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Satellite observations of the Antarctic surface since the 1990s, coupled with geophysical surveys of the flow and form of its giant ice sheet, have revealed accelerating loss of ice to the oceans. This, coupled with a reduction in floating sea ice surrounding the continent and the occurrence of unprecedented heatwaves, point to a continent being changed irreversibly by fossil-fuel burning and the global heating that results. A changing Antarctic continent will have global consequences, including sea level rise of possibly more than 1 meter in this century (and much more afterward) and by a reduced ability to naturally reflect incoming solar energy—which would lead to further heating by absorption on land and at sea as the ice pack retreats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the climatic response of the Arctic to key factors that could shape future climate scenarios: significantly reduced ice sheets, changes in vegetation, and elevated CO2 levels. Using the EC-Earth3.3 Earth system model (ESM), we explore the effects of these forcings under conditions reminiscent of the mid-Pliocene, a key reference for potential future warm climates. Our results reveal that the Arctic climate response varies significantly with different CO2 levels, primarily due to feedbacks involving sea ice and surface albedo. The effects of the reduced ice sheet are, in a pre-industrial CO2 environment (280 ppm), an Arctic warming of 2.4°C. This is driven by substantial sea ice loss in the Barents Sea, which reduces surface albedo. Surprisingly, at 400 ppm CO2, Arctic warming incurred from the ice sheet reduction is lower than expected, at 1.9°C, because sea ice loss is less pronounced compared to pre-industrial conditions, leading to smaller albedo changes. At 560 ppm, the warming is more substantial (2.9°C) but still less than expected, largely due to the already reduced sea-ice extent at this high CO2 level. Vegetation changes further modulate Arctic climate dynamics. At 400 ppm CO2, the expansion of needleleaf evergreen trees decreases surface albedo, adding an additional 0.5°C of warming. However, at 560 ppm CO2, the warming effect of vegetation growth was muted (0.3°C) due to the development of a more diverse canopy with brighter deciduous species, which mitigates the albedo-driven warming. Our findings underscore the complex interplay between CO2 levels, sea ice, and vegetation in determining in Arctic climate dynamics. They highlight that the importance of maintaining CO2 levels at or below 400 ppm to moderate Arctic warming effectively. This study emphasizes the value of integrating paleoclimate insights into future climate projections and underscores the need for a more detailed examination of feedback mechanisms to enhance the robustness of climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beginning in March 2022, the Antarctic Peninsula's Hektoria Glacier experienced an unprecedented retreat of ∼23 km over 1.5 years, one of the fastest observed glacier retreats on record. Improving constraints on the drivers of such extreme events is key to understanding glacier change around the continent and future sea‐level rise. We use satellite remote sensing and reanalysis data to characterize changes in Hektoria, a former Larsen B Ice Shelf tributary, over the last ∼20 years and document a period of retreat from 2002 to 2011, and readvancement from 2011 to 2022. We find that the long‐term ice front and velocity response (2002–2022) correlated more strongly with changes in modeled ocean temperatures compared to surface air temperatures. However, the acute loss of buttressing support following fast ice collapse paired with a near‐contemporaneous extreme atmospheric river in the region likely catalyzed the unprecedented 2022–2023 retreat. Plain Language Summary: The Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest sources for future sea level rise, yet how much and how fast ice is lost to the ocean here remains relatively unknown. Ice shelves can buttress glaciers from flowing quickly into the ocean, stabilizing their movement and limiting mass discharge. As ice shelves retreat or break up, glaciers accelerate, adding mass to the ocean. In this study, we use imagery and elevation data collected from airborne studies and satellites to characterize how Hektoria Glacier—a marine‐terminating glacier located on the Eastern Antarctic Peninsula that was previously a Larsen B Ice Shelf tributary—has changed over the past 20 years. We compare these changes with available ocean and air temperatures in the region to determine how they influenced the observed fluctuations over time. We find that Hektoria retreated from 2002 to 2011 and readvanced from 2011 to 2022, followed by an unprecedented retreat of ∼23 km between March 2022 and August 2023. We find that abrupt changes in stress following buttressing loss drives glacier change, while modeled ocean temperatures wield influence on Hektoria's long‐term fluctuations and atmospheric temperatures drive shorter term changes in glacier response. Key Points: Hektoria Glacier retreated ∼23 km between March 2022 and August 2023—one of the fastest observed marine‐terminating glacier retreatsChanges in buttressing support and mid‐depth ocean temperatures served as primary drivers for change at Hektoria between 2002 and 2022Understanding long‐ and short‐term glacier response to ocean and atmospheric variability is key to improved sea level rise predictions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Internal solitary waves in polar regions have attracted much interest recently. It is important to understand how sea ice affects them as this may have a profound influence on human activities and the environment. In this study, experiments on internal solitary waves with and without two types of sea ice (ice sheet and ice keel) are presented, as well as corresponding simulations using the Korteweg-de Vries (KdV) equation, the Benjamin-Ono (BO) equation, and the variable-coefficient Korteweg-de Vries (vKdV) equation, which is a derivation of the KdV equation. Comparison between experiments without sea ice and simulations using the KdV and BO equations proves the suitability of the former over the latter for this study. The experiments with sea ice and theoretical simulations using the vKdV equation provide evidence for wave deformation, oscillation occurring in the rear of the wave, and a decrease in amplitude. The latter suggests possibilities of energy dissipation or the emission of small amplitude linear waves. The sharp vertices of the ice result in occasional inconsistency with the vKdV predictions. Nonetheless, the vKdV equation is still suitable for modeling internal solitary waves under sea ice, giving generally accurate results that can assist further studies. This is the first time the vKdV equation has been applied to investigate the impacts of sea ice on internal solitary waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coupled ice sheet–ocean models are increasingly being developed and applied to important questions pertaining to processes at the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheet margins, which play a pivotal role in ice sheet stability and sea level rise projections. One of the challenges of such coupled modelling activities is the timescale discrepancy between ice and ocean dynamics. This discrepancy, combined with the high computational cost of ocean models due to their finer temporal resolution, limits the time frame that can be modelled. In this study, we introduce an "accelerated forcing" approach to address the timescale discrepancy and thus improve computational efficiency in a framework designed to couple evolving ice geometry to ice shelf cavity circulation. This approach is based on the assumption that the ocean adjusts faster to imposed changes than the ice sheet, so the ocean can be viewed as being in a quasi-steady state that varies slowly over timescales of ice geometry change. By assuming that the mean basal melt rate during one coupling interval can be reflected by a quasi-steady-state melt rate during a shortened coupling interval (equal to the regular coupling interval divided by a constant factor), we can reduce the ocean model simulation duration. We first demonstrate that the mean cavity residence time, derived from standalone ocean simulations, can guide the selection of suitable scenarios for this approach. We then evaluate the accelerated forcing approach by comparing basal melting response under the accelerated forcing with that under the regular forcing (without the accelerated forcing) based on idealized coupled ice sheet–ocean model experiments. Our results suggest that the accelerated approach can yield comparable melting responses to those under the regular forcing approach when the model is subjected to steady far-field ocean conditions or time-varying conditions with timescales much shorter than the cavity residence time. However, it may not be suitable when the timescale of the accelerated ocean conditions is not significantly different from the cavity residence time. We have also discussed the limitations of applying the accelerated forcing approach to real-world scenarios, as it may not be applicable in coupled modelling studies addressing climate variability on sub-decadal, decadal, and mixed timescales or in fully coupled climate models with interactive ice sheets. Nevertheless, when appropriately applied, the accelerated approach can be a useful tool in process-oriented coupled ice sheet–ocean modelling or for downscaling climate simulations with a coupled ice sheet–ocean model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Model projections suggest that the continental shelf in the southern Weddell Sea may experience a shift from today's near‐freezing temperature to a much warmer state, where warm water floods the shelf and basal melt rates beneath the Filchner Ronne Ice Shelf increase dramatically. Today, the Filchner Trough serves as a conduit for the southward flow of Warm Deep Water (WDW) during summer and, thus, requires continuous monitoring of its hydrographic conditions. An extensive network of moorings was installed at key sites along the inflow pathway from 2017 to 2021, to expand on existing mooring records starting in 2014. The moorings complemented with under‐ice profiling floats reveal two inflow pathways, where WDW enters along the eastern flank of the Filchner Trough as well as through a smaller trough east of there. Within the observed period, 2017 and 2018 feature anomalously warm inflows. The inflow is regulated by the heaving of isopycnals over the continental slope, and the southward propagation toward Filchner Ice Shelf is two times faster during these warm years. Furthermore, the warm years coincide with low summer sea ice concentration, which enhances surface stratification through increased freshwater input and modifies sea ice‐ocean stresses that both act to lift the warm water layer and increase the temperatures on the continental shelf. Finally, the recent record low sea ice conditions around the Antarctic emphasize the importance of our findings and raise concerns regarding a potentially increasing presence of WDW on the southern Weddell Sea shelf. Plain Language Summary: Melting of ice shelves, the floating extension of the Antarctic ice sheet, has been linked to the flow of relatively warm water from the deep ocean into the ocean‐filled cavities underneath them. In the Weddell Sea, the shallow continental shelf