 interviewees with varying roles: supervisory, clinicians, radiographers, and radiologists. Participants recognized the portability as the main advantage, but criticize that it involves several compromises on throughput, internet dependence, manoeuvrability, and stability, as well as suitability for patients with larger body sizes. Furthermore, compared to using hardware and software from the same supplier and without digital health information systems, complexity increases with interoperability between hardware and software, and between different electronic health information systems. Currently, there is a limited capacity to implement these technologies, especially due to the need for threshold selection, and lack of guidance on radiation protection suitable for UP DXR machines. Finally, the respondents stressed the importance of having protected means of sharing patient medical data, as well as comprehensive support and warranty plans. Conclusion Study findings suggest that UP DXR with CAD was overall well received to decentralize radiological assessment for TB, however, the improved portability involved programmatic compromises. The main barriers to uptake included insufficient capacity and lack of guidance on radiation protection suitable for UP DXR.

The COVID-19 pandemic created the need for large-scale testing of populations. However, most laboratories do not have sufficient testing capacity for mass screening. We evaluated pooled testing of samples, as a strategy to increase testing capacity in Lao PDR. Samples of consecutive patients were tested in pools of four using the Xpert Xpress SARS CoV-2 assay. Positive pools were confirmed by individual testing, and we describe the performance of the test and savings achieved. We also diluted selected positive samples to describe its effect on the assays CT values. 1,568 patients were tested in 392 pools of four. 361 (92.1%) pools were negative and 31 (7.9%) positive. 29/31 (93.5% (95%CI 77-99%) positive pools were confirmed by individual testing of the samples but, in 2/31 (6.5%) the four individual samples were negative, suggesting contamination. Pools with only one positive sample had higher CT values (lower RNA concentrations) than the respective individual samples, indicating a dilution effect, which suggested an increased risk of false negative results with dilutions >1:10. However, this risk may be low if the prevalence of infection is high, when pools are more likely to contain more than one positive sample. Pooling saved 67% of cartridges and substantially increased testing capacity. Pooling samples increased SARS-CoV-2 testing capacity and resulted in considerable cartridge savings. Given the need for high-volume testing, countries may consider implementation of pooling for SARS-CoV-2 screening.

Purpose Interventions that can help streamline and reduce gaps in the tuberculosis (TB) care cascade can play crucial roles in TB prevention and care, but are often operationally complex and resource intensive, given the heterogenous settings in which they are implemented. In this study, we present a comparative analysis on cost-effectiveness of TB REACH Wave 5 projects with diverse programmatic objectives to inform future decisions regarding funding, strategic adoption, and scale-up. Methods We comprehensively reviewed project reports and financial statements from TB REACH Wave 5, a funding mechanism for interventions that aimed to strengthen the TB care cascade in diverse settings. Two independent reviewers abstracted cost (in 2017 US dollars) and key programmatic data, including project type (case-finding only; case-finding and linkage-to-care; or case-finding, linkage-to-care and patient support), operational setting (urban or rural), and project outputs (numbers of people with TB diagnosed, started on treatment, and successfully completing treatment). Cost-effectiveness ratios for each project were calculated as ratios of apportioned programmatic expenditures to corresponding project outputs. Results Of 32 case finding and patient support projects funded through TB REACH Wave 5, 29 were included for analysis (11 case-finding only; 9 case-finding and linkage-to-care; and 9 case-finding, linkage-to-care and patient support). 21 projects (72%) were implemented in either Africa or Southeast Asia, and 19 (66%) focused on serving urban areas. Average cost-effectiveness was $184 per case diagnosed (range: $30-$10,497), $332 per diagnosis and treatment initiation ($123-$10,608), and $40 per patient treatment supported ($8-$160). Cost per case diagnosed was lower for case-finding-only projects ($132) than projects including linkage-to-care ($342) or linkage-to-care and patient support ($254), and generally increased with the corresponding country’s per-capita GDP ($543 per $1000 increase, 95% confidence interval: -$53, $1138). Conclusion The costs and cost-effectiveness of interventions to strengthen the TB care cascade were heterogenous, reflecting differences in context and programmatic objective. Nevertheless, many such interventions are likely to offer good value for money. Systematic collection and analysis of cost-effectiveness data can help improve comparability, monitoring, and evaluation.

