Search

We propose the use of variable resolution boundaries based on central Voronoi tessellations (CVTs) to spatially aggregate building exposure models for risk assessment to various natural hazards. Such a framework is especially beneficial when the spatial distribution of the considered hazards presents intensity measures with contrasting footprints and spatial correlations, such as in coastal environments. This work avoids the incorrect assumption that a single intensity value from hazards with low spatial correlation (e.g. tsunami) can be considered to be representative within large-sized geo-cells for physical vulnerability assessment, without, at the same time, increasing the complexity of the overall model. We present decoupled earthquake and tsunami scenario-based risk estimates for the residential building stock of Lima (Peru). We observe that earthquake loss models for far-field subduction sources are practically insensitive to the exposure resolution. Conversely, tsunami loss models and associated uncertainties depend on the spatial correlations of the hazard intensities as well as on the resolution of the exposure models. We note that for the portfolio located in the coastal area exposed to both perils in Lima, the ground shaking dominates the losses for lower-magnitude earthquakes, whilst tsunamis cause the most damage for larger-magnitude events. For the latter, two sets of existing empirical flow depth fragility models are used, resulting in large differences in the calculated losses. This study, therefore, raises awareness about the uncertainties associated with the selection of fragility models and spatial aggregation entities for exposure modelling and loss mapping.

Controls on the deformation pattern (shortening mode and tectonic style) of orogenic forelands during tectonic shortening remain poorly understood. Here, we use high-resolution 2D thermomechanical ...

Possibilities of forecasting of a tsunami characteristics for areas with small base of historical tsunami are discussed. The PTHA method (Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment), which cornerstone the statistical analysis of real and predictive earthquakes which number is rather big, with the subsequent calculation of waves of a Tsunami from possible earthquakes is for this purpose used. This method for assessment of long-term tsunami danger on the Mediterranean coast of Egypt is used. It is shown that the predicted wave heights change along the coast that is caused by heterogeneity of topography of a coastal zone and features of the chart of radiation of a tsunami in the sea. The predicted wave heights for 1000 years change within 0.83.4 m.

When the earthquake rupture is complex and ruptures of multiple fault segments contribute to the total energy release, the produced wavefield is the superposition of individual signals produced by single subevents. Resolving source complexity for large, shallow earthquakes can be used to improve ground shaking and surface slip estimations, and thus tsunami models. The 2018 Mw 7.9 Alaska earthquake showed such complexity: according to previous studies, the rupture initiated as a right-lateral strike-slip fault on a N-S oriented fault plane, but then jumped onto a left-lateral strike-slip fault oriented westward. Rupture complexity and presence of multiple subevents may characterize a number of other earthquakes. However, even when individual subevents are spatially and/or temporally separated, it is very difficult to identify them from far field recordings. In order to model complex earthquakes we have implemented a multiple double couple inversion scheme within Grond, a tool devoted to the robust characterization of earthquake source parameters included in the Pyrocko software. Given the large magnitude of the target earthquake, we perform our source inversions using broadband body waves data (P and S phases) at teleseismic distances. Our approach starts with a standard moment tensor inversion, which allows to get more insights about the centroid location and overall moment release. These values can then be used to constrain the double source inversion. We discuss the performance of the inversion for the Alaska earthquake, using synthetic and real data. First, we generated realistic synthetic waveforms for a two-subevents source, assuming double couple sources with the strike-slip mechanisms proposed for the Alaska earthquake. We model the synthetic dataset both using a moment tensor and a double double couple source, and demonstrate the stability of the double double couple inversion, which is able to reconstruct the two focal mechanisms, the moment ratio and the relative centroid locations of the two subevents. Synthetic tests show that the inversion accuracy can be in some cases reduced, in presence of noisy data and when the interevent time between subevents is short. A larger noise addition affects the retrieval of the focal mechanism orientations only in some cases, but in general all the parameters were well retrieved. Then, we test our tool using real data for the earthquake. The single source inversion shows that the centroid is shifted 27 s in time and 40 km towards NE with respect to the original assumed location retrieved from the gCMT catalogue. The following double double couple source inversion resolves two subevents with right-lateral and left-lateral strike-slip focal mechanisms and Mw 7.6 and 7.8 respectively. The subevent centroids are separated by less than 40 km in space and less than 20 s in time.