is generally covered with near‐freezing water, and the large Filchner Ronne Ice Shelf in the south is presently characterized by low basal melt rates. Here, we explore four to 7‐year‐long bottom‐mounted mooring records of temperature and velocity from the region and the drift trajectories of subsurface floats. We show that the water follows two pathways onto the eastern part of the continental shelf whose relative importance varies from year to year. During years that are warmer than average, the warm water moves more rapidly across the shelf. The warm water inflow was especially large in 2017 and 2018 and appeared to be linked to anomalously low sea ice concentration. A reduced ice cover and changes in the stress at the ocean surface help to bring the warm water higher up in the water column so that it can more easily flow onto the continental shelf. Key Points: Extensive network of moorings show the propagation of modified Warm Deep Water from the continental slope into the Filchner TroughAnomalously warm inflow in 2017 and 2018 is observed along the whole inflow pathwayAnomalies were driven by low sea ice concentration and local upwelling above the continental slope [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southeast Greenland (SEG) is characterized by complex morphology and environmental processes that create dynamic habitats for top marine predators. Active glaciers producing solid-ice discharge, freshwater flux, offshore sea ice transport, and seasonal landfast-ice formation all contribute to a variable, transient environment within SEG fjord systems. Here, we investigate a selection of physical processes in SEG to provide a regional characterization that reveals physical system processes and supports biological research. SEG fjords exhibit high fjord-to-fjord variability regarding bathymetry, size, shape, and glacial setting, influencing some processes more than others. For example, during fall, the timing of offshore sea ice formation near SEG fjords progresses temporally when moving southward across latitudes, while the timing of offshore sea ice disappearance is less dependent on latitude. The rates of annual freshwater flux into fjords, however, are highly variable across SEG, with annual average input values ranging from ∼ 1 × 108 to ∼ 1.25 × 1010 m3 (∼ 0.1–12.5 Gt) for individual fjords. Similarly, the rates of solid-ice discharge in SEG fjords vary widely – partly due to the irregular distribution of active glaciers across the study area (60–70° N). Landfast sea ice, assessed for eight focus fjords, is seasonal and has a spatial distribution highly dependent on individual fjord topography. Conversely, glacial ice is deposited into fjord systems year-round, with the spatial distribution of glacier-derived ice depending on the location of glacier termini. As climate change continues to affect SEG, the evolution of these metrics will vary individually in their response, and next steps should include moving from characterization to system projection. Due to the projected regional ice sheet persistence that will continue to feed glacial ice into fjords, it is possible that SEG could remain a long-term refugium for polar bears and other ice-dependent species on a centennial to millennial scale, demonstrating a need for continued research into the SEG physical environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic sheet is transitioning from a continuous cover of thick multi-year ice to a fragmented landscape of thin young ice. If the type of acoustic transmission allows repetitive interaction of rays with the sea surface, in the fragmented scenario acoustic rays will undergo a random sequence of reflections from water or sea-ice interfaces. Calm sea conditions in the water channels between the ice floes (leads) and the smooth, flat surface of the young ice bottom reduce scattering due to interface roughness, resulting only in scattering due to inhomogeneity in surface reflectivity. Using an idealized framework, this study investigates the extent to which the mid- to high-frequency underwater acoustic propagation is altered due to repetitive interactions of acoustic signals with a sea surface consisting of a random distribution of ice sheets and leads. An expression for the coherent field (the acoustic field averaged over an ensemble of realizations of sea-ice distributions) was derived from theory. Any deviation from a homogeneous surface condition (either by randomly adding ice slabs in a free ice surface or by including leads in a fully ice-covered sea surface) leads to an excess attenuation of the coherent field. Results are validated by numerical simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is rapidly transforming the coastal margins of Greenland. At the same time, there is increasing recognition that marine‐terminating glaciers provide unique and critical habitats to ice‐associated top predators. We investigated the connection between a top predator occupying glacial fjord systems in Northwest Greenland and the properties of Atlantic‐origin water and marine‐terminating glaciers through a multiyear interdisciplinary project. Using passive acoustic monitoring, we quantified the summer presence and autumn departure of narwhals (Monodon monoceros) at glacier fronts in Melville Bay and modeled what glacier fjord physical attributes are associated with narwhal occurrence. We found that narwhals are present at glacier fronts after Greenland Ice Sheet peak summer runoff and they remain there during the period when the water column is becoming colder and fresher. Narwhals occupied glacier fronts when ocean temperatures ranged from −0.6 to 0.8°C and salinities between 33.2 and 34.0 psu at around 200 m depth and they departed on their southbound migration between October and November. Narwhals' departure was approximately 4 weeks later in 2019 than in 2018, after an extreme 2019 summer heatwave event that also delayed sea ice formation by 2 months. Our study provides further support for the niche conservative narwhal's preference for cold ocean temperatures. These results may inform projections about how future changes will impact narwhal subpopulations, especially those occupying Greenland glacial fjords. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has experienced accelerated loss of ice over the last decades and could become the main contributor to sea level rise in the coming centuries. However, the associated uncertainty is very large. The main sources of this uncertainty lie in the future scenarios, the climatic forcing and, most notably, the structural uncertainty due to our lack of understanding of ice–ocean interaction processes, in particular, the representation of subshelf basal melt. In this study, we use a higher-order ice sheet model to investigate the impact of these three sources of uncertainty on the contribution of the AIS to sea level in the coming centuries in the context of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) but extending the projections to 2500. We test the sensitivity of the model to basal melting parameters using several forcings and scenarios simulated in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles. Results show a strong dependency on the values of the parameter that controls the heat exchange velocity between ice and ocean as well as the forcing and scenario. Higher values of the heat exchange parameter lead to higher sea level rise, with the contribution depending on the forcing–scenario configuration and reaching in some cases more than 3 m in sea level equivalent by the end of 2500. Idealized simulations considering the individual effects of the atmospheric and the oceanic forcing have been performed, demonstrating that the oceanic forcing plays a dominant role over the western sector of the AIS, while the atmospheric forcing is more important for the eastern sector and the interior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Local ice pressure refers to the ice pressure exerted on a very small area of a structure during ice failure. The existence of high-pressure zones may lead to local deformation and damage to ice-resistant structures, posing a serious threat to the overall structural stability. This study simulates the interaction between sea ice and structures through model tests, analyzing the timing of extreme local ice pressures. The results show that at low loading speeds, there is a 50% probability that the extreme local ice pressure occurs at the peak of the global ice force, while at high loading speeds, this probability drops to around 25%. Further investigation into the relationship between the global ice force peak, ice thickness, loading speed, and local area with local ice pressure amplitude reveals that the local ice pressure amplitude decreases with increasing loading speed and increases with ice thickness. Based on the area averaging method for square regions, the relationship between local ice pressure amplitude and local area is studied, showing that ice thickness, local width, and loading speed all influence the pressure–area relationship. Based on the square area averaging method, the relationship between the local ice pressure amplitude and the local area was studied. It was found that a linear relationship exists between the power function coefficient of local ice pressure–area and the thickness-to-width ratio. Compared to brittle failure, the local ice pressure amplitude under ductile failure of the ice sheet is more significantly affected by ice thickness. This study provides a foundation and reference for the analysis of ice-resistant performance and structural design of polar marine engineering structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Greenland's marine‐terminating glaciers connect the ice sheet to the ocean and provide a critical boundary where heat, freshwater, and nutrient exchanges take place. Buoyant freshwater runoff from inland ice sheet melt is discharged at the base of marine‐terminating glaciers, forming vigorous upwelling plumes. It is understood that subglacial plumes modify waters near glacier fronts and increase submarine glacier melt by entraining warm ambient waters at depth. However, ocean observations along Greenland's coastal margins remain biased toward summer months which limits accurate estimation of ocean forcing on glacier retreat and acceleration. Here, we fill a key observational gap in northwest Greenland by describing seasonal hydrographic variation at glacier fronts in Melville Bay using in situ observations from moorings deployed year‐round, CTDs, and profiling floats. We evaluated local and remote forcing using remote sensing and reanalysis data products alongside a high‐resolution ocean model. Analysis of the year‐round hydrographic data revealed consistent above‐sill seasonality in temperature and salinity. The warmest, saltiest waters occurred in spring (April–May) and primed glaciers for enhanced submarine melt in summer when meltwater plumes entrain deep waters. Waters were coldest and freshest in early winter (November–December) after summer melt from sea ice, glacier ice, and icebergs provided cold freshwater along the shelf. Ocean variability was greatest in the summer and fall, coincident with increased freshwater runoff and large wind events before winter sea ice formation. Results increase our mechanistic understanding of Greenland ice‐ocean interactions and enable improvements in ocean model parameterization. Plain Language Summary: Many of Greenland's glaciers terminate in the ocean and form an important boundary