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1. State of the Climate in 2018

Author

Ades, M., Adler, R., Aldeco, Laura S., Alejandra, G., Alfaro, Eric J., Aliaga-Nestares, Vannia, Allan, Richard P., Allan, Rob, Alves, Lincoln M., Amador, Jorge A., Andersen, J. K., Anderson, John, Arndt, Derek S., Arosio, C., Arrigo, Kevin, Azorin-Molina, César, Bardin, M. Yu, Barichivich, Jonathan, Barreira, Sandra, Baxter, Stephen, Beck, H. E., Becker, Andreas, Bell, Gerald D., Bellouin, Nicolas, Belmont, M., Benedetti, Angela, Benedict, Imme, Bernhard, G. H., Berrisford, Paul, Berry, David I., Bettio, Lynette, Bhatt, U. S., Biskaborn, B. K., Bissolli, Peter, Bjella, Kevin L., Bjerke, J. K., Blake, Eric S., Blenkinsop, Stephen, Blunden, Jessica, Bock, Olivier, Bosilovich, Michael G., Boucher, Olivier, Box, J. E., Boyer, Tim, Braathen, Geir, Bringas, Francis G., Bromwich, David H., Brown, Alrick, Brown, R., Brown, Timothy J., Buehler, S. A., Cáceres, Luis, Calderón, Blanca, Camargo, Suzana J., Campbell, Jayaka D., Campos Diaz, Diego A., Cappelen, J., Carrea, Laura, Carrier, Seth B., Carter, Brendan R., Castro, Anabel Y., Cetinic, Ivona, Chambers, Don P., Chen, Lin, Cheng, Lijing, Cheng, Vincent Y.S., Christiansen, Hanne H., Christy, John R., Chung, E. S., Claus, Federico, Clem, Kyle R., Coelho, Caio A.S., Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie, Colwell, Steve, Cooper, Owen R., Cosca, Cathy, Covey, Curt, Coy, Lawrence, Dávila, Cristina P., Davis, Sean M., de Eyto, Elvira, de Jeu, Richard A.M., De Laat, Jos, Decharme, B., Degasperi, Curtis L., Degenstein, Doug, Demircan, Mesut, Derksen, C., Dhurmea, K. R., Di Girolamo, Larry, Diamond, Howard J., Diaz, Eliecer, Diniz, Fransisco A., Dlugokencky, Ed J., Dohan, Kathleen, Dokulil, Martin T., Dolman, A. Johannes, Domingues, Catia M., Domingues, Ricardo, Donat, Markus G., Dorigo, Wouter A., Drozdov, D. S., Druckenmiller, Matthew L., Dunn, Robert J.H., Durre, Imke, Dutton, Geoff S., Elkharrim, M., Elkins, James W., Epstein, H. E., Espinoza, Jhan C., Famiglietti, James S., Farrell, Sinead L., Fausto, R. S., Feely, Richard A., Feng, Z., Fenimore, Chris, Fettweis, X., Fioletov, Vitali E., Flemming, Johannes, Fogt, Ryan L., Forbes, B. C., Foster, Michael J., Francis, S. D., Franz, Bryan A., Frey, Richard A., Frith, Stacey M., Froidevaux, Lucien, Ganter, Catherine, Garforth, J., Gerland, Sebastian, Gilson, John, Gleason, Karin, Gobron, Nadine, Goetz, S., Goldenberg, Stanley B., Goni, Gustavo, Gray, Alison, Grooß, Jens Uwe, Gruber, Alexander, Gu, Guojun, Guard, Charles Chip P., Gupta, S. K., Gutiérrez, Dimitri, Haas, Christian, Hagos, S., Hahn, Sebastian, Haimberger, Leo, Hall, Brad D., Halpert, Michael S., Hamlington, Benjamin D., Hanna, E., Hanssen-Bauer, I., Harris, Ian, Hazeleger, Wilco, He, Q., Heidinger, Andrew K., Heim, Richard R., Hemming, D. L., Hendricks, Stefan, Hernández, Rafael, Hersbach, H. E., Hidalgo, Hugo G., Ho, Shu Peng Ben, Holmes, R. M., Hu, Chuanmin, Huang, Boyin, Hubbard, Katherine, Hubert, Daan, Hurst, Dale F., Ialongo, Iolanda, Ijampy, J. A., Inness, Antje, Isaac, Victor, Isaksen, K., Ishii, Masayoshi, Jeffries, Martin O., Jevrejeva, Svetlana, Jia, G., Jiménez, C., Jin, Xiangze, John, Viju, Johnsen, Bjørn, Johnson, Gregory C., Johnson, Kenneth S., Johnson, Bryan, Jones, Philip D., Jumaux, Guillaume, Kabidi, Khadija, Kaiser, J. W., Karaköylü, Erdem M., Karlsen, S. R., Karnauskas, Mandy, Kato, Seiji, Kazemi, A. Fazl, Kelble, Christopher, Keller, Linda M., Kennedy, John, Kholodov, A. L., Khoshkam, Mahbobeh, Kidd, R., Killick, Rachel, Kim, Hyungjun, Kim, S. J., King, A. D., King, Brian A., Kipling, Z., Klotzbach, Philip J., Knaff, John A., Korhonen, Johanna, Korshunova, Natalia N., Kramarova, Natalya A., Kratz, D. P., Kruger, Andries, Kruk, Michael C., Krumpen, Thomas, Labbé, L., Ladd, C., Lakatos, Mónika, Lakkala, Kaisa, Lander, Mark A., Landschützer, Peter, Landsea, Chris W., Lareau, Neil P., Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo, Lazzara, Matthew A., Lee, T. C., Leuliette, Eric, L’heureux, Michelle, Li, Bailing, Li, Tim, Lieser, Jan L., Lim, J. Y., Lin, I. I., Liu, Hongxing, Locarnini, Ricardo, Loeb, Norman G., Long, Craig S., López, Luis A., Lorrey, Andrew M., Loyola, Diego, Lumpkin, Rick, Luo, Jing Jia, Luojus, K., Lyman, John M., Malkova, G. V., Manney, Gloria