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We create and test a framework for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia using Monte Carlo simulation, recently developed models of seismic source zones and modern ground-motion prediction equations (GMPE). A generalized seismic source model containing 43 zones has been compiled and seven GMPEs were selected. The assessment was performed on the basis of 100 synthetic seismic sub-catalogs with duration 10,000 years each. The hazard curves were calculated for the nodes of 0.25°×0.25° grid and the hazard maps were created in terms of PGA, PGV and seismic intensity for rock sites. Preliminary sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the importance of the input parameters and the level of uncertainty introduced by the parameters. The developed framework and the results of PSHA provide a benchmark for the comprehensive seismic hazard and seismic risk analysis and up-to-date seismic hazard maps for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Understanding of lithosphere dynamics, tectonic stress localization, earthquake occurrences, and seismic hazards has significantly advanced during the last decades. Meanwhile, despite the major advancements in geophysical sciences, yet we do not see a decline in earthquake disaster impacts and losses. Although earthquake disasters are mainly associated with significant vulnerability of society, comprehensive seismic hazards assessments and earthquake forecasting could contribute to preventive measures aimed to reduce impacts of earthquakes. Modeling of lithosphere dynamics and earthquake simulations coupled with a seismic hazard analysis can provide a better assessment of potential ground shaking due to earthquakes. Here we present a block-and-fault dynamics (BAFD) model, which simulates earthquakes due to lithosphere dynamics and allows for studying the influence of fault network properties and regional movements on seismic patterns. The model's performance is analyzed in terms of reproduction of basic features of the observed seismicity such as the frequency-magnitude relationship, clustering of earthquakes, occurrences of large events, fault slip rates, and earthquake mechanisms. Several studies related to the application of the BAFD model to the following earthquake-prone regions are reviewed: the southeastern Carpathians, Caucasus, the western India, Tibet-Himalaya, and the Sunda Arc. We examine then a new approach to seismic hazard analysis, which is based on instrumentally recorded, historical and BAFD-simulated earthquakes, and analyze how earthquake modeling can assist in hazard assessment. Finally, we discuss perspectives in modeling of earthquake occurrences and improvements in hazard assessment. Highlights • Dynamic modeling of lithospheric blocks and faults is examined. • Simulated large events in several seismic hazard-prone regions are reviewed. • Hazard assessment utilizes recorded, historical, and simulated earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]