between coastal waters and the ice sheet. During summer months, meltwater from the ice sheet flows out below glaciers that terminate in the ocean. The less‐dense meltwater rises to the surface as a plume, increasing near‐glacier ocean mixing and submarine glacier melt. Understanding processes at the glacier‐ocean interface, including how plumes modify nearshore waters, requires sustained observations near glacier termini. However, ocean measurements are largely taken during the summer and do not necessarily represent the total variability observed in the system. Here, we fill an important knowledge gap by presenting year‐round measurements of temperature and salinity near glacier fronts in Northwest Greenland. We found the warmest, saltiest waters in the spring and coldest, freshest waters in early winter at all sites. Warm waters in the spring prime deep glaciers for submarine melt during summer. Increased winds in the fall initiated vertical mixing in nearshore waters before winter sea ice created a surface barrier, stabilizing the water column. Results advance our understanding of the ocean's role in the acceleration and retreat of Greenland's glaciers, which is important for estimating large‐scale ocean circulation and Greenland's ice sheet mass loss. Key Points: Moored hydrographic observations at glacier fronts in NW Greenland revealed consistent above‐sill seasonality in temperature and salinityOcean temperatures reached a maximum in spring, priming deep glaciers for submarine melt during summerRemote forcing supplied the renewal of warm, salty water in the spring and local forcing controlled increased variability in the summer/fall [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite extensive investigation, the nature and causes of the Mid-Pleistocene Transition remain enigmatic. In this work, we assess its linkage to asynchronous development of bipolar ice sheets by synthesizing Pleistocene mid- to high-latitude proxy records linked to hemispheric ice sheet evolution. Our results indicate substantial growth of the Antarctic Ice Sheets (AISs) at 2.0 to 1.25 million years ago, preceding the rapid expansion of Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheets after ~1.25 million years ago. Proxy-model comparisons suggest that AIS and associated Southern Ocean sea ice expansion can induce northern high-latitude cooling and enhanced moisture transport to the Northern Hemisphere, thus triggering the Mid-Pleistocene Transition. The dynamic processes involved are crucial for assessing modern global warming that is already inducing asynchronous bipolar melting of ice sheets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in global mean sea level are a clear indicator of a warming climate, but local factors including land subsidence or uplift, cause changes in relative sea level that drive shoreline shifts. These local changes and their impact on coastal hazards matter to coastal communities. NZ SeaRise produced relative sea level projections for Aotearoa to include the latest global climate and Antarctic Ice Sheet research and estimates of vertical land movement at high spatial resolution. Research-informed communication to the public and planners included a web-based projections tool supplemented by written and visual narratives, and a media engagement plan. This communication, and analysis of media impact, provided a case study for audience-relevant information on sea-level rise. Information regarding shoreline change and evolving hazards, required for risk assessment, was not included in the NZ SeaRise projections. New research is needed to reduce uncertainty in future Antarctic Ice Sheet contribution to sea level, link changes in sea surface height to our dynamic land surface and enhance communication approaches. Several examples of the required research are presented here but ongoing efforts must refine the timing and magnitude of coastline change, better define coastal hazards and risks, and develop appropriate adaptation strategies for unavoidable climate change impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Constraining the role of microbes in the structural iron (Fe) reduction of iron-bearing minerals improves our understanding of sediments and ice sheets as a source of dissolved Fe (dFe) to the oceans. However, bio-mediated structural Fe-reduction has yet to be studied in cryospheric environments. Here, we show that the Fe reducing psychrophile bacterium Shewanella vesiculosa, isolated from sea ice in Antarctica, reduced structural Fe in nontronite (NAu-2) and maghemite (γ-Fe 2 O 3), common mineral phases in glacial ice, and marine sediments in Antarctica, during two freeze–thaw cycles (−10 °C to +15 °C), resulting in the release of dFe. The modification of turbostratically disordered nontronite (ferric iron dominant phase) to discrete ordered illite-like structure (ferrous iron dominant phase), and the aggregation of altered small maghemite particles with neoformation of vivianite (Fe 3 (PO 4) 2 ·nH 2 O) indicated the microbially induced reductive dissolution of nontronite and maghemite, respectively. The biotic Fe-reduction gradually decreased and ceased as the temperature approached freezing (−8 °C), however the rection reactivated in the thawing cycle (−7 to +15 °C). No discernable biotic Fe-reduction was measured for either mineral under freezing conditions, suggesting that temperature limits the activity of the microbes. Further, and regardless of temperatures during two freeze–thaw cycles, Fe-reduction was not observed in abiotic control. Overall, these results highlight the importance of microbially induced Fe reduction during seasonal freeze–thaw cycles of ice and sediments in continuous supplying bioavailable dFe to cryospheric environments and the often Fe-limited polar oceans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet can alter the continental shelf/slope circulation and cross-shelf freshwater fluxes and limit deep convection in adjacent basins through surface freshening. We explore the impacts on the West Greenland Current and eastern Labrador Sea with different vertical distributions of the meltwater forcing. In this study, we present the results from global coupled ocean/sea ice simulations, forced with atmospheric reanalysis, that are mesoscale eddy-active (∼2–3-km horizontal spacing) and eddy-permitting (∼6–7-km horizontal spacing) in the study region. We compare the West Greenland Current in mesoscale eddy-active and eddy-permitting without meltwater to highlight the role of small-scale features. The mesoscale eddy-active configuration is then used to assess the change in the eastern Labrador Sea when meltwater is added to the surface or vertically distributed to account for mixing within fjords. In both simulations with meltwater, the West Greenland and West Greenland Coastal Currents are faster than in the simulation with no meltwater; their mean surface speeds are the highest in the vertical distribution case. In the latter case, there is enhanced baroclinic conversion at the shelf break compared to the simulation with no meltwater. When meltwater is vertically distributed, there is an increase in baroclinic conversion at the shelf break associated with increased eddy kinetic energy. In addition, in the eastern Labrador Sea, the salinity is lower and the meltwater volume is greater when meltwater is vertically distributed. Therefore, the West Greenland Current is sensitive to how meltwater is added to the ocean with implications for the freshening of the Labrador Sea. Significance Statement: Our goal is to understand how the flux of freshwater across the West Greenland continental slope into the Labrador Sea is modified by meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet. We compare the simulations of the ocean that capture key dynamics along the West Greenland continental slope that have no meltwater, meltwater added to the ocean surface, and meltwater distributed vertically to represent the mixing within fjords. When meltwater is added, the currents along the continental slope are faster, with the greatest increase when meltwater is vertically distributed. In that case, there is enhanced freshening of the Labrador Sea because modified density gradients generate more eddies. Proper representation of the vertical structure of meltwater is important for projecting the impact of freshwater on the subpolar North Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) plays a major role in the global sea level rise. The west coast of the GrIS has contributed 1,000 Gt of the 4,488 Gt GrIS mass loss between 2002 and 2021, making it a hotspot for GrIS mass loss. Surface melting is driven by changes in the radiative budget at the surface, which are modulated by clouds. Previous works have shown the impact of North Atlantic transport for influencing cloudiness over the GrIS. Here we used space‐based lidar cloud profile observations to show that a polar low circulation promotes the presence of low clouds over the GrIS west coast that warm radiatively the GrIS surface during the melt season. Polar low circulation transports moisture and low clouds from the sea to the west of Greenland up over the GrIS west coast through the melt season. The concomitance of the increasing presence of low cloud in fall over the Baffin Sea due to seasonal sea‐ice retreat and a maximum occurrence of Polar low circulation in September results in a maximum of low cloud fraction (∼14% at 2.5 km above sea level) over the GrIS west coast in September. These low clouds warm radiatively the GrIS west coast surface up to 80 W/m2 locally. This warming contributes to an average increase of 10 W/m2 of cloud surface warming in September compared to July on the GrIS west coast. Overall, this study suggests that regional atmospheric processes independent from North Atlantic transport may also influence the GrIS melt. Plain Language Summary: The melting of Greenland plays a major role in the global sea level rise. The west coast of Greenland has contributed to 22% of Greenland mass loss between 2002 and 2021, making it a hotspot for Greenland mass loss. Clouds modulate the energy that reaches the surface of Greenland and, therefore, might accelerate or decelerate surface melt. To explain what leads to cloud presence over Greenland, previous studies focused on the connection between the mid‐latitudes and the Greenland cloud cover. Using a combination of satellite cloud observation and models, we highlight that a low‐pressure system over the Arctic brings moisture and low clouds from the sea west of Greenland to the Greenland west coast. Then, we assess the strong surface warming effect of these low clouds. Overall, our study demonstrates that local Arctic processes lead to formation of low clouds where Greenland melts. Key Points: The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) west coast by itself represents 22% of the GrIS mass loss over the last two decadesA polar low promotes the presence of low clouds over the GrIS west coast during the melt seasonThe cloud surface radiative warming on the Greenland west coast is +10 W/m2 larger in September than July due to these low clouds [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determining recent Antarctic ice volume changes from satellite altimeter measurements of ice surface height requires a correction for contemporaneous vertical crustal deformation. This correction must consider two main sources of crustal deformation: (1) ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), that is, the deformational, gravitational, and