Subduction systems globally terminate, allowing plate-motion to be transferred from the oceanic megathrust onto continental and/or oceanic transform faults. The mechanism of this kinematic transition over earthquake timescales is, however, poorly understood due to a lack of relevant data. Here, we study the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura Earthquake in New Zealand, the first large instrumentally-recorded earthquake across a subduction-termination, to investigate this transfer mechanism in detail. We find that the Kaikōura Earthquake, unlike standard subduction earthquakes globally, involved a predominance (∼80%) of coseismic-slip on upper-plate faults and minor triggered-slip on the underlying oceanic subduction-thrust. In the months following the earthquake, the subduction-thrust accommodated most of the earthquake's afterslip down-dip of its co-seismic rupture zone. This top-down strain-release mechanism is in accord with local geological, geodetic and historical seismicity data which suggest that the bulk of plate-convergence (>75%) is accommodated in the upper-plate. We suggest, therefore, that this alternative strain-release mechanism, which is distinct from standard plate-boundary earthquakes, is characteristic of subduction-terminations and results in the majority of seismic/tsunami hazard being on steep near-surface faults.

Historical data indicate that the Middle America subduction zone represents the primary tsunamigenic source that affects the Central American coastal areas. In recent years, the tsunami potential in the region has mainly been assessed using maximum credible earthquakes or historical events showing moderate tsunami potential. However, such deterministic scenarios are not provided with their adequate probability of occurrence. In this study, earthquake rates have been combined with tsunami numerical modeling in order to assess probabilistic tsunami hazard posed by local and regional seismic sources. The common conceptual framework for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment has been adapted to estimate the probabilities of exceeding certain tsunami amplitudes along the Central American Pacific coast. The study area encompasses seismic sources related to the Central America, Colombia and Ecuador subduction zones. In addition to the classical subduction inter-plate events, this study also incorporates sources at the outer rise, within the Caribbean crust as well as intraslab sources. The study yields conclusive remarks showing that the highest hazard is posed to northwestern Costa Rica, El Salvador and the Nicaraguan coast, southern Colombia and northern Ecuador. In most of the region it is 50 to 80% likely that the tsunami heights will exceed 2 m for the 500 year time exposure (T). The lowest hazard appears to be in the inner part of the Fonseca Gulf, Honduras. We also show the large dependence of PTHA on model assumptions. While the approach taken in this study represents a thorough step forward in tsunami hazard assessment in the region, we also highlight that the integration of all possible uncertainties will be necessary to generate rigorous hazard models required for risk planning.

Applying probabilistic methods to infrequent but devastating natural events is intrinsically challenging. For tsunami analyses, a suite of geophysical assessments should be in principle evaluated because of the different causes generating tsunamis (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic activity, meteorological events, and asteroid impacts) with varying mean recurrence rates. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analyses (PTHAs) are conducted in different areas of the world at global, regional, and local scales with the aim of understanding tsunami hazard to inform tsunami risk reduction activities. PTHAs enhance knowledge of the potential tsunamigenic threat by estimating the probability of exceeding specific levels of tsunami intensity metrics (e.g., run-up or maximum inundation heights) within a certain period of time (exposure time) at given locations (target sites); these estimates can be summarized in hazard maps or hazard curves. This discussion presents a broad overview of PTHA, including (i) sources and mechanisms of tsunami generation, emphasizing the variety and complexity of the tsunami sources and their generation mechanisms, (ii) developments in modeling the propagation and impact of tsunami waves, and (iii) statistical procedures for tsunami hazard estimates that include the associated epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. Key elements in understanding the potential tsunami hazard are discussed, in light of the rapid development of PTHA methods during the last decade and the globally distributed applications, including the importance of considering multiple sources, their relative intensities, probabilities of occurrence, and uncertainties in an integrated and consistent probabilistic framework.