L., Marchenko, S. S., Marengo, José A., Marin, Dora, Marquardt Collow, Allison B., Marra, John J., Marszelewski, Wlodzimierz, Martens, B., Martínez-Güingla, Rodney, Massom, Robert A., May, Linda, Mayer, Michael, Mazloff, Matthew, McBride, Charlotte, McCabe, M., McClelland, J. W., McEvoy, Daniel J., McGree, Simon, McVicar, Tim R., Mears, Carl A., Meier, Walt, Meijers, Andrew, Mekonnen, Ademe, Mengistu Tsidu, G., Menzel, W. Paul, Merchant, Christopher J., Meredith, Michael P., Merrifield, Mark A., Miller, Ben, Miralles, Diego G., Misevicius, Noelia, Mitchum, Gary T., Mochizuki, Y., Monselesan, Didier, Montzka, Stephen A., Mora, Natali, Morice, Colin, Mosquera-Vásquez, Kobi, Mostafa, Awatif E., Mote, T., Mudryk, L., Mühle, Jens, Mullan, A. Brett, Müller, Rolf, Myneni, R., Nash, Eric R., Nauslar, Nicholas J., Nerem, R. Steven, Newman, Paul A., Nicolas, Julien P., Nieto, Juan José, Noetzli, Jeannette, Osborn, Tim J., Osborne, Emily, Overland, J., Oyunjargal, Lamjav, Park, T., Pasch, Richard J., Pascual Ramírez, Reynaldo, Pastor Saavedra, Maria Asuncion, Paterson, Andrew M., Pearce, Petra R., Pelto, Mauri S., Perovich, Don, Petropavlovskikh, Irina, Pezza, Alexandre B., Phillips, C., Phillips, David, Phoenix, G., Pinty, Bernard, Pitts, Michael, Po-Chedley, S., Polashenski, Chris, Preimesberger, W., Purkey, Sarah G., Quispe, Nelson, Rajeevan, Madhavan, Rakotoarimalala, C. L., Ramos, Andrea M., Ramos, Isabel, Randel, W., Raynolds, M. K., Reagan, James, Reid, Phillip, Reimer, Christoph, Rémy, Samuel, Revadekar, Jayashree V., Richardson, A. D., Richter-Menge, Jacqueline, Ricker, Robert, Ripaldi, A., Robinson, David A., Rodell, Matthew, Rodriguez Camino, Ernesto, Romanovsky, Vladimir E., Ronchail, Josyane, Rosenlof, Karen H., Rösner, Benajamin, Roth, Chris, Rozanov, A., Rusak, James A., Rustemeier, Elke, Rutishäuser, T., Sallée, Jean Baptiste, Sánchez-Lugo, Ahira, Santee, Michelle L., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayouri, Amal, Scambos, Ted A., Scanlon, T., Scardilli, Alvaro S., Schenzinger, Verena, Schladow, S. Geoffey, Schmid, Claudia, Schmid, Martin, Schoeneich, P., Schreck, Carl J., Selkirk, H. B., Sensoy, Serhat, Shi, Lei, Shiklomanov, A. I., Shiklomanov, Nikolai I., Shimpo, A., Shuman, Christopher A., Siegel, David A., Sima, Fatou, Simmons, Adrian J., Smeets, C. J.P.P., Smith, Adam, Smith, Sharon L., Soden, B., Sofieva, Viktoria, Sparks, T. H., Spence, Jacqueline, Spencer, R. G.M., Spillane, Sandra, Srivastava, A. K., Stabeno, P. J., Stackhouse, Paul W., Stammerjohn, Sharon, Stanitski, Diane M., Steinbrecht, Wolfgang, Stella, José L., Stengel, M., Stephenson, Tannecia S., Strahan, Susan E., Streeter, Casey, Streletskiy, Dimitri A., Sun-Mack, Sunny, Suslova, A., Sutton, Adrienne J., Swart, Sebastiann, Sweet, William, Takahashi, Kenneth S., Tank, S. E., Taylor, Michael A., Tedesco, M., Thackeray, S. J., Thompson, Philip R., Timbal, Bertrand, Timmermans, M. L., Tobin, Skie, Tømmervik, H., Tourpali, Kleareti, Trachte, Katja, Tretiakov, M., Trewin, Blair C., Triñanes, Joaquin A., Trotman, Adrian R., Tschudi, Mark, Tye, Mari R., van As, D., van de Wal, R. S.W., van der A, Ronald J., van der Schalie, Robin, van der Schrier, Gerard, van der Werf, Guido R., van Heerwaarden, Chiel, Van Meerbeeck, Cedric J., Verburg, Piet, Vieira, G., Vincent, Lucie A., Vömel, Holger, Vose, Russell S., Walker, D. A., Walsh, J. E., Wang, Bin, Wang, Hui, Wang, Lei, Wang, M., Wang, Mengqiu, Wang, Ray, Wang, Sheng Hung, Wanninkhof, Rik, Watanabe, Shohei, Weber, Mark, Webster, Melinda, Weerts, Albrecht, Weller, Robert A., Westberry, Toby K., Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A., Widlansky, Matthew J., Wijffels, Susan E., Wilber, Anne C., Wild, Jeanette D., Willett, Kate M., Wong, Takmeng, Wood, E. F., Woolway, R. Iestyn, Xue, Yan, Yin, Xungang, Yu, Lisan, Zambrano, Eduardo, Zeyaeyan, Sadegh, Zhang, Huai Min, Zhang, Peiqun, Zhao, Guanguo, Zhao, Lin, Zhou, Xinjia, Zhu, Zhiwei, Ziemke, Jerry R., Ziese, Markus, Andersen, Andrea, Griffin, Jessicca, Hammer, Gregory, Love-Brotak, S. Elizabeth, Misch, Deborah J., Riddle, Deborah B., Veasey, Sara W., Processus et interactions de fine échelle océanique (PROTEO), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Berry, David, Jevrejeva, Svetlana, King, Brian, and Domingues, Catia