rotational response to Late Pleistocene and Holocene ice and ocean mass changes and (2) modern ice mass change. In this study, we seek to quantify the uncertainties associated with each of these corrections. Corrections of ice surface height changes for correction 1 have generally involved the adoption of global models of GIA defined by some preferred combination of ice history and mantle viscoelastic structure. We have computed the GIA correction generated from a coupled ice sheet–sea level model and a realistic Earth model incorporating three-dimensional viscoelastic structure. Integrating the difference between this correction and those from recent GIA analyses widely adopted in the literature yields an uncertainty in total present-day ice volume change equivalent to approximately 10 % of Antarctic ice mass loss inferred for the period 2010–2020. This reinforces earlier work indicating that ice histories characterized by relatively high excess ice volume at the Last Glacial Maximum may be introducing a significant error in estimates of modern melt rates. Regarding correction 2, a spatially invariant scaling has commonly been used to convert GIA-corrected ice surface height changes obtained from satellite altimetry to ice volume estimates. We adopt modeling results based on a projection of Antarctic ice mass change over the period 2015–2055 to demonstrate a spatial variability in the scaling of up to 10 % across the ice sheet. Furthermore, using these calculations, we find a systematic error of ∼ 3 % in the projected net ice volume change, with most of the difference arising in areas of West Antarctica above mantle zones of low viscosity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The new permanent seismic station SVZ started working in Arctic (Severnaya Zemlya archipelago, Bolshevik Island), we discuss the first results of the local seismicity study. We have processed 46 local seismic events for 2017–2022. Data processing using a single seismic sensor is difficult, but using waveforms and spectral-temporal analysis of P, S, and surface waves, it is possible to separate shallow earthquakes from glacial events. We distinguish two types of icequakes—glacier-related events and pulses. An increase in seismic background noise is related to processes of glacial nature in summertime. Data processing allows to obtain the main peculiarities of local seismicity, i.e., mutual connection of glacial processes and crustal seismicity. We show the presence of icequakes induced by local crustal events; their epicenters confined to the ice domes edges. Spatio-temporal sequence and the rate of events migration show that the glacial events are a result of the defusing deformations process in the glaciers caused by the impact of shallow tectonic earthquakes. Thousands of pulsed and high-frequency micro-oscillations associate with the sea ice sheet or lake ice. The temporal variation of events' number and energy per day correlates with air temperature temporal variations. Moreover, there is a sharp increase in the number of pulses with sharp temperature changes. The greatest activity of this pulsed events is in winter and especially in March, connected with ice surface destruction. In case a network deployment is not feasible, even a single seismic station allows to get a useful information about the glacial and seismic processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glacial fjord circulation determines the import of oceanic heat to the Greenland Ice Sheet and the export of ice sheet meltwater to the ocean. However, limited observations and the presence of both glacial and coastal forcing—such as coastal‐trapped waves—make uncovering the physical mechanisms controlling fjord‐shelf exchange difficult. Here we use multi‐year, high‐resolution, realistically forced numerical simulations of Sermilik Fjord in southeast Greenland to evaluate the exchange flow. We compare models, with and without a plume, to differentiate between the exchange flow driven by shelf variability and that driven by subglacial discharge. We use the Total Exchange Flow framework to quantify the exchange volume transports. We find that a decline in offshore wind stress from January through July drives a seasonal reversal in the exchange flow increasing the presence of warm Atlantic Water at depth. We also find that including glacial plumes doubles the exchange flow in the summer. Our results show that the plume‐driven circulation is more effective at renewal with a flushing time 1/3 that of the shelf‐driven circulation near the fjord head. Plain Language Summary: Glacial fjords are narrow coastal inlets with a glacier at the landward edge. The flow of water within fjords plays a crucial role in exchanging heat and freshwater between the glacial ice and ocean. The circulation of water is driven, in part, by melting at the ice surface which falls through cracks in the ice and enters the fjord near the sea bed. The meltwater is less dense than ocean water causing it to rise as a plume before leaving the fjord close to the surface. However, fjord circulation is also impacted by storms close to the coast and offshore wind. We used a model of a fjord in Greenland to isolate and study the effects of coastal winds and meltwater on fjord circulation. Our model experiments reveal that weaker than average winds can lead to warmer water within the fjord. Also, we find that the circulation speed doubles with the addition of meltwater and a plume. These results increase our understanding of fjord circulation. Key Points: We present a set of realistically forced, multi‐year numerical simulations of Sermilik Fjord in GreenlandThe shelf‐driven circulation is tied to along‐shelf wind stress and drives a reversal in the exchange flow as winds intensify in SeptemberThe plume‐driven circulation is more effective at renewal with a flushing time 1/3 that of the shelf‐driven circulation near the fjord head [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Warm water from the Southern Ocean has a dominant impact on the evolution of Antarctic glaciers and in turn on their contribution to sea level rise. Using a continuous time series of daily-repeat satellite synthetic-aperture radar interferometry data from the ICEYE constellation collected in March-June 2023, we document an ice grounding zone, or region of tidally controlled migration of the transition boundary between grounded ice and ice afloat in the ocean, at the main trunk of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, a strong contributor to sea level rise with an ice volume equivalent to a 0.6-m global sea level rise. The ice grounding zone is 6 km wide in the central part of Thwaites with shallow bed slopes, and 2 km wide along its flanks with steep basal slopes. We additionally detect irregular seawater intrusions, 5 to 10 cm in thickness, extending another 6 km upstream, at high tide, in a bed depression located beyond a bedrock ridge that impedes the glacier retreat. Seawater intrusions align well with regions predicted by the GlaDS subglacial water model to host a high-pressure distributed subglacial hydrology system in between lower-pressure subglacial channels. Pressurized seawater intrusions will induce vigorous melt of grounded ice over kilometers, making the glacier more vulnerable to ocean warming, and increasing the projections of ice mass loss. Kilometer-wide, widespread seawater intrusion beneath grounded ice may be the missing link between the rapid, past, and present changes in ice sheet mass and the slower changes replicated by ice sheet models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Greenland Ice Sheet is losing mass at increasing rates. Substantial amounts of this mass loss occur by ice discharge which is influenced by ocean thermal forcing. The ice sheet is surrounded by thousands of peripheral, dynamically decoupled glaciers. The mass loss from these glaciers is disproportionately high considering their negligible share in Greenland' overall ice mass. We study the relevance of ocean thermal forcing for ice discharge evolution in the context of this contrasting behaviour. Our estimate of ice discharge from the peripheral tidewater glaciers yields a rather stable Greenland-wide mean of 5.40 ± 3.54 Gt a−1 over 2000–2021. The evolutions of ice discharge and ocean thermal forcing are heterogeneous around Greenland. We observe a significant sector-wide increase of ice discharge in the East and a significant sector-wide decrease in the Northeast. Ocean thermal forcing shows significant increases along the northern/eastern coast, while otherwise unchanged conditions or decreases prevail. For East Greenland, this implies a clear influence of ocean thermal forcing on ice discharge. Similarly, we find clear influences at peripheral tidewater glaciers with thick termini that are similar to ice sheet outlet glaciers. At the peripheral glaciers in Northeast Greenland ice discharge evolution opposes ocean thermal forcing for unknown reasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The largest uncertainty in future sea-level rise is loss of ice from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Ice shelves, freely floating platforms of ice that fringe the ice sheets, play a crucial role in restraining discharge of grounded ice into the ocean through buttressing. However, since the 1990s, several ice shelves have thinned, retreated, and collapsed. If this pattern continues, it could expose thick cliffs that become structurally unstable and collapse in a process called marine ice cliff instability (MICI). However, the feedbacks between calving, retreat, and other forcings are not well understood. Here we review observed modes of calving from ice shelves and marine-terminating glaciers, and their relation to environmental forces. We show that the primary driver of calving is long-term internal glaciological stress, but as ice shelves thin they may become more vulnerable to environmental forcing. This vulnerability—and the potential for MICI—comes from a combination of the distribution of preexisting flaws within the ice and regions where the stress is large enough to initiate fracture. Although significant progress has been made modeling these processes, theories must now be tested against a wide range of environmental and glaciological conditions in both modern and paleo conditions. Ice shelves, floating platforms of ice fed by ice sheets, shed mass in a near-instantaneous fashion through iceberg calving. Most ice shelves exhibit a stable cycle of calving front advance and retreat that is insensitive to small changes in environmental conditions. Some ice shelves have retreated or collapsed completely, and in the future this could expose thick cliffs that could become structurally unstable called ice cliff instability. The potential for ice shelf and ice cliff instability is controlled by the presence and evolution of flaws or fractures within the ice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Van Vliet-Lanoë, B.; Andrieu, V.; Cliquet, D.; Authemayou, C.; Le Roy, P., and Renouf, J.C., 2024. Sea ice and the Middle to Recent Quaternary: Marine highstands in Western Europe. Journal of Coastal Research, 40(3), 445–473. Charlotte (North Carolina), ISSN 0749-0208. This study analyzes the raised beaches of less than 700 kilo annum (ka) above present sea level along the English Channel, which are associated with negative anomalies in δ18O and evidence for anchor ice. The dated coastal events were compared in terms of recent storminess, sea-ice extents, and permafrost with regional paleoclimates. In western France, late Eemian and early interstadial highstands (HSs) indicate an extended annual sea-ice duration during early transgressions, with orbitally forced cold winters and a still-cool Southern Ocean. During regressions, storminess developed with a still-warm intertropical ocean but Arctic cooling. The Northern Atlantic ice sheets starved during early stadials, with aridity because of the seasonal sea-ice extent. (1) A delayed sea-level drop resulted from some ice storage in permafrost and sea ice, which caused depleted δ18O seawater (δ18Osw) values and limited ice caps. (2) The large ice sheets along the Northern Atlantic spread progressively and were delayed until marine isotope stage 4 (MIS 4). Their development resulted from summer precipitation rise caused by the cyclic restoration of thermohaline circulation during Dansgaard–Oechger (DO) events alternating with multiyear sea-ice cover. This led to a more unstable North Atlantic Current, which was repeatedly destabilized. (3) Early glacial storage partly or fully vanished during early DO or interstadial HSs, with climate conditions close to those of the present day. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Elevated ice shelf melt rates in West Antarctica have been attributed to transport of warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) onto the continental shelf via bathymetric troughs. These inflows are supplied by an eastward, subsurface slope current (referred to as the Antarctic Slope Undercurrent) that opposes the westward momentum input from local winds and tides. Despite its importance to basal melt, the mechanism via which the undercurrent forms, and thus what controls the shoreward heat transport, remains unclear. In this study, the dynamics of the undercurrent are investigated using high-resolution process-oriented simulations with coupled ocean, sea ice, and ice shelf components. It is shown that the bathymetric steering of the undercurrent toward the ice shelf is driven by upwelling of meltwater within the ice shelf cavity. Increased basal melt therefore strengthens the undercurrent and enhances onshore CDW transport, which indicates a positive feedback that may accelerate future melt of ice shelves, potentially further destabilizing the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, the Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass through glacier retreat and ice flow acceleration. This mass loss is linked with variations in submarine melt, yet existing ocean models are either coarse global simulations focused on decadal‐scale variability or fine‐scale simulations for process‐based investigations. Here, we unite these scales with a framework to downscale from a global state estimate (15 km) into a regional model (3 km) that resolves circulation on the continental shelf. We further downscale into a fjord‐scale model (500 m) that resolves circulation inside fjords and quantifies melt. We demonstrate this approach in Scoresby Sund, East Greenland, and find that interannual variations in submarine melt at Daugaard‐Jensen glacier induced by ocean temperature variability are consistent with the decadal changes in glacier ice dynamics. This study provides a framework by which coarse‐resolution models can be refined to quantify glacier submarine melt for future ice sheet projections. Plain Language Summary: Over the past several decades, the Greenland ice sheet has been losing ice and contributing to sea‐level rise. About half of this ice loss is induced by melt that occurs where glaciers meet the ocean. Using coarse‐scale ocean models that simulate circulation around the globe, previous studies have noted a strong link between ocean temperature and enhanced glacier ice loss. However, due to the small scale of Greenland's fjords, coarse models are unable to directly quantify circulation in these fjords and melt on submerged glaciers. In this study, we develop a new framework to "zoom in" on a fjord, using high‐resolution models driven by larger coarse‐resolution models. In this approach, we simulate melt on one of Greenland's biggest glaciers and find that periods of higher melt coincide with more ice loss as observed from satellites. Since this framework is adaptable to other regions, it could also be used to simulate melt on other glaciers and support estimates of future sea‐level rise. Key Points: Subsurface temperature variability is simulated in a narrow fjord network using regional models downscaled from a global state estimateModeled increases in ocean melt at Daugaard‐Jensen glacier coincide with the onset of acceleration in 2005 and retreat and thinning in 2011Model variations in shelf‐to‐fjord ocean properties match with observations, providing a basis to estimate ocean forcing in ice projections [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The explicit representation of cryospheric components in Earth system models has become more and more important over the last years. However, there are few advanced coupled Earth system models that employ interactive icebergs, and most iceberg model studies focus on iceberg trajectories or ocean surface conditions. Here, we present multi-centennial simulations with a fully coupled Earth system model including interactive icebergs to assess the effects of heat and freshwater fluxes by iceberg melting on deep-ocean characteristics. The icebergs are modeled as Lagrangian point particles and exchange heat and freshwater fluxes with the ocean. They are seeded in the Southern Ocean, following a realistic present-day size distribution. Total calving fluxes and the locations of discharge are derived from an ice sheet model output which allows for implementation in coupled climate–ice sheet models. The simulations show a cooling of up to 0.2 K of deep-ocean water masses in all ocean basins that propagates from the southern high latitudes northward. We also find enhanced deep-water formation in the continental shelf area of the Ross Sea, a process commonly underestimated by current climate models. The vertical stratification is weakened by enhanced sea ice formation and duration due to the cooling effect of iceberg melting, leading to a 10 % reduction of the buoyancy frequency in the Ross Sea. The deep-water formation in this region is increased by up to 10 %. By assessing the effects of heat and freshwater fluxes individually, we find latent heat flux to be the main driver of these water mass changes. The altered freshwater distribution by freshwater fluxes and synergetic effects play only a minor role. Our results emphasize the importance of realistically representing both heat and freshwater fluxes in the high southern latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rate at which the Antarctic Ice Sheet loses mass is to a large degree controlled by ice-ocean interactions underneath small ice shelves, with the most sensitive regions concentrated in even smaller areas near grounding lines and local pinning points. Sufficient horizontal resolution is key to resolving critical ice-ocean processes in these regions, but difficult to afford in large-scale models used to predict the coupled response of the entire Antarctic Ice Sheet and the global ocean to climate change. In this study we describe the implementation of a framework that couples the ice sheet flow model Úa with the Finite Element Sea Ice Ocean Model (FESOM-1.4) in a configuration using depth-dependent vertical coordinates. The novelty of this approach is the use of horizontally unstructured grids in both model components, allowing us to resolve critical processes directly, while keeping computational demands within the range of feasibility. We use the Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project framework to verify that ice retreat and readvance is reliably simulated, and inaccuracies in mass, heat and salt conservation are small compared to the forcing signal. Further, we demonstrate the capabilities of our approach for a global ocean/Antarctic Ice Sheet domain. In a 39-year hindcast simulation (1979–2018) we resolve retreat behaviour of Pine Island Glacier, a known challenge for coarser resolution models. We conclude that Úa-FESOM is well suited to improve predictions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution over centennial time scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Melting icebergs provide nearly half of the total freshwater flux from ice shelves to the ocean, but the availability of accurate, data-constrained melting rate parametrisations limits the correct representation of this process in ocean models. Here, we investigate the melting of a vertical ice face in a warm, salt-stratified environment in a laboratory setting. Observations of the depth-dependent melting rates ${m}$ and boundary layer flow speed $U$ are reported for a range of initially uniform far-field ambient temperatures $T_a$ above ${10}\,^{\circ }{\rm C}$. Ice scallops are characteristic features observed in all experiments, with the width of the scallops consistent with the theory of double-diffusive layers. The morphology of the scallops changes from symmetric about the scallop centre in the colder experiments to asymmetric in the warmer experiments. Observed melting rates are consistent with a melting rate scaling of the form ${m}\propto U\,\Delta T_a$ proposed by previous work in less extreme parameter regimes, where $\Delta T_a$ is the magnitude of thermal driving between the ambient and ice–fluid interface. Our results indicate that ice scalloping is closely linked to the naturally convecting flow of the ambient fluid. Depth-averaged melting rates depend on the buoyancy frequency in the ambient fluid, and double-diffusive convection promotes a turbulent-flux regime distinct from that explained previously in an unstratified regime. These findings have implications for parametrising melting rates of icebergs and glaciers in numerical models or potential freshwater harvesting operations, and provide insights into the interplay between stratification and ice melting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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During the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; 3.264–3.025 Ma), atmospheric CO 2 concentrations were approximately 400 ppm, and the Antarctic Ice Sheet was substantially reduced compared to today. Antarctica is surrounded by the Southern Ocean, which plays a crucial role in the global oceanic circulation and climate regulation. Using results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2), we investigate Southern Ocean conditions during the mPWP with respect to the pre-industrial period. We find that the mean sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the Southern Ocean is 2.8 °C, while global mean SST warming is 2.4 °C. The enhanced warming is strongly tied to a dramatic decrease in sea ice cover over the mPWP Southern Ocean. We also see a freshening of the ocean (sub)surface, driven by an increase in precipitation over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. The warmer and fresher surface leads to a highly stratified Southern Ocean that can be related to weakening of the deep abyssal overturning circulation. Sensitivity simulations show that the decrease in sea ice cover and enhanced warming is largely a consequence of the reduction in the Antarctic Ice Sheet. In addition, the mPWP geographic boundary conditions are responsible for approximately half of the increase in mPWP SST warming, sea ice loss, precipitation, and