Historical data indicate that the Middle America subduction zone represents the primary tsunamigenic source that affects the Central American coastal areas. In recent years, the tsunami potential in the region has mainly been assessed using maximum credible earthquakes or historical events showing moderate tsunami potential. However, such deterministic scenarios are not provided with their adequate probability of occurrence. In this study, earthquake rates have been combined with tsunami numerical modeling in order to assess probabilistic tsunami hazard posed by local and regional seismic sources. The common conceptual framework for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment has been adapted to estimate the probabilities of exceeding certain tsunami amplitudes along the Central American Pacific coast. The study area encompasses seismic sources related to the Central America, Colombia and Ecuador subduction zones. In addition to the classical subduction inter-plate events, this study also incorporates sources at the outer rise, within the Caribbean crust as well as intra-slab sources. The study yields conclusive remarks showing that the highest hazard is posed to northwestern Costa Rica, El Salvador and the Nicaraguan coast, southern Colombia and northern Ecuador. In most of the region it is 50 to 80% likely that the tsunami heights will exceed 2 m for the 500 year time exposure (T). The lowest hazard appears to be in the inner part of the Fonseca Gulf, Honduras. We also show the large dependence of PTHA on model assumptions. While the approach taken in this study represents a thorough step forward in tsunami hazard assessment in the region, we also highlight that the integration of all possible uncertainties will be necessary to generate rigorous hazard models required for risk planning.

Flank instability and sector collapses, which pose major threats, are common on volcanic islands. On 22 Dec 2018, a sector collapse event occurred at Anak Krakatau volcano in the Sunda Strait, triggering a deadly tsunami. Here we use multiparametric ground-based and space-borne data to show that prior to its collapse, the volcano exhibited an elevated state of activity, including precursory thermal anomalies, an increase in the island’s surface area, and a gradual seaward motion of its southwestern flank on a dipping décollement. Two minutes after a small earthquake, seismic signals characterize the collapse of the volcano’s flank at 13:55 UTC. This sector collapse decapitated the cone-shaped edifice and triggered a tsunami that caused 430 fatalities. We discuss the nature of the precursor processes underpinning the collapse that culminated in a complex hazard cascade with important implications for the early detection of potential flank instability at other volcanoes., On 22 December 2018, the western flank of Anak Krakatau collapsed into the sea of the Sunda Strait triggering a tsunami which killed approximately 430 people and displaced 33,000. Here, the authors show that Anak Krakatau exhibited an elevated state of activity several months prior to the collapse, including precursory thermal anomalies, an increase in the island’s surface area, and a gradual seaward motion of the southwestern flank.

Despite having been rather seismically quiescent for the last decades, the Makran subduction zone is capable of hosting destructive earthquakes and tsunami. In particular, the well-known thrust event in 1945 (Balochistan earthquake) led to about 4000 casualties. Nowadays, the coastal regions are more densely populated and vulnerable to similar events. Furthermore, some recent publications discuss rare but significantly larger events at the Makran subduction zone as possible scenarios. We analyze the instrumental and historical seismicity at the subduction plate interface and generate various synthetic earthquake catalogs spanning 300 000 years with varying magnitude-frequency relations. For every event in the catalogs we compute estimated tsunami heights and present the resulting tsunami hazard along the coasts of Pakistan, Iran and Oman in the form of probabilistic tsunami hazard curves. We show how the hazard results depend on variation of the Gutenberg–Richter parameters and especially maximum magnitude assumption.

The Middle America convergent margin is capable of generating tsunamigenic earthquakes as portrayed through historical data. However, historical tsunamigenic sources appear to be unevenly distributed along the Middle America convergent margin. The last significant tsunami generated along the southern segments of this convergent margin occurred in 1992 causing 10-m run-up in Nicaragua. In particular, the Costa Rican Pacific coast has not clear evidences of significant wave heights or local tsunami events. Partly this could be explained by the lack of historical data since paleotsunami information is not available; thus, no tsunami data beyond 500 years could be found. Nevertheless, large rupture areas or shallow ruptures offshore Costa Rica cannot be neglected. We hereby present the results of numerical simulations aimed to assess the tsunamigenic potential of seismic sources offshore southern Central America. Our approach follows the deterministic method where earthquake maximum credible scenarios are assessed. We assumed hundreds of fault ruptures to obtain surface displacement and tsunami wave heights at the shoreline to assess the tsunami threat along south Nicaragua and Costa Rica. These fault scenarios are based on historical earthquakes as well as on the newest geodetic studies that provided slip deficit. Shallow part of locked segments in this region could release accumulated stress in the near future and may generate tsunamis similar to the 1992 Nicaragua M w 7.6 and 2012 El Salvador M w 7.4 tsunami earthquakes. The numerical simulations presented in this study show that maximum wave heights up to 2–6 m could affect the southern Pacific coast of Central America even when moderate-to-large M w 7.0–8.0 interplate or outer rise earthquakes occur.