PurposeInterventions that can help streamline and reduce gaps in the tuberculosis (TB) care cascade can play crucial roles in TB prevention and care, but are often operationally complex and resource intensive, given the heterogenous settings in which they are implemented. In this study, we present a comparative analysis on cost-effectiveness of TB REACH Wave 5 projects with diverse programmatic objectives to inform future decisions regarding funding, strategic adoption, and scale-up.MethodsWe comprehensively reviewed project reports and financial statements from TB REACH Wave 5, a funding mechanism for interventions that aimed to strengthen the TB care cascade in diverse settings. Two independent reviewers abstracted cost (in 2017 US dollars) and key programmatic data, including project type (case-finding only; case-finding and linkage-to-care; or case-finding, linkage-to-care and patient support), operational setting (urban or rural), and project outputs (numbers of people with TB diagnosed, started on treatment, and successfully completing treatment). Cost-effectiveness ratios for each project were calculated as ratios of apportioned programmatic expenditures to corresponding project outputs.ResultsOf 32 case finding and patient support projects funded through TB REACH Wave 5, 29 were included for analysis (11 case-finding only; 9 case-finding and linkage-to-care; and 9 case-finding, linkage-to-care and patient support). 21 projects (72%) were implemented in either Africa or Southeast Asia, and 19 (66%) focused on serving urban areas. Average cost-effectiveness was $184 per case diagnosed (range: $30-$10,497), $332 per diagnosis and treatment initiation ($123-$10,608), and $40 per patient treatment supported ($8-$160). Cost per case diagnosed was lower for case-finding-only projects ($132) than projects including linkage-to-care ($342) or linkage-to-care and patient support ($254), and generally increased with the corresponding country's per-capita GDP ($543 per $1000 increase, 95% confidence interval: -$53, $1138).ConclusionThe costs and cost-effectiveness of interventions to strengthen the TB care cascade were heterogenous, reflecting differences in context and programmatic objective. Nevertheless, many such interventions are likely to offer good value for money. Systematic collection and analysis of cost-effectiveness data can help improve comparability, monitoring, and evaluation.

The COVID-19 pandemic created the need for large-scale testing of populations. However, most laboratories do not have sufficient testing capacity for mass screening. We evaluated pooled testing of samples, as a strategy to increase testing capacity in Lao PDR. Samples of consecutive patients were tested in pools of four using the Xpert Xpress SARS CoV-2 assay. Positive pools were confirmed by individual testing, and we describe the performance of the test and savings achieved. We also diluted selected positive samples to describe its effect on the assays CT values. 1,568 patients were tested in 392 pools of four. 361 (92.1%) pools were negative and 31 (7.9%) positive. 29/31 (93.5% (95%CI 77–99%) positive pools were confirmed by individual testing of the samples but, in 2/31 (6.5%) the four individual samples were negative, suggesting contamination. Pools with only one positive sample had higher CT values (lower RNA concentrations) than the respective individual samples, indicating a dilution effect, which suggested an increased risk of false negative results with dilutions >1:10. However, this risk may be low if the prevalence of infection is high, when pools are more likely to contain more than one positive sample. Pooling saved 67% of cartridges and substantially increased testing capacity. Pooling samples increased SARS-CoV-2 testing capacity and resulted in considerable cartridge savings. Given the need for high-volume testing, countries may consider implementation of pooling for SARS-CoV-2 screening.

BackgroundThe World Health Organization recently recommended Video Observed Therapy (VOT) as one option for monitoring tuberculosis (TB) treatment adherence. There is evidence that private sector TB treatment has substandard treatment follow-up, which could be improved using VOT. However, acceptability of VOT in the private sector has not yet been evaluated.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional survey employing a theoretical framework for healthcare intervention acceptability to measure private provider perceptions of VOT across seven constructs in three cities of Viet Nam: Ha Noi, Ho Chi Minh City, and Hai Phong. We investigated the differences in private providers' attitudes and perceptions of VOT using mixed ordinal models to test for significant differences in responses between groups of providers stratified by their willingness to use VOT.ResultsA total of 79 private providers completed the survey. Sixty-two providers (75%) indicated they would use VOT if given the opportunity. Between private providers who would and would not use VOT, there were statistically significant differences (p≤0.001) in the providers' beliefs that VOT would help identify side effects faster and in their confidence to monitor treatment and provide differentiated care with VOT. There were also significant differences in providers' beliefs that VOT would save them time and money, address problems faced by their patients, benefit their practice and patients, and be relevant for all their patients.ConclusionPrivate providers who completed the survey have positive views towards using VOT and specific subpopulations acknowledge the value of integrating VOT into their practice. Future VOT implementation in the private sector should focus on emphasizing the benefits and relevance of VOT during recruitment and provide programmatic support for implementing differentiated care with the technology.

