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The contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet is one of the most uncertain components of sea level rise to 2100. Ice sheet models are the primary tool for projecting future sea level contribution from continental ice sheets. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (ISMIP6) provided projections of the ice sheets contribution to sea level over the 21st century. It quantified uncertainty due to ice sheet model, climate scenario, forcing climate model and uncertain model parameters. We present simulations following the ISMIP6 framework with the BISICLES ice sheet model, alongside new experiments extending the ISMIP6 protocol to more comprehensively explore uncertain ice sheet processes. These results contributed to Antarctic projections of Edwards et al. (2021), which formed the basis of sea level projections for the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR6). The BISICLES experiments presented here show the important interplay between surface mass balance forcing and ocean driven melt, with high warming, high accumulation forcing conditions leading to mass gain (negative sea level contribution) under low sensitivity to ocean driven melt. Conversely, we show that when sensitivity to ocean warming is high, ocean melting drives increased mass loss despite high accumulation. Finally, we show that collapse of ice shelves due to surface warming increases sea level contribution by 25 mm for both moderate and high sensitivity of ice shelf melting to ocean forcing tested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The predicted Antarctic contribution to global‐mean sea‐level rise is one of the most uncertain among all major sources. Partly this is because of instability mechanisms of the ice flow over deep basins. Errors in bedrock topography can substantially impact the projected resilience of glaciers against such instabilities. Here we analyze the Pine Island Glacier topography to derive a statistical model representation. Our model allows for inhomogeneous and spatially dependent uncertainties and avoids unnecessary smoothing from spatial averaging or interpolation. A set of topography realizations is generated representing our best estimate of the topographic uncertainty in ice sheet model simulations. The bedrock uncertainty alone creates a 5%–25% uncertainty in the predicted sea level rise contribution at year 2100, depending on friction law and climate forcing. Pine Island Glacier simulations on this new set are consistent with simulations on the BedMachine reference topography but diverge from Bedmap2 simulations. Plain Language Summary: We investigate the impact of uncertainties in the elevation of the bedrock underneath the ice of a particularly vulnerable glacier in Antarctica. We propose a new approach to better estimate how much future projections depend on knowledge of bedrock elevation. The main focus of this study is to represent the current understanding of the bedrock elevation as closely as possible so that our simulations accurately reflect the extent of our knowledge of the future glacier behavior. In summary, we find that the mass of ice lost in simulations for year 2100, which contributes to the global mean sea level, can be affected by up to 25%. This highlights the value of closely‐spaced bedrock measurement and of careful consideration of related uncertainties in ice‐sheet simulations. Key Points: Uncertainty in topography estimates has a significant impact on predictions for all tested friction lawsSimulations with BedMachine and statistically generated topographies are more sensitive to upper‐end climate forcing than with Bedmap2Pine Island Glacier is likely to transition into a more unstable state late mid‐century for upper‐end climate forcing [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The physical interactions between ice sheets and the atmosphere and ocean around them are major factors in determining the state of the climate system, yet many current Earth System models omit them entirely or treat them very simply. In this work we describe how models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been incorporated into the global U.K. Earth System model (UKESM1) via substantial technical developments with a two‐way coupling that passes fluxes of energy and water, and the topography of the ice sheet surface and ice shelf base, between the component models. File‐based coupling outside the running model executables is used throughout to pass information between the components, which we show is both physically appropriate and convenient within the UKESM1 structure. Ice sheet surface mass balance is computed in the land surface model using multi‐layer snowpacks in subgrid‐scale elevation ranges and compares well to the results of regional climate models. Ice shelf front discharge forms icebergs, which drift and melt in the ocean. Ice shelf basal mass balance is simulated using the full three‐dimensional ocean model representation of the circulation in ice‐shelf cavities. We show a range of example results, including from simulations with changes in ice sheet height and thickness of hundreds of meters, and changes in ice sheet grounding line and land‐terminating margin of many tens of kilometres, demonstrating that the coupled model is computationally stable when subject to significant changes in ice sheet geometry. Plain Language Summary: Loss of mass from the ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica makes an important contribution to global mean sea level (GMSL) rise, and one that will increase significantly in the coming decades and centuries. Our limited ability to predict exactly how the Earth's ice sheets will interact with the changing climate is the main reason we cannot say with confidence whether GMSL will rise by tens of centimeters or a meter or more in this century alone. One way to develop our understanding is to build tools capable of modeling the co‐evolution of ice sheets and climate, a difficult task made yet more challenging by the wide range of spatial‐ and time‐scales that need to be considered to model these systems simultaneously. UKESM1 is a state‐of‐the‐art Earth System model used to predict future climate change. Our work allows UKESM1 to be run with interactive models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. This is a new and complex model, and there are still problems