On 16 September 2015, the M-W = 8.2 Illapel megathrust earthquake ruptured the Central Chilean margin. Combining inversions of displacement measurements and seismic waveforms with high frequency (HF) teleseismic backprojection, we derive a comprehensive description of the rupture, which also predicts deep ocean tsunami wave heights. We further determine moment tensors and obtain accurate depth estimates for the aftershock sequence. The earthquake nucleated near the coast but then propagated to the north and updip, attaining a peak slip of 5-6 m. In contrast, HF seismic radiation is mostly emitted downdip of the region of intense slip and arrests earlier than the long period rupture, indicating smooth slip along the shallow plate interface in the final phase. A superficially similar earthquake in 1943 with a similar aftershock zone had a much shorter source time function, which matches the duration of HF seismic radiation in the recent event, indicating that the 1943 event lacked the shallow slip.

SUMMARY The various uncertainties in the earthquake-triggered tsunami threat assessment are difficult to quantify and/or integrate into the tsunami early warning process. Uncertainties in the (seismic) input parameters and the lack of knowledge about the earthquake slip distribution contribute most to the total uncertainty in real-time evaluated tsunami assessment. We present a method how to integrate and quantify these uncertainties in the warning process by evaluating a tsunami warning level probability distribution with a Bayesian network (BN) approach. As soon as an earthquake is detected, the seismic source parameter estimates are evaluated and a probabilistic overview on different tsunami warning levels is provided, feasible to support a decision maker at a warning center with important additional data. A BN system has been developed exemplarily for the region Sumatra. In this paper, we describe the method of BN generation by ancestral sampling, we critically analyse the assumptions made and weight the pro and cons of the BN approach. A case study demonstrates the workflow of the BN system in real-time and reveals the promising power of a BN analysis in the framework of early warning.

We present the GITEWS approach to source modeling for the tsunami early warning in Indonesia. Near-field tsunami implies special requirements to both warning time and details of source characterization. To meet these requirements, we employ geophysical and geological information to predefine a maximum number of rupture parameters. We discretize the tsunamigenic Sunda plate interface into an ordered grid of patches (150×25) and employ the concept of Green's functions for forward and inverse rupture modeling. Rupture Generator, a forward modeling tool, additionally employs different scaling laws and slip shape functions to construct physically reasonable source models using basic seismic information only (magnitude and epicenter location). GITEWS runs a library of semi- and fully-synthetic scenarios to be extensively employed by system testing as well as by warning center personnel teaching and training. Near real-time GPS observations are a very valuable complement to the local tsunami warning system. Their inversion provides quick (within a few minutes on an event) estimation of the earthquake magnitude, rupture position and, in case of sufficient station coverage, details of slip distribution.

The Indonesian archipelago is known for the occurrence of catastrophic earthquake-generated tsunamis along the Sunda Arc. The tsunami hazard associated with submarine landslides however has not been fully addressed. In this paper, we compile the known tsunamigenic events where landslide involvement is certain and summarize the properties of published landslides that were identified with geophysical methods. We depict novel mass movements, found in newly available bathymetry, and determine their key parameters. Using numerical modeling, we compute possible tsunami scenarios. Furthermore, we propose a way of identifying landslide tsunamis using an array of few buoys with bottom pressure units.

Our analysis of new bathymetric data reveals six submarine landslides at the eastern Sunda margin between central Java and Sumba Island, Indonesia. Their volumes range between 1 km³ in the Java fore-arc basin up to 20 km³ at the trench off Sumba and Sumbawa. We estimate the potential hazard of each event by modeling the corresponding tsunami and its run-up on nearby coasts. Four slides are situated remarkably close to the epicenter of the 1977 tsunamigenic Sumba M w = 8.3 earthquake. However, comparison of documented tsunami run-up heights and arrival times with our modeling results neither allows us to confirm nor can we falsify the hypothesis that the earthquake triggered these submarine landslides.

