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Seismicity and seismotectonic information indicate that destructive earth quakes (M ≤ 6)lave occurred all along the Jordan-Dead Sea transform and are likely to occur in the future. Any large future earthquakes chat may occur between the Dead Sea and the Gulf of Aqaba will affect the towers and connections of this power line. Distances to the towers. will vary from a few tens of kms to more than 200 km. The frequency band analysis of the towers is presented. finite element technique is utilized as a solver for the free vibration of these lowers. Only the frequencies of the first five modes associated with the free oscillation of the lowers are determined at thus stage. These are compared with frequencies of broth ne body and surface waves associated will local earthquakes as recorded on the university of Jordan Seisinological Station (UNJ). This comparison reveals partial correlation between the frequencies of the structures and weir supporting ground. This un. plies that in the event of severe earthquakes the resonant response with all of its destructive consequences is to be expected.

The distribution of permanent deformation near strike-slip plate boundaries and the underlying controlling variables are commonly poorly understood. Here we examine the crustal deformation across the northern Dead Sea fault system based on paleomagnetic observations and mechanical modeling. We focus our investigation on the region of the Lebanese restraining bend where the fault system strikes obliquely to the general Sinai-Arabia plate motion. We construct a series of crustal elasto-plastic models in which kinematics is based on geodetic measurements, and the geometry of the plate boundary is constrained by gravity data. Both the observed regional vertical axis rotations and the model results display significant counterclockwise rotations (as much as ∼50°) confined to the northern Sinai microplate located west of the bend. On the other hand, relatively minor rotations (

The low-noise environment in the Masada deep borehole (MDBI), an abandoned oil well on the western shore of the Dead Sea rift, allows the recordings of many small-magnitude earthquakes. MDBI has a 2 Hz triaxial seismometer installed at a depth of 1256 m below ground and 1516 m below sea level. We used MDBI P- and S-wave data and the general source relationship u(f)=u(0)e−(πft/Q)/[1+(f/f0)2y]1y, in which f0 is corner frequency and 1

The Dead Sea Transform (DST) dominates the seismicity of Israel and neighboring countries. Whereas the instrumental catalog of Israel (1986–2017) contains mainly M7 earthquake. This situation highlights the possibility that a strong earthquake may strike north Israel in the near future, raising the importance of ground-motion prediction.Deep and narrow strike-slip basins accompany the DST. Here, we study ground motions produced by intrabasin seismic sources, to understand the basin effect on regional ground motions. We model seismic-wave propagation in 3D, focusing on scenarios of Mw 6 earthquakes, rupturing different active branches of the DST. The geological model includes the major structures in northern Israel: the strike-slip basins along the DST, the sedimentary basins accompanying the Carmel fault zone, and the densely populated and industrialized Zevulun Valley (Haifa Bay area).We show that regional ground motions are determined by source–path coupling effects in the strike-slip basins, before waves propagate into the surrounding areas. In particular, ground motions are determined by the location of the rupture nucleation within the basin, the near-rupture lithology, and the basin’s local structure. When the rupture is located in the crystalline basement or along material bridges connecting opposite sides of the fault, ground motions behave predictably, decaying due to geometrical spreading and locally amplified atop sedimentary basins. By contrast, if rupture nucleates or propagates into shallow sedimentary units of the DST strike-slip basins, ground motions are amplified within, before propagating outside. Repeated reflections from the basin walls result in a “resonant chamber” effect, leading to stronger regional ground motions with prolonged durations.

The Geological Survey of Israel has upgraded and expanded the national Israeli Seismic Network (ISN), with more than 110 stations country-wide, as part of the implementation of a governmental decision to build a national Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system named TRUAA. This upgraded seismic network exhibits a high station density and fast telemetry. The stations are distributed mainly along the main fault systems, the Dead Sea Transform, and the Carmel-Zfira Fault, which may potentially produce Mw7.5 earthquakes. The system has recently entered a limited operational phase, allowing for initial performance estimation. Real-time performance during eight months of operation (41 earthquakes) matches expectations. Alert delays (interval between origin-time and Earthquake Early Warning alert time) are reduced to as low as 3 s, and source parameter errorstatistics are within expected values found in previous works using historical data playbacks. An evolutionary alert policy is implemented based on a magnitude threshold of Mw 4.2 and peak ground accelerations exceeding 2 cm/s2. A comparison between different ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) is presented for earthquakes from Israel and California using median ground motion prediction equations values. This analysis shows that a theoretical GMPE produced the best agreement with observed ground motions, with less bias and lower uncertainties. The performance of this GMPE was found to improve when an earthquake specific stress drop is implemented.

Seismicity triggered by water level changes in reservoirs and lakes is usually studied from well-documented contemporary records. Can such triggering be explored on a historical time scale when the data gathered on water level fluctuations in historic lakes and the earthquake catalogs suffer from severe uncertainties? These uncertainties stem from the different nature of the data gathered, methods, and their resolution. In this article, we considerably improve the correlation between the continuous record of historic water level reconstructions at the Dead Sea and discrete seismicity patterns in the area over the period of the past two millennia. Constricted by the data from previous studies, we generate an ensemble of random water level curves and choose that curve that best correlates with the historical records of seismic stress release in the Dead Sea reflected in the destruction in Jerusalem. We then numerically simulate a synthetic earthquake catalog using this curve. The earthquakes of this synthetic catalog show an impressing agreement with historic earthquake records from the field. We demonstrate for the first time that water level changes correlate well with the observed recurrence interval record of historic earthquakes.