INTRODUCTION:Over the years, technological and process innovations enabled active case finding (ACF) programs to expand their capacities and scope to have evolved to close gaps in missing TB patients globally. However, with increased ACF program's operational complexity and a need for significant resource commitments, a comprehensive, transparent, and standardized approach in evaluating costs of ACF programs is needed to properly determine costs and value of ACF programs. METHODS:Based on reviews of program activity and financial reports, multiple interviews with program managers of two TB REACH funded ACF programs deployed in Cambodia and Tajikistan, we first identified common program components, which formed the basis of the cost data collection, analysis, reporting framework. Within each program component and sub-activity group, cost data were collected and organized by relevant resource types (human resource, capital, recurrent, and overhead costs). Total shared, indirect and overhead costs were apportioned into each activity category based on direct human resource contribution (e.g. a number of staff and their relative level of effort dedicated to each program component). Capital assets were assessed specific to program components and were annualized based on their expected useful life and a 3% discount rate. All costs were assessed based on the service provider perspective and expressed in 2015 USD. RESULTS:Over the two program years (April 2013 to December 2015), the Cambodia and Tajikistan ACF programs cumulated a total cost of $336,951 and $771,429 to screen 68,846 and 1,980,516 target population, bacteriologically test 4,589 and 19,764 presumptive TB, diagnose 731 and 2,246 TB patients in the respective programs. Recurrent costs were the largest cost components (54% and 34%) of the total costs for the respective programs and Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) testing incurred largest program component/activity cost for both programs. Cost per screening was $0.63 and $0.10 and cost per Xpert test was $25 and $18; Cost per TB case detected (Xpert) was $373 and $343 in Cambodia and Tajikistan. CONCLUSIONS:Results from two contextually and programmatically different multi-component ACF programs demonstrate that our tool is fully capable of comprehensively and transparently evaluating and comparing costs of various ACF programs.

BackgroundIn Bangladesh, about 80% of healthcare is provided by the private sector. Although free diagnosis and care is offered in the public sector, only half of the estimated number of people with tuberculosis are diagnosed, treated, and notified to the national program. Private sector engagement strategies often have been small scale and time limited. We evaluated a Social Enterprise Model combining external funding and income generation at three tuberculosis screening centres across the Dhaka Metropolitan Area for diagnosing and treating tuberculosis.Methods and findingsThe model established three tuberculosis screening centres across Dhaka Metropolitan Area that carried the icddr,b brand and offered free Xpert MTB/RIF tests to patients visiting the screening centres for subsidized, digital chest radiographs from April 2014 to December 2017. A network of private and public health care providers, and community recommendation was formed for patient referral. No financial incentives were offered to physicians for referrals. Revenues from radiography were used to support screening centres' operation. Tuberculosis patients could choose to receive treatment from the private or public sector. Between 2014 and 2017, 1,032 private facilities networked with 8,466 private providers were mapped within the Dhaka Metropolitan Area. 64, 031 patients with TB symptoms were referred by the private providers, public sector and community residents to the three screening centres with 80% coming from private providers. 4,270 private providers made at least one referral. Overall, 10,288 pulmonary and extra-pulmonary tuberculosis cases were detected and 7,695 were bacteriologically positive by Xpert, corresponding to 28% of the total notifications in Dhaka Metropolitan Area.ConclusionThe model established a network of private providers who referred individuals with presumptive tuberculosis without financial incentives to icddr,b's screening centres, facilitating a quarter of total tuberculosis notifications in Dhaka Metropolitan Area. Scaling up this approach may enhance national and international tuberculosis response.

Tuberculosis prevalence surveys have demonstrated the benefit of screening with chest x-ray (CXR) and sensitive diagnostic tests compared to symptoms and smear microscopy. However, in programmatic practice there is little evidence on the yield of different algorithms. We implemented contact tracing in Chennai, India for adult sputum-positive TB patients registered from January 2015 to March 2016. Patients with symptoms or abnormal X-ray findings further underwent testing using Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) and smear microscopy. A retrospective cohort study was done to summarize the key findings. We verbally screened 5553 contacts for symptoms, CXR through private sector collaboration, Xpert, and smear microscopy. Overall, 1312 (23.6%) contacts screened positive. CXR alone identified 531 (40.5%) of them, 679 (51.8%) were symptom-positive only, while 102 (7.8%) were positive on both the symptom and CXR screen. Overall, 35 bacteriologically positive cases were identified (0.7%). A standard approach of symptoms screening followed by microscopy identified only 9 (25.7%) of the total number of bacteriologically positive cases, whereas the combination of a CRX screening followed by microscopy identified 13 (37.1%) of the cases. The algorithm of symptoms screening followed by Xpert testing, detected 20 cases, whereas the combination of symptoms and CXR followed by Xpert increased this number to 35 (75% increase compared to symptoms and Xpert). Optimal use of more sensitive screening tests, better diagnostic tests, and novel private sector engagement can improve diagnostic yield in a programmatic setting.