The Dead Sea transform system (DST) is the boundary between the Arabian and African plates, where left-lateral transform motion has largely accommodated the opening of the Red Sea basin during the last 15-20 My. One of the key questions related to this plate boundary is whether the DST crosses the crust and mantle lithosphere, and how the rheologically different units composing the lithosphere interact during strong deformation? Another major question is how important is the rifting (transform-perpendicular extension) deformation component at the DST? We address these questions using the internally consistent finite element thermo-mechanical modelling of the lithospheric deformation constrained by high-resolution geophysical observations and especially by the recent geophysical data of the DESERT Project. From our modelling, we conclude that the DST lithospheric structure is controlled by the plate-scale transform displacement within a relatively cold and strong lithosphere. In such a lithosphere, shear strain is localized in a narrow (20-40 km wide) vertical decoupling zone (VDZ), which crosses the entire lithosphere and even continues into the asthenosphere. In the upper crust the deformation localizes at one or two major faults located at the top of this zone. The location of the VDZ is controlled by the temperature of the uppermost mantle prior to the transform motion. Most of the lithospheric structures imaged along the DESERT seismic line is explained by the 105 km transform motion combined with less than 4 km transform-perpendicular extension. Uplift of the Arabian Shield adjacent to the DST can be explained by young ($

[1] Estimating the occurrence probability of natural disasters is critical for setting construction standards and, more generally, prioritizing risk mitigation efforts. Tsunami hazard in the Mediterranean region has traditionally been estimated by considering so-called “most credible” scenarios of tsunami impact for limited geographical regions, but little attention has been paid to the probability of any given scenario. We present here the first probabilistic estimate of earthquake-generated tsunami hazard for the entire Mediterranean Sea. We estimate the annual probability of exceeding a given tsunami amplitude at any coastal location in the region by applying a Monte Carlo based technique. Earthquake activity rates are estimated from the observed seismicity, and tsunami impact is derived from deterministic tsunami wave propagation scenarios. The highest hazard is in the eastern Mediterranean owing to earthquakes along the Hellenic Arc, but most of the Mediterranean coastline is prone to tsunami impact. Our method allows us to identify the main sources of tsunami hazard at any given location and to investigate the potential for issuing timely tsunami warnings. We find that the probability of a tsunami wave exceeding 1 m somewhere in the Mediterranean in the next 30 years is close to 100%. This underlines the urgent need for a tsunami warning system in the region.

Submarine landslides can generate local tsunamis with high run-ups, posing a hazard to human lives and coastal facilities. Both ancient (giant Storegga slide off Norwegian coast, 8200 B. P.) and recent (Papua New Guinea, 1998) events show high potential danger of tsunamigenic landslides and the importance of mitigation efforts. This contribution presents newly discovered landslides 70 km off Padang (Western Sumatra, Indonesia) based on recent bathymetry measurements. This highly populated city with over 750,000 inhabitants exhibits high tsunami vulnerability due to its very low elevation. We model tsunamis that might have been induced by the detected landslide events. Estimations of run-up heights extrapolated from offshore tsunami amplitudes for Padang and other locations in the northern Mentawai fore-arc basin yield maximum values of about 3 m. We also provide a systematic parametric study of landslide-induced tsunamis, which allows us to distinguish potentially dangerous scenarios for Padang. Inside the fore-arc basin, scenarios involving volumes of 0.5–25 km³ could endanger Padang. Apart from slide volume, the hazard distribution mainly depends on three landslide parameters: distance to Padang, water depth in the generation region, and slide direction.