Subjects
Surface (mathematics), Atmospheric Science, Materials science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0207 environmental engineering, Mineralogy, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, ComputingMethodologies_DOCUMENTANDTEXTPROCESSING, SDG 13 - Climate Action, SDG 14 - Life Below Water, 020701 environmental engineering, GeneralLiterature_REFERENCE(e.g.,dictionaries,encyclopedias,glossaries), ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year's end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981-2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June's Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°-0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000-18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981-2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir-Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael's landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and $6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14-15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000-10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars).

Published
2019
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2. State of the climate in 2016

Author

Aaron-Morrison, A. P., Ackerman, S. A., Adams, N. G., Adler, R. F., Albanil, A., Alfaro, E. J., Allan, R., Alves, L. M., Amador, J. A., Andreassen, L. M., Arendt, A., Arévalo, J., Arndt, D. S., Arzhanova, N. M., Aschan, M. M., Azorin-Molina, C., Banzon, V., Bardin, M. U., Barichivich, J., Baringer, M. O., Barreira, S., Baxter, S., Bazo, J., Becker, A., Bedka, K. M., Behrenfeld, M. J., Bell, G. D., Belmont, M., Benedetti, A., Bernhard, G., Berrisford, P., Berry, D. I., Bettolli, M. L., Bhatt, U. S., Bidegain, M., Bill, B. D., Billheimer, S., Bissolli, P., Blake, E. S., Blunden, J., Bosilovich, M. G., Boucher, O., Boudet, D., Box, J. E., Boyer, T., Braathen, G. O., Bromwich, D. H., Brown, R., Bulygina, O. N., Burgess, D., Calderón, B., Camargo, S. J., Campbell, J. D., Cappelen, J., Carrasco, G., Carter, B. R., Chambers, D. P., Chandler, E., Christiansen, H. H., Christy, J. R., Chung, D., Chung, E. S., Cinque, K., Clem, K. R., Coelho, C. A., Cogley, J. G., Coldewey-Egbers, M., Colwell, S., Cooper, O. R., Copland, L., Cosca, C. E., Cross, J. N., Crotwell, M. J., Crouch, J., Davis, S. M., Eyto, E., Jeu, R. A. M., Laat, J., Degasperi, C. L., Degenstein, D., Demircan, M., Derksen, C., Destin, D., Di Girolamo, L., Di Giuseppe, F., Diamond, H. J., Dlugokencky, E. J., Dohan, K., Dokulil, M. T., Dolgov, A. V., Dolman, A. J., Domingues, C. M., Donat, M. G., Dong, S., Dorigo, W. A., Dortch, Q., Doucette, G., Drozdov, D. S., Ducklow, H., Dunn, R. J. H., Durán-Quesada, A. M., Dutton, G. S., Ebrahim, A., Elkharrim, M., Elkins, J. W., Espinoza, J. C., Etienne-Leblanc, S., Evans, T. E., Famiglietti, J. S., Farrell, S., Fateh, S., Fausto, R. S., Fedaeff, N., Feely, R. A., Feng, Z., Fenimore, C., Fettweis, X., Fioletov, V. E., Flemming, J., Fogarty, C. T., Fogt, R. L., Folland, C., Fonseca, C., Fossheim, M., Foster, M. J., Fountain, A., Francis, S. D., Franz, B. A., Frey, R. A., Frith, S. M., Froidevaux, L., Ganter, C., Garzoli, S., Gerland, S., Gobron, N., Goldenberg, S. B., Gomez, R. S., Goni, G., Goto, A., Grooß, J. U., Gruber, A., Guard, C. C., Gugliemin, M., Gupta, S. K., Gutiérrez, J. M., Hagos, S., Hahn, S., Haimberger, L., Hakkarainen, J., Hall, B. D., Halpert, M. S., Hamlington, B. D., Hanna, E., Hansen, K., Hanssen-Bauer, I., Harris, I., Heidinger, A. K., Heikkilä, A., Heil, A., Heim, R. R., Hendricks, S., Hernández, M., Hidalgo, H. G., Hilburn, K., Ho, S. P. B., Holmes, R. M., Hu, Z. Z., Huang, B., Huelsing, H. K., Huffman, G. J., Hughes, C., Hurst, D. F., Ialongo, I., Ijampy, J. A., Ingvaldsen, R. B., Inness, A., Isaksen, K., Ishii, M., Jevrejeva, S., Jiménez, C., Jin, X., Johannesen, E., John, V., Johnsen, B., Johnson, B., Johnson, G. C., Jones, P. D., Joseph, A. C., Jumaux, G., Kabidi, K., Kaiser, J. W., Kato, S., Kazemi, A., Keller, L. M., Kendon, M., Kennedy, J., Kerr, K., Kholodov, A. L., Khoshkam, M., Killick, R., Kim, H., Kim, S. J., Kimberlain, T. B., Klotzbach, P. J., Knaff, J. A., Kobayashi, S., Kohler, J., Korhonen, J., Korshunova, N. N., Kovacs, K. M., Kramarova, N., Kratz, D. P., Kruger, A., Kruk, M. C., Kudela, R., Kumar, A., Lakatos, M., Lakkala, K., Lander, M. A., Landsea, C. W., Lankhorst, M., Lantz, K., Lazzara, M. A., Lemons, P., Leuliette, E., L’heureux, M., Lieser, J. L., Lin, I. I., Liu, H., Liu, Y., Locarnini, R., Loeb, N. G., Lo Monaco, C., Long, C. S., López Álvarez, L. A., Lorrey, A. M., Loyola, D., Lumpkin, R., Luo, J. J., Luojus, K., Lydersen, C., Lyman, J. M., Maberly, S. C., Maddux, B. C., Malheiros Ramos, A., Malkova, G. V., Manney, G., Marcellin, V., Marchenko, S. S., Marengo, J. A., Marra, J. J., Marszelewski, W., Martens, B., Martínez-Güingla, R., Massom, R. A., Mata, M. M., Mathis, J. T., May, L., Mayer, M., Mazloff, M., Mcbride, C., Mccabe, M. F., Mccarthy, M., Mcclelland, J. W., Mcgree, S., Mcvicar, T. R., Mears, C. A., Meier, W., Meinen, C. S., Mekonnen, A., Menéndez, M., Mengistu Tsidu, G., Menzel, W. P., Merchant, C. J., Meredith, M. P., Merrifield, M. A., Metzl, N., Minnis, P., Miralles, D. G., Mistelbauer, T., Mitchum, G. T., Monselesan, D., Monteiro, P., Montzka, S. A., Morice, C., Mote, T., Mudryk, L., Mühle, J., Mullan, A. B., Nash, E. R., Naveira-Garabato, A. C., Nerem, R. S., Newman, P. A., Nieto, J. J., Noetzli, J., O’neel, S., Osborn, T. J., Overland, J., Oyunjargal, L., Parinussa, R. M., Park, E. H., Parker, D., Parrington, M., Parsons, A. R., Pasch, R. J., Pascual-Ramírez, R., Paterson, A. M., Paulik, C., Pearce, P. R., Pelto, M. S., Peng, L., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., Perovich, D., Petropavlovskikh, I., Pezza, A. B., Phillips, D., Pinty, B., Pitts, M. C., Pons, M. R., Porter, A. O., Primicerio, R., Proshutinsky, A., Quegan, S., Quintana, J., Rahimzadeh, F., Rajeevan, M., Randriamarolaza, L., Razuvaev, V. N., Reagan, J., Reid, P., Reimer, C., Rémy, S., Renwick, J. A., Revadekar, J. V., Richter-Menge, J., Riffler, M., Rimmer, A., Rintoul, S., Robinson, D. A., Rodell, M., Rodríguez Solís, J. L., Romanovsky, V. E., Ronchail, J., Rosenlof, K. H., Roth, C., Rusak, J. A., Sabine, C. L., Sallée, J. B., Sánchez-Lugo, A., Santee, M. L., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayouri, A., Scambos, T. A., Schemm, J., Schladow, S. G., Schmid, C., Schmid, M., Schmidtko, S., Schreck, C. J., Selkirk, H. B., Send, U., Sensoy, S., Setzer, A., Sharp, M., Shaw, A., Shi, L., Shiklomanov, A. I., Shiklomanov, N. I., Siegel, D. A., Signorini, S. R., Sima, F., Simmons, A. J., Smeets, C. J. P. P., Smith, S. L., Spence, J. M., Srivastava, A. K., Stackhouse, P. W., Stammerjohn, S., Steinbrecht, W., Stella, J. L., Stengel, M., Stennett-Brown, R., Stephenson, T. S., Strahan, S., Streletskiy, D. A., Sun-Mack, S., Swart, S., Sweet, W., Talley, L. D., Tamar, G., Tank, S. E., Taylor, M. A., Tedesco, M., Teubner, K., Thoman, R. L., Thompson, P., Thomson, L., Timmermans, M. L., Maxim Timofeyev, Tirnanes, J. A., Tobin, S., Trachte, K., Trainer, V. L., Tretiakov, M., Trewin, B. C., Trotman, A. R., Tschudi, M., As, D., Wal, R. S. W., A, R. J., Schalie, R., Schrier, G., Werf, G. R., Meerbeeck, C. J., Velicogna, I., Verburg, P., Vigneswaran, B., Vincent, L. A., Volkov, D., Vose, R. S., Wagner, W., Wåhlin, A., Wahr, J., Walsh, J., Wang, C., Wang, J., Wang, L., Wang, M., Wang, S. H., Wanninkhof, R., Watanabe, S., Weber, M., Weller, R. A., Weyhenmeyer, G. A., Whitewood, R., Wijffels, S. E., Wilber, A. C., Wild, J. D., Willett, K. M., Williams, M. J. M., Willie, S., Wolken, G., Wong, T., Wood, E. F., Woolway, R. I., Wouters, B., Xue, Y., Yamada, R., Yim, S. Y., Yin, X., Young, S. H., Yu, L., Zahid, H., Zambrano, E., Zhang, P., Zhao, G., Zhou, L., Ziemke, J. R., Love-Brotak, S. E., Gilbert, K., Maycock, T., Osborne, S., Sprain, M., Veasey, S. W., Ambrose, B. J., Griffin, J., Misch, D. J., Riddle, D. B., Young, T., Macias Fauria, M, Blunden, J, Arndt, D, Earth and Climate, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Clinical Developmental Psychology, Climate Change and Landscape Dynamics, and Molecular Cell Physiology