BACKGROUND:Tuberculosis (TB) is the deadliest infectious disease globally. Current case finding approaches may miss many people with TB or detect them too late. DATA AND METHODS:This study was a retrospective, spatial analysis of routine TB surveillance and cadastral data in Go Vap district, Ho Chi Minh City. We geocoded TB notifications from 2011 to 2015 and calculated theoretical yields of simulated door-to-door screening in three concentric catchment areas (50m, 100m, 200m) and three notification window scenarios (one, two and four quarters) for each index case. We calculated average yields, compared them to published reference values and fit a GEE (Generalized Estimating Equation) linear regression model onto the data. RESULTS:The sample included 3,046 TB patients. Adjusted theoretical yields in 50m, 100m and 200m catchment areas were 0.32% (95%CI: 0.27,0.37), 0.21% (95%CI: 0.14,0.29) and 0.17% (95%CI: 0.09,0.25), respectively, in the baseline notification window scenario. Theoretical yields in the 50m-catchment area for all notification window scenarios were significantly higher than a reference yield from literature. Yield was positively associated with treatment failure index cases (beta = 0.12, p = 0.001) and short-term inter-province migrants (beta = 0.06, p = 0.022), while greater distance to the DTU (beta = -0.02, p

Currently, only 62% of incident tuberculosis (TB) cases are reported to the national programme in Pakistan. Several innovative interventions are being recommended to detect the remaining 'missed' TB cases. One such intervention involved expanding contact investigation to the community using the Xpert MTB/RIF test.This was a before and after intervention study involving retrospective record review. Passive case finding and household contact investigation was routinely done in the pre-intervention period July 2011-June 2013. Four districts with a high concentration of slums were selected as intervention areas; Lahore, Rawalpindi, Faisalabad and Islamabad. Here, in the intervention period, July 2013-June 2015, contact investigation beyond household was conducted: all people staying within a radius of 50 metres (using Geographical Information System) from the household of smear positive TB patients were screened for tuberculosis. Those with presumptive TB were investigated using smear microscopy and the Xpert MTB/RIF test was performed on smear negative patients. All the diagnosed TB patients were linked to TB treatment and care.A total of 783043 contacts were screened for tuberculosis: 23741(3.0%) presumptive TB patients were identified of whom, 4710 (19.8%) all forms and 4084(17.2%) bacteriologically confirmed TB patients were detected. The contribution of Xpert MTB/RIF to bacteriologically confirmed TB patients was 7.6%. The yield among investigated presumptive child TB patients was 5.1%. The overall yield of all forms TB patients among investigated was 22.3% among household and 19.1% in close community. The intervention contributed an increase of case detection of bacteriologically confirmed tuberculosis by 6.8% and all forms TB patients by 7.9%.Community contact investigation beyond household not only detected additional TB patients but also increased TB case detection. However, further long term assessments and cost-effectiveness studies are required before national scale-up.

Screening of household contacts of tuberculosis (TB) patients is a recommended strategy to improve early case detection. While it has been widely implemented in low prevalence countries, the most optimal protocols for contact investigation in high prevalence, low resource settings is yet to be determined. This study evaluated contact investigation interventions in eleven lower and middle income countries and reviewed the association between context or program-related factors and the yield of cases among contacts.We reviewed data from nineteen first wave TB REACH funded projects piloting innovations to improve case detection. These nineteen had fulfilled the eligibility criteria: contact investigation implementation and complete data reporting. We performed a cross-sectional analysis of the percentage yield and case notifications for each project. Implementation strategies were delineated and the association between independent variables and yield was analyzed by fitting a random effects logistic regression.Overall, the nineteen interventions screened 139,052 household contacts, showing great heterogeneity in the percentage yield of microscopy confirmed cases (SS+), ranging from 0.1% to 6.2%). Compared to the most restrictive testing criteria (at least two weeks of cough) the aOR's for lesser (any TB related symptom) and least (all contacts) restrictive testing criteria were 1.71 (95%CI 0.94-3.13) and 6.90 (95% CI 3.42-13.93) respectively. The aOR for inclusion of SS- and extra-pulmonary TB was 0.31 (95% CI 0.15-0.62) compared to restricting index cases to SS+ TB. Contact investigation contributed between