[1] Large submarine landslides can generate dangerous tsunamis. Because of their long-period signal, detection of landslides by common seismological methods is difficult. Here we suggest a method of detecting submarine landslides by using an array of land-based tiltmeters. The displacement of a large volume of sediments during landsliding produces a detectable elastic response of the lithosphere. We propose a technique to calculate this response and to invert for tsunami relevant parameters like slide location, volume, and velocity. We exemplify our method by applying it to the Storegga slide west of Norway and other tsunamigenic landslide events. The parameter which can be most robustly estimated from tiltmeter array measurements is the product of slide volume and its velocity (slide tsunamigenic potential). This parameter also controls the amplitude of the generated tsunami wave. The inversion accuracy of this parameter and the estimated tsunami height near the coast depends on the noise level of tiltmeter measurements, distance of the tiltmeters from the slide, and slide tsunamigenic potential itself. The tsunamigenic potential of the most dangerous slides like Storegga can be estimated well by tiltmeters at the coast if the effective noise level does not exceed 50 nrad.

Fault zones are the locations where motion of tectonic plates, often associated with earthquakes, is accommodated. Despite a rapid increase in the understanding of faults in the last decades, our knowledge of their geometry, petrophysical properties, and controlling processes remains incomplete. The central questions addressed here in our study of the Dead Sea Transform (DST) in the Middle East are as follows: (1) What are the structure and kinematics of a large fault zone? (2) What controls its structure and kinematics? (3) How does the DST compare to other plate boundary fault zones? The DST has accommodated a total of 105 km of left-lateral transform motion between the African and Arabian plates since early Miocene (similar to 20 Ma). The DST segment between the Dead Sea and the Red Sea, called the Arava/Araba Fault (AF), is studied here using a multidisciplinary and multiscale approach from the mu m to the plate tectonic scale. We observe that under the DST a narrow, subvertical zone cuts through crust and lithosphere. First, from west to east the crustal thickness increases smoothly from 26 to 39 km, and a subhorizontal lower crustal reflector is detected east of the AF. Second, several faults exist in the upper crust in a 40 km wide zone centered on the AF, but none have kilometer-size zones of decreased seismic velocities or zones of high electrical conductivities in the upper crust expected for large damage zones. Third, the AF is the main branch of the DST system, even though it has accommodated only a part (up to 60 km) of the overall 105 km of sinistral plate motion. Fourth, the AF acts as a barrier to fluids to a depth of 4 km, and the lithology changes abruptly across it. Fifth, in the top few hundred meters of the AF a locally transpressional regime is observed in a 100-300 m wide zone of deformed and displaced material, bordered by subparallel faults forming a positive flower structure. Other segments of the AF have a transtensional character with small pull-aparts along them. The damage zones of the individual faults are only 5-20 m wide at this depth range. Sixth, two areas on the AF show mesoscale to microscale faulting and veining in limestone sequences with faulting depths between 2 and 5 km. Seventh, fluids in the AF are carried downward into the fault zone. Only a minor fraction of fluids is derived from ascending hydrothermal fluids. However, we found that on the kilometer scale the AF does not act as an important fluid conduit. Most of these findings are corroborated using thermomechanical modeling where shear deformation in the upper crust is localized in one or two major faults; at larger depth, shear deformation occurs in a 20-40 km wide zone with a mechanically weak decoupling zone extending subvertically through the entire lithosphere.

[1] Since the devastating earthquake and tsunami in 2004 offshore Sumatra, many source models have been put forward. Recent studies clearly show that modern GPS-processing could achieve high resolving power for slip in near real time, which is crucial for determining tsunami initial conditions, provided accurate GPS-processing and inversion. Here, we propose an inversion technique with improved representation of the subduction zone geometry and physically justified boundary conditions. We show that the discrepancy between the inversion of near- and far field GPS data for the 2004 event, which is often explained by postseismic slip, can be eliminated by using our inversion method and IASP91 earth model. Inverted source models, including versions with splay faulting, are shown to be consistent with satellite altimetry data of offshore tsunami wave height, suggesting that displacement at the splay fault might have been present but was likely a second order process.