Subjects
Meteor (satellite), Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0208 environmental biotechnology, 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, 020801 environmental engineering, Geography, 13. Climate action, Climatology, SDG 13 - Climate Action, SDG 14 - Life Below Water, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.

Published
2017
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3. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wild␣re: an expert assessment

Author

Abbott, B. W., Jones, J. B., Schuur, E. A. G., Chapin, F. S., Bowden, W. B., Bret-Harte, M. S., Epstein, H. E., Flannigan, M. D., Harms, T. K., Hollingsworth, T. N., Mack, M. C., Mcguire, A. D., Natali, S. M., Rocha, A. V., Tank, S. E., Turetsky, M. R., Vonk, J. E., Wickland, K. P., Aiken, G. R., Alexander, H. D., Amon, R. M. W., Benscoter, B. W., Bergeron, Y., Bishop, K., Blarquez, O., Bond-Lamberty, B., Breen, A. L., Buffam, I., Cai, Y. H., Christopher Carcaillet, Carey, S. K., Chen, J. M., Chen, H. Y. H., Christensen, T. R., Cooper, L. W., Cornelissen, J. H. C., Groot, W. J., Deluca, T. H., Dorrepaal, E., Fetcher, N., Finlay, J. C., Forbes, B. C., French, N. H. F., Gauthier, S., Girardin, M. P., Goetz, S. J., Goldammer, J. G., Gough, L., Grogan, P., Guo, L. D., Higuera, P. E., Hinzman, L., Hu, F. S., Hugelius, G., Jafarov, E. E., Jandt, R., Johnstone, J. F., Karlsson, J., Kasischke, E. S., Kattner, G., Kelly, R., Keuper, F., Kling, G. W., Kortelainen, P., Kouki, J., Kuhry, P., Laudon, H., Laurion, I., Macdonald, R. W., Mann, P. J., Martikainen, P. J., Mcclelland, J. W., Molau, U., Oberbauer, S. F., Olefeldt, D., Pare, D., Parisien, M. A., Payette, S., Peng, C. H., Pokrovsky, O. S., Rastetter, E. B., Raymond, P. A., Raynolds, M. K., Rein, G., Reynolds, J. F., Robards, M., Rogers, B. M., Schadel, C., Schaefer, K., Schmidt, I. K., Shvidenko, A., Sky, J., Spencer, R. G. M., Starr, G., Striegl, R. G., Teisserenc, R., Tranvik, L. J., Virtanen, T., Welker, J. M., Zimov, S., Institute of Arctic Biology and Department of Biology & Wildlife, University of Alaska [Fairbanks] (UAF), Ecosystèmes, biodiversité, évolution [Rennes] (ECOBIO), Université de Rennes 1 (UR1), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Institut Ecologie et Environnement (INEE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Rennes (OSUR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire d'Ecologie des Hydrosystèmes Naturels et Anthropisés (LEHNA), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État (ENTPE), McMaster University [Hamilton, Ontario], 955713, National Science Foundation, OPP-0806394, Office of Polar Programs, Future Forest (Mistra), SITES (Swedish Science Foundation), TOMCAR-Permafrost #277059, Marie Curie International Reintegration, Institute of Arctic Biology, Université de Rennes (UR)-Institut Ecologie et Environnement (INEE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Rennes (OSUR), Université de Rennes (UR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État (ENTPE)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Rennes (OSUR)-Institut Ecologie et Environnement (INEE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Rennes 1 (UR1), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES), Earth and Climate, Systems Ecology, Amsterdam Global Change Institute, Environmental Sciences, Tarmo Virtanen / Principal Investigator, and Environmental Change Research Unit (ECRU)