BackgroundGlobally, TB notifications have stagnated since 2007, and sputum smear positive notifications have been declining despite policies to improve case detection. We evaluate results of 28 interventions focused on improving TB case detection.MethodsWe measured additional sputum smear positive cases treated, defined as the intervention area's increase in case notification during the project compared to the previous year. Projects were encouraged to select control areas and collect historical notification data. We used time series negative binomial regression for over-dispersed cross-sectional data accounting for fixed and random effects to test the individual projects' effects on TB notification while controlling for trend and control populations.ResultsTwenty-eight projects, 19 with control populations, completed at least four quarters of case finding activities, covering a population of 89.2 million. Among all projects sputum smear positive (SS+) TB notifications increased 24.9% and annualized notification rates increased from 69.1 to 86.2/100,000 (p = 0.0209) during interventions. Among the 19 projects with control populations, SS+TB case notifications increased 36.9% increase while in the control populations a 3.6% decrease was observed. Fourteen (74%) of the 19 projects' SS+TB notification rates in intervention areas increased from the baseline to intervention period when controlling for historical trends and notifications in control areas.ConclusionsInterventions were associated with large increases in TB notifications across many settings, using an array of interventions. Many people with TB are not reached using current approaches. Different methods and interventions tailored to local realities are urgently needed.

BackgroundIn Pakistan, like many Asian countries, a large proportion of healthcare is provided through the private sector. We evaluated a systematic screening strategy to identify people with tuberculosis in private facilities in Karachi and assessed the approaches' ability to diagnose patients earlier in their disease progression.Methods and findingsLay workers at 89 private clinics and a large hospital outpatient department screened all attendees for tuberculosis using a mobile phone-based questionnaire during one year. The number needed to screen to detect a case of tuberculosis was calculated. To evaluate early diagnosis, we tested for differences in cough duration and smear grading by screening facility. 529,447 people were screened, 1,010 smear-positive tuberculosis cases were detected and 942 (93.3%) started treatment, representing 58.7% of all smear-positive cases notified in the intervention area. The number needed to screen to detect a smear-positive case was 124 (prevalence 806/100,000) at the hospital and 763 (prevalence 131/100,000) at the clinics; however, ten times the number of individuals were screened in clinics. People with smear-positive TB detected at the hospital were less likely to report cough lasting 2-3 weeks (RR 0.66 95%CI [0.49-0.90]) and more likely to report cough duration >3 weeks (RR 1.10 95%CI [1.03-1.18]). Smear-positive cases at the clinics were less likely to have a +3 grade (RR 0.76 95%CI [0.63-0.92]) and more likely to have +1 smear grade (RR 1.24 95%CI [1.02-1.51]).ConclusionsTuberculosis screening at private facilities is acceptable and can yield large numbers of previously undiagnosed cases. Screening at general practitioner clinics may find cases earlier than at hospitals although more people must be screened to identify a case of tuberculosis. Limitations include lack of culture testing, therefore underestimating true TB prevalence. Using more sensitive and specific screening and diagnostic tests such as chest x-ray and Xpert MTB/RIF may improve results.

BackgroundThe potential population-level impact of private-sector initiatives for tuberculosis (TB) case finding in Southeast Asia remains uncertain. In 2011, the Indus Hospital TB Control Program in Karachi, Pakistan, undertook an aggressive case-finding campaign that doubled notification rates, providing an opportunity to investigate potential population-level effects.MethodsWe constructed an age-structured compartmental model of TB in the intervention area. We fit the model using field and literature data, assuming that TB incidence equaled the estimated nationwide incidence in Pakistan (primary analysis), or 1.5 times greater (high-incidence scenario). We modeled the intervention as an increase in the rate of formal-sector TB diagnosis and evaluated the potential impact of sustaining this rate for five years.ResultsIn the primary analysis, the five-year intervention averted 24% (95% uncertainty range, UR: 18-30%) of five-year cumulative TB cases and 52% (95% UR: 45-57%) of cumulative TB deaths. Corresponding reductions in the high-incidence scenario were 12% (95% UR: 8-17%) and 27% (95% UR: 21-34%), although the absolute number of lives saved was higher. At the end of five years, TB notification rates in the primary analysis were below their 2010 baseline, incidence had dropped by 45%, and annual mortality had fallen by 72%. About half of the cumulative impact on incidence and mortality could be achieved with a one-year intervention.ConclusionsSustained, multifaceted, and innovative approaches to TB case-finding in Asian megacities can have substantial community-wide epidemiological impact.