We employ high-resolution 2D thermomechanical modelling with complex elasto-visco-plastic rheology to analyse stresses in subducting and overriding plates. The model contains a dynamic subduction channel, defined as a few km thick zone of specific (weak) visco-plastic rheology between the slab and the overriding plate. Our high-resolution model corresponds to the zoom-in of the large-scale thermomechanical model of the Central Andes, with the 4-fold resolution increase. Initial model configuration (material, temperature and stress distributions) was interpolated from the parent model. Boundary conditions including slab pull and push velocities as well as velocity of the overriding plate, were also re-mapped from the large scale model. We demonstrate that, for shallow-dipping overridden slabs, the dominant stress is unbending stress at 50–100 km depth. This stress reaches 1–1.5 GPa and strongly prevails over the slab bending stress near the trench, which is limited by the frictional plastic yield. Unbending creates double (5–10 km distance between maximums) compression zone in the upper part of the slab and a zone of extension some 20–30 km below. Pressure in these zones differs from the lithostatic pressure to as much as plus/minus 0.8 GPa. Details of the distribution and magnitude of bending and unbending stresses in the slab are mainly controlled by the overriding velocity and direction of the slab-pull force. Overpressure in the subduction channel in all models does not exceed 100 MPa. Large over- and under-pressures in the slab, do not, however, lead to significant (more than 10 km) offsets of main dehydration reactions in crust and mantle of the slab.

[1] The 2004 catastrophic Indian Ocean tsunami has strongly emphasized the need for reliable tsunami early warning systems. Another giant tsunamigenic earthquake may occur west of Sumatra, close to the large city of Padang. We demonstrate that the presence of islands between the trench and the Sumatran coast makes earthquake-induced tsunamis especially sensitive to slip distribution on the rupture plane as wave heights at Padang may differ by more than a factor of 5 for earthquakes having the same seismic moment (magnitude) and rupture zone geometry but different slip distribution. Hence reliable prediction of tsunami wave heights for Padang cannot be provided using traditional, earthquake-magnitude-based methods. We show, however, that such a prediction can be issued within 10 minutes of an earthquake by incorporating special types of near-field GPS arrays (‘‘GPS-Shield’’). These arrays measure both vertical and horizontal displacements and can resolve higher order features of the slip distribution on the fault than the seismic moment if placed above the rupture zone or are less than 100 km away of the rupture zone. Stations in the arrays are located as close as possible to the trench and are aligned perpendicular to the trench, i.e., parallel to the expected gradient of surface coseismic displacement. In the case of Sumatra and Java, the GPS-Shield arrays should be placed at Mentawai Islands, located between the trench and Sumatra and directly at the Sumatra and Java western coasts. We demonstrate that the ‘‘GPS-Shield’’ can also be applied to northern Chile, where giant earthquakes may also occur in the near future. Moreover, this concept may be applied globally to many other tsunamigenic active margins where the land is located above or close to seismogenic zones.

The Andes were formed by Cenozoic tectonic shortening of the South American plate margin overriding the subducting Nazca Plate. Using coupled, thermo-mechanical, numerical modeling of the dynamic interaction between subducting and overriding plates, we searched for factors controlling the intensity of the tectonic shortening. From our modeling, constrained by geological and geophysical observations, we infer that the most important factor was fast and accelerating (from 2 to 3 cm yr(hoch)-1) westward drift of the South American Plate, whereas possible changes in the convergence rate were not as important. Other important factors are the crustal structure of the overriding plate and the shear coupling at the plate interface. The model in which the South American Plate has a thick (40-45 km at 35 Ma) crust and relatively high friction coefficient (0.05) at the Nazca-South American plate interface generates more than 300 km of tectonic shortening over the past 35 million years and replicates well the crustal structure and evolution of the high Central Andes, However, modeling does not confirm that possible climate-controlled changes to the sedimentary trench-fill during the last 30 million years might have significantly influenced the upperplate shortening rate. The model with initially thinner (less than 40 km) continental crust and a lower friction coefficient (less than 0.015) results in less than 40 ikm of shortening in the South American Plate, replicating the situation in the Southern Andes. During upper-plate deformation, the processes that cause a reduction in lithospheric strength and an increase in interplate coupling are particularly important. The most significant of these processes appears to be: (1) delamination of the lower crust and mantle lithosphere, driven by gabbro-eclogite transformation in the thickening lower crust, and (2) mechanical failure of the foreland sediments. The modeling demonstrates that delaminating lithosphere interacts with subduction-zone corner flow, influencing both the rate of tectonic shortening and magmatic-arc productivity, and suggests an anti-correlation between these two parameters. Our model also predicts that the down-dip limit of the frictional coupling domain between the Nazca and South American Plates should be ~15-20 km deeper in the Southern Andes (south of 28° S) compared to the high Central Andes, which is consistent with GPS and seismological observations.