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Biomass, F800, SEQUESTRATION, Permafrost, 01 natural sciences, FIRE, wildfire, Klimatforskning, Arctic, вечная мерзлота, Dissolved organic carbon, ECOSYSTEMS, SDG 13 - Climate Action, boreal, General Environmental Science, Total organic carbon, ARCTIC TUNDRA, CLIMATE-CHANGE, Carbon, Climate change, Miljövetenskap, Permafrost carbon cycle, Earth and Related Environmental Sciences, STORAGE, углеродный баланс, particulate organic carbon, Climate Research, permafrost carbon, Soil science, 010603 evolutionary biology, BOREAL FOREST, биомасса, Ecosystem, SDG 14 - Life Below Water, 1172 Environmental sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, INTERIOR ALASKA, coastal erosion, Hydrology, VULNERABILITY, NITROGEN DEPOSITION, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, coastal erosion Supplementary material for this article is available, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap, 15. Life on land, dissolved organic carbon, Tundra, 13. Climate action, Soil water, Environmental science, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Environmental Sciences
Abstract

CT3 ; EnjS4; International audience; As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wild␣re, and hydrologic carbon ␣ux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identi␣ed water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous ␣ndings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.

Published
2016
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4. State of the Climate in 2014

Author

Aaron-Morrison, Arlene P., Ackerman, Steven A., Adams, Nicolaus G., Adler, Robert F., Albanil, Adelina, Alfaro, E. J., Allan, Rob, Alves, Lincoln M., Amador, Jorge A., Andreassen, L. M., Arendt, A., Arévalo, Juan, Arndt, Derek S., Arzhanova, N. M., Aschan, M. M., Azorin-Molina, César, Banzon, Viva, Bardin, M. U., Barichivich, Jonathan, Baringer, Molly O., Barreira, Sandra, Baxter, Stephen, Bazo, Juan, Becker, Andreas, Bedka, Kristopher M., Behrenfeld, Michael J., Bell, Gerald D., Belmont, M., Benedetti, Angela, Bernhard, G., Berrisford, Paul, Berry, David I., Bettolli, María L., Bhatt, U. S., Bidegain, Mario, Bill, Brian D., Billheimer, Sam, Bissolli, Peter, Blake, Eric S., Blunden, Jessica, Bosilovich, Michael G., Boucher, Olivier, Boudet, Dagne, Box, J. E., Boyer, Tim, Braathen, Geir O., Bromwich, David H., Brown, R., Bulygina, Olga N., Burgess, D., Calderón, Blanca, Camargo, Suzana J., Campbell, Jayaka D., Cappelen, J., Carrasco, Gualberto, Carter, Brendan R., Chambers, Don P., Chandler, Elise, Christiansen, Hanne H., Christy, John R., Chung, Daniel, Chung, E. S., Cinque, Kathy, Clem, Kyle R., Coelho, Caio A., Cogley, J. G., Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie, Colwell, Steve, Cooper, Owen R., Copland, L., Cosca, Catherine E., Cross, Jessica N., Crotwell, Molly J., Crouch, Jake, Davis, Sean M., De Eyto, Elvira, De Jeu, Richard A.M., De Laat, Jos, Degasperi, Curtis L., Degenstein, Doug, Demircan, M., Derksen, C., Destin, Dale, Di Girolamo, Larry, Di Giuseppe, F., Diamond, Howard J., Dlugokencky, Ed J., Dohan, Kathleen, Dokulil, Martin T., Dolgov, A. V., Dolman, A. Johannes, Domingues, Catia M., Donat, Markus G., Dong, Shenfu, Dorigo, Wouter A., Dortch, Quay, Doucette, Greg, Drozdov, D. S., Ducklow, Hugh, Dunn, Robert J.H., Durán-Quesada, Ana M., Dutton, Geoff S., Ebrahim, A., Elkharrim, M., Elkins, James W., Espinoza, Jhan C., Etienne-Leblanc, Sheryl, Evans, Thomas E., Famiglietti, James S., Farrell, S., Fateh, S., Fausto, Robert S., Fedaeff, Nava, Feely, Richard A., Feng, Z., Fenimore, Chris, Fettweis, X., Fioletov, Vitali E., Flemming, Johannes, Fogarty, Chris T., Fogt, Ryan L., Folland, Chris, Fonseca, C., Fossheim, M., Foster, Michael J., Fountain, Andrew, Francis, S. D., Franz, Bryan A., Frey, Richard A., Frith, Stacey M., Froidevaux, Lucien, Ganter, Catherine, Garzoli, Silvia, Gerland, S., Gobron, Nadine, Goldenberg, Stanley B., Gomez, R. Sorbonne, Goni, Gustavo, Goto, A., Grooß, J. U., Gruber, Alexander, Guard, Charles Chip, Gugliemin, Mauro, Gupta, S. K., Gutiérrez, J. M., Hagos, S., Hahn, Sebastian, Haimberger, Leo, Hakkarainen, J., Hall, Brad D., Halpert, Michael S., Hamlington, Benjamin D., Hanna, E., Hansen, K., Hanssen-Bauer, I., Harris, Ian, Heidinger, Andrew K., Heikkilä, A., Heil, A., Heim, Richard R., Hendricks, S., Hernández, Marieta, Hidalgo, Hugo G., Hilburn, Kyle, Ho, Shu Peng Ben, Holmes, R. M., Hu, Zeng Zhen, Huang, Boyin, Huelsing, Hannah K., Huffman, George J., Hughes, C., Hurst, Dale F., Ialongo, I., Ijampy, J. A., Ingvaldsen, R. B., Inness, Antje, Isaksen, K., Ishii, Masayoshi, Jevrejeva, Svetlana, Jiménez, C., Jin, Xiangze, Johannesen, E., John, Viju, Johnsen, B., Johnson, Bryan, Johnson, Gregory C., Jones, Philip D., Joseph, Annie C., Jumaux, Guillaume, Kabidi, Khadija, Kaiser, Johannes W., Kato, Seiji, Kazemi, A., Keller, Linda