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Improving the resilience of the economy in the face of uncertain climate change damages involves irreversible investments to scale up new technologies that are less vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The benefit of having such options includes the avoided welfare cost of diverting consumption to scaling up the new technology after production possibilities have been diminished by climate change impacts. This needs to be balanced against the upfront cost of scaling up a technology that is potentially less productive than incumbent technologies. The paper uses a real options approach to investigate this trade-off, based on numerical simulation of a multi-period model of economic growth and climate change impacts that includes a one-time cost associated with scaling up the alternative technology. The value of the option provided by investment in the more resilient technology depends on the ex-ante volatility of climate change damages, as well as how rapidly climate change degrades the productivity of the economy's established technology. In addition, the size of scale-up cost that leaves the economy indifferent between investing and not investing in the new technology can be used to define the value of early investment in the less climate change–vulnerable technology as a sort of call option.

This strategic framework serves to guide and support the operational response of the World Bank Group (WBG) to new development challenges posed by global climate change. Unabated, climate change threatens to reverse hard-earned development gains. The poorest countries and communities will suffer the earliest and the most. Yet they depend on actions by other nations, developed and developing. While climate change is an added cost and risk to development, a well-designed and implemented global climate policy can also bring new economic opportunities to developing countries. Climate change demands unprecedented global cooperation involving a concerted action by countries at different development stages supported by "measurable, reportable, and verifiable" transfer of finance and technology to developing countries. Trust of developing countries in equity and fairness of a global climate policy and neutrality of the supporting institutions is critical for such cooperation to succeed. Difficulties with mobilizing resources for achieving the millennium development goals and with agreeing on global agricultural trade underscore the political challenges. The framework will help the WBG maintain the effectiveness of its core mission of supporting growth and poverty reduction. While recognizing added costs and risks of climate change and an evolving global climate policy. The WBG top priority will be to build collaborative relations with developing country partners and provide them customized demand-driven support through its various instruments from financing to technical assistance to constructive advocacy. It will give considerable attention to strengthening resilience of economies and communities to increasing climate risks and adaptation. The operational focus will be on improving knowledge and capacity, including learning by doing. The framework will guide operational programs of WBG entities to support actions whose benefits to developing countries are robust under significant uncertainties about future climate policies and impacts-actions that have "no regrets."