The Andes, the world's second highest orogenic belt, were generated by the Cenozoic tectonic shortening of the South American plate margin overriding the subducting Nazca plate. We use a coupled thermomechanical numerical modeling technique to identify factors controlling the intensity of the tectonic shortening. From the modeling, we infer that the most important factor was accelerated westward drift of the South American plate; changes in the subduction rate were less important. Other important factors are crustal structure of the overriding plate and shear coupling at the plates' interface. The model with a thick (40–45 km at 30 Ma) South American crust and relatively high friction coefficient (0.05) at the Nazca–South American interface generates >300 km of tectonic shortening during 30–35 m.y. and replicates the crustal structure and evolution of the high central Andes. The model with an initially thinner (

The catastrophic consequences of the 2004 Indian Ocean and the recent (17 July) Java tsunamis demand the development of modern and robust tsunami early warning systems.The greatest challenge of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS), led by the National Center of Geosciences (GeoForschungsZentrum) in Potsdam, Germany, is to provide early tsunami warnings for the Indian Ocean coast of Indonesia where tsunamis can arrive 20–40 minutes after an earthquake. This article shows that reliable prediction of tsunami wave heights at the Sumatra coast cannot be provided using traditional, earthquake-magnitude-based methods. Instead, a novel, real-time warning technique based on special types of near-field global positioning system (GPS) arrays—a ‘GPS shield’—may be more appropriate for Sumatra and elsewhere around the globe.

Tsunami warning centres face the challenging task of rapidly forecasting tsunami threat immediately after an earthquake, when there is high uncertainty due to data deficiency. Here we introduce Probabilistic Tsunami Forecasting (PTF) for tsunami early warning. PTF explicitly treats data- and forecast-uncertainties, enabling alert level definitions according to any predefined level of conservatism, which is connected to the average balance of missed-vs-false-alarms. Impact forecasts and resulting recommendations become progressively less uncertain as new data become available. Here we report an implementation for near-source early warning and test it systematically by hindcasting the great 2010 M8.8 Maule (Chile) and the well-studied 2003 M6.8 Zemmouri-Boumerdes (Algeria) tsunamis, as well as all the Mediterranean earthquakes that triggered alert messages at the Italian Tsunami Warning Centre since its inception in 2015, demonstrating forecasting accuracy over a wide range of magnitudes and earthquake types., Probabilistic tsunami forecasting (PTF) defines an approach to tsunami early warning based on uncertainty quantification, enhancing forecast accuracy and enabling rational decision making. PTF is here developed for near-source tsunami warning, and tested in hindcasting mode over a wide range of past earthquakes.

SUMMARY To address one of the central questions of plate tectonics—How do large transform systems work and what are their typical features?—seismic investigations across the Dead Sea Transform (DST), the boundary between the African and Arabian plates in the Middle East, were conducted for the first time. A major component of these investigations was a combined reflection/refraction survey across the territories of Palestine, Israel and Jordan. The main results of this study are: (1) The seismic basement is offset by 3–5 km under the DST, (2) The DST cuts through the entire crust, broadening in the lower crust, (3) Strong lower crustal reflectors are imaged only on one side of the DST, (4) The seismic velocity sections show a steady increase in the depth of the crust-mantle transition (Moho) from ∼26 km at the Mediterranean to ∼39 km under the Jordan highlands, with only a small but visible, asymmetric topography of the Moho under the DST. These observations can be linked to the left-lateral movement of 105 km of the two plates in the last 17 Myr, accompanied by strong deformation within a narrow zone cutting through the entire crust. Comparing the DST and the San Andreas Fault (SAF) system, a strong asymmetry in subhorizontal lower crustal reflectors and a deep reaching deformation zone both occur around the DST and the SAF. The fact that such lower crustal reflectors and deep deformation zones are observed in such different transform systems suggests that these structures are possibly fundamental features of large transform plate boundaries.