M., Kendon, Mike, Kennedy, John, Kerr, Kenneth, Kholodov, A. L., Khoshkam, Mahbobeh, Killick, Rachel, Kim, Hyungjun, Kim, S. J., Kimberlain, Todd B., Klotzbach, Philip J., Knaff, John A., Kobayashi, Shinya, Kohler, J., Korhonen, Johanna, Korshunova, Natalia N., Kovacs, K. M., Kramarova, Natalya, Kratz, D. P., Kruger, Andries, Kruk, Michael C., Kudela, Raphael, Kumar, Arun, Lakatos, M., Lakkala, K., Lander, Mark A., Landsea, Chris W., Lankhorst, Matthias, Lantz, Kathleen, Lazzara, Matthew A., Lemons, P., Leuliette, Eric, L’Heureux, Michelle, Lieser, Jan L., Lin, I. I., Liu, Hongxing, Liu, Yinghui, Locarnini, Ricardo, Loeb, Norman G., Lo Monaco, Claire, Long, Craig S., López Álvarez, Luis Alfonso, Lorrey, Andrew M., Loyola, Diego, Lumpkin, Rick, Luo, Jing Jia, Luojus, K., Lydersen, C., Lyman, John M., Maberly, Stephen C., Maddux, Brent C., Malheiros Ramos, Andrea, Malkova, G. V., Manney, G., Marcellin, Vernie, Marchenko, S. S., Marengo, José A., Marra, John J., Marszelewski, Wlodzimierz, Martens, B., Martínez-Güingla, Rodney, Massom, Robert A., Mata, Mauricio M., Mathis, Jeremy T., May, Linda, Mayer, Michael, Mazloff, Matthew, McBride, Charlotte, McCabe, M. F., McCarthy, M., McClelland, J. W., McGree, Simon, McVicar, Tim R., Mears, Carl A., Meier, W., Meinen, Christopher S., Mekonnen, A., Menéndez, Melisa, Mengistu Tsidu, G., Menzel, W. Paul, Merchant, Christopher J., Meredith, Michael P., Merrifield, Mark A., Metzl, N., Minnis, Patrick, Miralles, Diego G., Mistelbauer, T., Mitchum, Gary T., Monselesan, Didier, Monteiro, Pedro, Montzka, Stephen A., Morice, Colin, Mote, T., Mudryk, L., Mühle, Jens, Mullan, A. Brett, Nash, Eric R., Naveira-Garabato, Alberto C., Nerem, R. Steven, Newman, Paul A., Nieto, Juan José, Noetzli, Jeannette, O’Neel, S., Osborn, Tim J., Overland, J., Oyunjargal, Lamjav, Parinussa, Robert M., Park, E. Hyung, Parker, David, Parrington, M., Parsons, A. Rost, Pasch, Richard J., Pascual-Ramírez, Reynaldo, Paterson, Andrew M., Paulik, Christoph, Pearce, Petra R., Pelto, Mauri S., Peng, Liang, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Perovich, D., Petropavlovskikh, Irina, Pezza, Alexandre B., Phillips, David, Pinty, Bernard, Pitts, Michael C., Pons, M. R., Porter, Avalon O., Primicerio, R., Proshutinsky, A., Quegan, Sean, Quintana, Juan, Rahimzadeh, Fatemeh, Rajeevan, Madhavan, Randriamarolaza, L., Razuvaev, Vyacheslav N., Reagan, James, Reid, Phillip, Reimer, Christoph, Rémy, Samuel, Renwick, James A., Revadekar, Jayashree V., Richter-Menge, J., Riffler, Michael, Rimmer, Alon, Rintoul, Steve, Robinson, David A., Rodell, Matthew, Rodríguez Solís, José L., Romanovsky, Vladimir E., Ronchail, Josyane, Rosenlof, Karen H., Roth, Chris, Rusak, James A., Sabine, Christopher L., Sallée, Jean Bapiste, Sánchez-Lugo, Ahira, Santee, Michelle L., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayouri, Amal, Scambos, Ted A., Schemm, Jae, Schladow, S. Geoffrey, Schmid, Claudia, Schmid, Martin, Schmidtko, Sunke, Schreck, Carl J., Selkirk, H. B., Send, Uwe, Sensoy, Serhat, Setzer, Alberto, Sharp, M., Shaw, Adrian, Shi, Lei, Shiklomanov, A. I., Shiklomanov, Nikolai I., Siegel, David A., Signorini, Sergio R., Sima, Fatou, Simmons, Adrian J., Smeets, C. J.P.P., Smith, Sharon L., Spence, Jaqueline M., Srivastava, A. K., Stackhouse, Paul W., Stammerjohn, Sharon, Steinbrecht, Wolfgang, Stella, José L., Stengel, Martin, Stennett-Brown, Roxann, Stephenson, Tannecia S., Strahan, Susan, Streletskiy, D. A., Sun-Mack, Sunny, Swart, Sebastiaan, Sweet, William, Talley, Lynne D., Tamar, Gerard, Tank, S. E., Taylor, Michael A., Tedesco, M., Teubner, Katrin, Thoman, R. L., Thompson, Philip, Thomson, L., Timmermans, M. L., Tirnanes, Joaquin A., Tobin, Skie, Trachte, Katja, Trainer, Vera L., Tretiakov, M., Trewin, Blair C., Trotman, Adrian R., Tschudi, M., Van As, D., Van De Wal, R. S.W., van der A., Ronald J., Van Der Schalie, Robin, Van Der Schrier, Gerard, Van Der Werf, Guido R., Van Meerbeeck, Cedric J., Velicogna, I., Verburg, Piet, Vigneswaran, Bala, Vincent, Lucie A., Volkov, Denis, Vose, Russell S., Wagner, Wolfgang, Wåhlin, Anna, Wahr, J., Walsh, J., Wang, Chunzai, Wang, Junhong, Wang, Lei, Wang, M., Wang, Sheng Hung, Wanninkhof, Rik, Watanabe, Shohei, Weber, Mark, Weller, Robert A., Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A., Whitewood, Robert, Wijffels, Susan E., Wilber, Anne C., Wild, Jeanette D., Willett, Kate M., Williams, Michael J.M., Willie, Shem, Wolken, G., Wong, Takmeng, Wood, E. F., Woolway, R. Iestyn, Wouters, B., Xue, Yan, Yamada, Ryuji, Yim, So Young, Yin, Xungang, Young, Steven H., Yu, Lisan, Zahid, H., Zambrano, Eduardo, Zhang, Peiqun, Zhao, Guanguo, Zhou, Lin, Ziemke, Jerry R., Love-Brotak, S. Elizabeth, Gilbert, Kristin, Maycock, Tom, Osborne, Susan, Sprain, Mara, Veasey, Sara W., Ambrose, Barbara J., Griffin, Jessicca, Misch, Deborah J., Riddle, Deborah B., Young, Teresa, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Earth and Climate