stratification increase over the Southern Ocean. From these results, we conclude that a strongly reduced Antarctic Ice Sheet during the mPWP has a substantial influence on the state of the Southern Ocean and exacerbates the changes that are induced by a higher CO 2 concentration alone. This is relevant for the long-term future of the Southern Ocean, as we expect melting of the western Antarctic Ice Sheet in the future, an effect that is not currently taken into account in future projections by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) ensembles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southeast Greenland (SEG) is characterized by complex morphology and environmental processes that create dynamic habitats for resident marine top predators. Active glaciers producing solid ice discharge, freshwater flux, offshore sea ice transport, and seasonal landfast ice formation all contribute to a variable, transient environment within SEG fjord systems. Here, we investigate a selection of physical processes in SEG to provide a regional characterization to reveal physical system processes and support biological research. SEG fjords exhibit high fjord-to-fjord variability regarding bathymetry, size, shape, and glacial setting, influencing some processes more than others. For example, the timing of offshore sea ice formation in fall near SEG fjords progresses temporally southward across latitudes while the timing of offshore sea ice disappearance is less dependent on latitude. Rates of annual freshwater flux into fjords, in contrast, are highly variable across SEG, with annual average input values ranging from ~1x108 m3 to ~1.25x1010 m3 (~0.1–12.5 Gt) for individual fjords. Similarly, rates of solid ice discharge in SEG fjords vary widely – in part due to the irregular distribution of active glaciers across the study area (60° N–70° N). Landfast sea ice, assessed for 8 focus fjords, is seasonal and has a spatial distribution highly dependent on individual fjord topography. Conversely, glacial ice is deposited into fjord systems year-round, with the spatial distribution of glacier-derived ice dependent on glacier termini location. As climate change continues to affect SEG, the evolution of these metrics will be individually variable in their response, and next steps should include moving from characterization to system projection. Due to projected regional ice sheet persistence that will continue to feed glacial ice into fjords, it is possible that SEG could remain a long-term (century to millennia scale) refugia location for polar bears and other ice-dependent species, demonstrating a need for continued research on the SEG physical environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) in the Ross Sea after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was more significant than for any other Antarctic sector. Here we combined the available chronology of retreat with new mapping of seismically resolvable grounding zone wedges (GZWs). Mapping GZWs is important because they record the locations of former stillstands in the extent of grounded ice for individual ice streams during the overall retreat. Our analysis shows that the longest stillstands occurred early in the deglacial period and had millennial durations. Stillstands ended abruptly with retreat distances measured in the tens to hundreds of kilometers creating deep embayments in the extent of grounded ice across the Ross Sea. The location of embayments shifted through time. The available chronological data show that cessation of WAIS and East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) stillstands was highly asynchronous across at least 5000 years. There was a general shift to shorter stillstands throughout the deglacial period. The asynchronous collapse of individual catchments during the deglacial period suggests that the Ross Sea sector would have contributed to multiple episodes of relatively small-amplitude sea-level rise as the WAIS and EAIS retreated from the region. The high sinuosity of the modern grounding zone in the Ross Sea suggests that this style of retreat persists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Greenlandic fjords, located between the ice sheet and the ocean, are dynamic systems that can sustain highly variable levels of primary productivity and are sensitive to climate change. In our current climate trajectory, meltwater discharge is expected to significantly increase but its long‐term effects on fjord productivity are still poorly constrained. Paleo‐archives can offer valuable insights into long‐term effects. Here, we present two marine sediment core records from Nuup Kangerlua, Southwest Greenland. Our goal is to better understand to what extent, and on what time‐scales, climate fluctuations and associated glacier dynamic changes have impacted fjord productivity over the past ca. 3300 years. Our multiproxy records include diatom fluxes and assemblage composition, sediment biogeochemistry, and grain‐size distribution. Our study reveals that fjord productivity is tightly linked to regional climate variability; relatively higher productivity levels coincided with mild climate periods whereas the climate cooling of the last millennium led to a decrease in productivity. The diatom records suggest that lower productivity is associated with shorter or less intense summer blooms, increased sea‐ice cover and/or a stratified water column. Diatom assemblages demonstrate cold sea‐surface conditions around 1600 CE that might be linked to local advance of glaciers. Cold conditions and decreasing productivity culminated at 1850 CE, when glaciers in the fjord retreated and high glacial meltwater discharge would have altered the fjord hydrography, likely leading to limited nutrient availability. Our long‐term records support the idea that changing climate and cryosphere conditions have a non‐linear impact on the productivity of Greenlandic fjords. Key Points: Diatom assemblages record multiannual to multidecadal changes in the timing, magnitude, and composition of phytoplankton bloomsFjord productivity is linked to climate variability and to associated changes in marine‐terminating glaciersHigher fjord productivity coincided with warmer climate periods while the lowest productivity was recorded at the end of the Little Ice Age [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Major climatic-environmental transitions and ecological shifts occurred during the mid-Early Pleistocene, a time when external forcing conditions were relatively stable. To help elucidate their driving mechanisms, we perform linear-nonlinear analysis on global climate and oceanographic records. A synchronous change in these records, starting at 1.9–1.6 Ma, was accompanied by an increased obliquity signal and coeval climate regime shifts. We posit that bipolar cooling and an extension of terrestrial ice sheets across marine margins in subpolar regions increased the sensitivity of the global climate system to obliquity variations at this time. The resulting strengthening of meridional and zonal temperature gradients and shoaling of the tropical thermocline would cause enhanced aridification of East Africa and Arabia, and meanwhile a stronger East Asian winter and summer monsoon. Our study highlights the likely contribution of subpolar sea ice expansion on critical transitions in global climate and ecosystem evolution via its ability to modify the sensitivity of the Earth system to orbital variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Southern Ocean plays a major role in controlling the evolution of Antarctic glaciers and in turn their impact on sea level rise. We present the Southern Ocean high‐resolution (SOhi) simulation of the MITgcm ocean model to reproduce ice‐ocean interaction at 1/24° around Antarctica, including all ice shelf cavities and oceanic tides. We evaluate the model accuracy on the continental shelf using Marine Mammals Exploring the Oceans Pole to Pole data and compare the results with three other MITgcm ocean models (ECCO4, SOSE, and LLC4320) and the ISMIP6 temperature reconstruction. Below 400 m, all the models exhibit a warm bias on the continental shelf, but the bias is reduced in the high‐resolution simulations. We hypothesize some of the bias is due to an overestimation of sea ice cover, which reduces heat loss to the atmosphere. Both high‐resolution and accurate bathymetry are required to improve model accuracy around Antarctica. Plain Language Summary: Warm water from the Southern Ocean melts the glaciers and ice shelves around the Antarctic margin, leading to glacier de‐stabilization, and sea level rise. We present the Southern Ocean high‐resolution (SOhi) model to better represent ocean circulation and ice‐ocean interaction around Antarctica. We assess the accuracy of SOhi with in situ data from marine mammals and compare the results with three other ocean model simulations and to a baseline reference. All model results are slightly too warm on the continental shelf, but the higher‐resolution models yield colder waters in better agreement with observations. We attribute the warm bias to an overestimation of the sea ice cover in the ocean models. An improved bathymetry also significantly improves model accuracy in Antarctica. Key Points: High‐resolution ocean models with more complete physics are in better agreement with in situ ocean data than coarser resolution modelsAccurate bathymetry is essential to capture circulation pathways and warm water intrusions on the Antarctic continental shelfHigh‐resolution ocean models may remain too warm on the continental shelf because they over‐predict the sea ice cover [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study nonlinear resonant wave-wave interactions which occur when ocean waves propagate into a thin floating ice sheet. Using multiple-scale perturbation analysis, we obtain theoretical predictions of the wave amplitude evolution as a function of distance travelled past the ice edge for a semi-infinite ice sheet. The theoretical predictions are supported by a high-order spectral (HOS) method capable of simulating nonlinear interactions in both open water and the ice sheet. Using the HOS method, the amplitude evolution predictions are extended to multiple (coupled) triad interactions and a single ice sheet of finite length. We relate the amplitude evolution to mechanisms with strong frequency dependence - ice bending strain, related to ice breakup, as well as wave reflection and transmission. We show that, due to sum-frequency interactions, the maximum strain in the ice sheet can be more than twice that predicted by linearised theory. For an ice sheet of finite length, we show that nonlinear wave reflection and transmission coefficients depend on a parameter in terms of wave steepness and ice length, and can have values significantly different than those from linear theory. In particular, we show that nonlinear sum-frequency interactions can appreciably decrease the total wave energy transmitted past the ice sheet. This work has implications for understanding the occurrence of ice breakup, wave attenuation due to scattering in the marginal ice zone and the resulting ice floe size distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying and quantifying irreducible and reducible uncertainties in the Antarctic Ice Sheet response to future climate change is essential for guiding mitigation and adaptation policy decision. However, the impact of the irreducible internal climate variability, resulting from processes intrinsic to the