to solve before such tools can be used to produce complete projections of GMSL rise. Our work nevertheless allows us to investigate new areas of climate physics in ways that have not been possible before. Key Points: A CMIP6 Earth System Model has been coupled to interactive models of both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets for the first timeSubstantial technical challenges have been overcome, our solutions and their limitations are describedOur system simulates climate and ice sheet physics reasonably well, and is computationally stable when subject to extreme ice sheet retreat [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment ice streams in West Antarctica is a major source of uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. Physically based ice flow models rely on a number of parameters that represent unobservable quantities and processes, and accounting for uncertainty in these parameters can lead to a wide range of dynamic responses. Here we perform a Bayesian calibration of a perturbed parameter ensemble, in which we score each ensemble member on its ability to match the magnitude and broad spatial pattern of present‐day observations of ice sheet surface elevation change. We apply an idealized melt rate forcing to extend the most likely simulations forward to 2200. We find that diverging grounding line response between ensemble members drives an exaggeration in the upper tail of the distribution of sea level rise by 2200, demonstrating that extreme future outcomes cannot be excluded. Key Points: We calibrate an ensemble of high‐resolution ice‐flow simulations of the Amundsen Sea Embayment, using surface elevation change observationsThe upper tail of the distribution of sea level contribution produced by the calibrated ensemble becomes more exaggerated over timeProcess‐based modeling is essential for projecting the contribution of ice sheets to sea level [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) remains the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. A likely climate‐driven vulnerability of the AIS is thinning of floating ice shelves resulting from surface‐melt‐driven hydrofracture or incursion of relatively warm water into subshelf ocean cavities. The resulting melting, weakening, and potential ice shelf collapse reduces shelf buttressing effects. Upstream ice flow accelerates, causing thinning, grounding‐line retreat, and potential ice sheet collapse. While high‐resolution projections have been performed for localized Antarctic regions, full‐continent simulations have typically been limited to low‐resolution models. Here we quantify the vulnerability of the entire present‐day AIS to regional ice shelf collapse on millennial timescales treating relevant ice flow dynamics at the necessary ∼1‐km resolution. Collapse of any of the ice shelves dynamically connected to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is sufficient to trigger ice sheet collapse in marine‐grounded portions of the WAIS. Vulnerability elsewhere appears limited to localized responses. Plain Language Summary: The biggest uncertainty in near‐future sea level rise (SLR) comes from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Antarctic ice flows in relatively fast‐moving ice streams. At the ocean, ice flows into enormous floating ice shelves that push back on their feeder ice streams, buttressing them and slowing their flow. Melting and loss of ice shelves due to climate changes can result in faster‐flowing, thinning, and retreating ice leading to accelerated rates of global SLR. To learn where Antarctica is vulnerable to ice shelf loss, we divided it into 14 sectors, applied extreme melting to each sector's floating ice shelves in turn, then ran our ice flow model 1,000 years into the future for each case. We found three levels of vulnerability. The greatest vulnerability came from attacking any of the three ice shelves connected to West Antarctica, where much of the ice sits on bedrock lying below sea level. Those dramatic responses contributed around 2 m of SLR. The second level came from four other sectors, each with a contribution between 0.5 and 1 m. The remaining sectors produced little to no contribution. We examined combinations of sectors, determining that sectors behave independently of each other for at least a century. Key Points: Sustained ice‐shelf loss in any of the Amundsen Sea, Ronne, or Ross sectors can lead to wholesale West Antarctic ungrounding and collapseEven with extreme forcing, loss is relatively modest for the initial century, increasing markedly after in West Antarctic collapse scenariosModeling suggests Antarctic drainage basins can be assumed to be dynamically independent for one to two centuries before they begin to interact [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coupled ice sheet-ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of marine ice sheets and tidewater glaciers, from process studies to future projections of ice mass loss and sea level rise. The Marine Ice Sheet-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (MISOMIP) is a community effort aimed at designing and coordinating a series of model intercomparison projects (MIPs) for model evaluation in idealized setups, model verification based on observations, and future projections for key regions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Here we describe computational experiments constituting three interrelated MIPs for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities. These consist of ice sheet experiments under the Marine Ice Sheet MIP third phase (MISMIP+), ocean experiments under the Ice Shelf-Ocean MIP second phase (ISOMIP+) and coupled ice sheet-ocean experiments under the MISOMIP first phase (MISOMIP1). All three MIPs use a shared domain with idealized bedrock topography and forcing, allowing the coupled simulations (MISOMIP 1) to be compared directly to the individual component simulations (MISMIP+ and ISOMIP+). The experiments, which have qualitative similarities to Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf and the adjacent region of the Amundsen Sea, are designed to explore the effects of changes in ocean conditions, specifically the temperature at depth, on basal melting and ice dynamics. In future work, differences between model results will form the basis for the evaluation of the participating models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]