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Perspective (graphical), 15. Life on land, 01 natural sciences, El Niño Southern Oscillation, 13. Climate action, Climatology, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Environmental science, SDG 14 - Life Below Water, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

Most of the dozens of essential climate variables monitored each year in this report continued to follow their long-term trends in 2014, with several setting new records. Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-the major greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-once again all reached record high average atmospheric concentrations for the year. Carbon dioxide increased by 1.9 ppm to reach a globally averaged value of 397.2 ppm for 2014. Altogether, 5 major and 15 minor greenhouse gases contributed 2.94 W m-2 of direct radiative forcing, which is 36% greater than their contributions just a quarter century ago. Accompanying the record-high greenhouse gas concentrations was nominally the highest annual global surface temperature in at least 135 years of modern record keeping, according to four independent observational analyses. The warmth was distributed widely around the globe's land areas, Europe observed its warmest year on record by a large margin, with close to two dozen countries breaking their previous national temperature records; many countries in Asia had annual temperatures among their 10 warmest on record; Africa reported above-average temperatures across most of the continent throughout 2014; Australia saw its third warmest year on record, following record heat there in 2013; Mexico had its warmest year on record; and Argentina and Uruguay each had their second warmest year on record. Eastern North America was the only major region to observe a below-average annual temperature. But it was the oceans that drove the record global surface temperature in 2014. Although 2014 was largely ENSO-neutral, the globally averaged sea surface temperature (SST) was the highest on record. The warmth was particularly notable in the North Pacific Ocean where SST anomalies signaled a transition from a negative to positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. In the winter of 2013/14, unusually warm water in the northeast Pacific was associated with elevated ocean heat content anomalies and elevated sea level in the region. Globally, upper ocean heat content was record high for the year, reflecting the continued increase of thermal energy in the oceans, which absorb over 90% of Earth's excess heat from greenhouse gas forcing. Owing to both ocean warming and land ice melt contributions, global mean sea level in 2014 was also record high and 67 mm greater than the 1993 annual mean, when satellite altimetry measurements began. Sea surface salinity trends over the past decade indicate that salty regions grew saltier while fresh regions became fresher, suggestive of an increased hydrological cycle over the ocean expected with global warming. As in previous years, these patterns are reflected in 2014 subsurface salinity anomalies as well. With a now decade-long trans-basin instrument array along 26°N, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shows a decrease in transport of-4.2 ± 2.5 Sv decade-1. Precipitation was quite variable across the globe. On balance, precipitation over the world's oceans was above average, while below average across land surfaces. Drought continued in southeastern Brazil and the western United States. Heavy rain during April-June led to devastating floods in Canada's Eastern Prairies. Above-normal summer monsoon rainfall was observed over the southern coast of West Africa, while drier conditions prevailed over the eastern Sahel. Generally, summer monsoon rainfall over eastern Africa was above normal, except in parts of western South Sudan and Ethiopia. The south Asian summer monsoon in India was below normal, with June record dry. Across the major tropical cyclone basins, 91 named storms were observed during 2014, above the 1981-2010 global average of 82. The Eastern/Central Pacific and South Indian Ocean basins experienced significantly above-normal activity in 2014; all other basins were either at or below normal. The 22 named storms in the Eastern/Central Pacific was the basin's most since 1992. Similar to 2013, the North Atlantic season was quieter than most years of the last two decades with respect to the number of storms, despite the absence of El Niño conditions during both years. In higher latitudes and at higher elevations, increased warming continued to be visible in the decline of glacier mass balance, increasing permafrost temperatures, and a deeper thawing layer in seasonally frozen soil. In the Arctic, the 2014 temperature over land areas was the fourth highest in the 115-year period of record and snow melt occurred 20-30 days earlier than the 1998-2010 average. The Greenland Ice Sheet experienced extensive melting in summer 2014. The extent of melting was above the 1981-2010 average for 90% of the melt season, contributing to the second lowest average summer albedo over Greenland since observations began in 2000 and a record-low albedo across the ice sheet for August. On the North Slope of Alaska, new record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at four of five permafrost observatories. In September, Arctic minimum sea ice extent was the sixth lowest since satellite records began in 1979. The eight lowest sea ice extents during this period have occurred in the last eight years. Conversely, in the Antarctic, sea ice extent countered its declining trend and set several new records in 2014, including record high monthly mean sea ice extent each month from April to November. On 20 September, a record large daily Antarctic sea ice extent of 20.14 × 106 km2 occurred. The 2014 Antarctic stratospheric ozone hole was 20.9 million km2 when averaged from 7 September to 13 October, the sixth smallest on record and continuing a decrease, albeit statistically insignificant, in area since 1998.