climate system, remains poorly understood and quantified. Here, we characterise both the atmospheric and oceanic internal climate variability in a selection of three CMIP6 models (UKESM1-0-LL, IPSL-CM6A-LR and MPI-ESM1.2-HR) and estimate their impact on the Antarctic contribution to sea level over the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. To achieve this, we use a standalone ice-sheet model driven by the ocean through parameterised basal melting and by the atmosphere through emulated surface mass balance estimates. Internal climate variability affects the Antarctic contribution to changes in sea level until 2100 by 45 % to 93 % depending on the CMIP6 model. This may be a low estimate as the internal climate variability in the CMIP models is likely underestimated. For all the three climate models and for most Antarctic regions, the effect of atmospheric internal climate variability on the surface mass balance overwhelms the effect of oceanic internal climate variability on the dynamical ice-sheet mass loss by more than a factor of 3. The atmospheric internal climate variability is similar in the three CMIP6 models analysed in this study. Conversely, the amplitude of oceanic internal climate variability around Antarctica strongly depends on the climate model as underestimated convection, due to either biases in the sea-ice behaviour or in the ocean stratification, leads to weak mid-depth ocean variability. We then issue recommendations for future ice-sheet projections: use several members in the run and in its initialisation, favor 50-year averages to correct or weight simulations over the present-day period, and couple ice-sheet and climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The latest assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provided scenario‐based local sea level projections to 2150 and characterized the long‐term committed global mean sea level rise on 2,000‐ and 10,000‐year time horizons associated with peak surface warming levels. Turner et al. build on the scientific assessment of the IPCC to provide time‐continuous projections of future sea level rise to 2500. These projections fill an important knowledge gap to help inform coastal decision‐making processes and more fully quantify the benefits of mitigation actions in terms of limiting future sea level rise. However, limited understanding of ice instability processes remains a key scientific challenge and improved observational and modeling capability are critical to reducing uncertainties and monitoring the trajectory of observed change. Plain Language Summary: Sea level rise presents a major societal challenge for coastal communities and decision‐makers around the world. Due to the slow response of the oceans and ice sheets to global warming, sea level rise will continue for many centuries even under scenarios with strong reductions in future greenhouse gas emissions. In this issue Turner et al. provide a pioneering study to estimate the sea level rise to 2500 to support coastal adaptation planning and demonstrate the long‐term benefits of reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Key Points: Multi‐century sea level projections represent a key knowledge gap that are vital for long‐term coastal planningTurner et al. present new sea level projections to 2500 that represent a important step toward addressing this needTheir work also illustrates the benefits of mitigation action for limiting future sea level rise [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Marine Ice Sheet and Ocean Model Intercomparison Project - phase 2 (MISOMIP2) is a natural progression of previous and ongoing model intercomparison exercises that have focused on the simulation of ice-sheet and ocean processes in Antarctica. The previous exercises motivate the move towards realistic configurations as well as more diverse model parameters and resolutions. The main objective of MISOMIP2 is to investigate the performance of existing ocean and coupled ice-sheet-ocean models in a range of Antarctic environments, through comparisons to observational data. We will assess the status of ice-sheet-ocean modelling as a community and identify common characteristics of models that are best able to capture observed features. As models are highly tuned based on present-day data, we will also compare their sensitivity to prescribed abrupt atmospheric perturbations leading to either very warm or slightly warmer ocean conditions compared to present-day. The approach of MISOMIP2 is to welcome contributions of models as they are, including global and regional configurations, but we request standardised variables and common grids for the outputs. We target the analysis on two specific regions, the Amundsen Sea and the Weddell Sea, since they describe two different ocean environments and have been relatively well observed compared to other areas of Antarctica. An observational "MIPkit" synthesizing existing ocean and ice sheet observations for a common period is provided to evaluate ocean and ice sheet models in these two regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Marine Ice Sheet and Ocean Model Intercomparison Project – phase 2 (MISOMIP2) is a natural progression of previous and ongoing model intercomparison exercises that have focused on the simulation of ice-sheet and ocean processes in Antarctica. The previous exercises motivate the move towards realistic configurations as well as more diverse model parameters and resolutions. The main objective of MISOMIP2 is to investigate the performance of existing ocean and coupled ice-sheet–ocean models in a range of Antarctic environments, through comparisons to observational data. We will assess the status of ice-sheet–ocean modelling as a community and identify common characteristics of models that are best able to capture observed features. As models are highly tuned based on present-day data, we will also compare their sensitivity to prescribed abrupt atmospheric perturbations leading to either very warm or slightly warmer ocean conditions compared to present-day. The approach of MISOMIP2 is to welcome contributions of models as they are, including global and regional configurations, but we request standardised variables and common grids for the outputs. We target the analysis on two specific regions, the Amundsen Sea and the Weddell Sea, since they describe two different ocean environments and have been relatively well observed compared to other areas of Antarctica. An observational 'MIPkit' synthesizing existing ocean and ice sheet observations for a common period is provided to evaluate ocean and ice sheet models in these two regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coupled ice sheet-ocean models are increasingly being developed and applied to important questions pertaining to processes at the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheet margins, which play a pivotal role in ice sheet stability and sea level rise projections. One of the challenges of such coupled modelling activities is the timescale discrepancy between ice and ocean dynamics. This discrepancy, combined with the high computational cost of ocean models due to their finer temporal resolution, limits the time frame that can be modeled. In this study, we introduce an "accelerated forcing" approach to address the timescale discrepancy and thus improve computational efficiency in a framework designed to couple evolving ice geometry to ice shelf cavity circulation. This approach is based on the assumption that the ocean adjusts faster to imposed changes than the ice sheet, with the ocean viewed as being in a slowly varying quasi-steady state over timescales of ice geometry change. By assuming that the ocean-induced ice draft change rate during one coupling interval can be reflected by a quasi-steady state change rate during a shortened coupling interval (equal to the regular coupling interval divided by a constant factor), we can reduce the ocean model simulation duration. We first demonstrate that the mean cavity residence time, derived from stand-alone ocean simulations, can guide the selection of suitable scenarios for this approach. We then evaluate the accelerated forcing approach by comparing basal melting response under the accelerated forcing with that under the regular forcing based on idealized coupled ice sheet ocean experiments. Our results suggest that: the accelerated approach can yield comparable melting responses to those under the regular forcing when the model is subjected to steady far-field ocean conditions or time-varying conditions with timescales much shorter than the cavity residence time. However, it is not suitable when the timescale of the accelerated ocean conditions is not significantly different from the cavity residence time. When used carefully, the accelerated approach can be a useful tool in coupled ice sheet-ocean modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Professor William (Bill) Budd was a founding figure in Australian glaciology, and the first glaciology program leader of the Australian Antarctic Division (Fig. 1). Bill worked on an enormous range of glaciological and meteorological problems covering numerical modelling of ice sheets and glaciers, including surging glaciers; ice mechanics; ice crystallography; ice core paleoclimatic studies; relationships between sea ice and climate; and katabatic wind and snow drift studies. Bill introduced and led studies of ice sheet mass budget, ice rheology, ice sheet thermodynamics, iceberg distribution and movement, drifting snow, sea ice and climate interactions and much more. He initiated Australian ice core drilling (initially for study of ice dynamics and later for palaeoclimate research), radio echo sounding of ice thickness and satellite remote sensing of ice. Much of what Bill Budd initiated more than fifty years ago remains core to the present-day Australian Antarctic glaciological research program. Professor William (Bill) Budd, the first glaciology program leader of the Australian Antarctic Division, was a founding figure in Australian glaciological research. Bill worked on an enormous range of glaciological and climate problems. He developed numerical models to simulate the interactive response of Antarctica to global warming and the waxing and waning of ice ages. He introduced many new studies and technologies and much of what he initiated more than fifty years ago remains core to the present Australian Antarctic program. Photograph credit: Australian Academy of Science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Totten Ice Shelf (TIS) and Moscow University Ice Shelf (MUIS), along the Sabrina Coast of Wilkes Land, are the floating seaward terminuses of the second-largest freshwater reservoir in the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Being a marine ice sheet, it is vulnerable to the surrounding ocean conditions. Recent comprehensive oceanographic observations, including bathymetric measurements off the Sabrina Coast, have shed light on the widespread intrusion of warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) onto the continental shelf and the intense ice–ocean interaction beneath the TIS. However, the spatiotemporal coverage of the observation is very limited. Here, we use an ocean–sea ice–ice shelf model with updated bathymetry to better understand the regional ocean circulations and ocean–cryosphere interactions. The model successfully captured the widespread intrusions of mCDW, local sea ice production and the ocean heat and volume transports into the TIS cavity, facilitating an examination of the overturning ocean circulation within the ice shelf cavities and the resultant basal melting. We found notable differences in the temporal variability in ice shelf basal melting across the two adjacent ice shelves of the TIS and the western part of the MUIS. Ocean heat transport by mCDW controls the low-frequency interannual-to-decadal variability in ice–ocean interactions, but the sea ice production in the Dalton Polynya strongly modifies the signals, explaining the regional difference between the two ice shelves. The formation of a summertime eastward-flowing undercurrent beneath the westward-flowing Antarctic Slope Current is found to play an important role in the seasonal delivery of ocean heat to the continental shelf. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, from ∼26 to 20 ka BP) was the most recent period with large ice sheets in Eurasia and North America. At that time, global temperatures were 5–7 ∘ C lower than today, and sea level ∼125 m lower. LGM simulations are useful to understand earth system dynamics, including climate–ice sheet interactions, and to evaluate and improve the models representing those dynamics. Here, we present two simulations of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheet climate and surface mass balance (SMB) with the Community Earth System Model v2.1 (CESM2.1) using the Community Atmosphere Model v5 (CAM5) with prescribed ice sheets for two time periods that bracket the LGM period: 26 and 21 ka BP. CESM2.1 includes an explicit simulation of snow/firn compaction, albedo, refreezing, and direct coupling of the ice sheet surface energy fluxes with the atmosphere. The simulated mean snow accumulation is lowest for the Greenland and Barents–Kara Sea ice sheets (GrIS, BKIS) and highest for British and Irish (BIIS) and Icelandic (IcIS) ice sheets. Melt rates are negligible for the dry BKIS and GrIS, and relatively large for the BIIS, North American ice sheet complex (NAISC; i.e. Laurentide, Cordilleran, and Innuitian), Scandinavian ice sheet (SIS), and IcIS, and are reduced by almost a third in the colder (lower temperature) 26 ka BP climate compared with 21 ka BP. The SMB is positive for the GrIS, BKIS, SIS, and IcIS during the LGM (26 and 21 ka BP) and negative for the NAISC and BIIS. Relatively wide ablation areas are simulated along the southern (terrestrial), Pacific and Atlantic margins of the NAISC, across the majority of the BIIS, and along the terrestrial southern margin of the SIS. The integrated SMB substantially increases for the NAISC and BIIS in the 26 ka BP climate, but it does not reverse the negative sign. Summer incoming surface solar radiation is largest over the high interior of the NAISC and GrIS, and minimum over the BIIS and southern margin of NAISC. Summer net radiation is maximum over the ablation areas and minimum where the albedo is highest, namely in the interior of the GrIS, northern NAISC, and all of the BKIS. Summer sensible and latent heat fluxes are highest over the ablation areas, positively contributing to melt energy. Refreezing is largest along the equilibrium line altitude for all ice sheets and prevents 40 %–50 % of meltwater entering the ocean. The large simulated melt for the NAISC suggests potential biases in the climate simulation, ice sheet reconstruction, and/or highly non-equilibrated climate and ice sheet at the LGM time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) holds the potential to raise global sea levels by a staggering 57 m. Ice shelves, extensions of these ice sheets into the ocean, play a crucial role in stabilizing the upstream ice sheet. The Brunt Ice Shelf (BIS), located in the Southern Weddell Sea region and proximal to the continental shelf break, stands as a vital indicator for the region's response to global climate warming. Hence, this study systematically employs a range of remote sensing and field data, including remote sensing data from 1963 to 2023 (ARGON images, Landsat1-9 images, Sentinel-1 images, ICESat-2 altimetry data, etc.) and in-situ ice flow velocity data since 1956, to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the BIS's calving cycle and evolution over nearly six decades. The results reveal a significant exacerbation of both dynamical and structural instabilities in the BIS compared to the calving cycle in the 1970s. Combining analyses of air temperature from meteorological station, water temperature from ocean models and in-situ measurements such as Conductivity-Temperature-Depth profiles, the study suggests that the increased instability of the BIS is likely linked to the intrusion of warmer currents over the continental shelf. This research provides valuable insights into the evolving behavior of the BIS in response to changing climate conditions, underscoring the critical role of remote sensing data in advancing our understanding of these processes on a global scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent mass loss from ice sheets and ice shelves is now persistent and prolonged enough that it impacts downstream oceanographic conditions. To demonstrate this, we use an ensemble of coupled GISS‐E2.1‐G simulations forced with historical estimates of anomalous freshwater, in addition to other climate forcings, from 1990 through 2019. There are detectable differences in zonal‐mean sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea ice in the Southern Ocean, and in regional sea level around Antarctica and in the western North Atlantic. These impacts mostly improve the model's representation of historical changes, including reversing the forced trends in Antarctic sea ice. The changes in SST may have implications for estimates of the SST pattern effect on climate sensitivity and for cloud feedbacks. We conclude that the changes are sufficiently large that model groups should strive to include more accurate estimates of these drivers in all‐forcing historical simulations in future coupled model intercomparisons. Plain Language Summary: Simulations of recent historical periods are a key test of climate model reliability and skill. These model simulations require an accounting of all the drivers of climate change. We show that the impact of historical changes in freshwater fluxes from ice sheets and ice shelves on the ocean (through changes in salinity and stratification) are detectable in sea surface temperature and sea ice trends, and help improve the match between the modeled climate changes and observations. We recommend that more accurate estimates of these drivers be included in all climate simulations that do not explicitly model ice sheets and ice shelves. Key Points: The response to anomalous meltwater from ice sheets and shelves is large enough for it to be a forcing in historical climate simulationsWhen the GISS model includes these drivers, Southern Ocean SST and sea ice trends better match observationsSteric and dynamic impacts on regional sea level in parts of the North Atlantic and coastal Antarctica are significant [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the climate warms, the grounded ice sheet and floating ice shelves surrounding Antarctica are melting and releasing additional freshwater into the Southern Ocean. Nonetheless, almost all existing coupled climate models have fixed ice sheets and lack the physics required to represent the dominant sources of Antarctic melt. These missing ice dynamics represent a key uncertainty that is typically unaccounted for in current global climate change projections. Previous modelling studies that have imposed additional Antarctic meltwater have demonstrated regional impacts on Southern Ocean stratification, circulation, and sea ice, as well as remote changes in atmospheric circulation, tropical precipitation, and global temperature. However, these previous studies have used widely varying rates of freshwater forcing, have been conducted using different climate models and configurations, and have reached differing conclusions on the magnitude of meltwater–climate feedbacks. The Southern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica (SOFIA) initiative brings together a team of scientists to quantify the climate system response to Antarctic meltwater input along with key aspects of the uncertainty. In this paper, we summarize the state of knowledge on meltwater discharge from the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves to the Southern Ocean and explain the scientific objectives of our initiative. We propose a series of coupled and ocean–sea ice model experiments, including idealized meltwater experiments, historical experiments with observationally consistent meltwater input, and future scenarios driven by meltwater inputs derived from stand-alone ice sheet models. Through coordinating a multi-model ensemble of simulations using a common experimental design, open data archiving, and facilitating scientific collaboration, SOFIA aims to move the community toward better constraining our understanding of the climate system response to Antarctic melt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, seasonal changes in sea ice cover have been found to elevate basal melt rates of the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) calving front at sensitive regions. Melting at these sensitive regions has been found to impact ice sheet mass balance. However, the influence of these seasonally elevated basal melt rates on RIS flow variability is not yet fully understood. This paper aims to explore whether seasonal perturbations in basal melt rates of the RIS can explain intra-annual variations in ice flow measured by GNSS at four sites across the ice shelf. We use the automatic differentiation tool in the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) to identify regions of the RIS where changes in basal melt affect ice velocities at the GNSS sites. Next, we seasonally perturb Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation (MITgcm) basal melt rates in ISSM at these sensitive regions to try and replicate the GNSS ice flow observations. The GNSS observations display clear intra-annual velocity variability at the four sites, with two distinct peaks observed in austral summer and austral winter. We can replicate this intra-annual velocity variation for GNSS sites near the calving front by seasonally perturbing the basal melt rates at the identified sensitive regions of the ice shelf. We argue that the perturbed seasonal basal melt variability at sensitive regions along the calving front is a realistic scenario for the RIS. Thus, we suggest that the GNSS-recorded intra-annual velocity variations along the calving front could be partly driven by seasonal changes in basal melting today. We also try to replicate intra-annual velocity variability observed at the Siple Coast by seasonally perturbing basal melt rates at sensitive regions there. However, we are unable to replicate similar magnitudes of velocity variations to the GNSS measurements and suspect that the perturbed seasonal basal melt variability is unrealistic, with no observations of seasonally high basal melt rates at the Siple Coast grounding lines or pinning points. Thus, seasonal changes in basal melt cannot explain the observed intra-annual velocity variability at all the GNSS sites, and further work is needed. Our sensitivity maps highlight regions of the ice shelf where changes in basal melt most influence velocities, and are a valuable addition to fieldwork campaigns and modelling studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]