Published
2015
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5. Reviews and syntheses : Effects of permafrost thaw on Arctic aquatic ecosystems

Author

Vonk, J. E., Tank, S. E., Bowden, W. B., Laurion, I., Vincent, W. F., Alekseychik, P., Amyot, M., Billet, M. F., Canário, J., Cory, R. M., Deshpande, B. N., Helbig, M., Jammet, M., Karlsson, J., Larouche, J., Macmillan, G., Rautio, M., Walter Anthony, K. M., Wickland, K. P., Organic geochemistry, NWO-VENI: Ancient organic matter that matters: The fate of Siberian Yedoma deposits, Organic geochemistry, and NWO-VENI: Ancient organic matter that matters: The fate of Siberian Yedoma deposits

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Evolution, Earth science, lcsh:Life, 010501 environmental sciences, Permafrost, Freshwater ecosystem, 01 natural sciences, Thermokarst, Behavior and Systematics, lcsh:QH540-549.5, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Organic matter, 14. Life underwater, Thaw depth, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Earth-Surface Processes, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, chemistry.chemical_classification, Ekologi, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, Ecology, Aquatic ecosystem, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Lake ecosystem, 15. Life on land, lcsh:Geology, lcsh:QH501-531, chemistry, Arctic, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, lcsh:Ecology
Abstract

The Arctic is a water-rich region, with freshwater systems covering 16 % of the northern permafrost landscape. The thawing of this permafrost creates new freshwater ecosystems, while at the same time modifying the existing lakes, streams, and rivers that are impacted by thaw. Here, we describe the current state of knowledge regarding how permafrost thaw affects lentic and lotic systems, exploring the effects of both thermokarst (thawing and collapse of ice-rich permafrost) and deepening of the active layer (the surface soil layer that thaws and refreezes each year). Within thermokarst, we further differentiate between the effects of thermokarst in lowland areas, vs. that on hillslopes. For almost all of the processes that we explore, the effects of thaw vary regionally, and between lake and stream systems. Much of this regional variation is caused by differences in ground ice content, topography, soil type, and permafrost coverage. Together, these modifying variables determine the degree to which permafrost thaw manifests as thermokarst, whether thermokarst leads to slumping or the formation of thermokarst lakes, and the manner in which constituent delivery to freshwater systems is altered by thaw. Differences in thaw-enabled constituent delivery can be considerable, with these modifying variables determining, for example, the balance between delivery of particulate vs. dissolved constituents, and inorganic vs. organic materials. Changes in the composition of thaw-impacted waters, coupled with changes in lake morphology, can strongly affect the physical and optical properties of thermokarst lakes. The ecology of thaw-impacted systems is also likely to change, with thaw-impacted lakes and streams having unique microbiological communities, and showing differences in respiration, primary production, and food web structure that are largely driven by differences in sediment, dissolved organic matter and nutrient delivery. The degree to which thaw enables the delivery of dissolved vs. particulate organic matter, coupled with the composition of that organic matter and the morphology and stratification characteristics of recipient systems will play an important role in determining the balance between the release of organic matter as greenhouse gases (CO2 and CH4), its burial in sediments, and its loss downstream. The magnitude of thaw impacts on northern aquatic ecosystems is increasing, as is the prevalence of thaw-impacted lakes and streams. There is therefore an urgent need to address the key gaps in understanding in order to predict the full effects of permafrost thaw on aquatic ecosystems throughout the Arctic, and their consequential feedbacks to climate.

Published
2015
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6. Biodegradability of dissolved organic carbon in permafrost soils and aquatic systems: a meta-analysis

Author

Vonk, J. E., Tank, S. E., Mann, P. J., Spencer, R. G M, Treat, C. C., Striegl, R. G., Abbott, B. W., Wickland, K. P., Organic geochemistry, NWO-VENI: Ancient organic matter that matters: The fate of Siberian Yedoma deposits, Department of Earth Sciences [Utrecht], Utrecht University [Utrecht], Arctic Center, University of Groningen [Groningen], Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Department of Geography, University of Northumbria at Newcastle [United Kingdom], Ecosystèmes, biodiversité, évolution [Rennes] (ECOBIO), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Rennes (OSUR)-Institut Ecologie et Environnement (INEE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Rennes 1 (UR1), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES), Organic geochemistry, NWO-VENI: Ancient organic matter that matters: The fate of Siberian Yedoma deposits, Groningen Institute of Archaeology, Earth and Climate, Université de Rennes (UR)-Institut Ecologie et Environnement (INEE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Rennes (OSUR), and Université de Rennes (UR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Evolution, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Yedoma, lcsh:Life, F800, 010501 environmental sciences, Permafrost, 01 natural sciences, Behavior and Systematics, lcsh:QH540-549.5, Dissolved organic carbon, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Earth-Surface Processes, 2. Zero hunger, Hydrology, Total organic carbon, Ecology, Aquatic ecosystem, lcsh:QE1-996.5, 15. Life on land, lcsh:Geology, lcsh:QH501-531, 13. Climate action, Soil water, Environmental science, Permafrost carbon cycle, lcsh:Ecology, Surface water
Abstract

As Arctic regions warm and frozen soils thaw, the large organic carbon pool stored in permafrost becomes increasingly vulnerable to decomposition or transport. The transfer of newly mobilized carbon to the atmosphere and its potential influence upon climate change will largely depend on the degradability of carbon delivered to aquatic ecosystems. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is a key regulator of aquatic metabolism, yet knowledge of the mechanistic controls on DOC biodegradability is currently poor due to a scarcity of long-term data sets, limited spatial coverage of available data, and methodological diversity. Here, we performed parallel biodegradable DOC (BDOC) experiments at six Arctic sites (16 experiments) using a standardized incubation protocol to examine the effect of methodological differences commonly used in the literature. We also synthesized results from 14 aquatic and soil leachate BDOC studies from across the circum-arctic permafrost region to examine pan-arctic trends in BDOC. An increasing extent of permafrost across the landscape resulted in higher DOC losses in both soil and aquatic systems. We hypothesize that the unique composition of (yedoma) permafrost-derived DOC combined with limited prior microbial processing due to low soil temperature and relatively short flow path lengths and transport times, contributed to a higher overall terrestrial and freshwater DOC loss. Additionally, we found that the fraction of BDOC decreased moving down the fluvial network in continuous permafrost regions, i.e. from streams to large rivers, suggesting that highly biodegradable DOC is lost in headwater streams. We also observed a seasonal (January–December) decrease in BDOC in large streams and rivers, but saw no apparent change in smaller streams or soil leachates. We attribute this seasonal change to a combination of factors including shifts in carbon source, changing DOC residence time related to increasing thaw-depth, increasing water temperatures later in the summer, as well as decreasing hydrologic connectivity between soils and surface water as the thaw season progresses. Our results suggest that future climate warming-induced shifts of continuous permafrost into discontinuous permafrost regions could affect the degradation potential of thaw-released DOC, the amount of BDOC, as well as its variability throughout the Arctic summer. We lastly recommend a standardized BDOC protocol to facilitate the comparison of future work and improve our knowledge of processing and transport of DOC in a changing Arctic.

Published
2015
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