Initially described in the late 50’s, the Dead Sea Fault system connects at its southern end to the Red Sea extensive system, through a succession of left-stepping faults. In this region, the left-lateral differential displacement of the Arabian plate with respect to the Sinai micro-plate along the Dead Sea fault results in the formation of a depression corresponding to the Gulf Aqaba. We acquired new bathymetric data in the areas of the Gulf of Aqaba and Strait of Tiran during two marine campaigns (June 2018, September 2019) in order to investigate the location of the active faults, which structure and control the morphology of the area. The high-resolution datasets (10-m posting) allow us to present a new fault map of the gulf and to discuss the seismic potential of the main active faults.We also investigated the eastern margin of the Gulf of Aqaba and Tiran island to assess the vertical uplift rate. To do so, we computed high-resolution topographic data and we processed new series of U-Th analyses on corals from the uplifted marine terraces.Combining our results with previous studies, we determined the local and the regional uplift in the area of the Gulf of Aqaba and Strait of Tiran.Eventually, we discussed the tectonic evolution of the gulf since the last major change of the tectonic regime and we propose a revised tectonic evolution model of the area.

Large earthquakes (magnitude ≥ 7.0) are rare, especially along slow-slipping plate boundaries. Lack of large earthquakes in the instrumental record enlarges uncertainty of the recurrence time; the recurrence of large earthquakes is generally determined by extrapolation according to a magnitude-frequency relation. We enhance the seismological catalog of the Dead Sea Fault Zone by including a 220,000-year-long continuous large earthquake record based on seismites from the Dead Sea center (ICDP Core 5017-1). We constrain seismic shaking intensities via computational fluid dynamics modeling and invert them for earthquake magnitude. Our analysis shows that the recurrence time of large earthquakes follows a power-law distribution, with a mean of ≤ 1400±160 years. This mean recurrence is significantly shorter than the previous estimate of 11,000 years for the past 40,000 years. Our unique record confirms a clustered earthquake recurrence pattern and a group-fault temporal clustering model, and reveals an unexpectedly high seismicity rate on a slow-slipping plate boundary.Our results suggest that researchers may underestimate the seismic hazard potential of similar slow-slipping faults with irregular rupture. Our study highlights the potential of in situ deformed sediment layers in a subaqueous environment as a strong-motion paleo-seismometer to record long seismic sequences covering multiple recurrence intervals of large earthquakes. Long records are vital for accurate hazard assessment. Our quantitative method of seismic record reconstruction, with paleo-earthquake intensity (ground acceleration) and magnitude estimation, may also prove suitable for similar subaqueous environments along other faults.

The Sea of Galilee in northeast Israel is a freshwater lake filling a morphological depression along the Dead Sea Fault. It is located in a tectonically complex area, where a N-S main fault system intersects secondary fault patterns non-univocally interpreted by previous reconstructions. A set of multiscale geophysical, geochemical and seismological data, reprocessed or newly collected, was analysed to unravel the interplay between shallow tectonic deformations and geodynamic processes. The result is a neotectonic map highlighting major seismogenic faults in a key region at the boundary between the Africa/Sinai and Arabian plates. Most active seismogenic displacement occurs along NNW-SSE oriented transtensional faults. This results in a left-lateral bifurcation of the Dead Sea Fault forming a rhomb-shaped depression we named the Capharnaum Trough, located off-track relative to the alleged principal deformation zone. Low-magnitude (ML = 3–4) epicentres accurately located during a recent seismic sequence are aligned along this feature, whose activity, depth and regional importance is supported by geophysical and geochemical evidence. This case study, involving a multiscale/multidisciplinary approach, may serve as a reference for similar geodynamic settings in the world, where unravelling geometric and kinematic complexities is challenging but fundamental for reliable earthquake hazard assessments.

Summary of the paleomagnetic data and a detailed description of the model setup.

Northern Israel was struck during July 2018 by a ML4.4 earthquake followed by a seismic sequence that lasted about 30 days. This seismic sequence occurred in the center of a temporary seismic network deployed around the Sea of Galilee (Lake Kinneret). The network was installed to investigate the regional kinematics of the Dead Sea Fault, which is a major transform fault running N‐S for more than 1,000 km. The data allowed us to develop a local velocity model for the Sea of Galilee. We relocated more than 600 earthquakes and calculated 27 focal mechanisms pointing out a complex kinematic setting, possibly controlled by fluids at depth. The seismic sequence developed along a NNW‐striking direction and it is bounded to the east by the N‐striking Dead Sea fault. Hypocenter depths range between 6 and 13 km. Directions of the principal stress tensors suggest a transtentional deformation, in agreement with the overall kinematics of the region. We analyze and discuss our data set to investigate mechanisms that potentially triggered the observed seismic swarm, including exacerbated ground water pumping proposed by previous authors. We suggest that the seismic sequence is driven by the dissipation of the elastic load that accumulated in this region.

The geometry of stepovers along strike-slip faults dictates the deformational field and topography induced around the faults. Stepover geometry also impacts the ability of a fault rupture to propagate from one fault segment to another and therefore acts as a major controlling factor in the size of earthquakes. However, the geometry of stepovers is often poorly resolved, as they tend to underlie young sedimentary successions. Yet, although mostly ignored, the accumulated long-term relative plate motions accommodated by the stepping faults generate permanent rotational deformation in the crust surrounding them. Here we present the results from a combined mechanical and paleomagnetic investigation of the vertical axis rotational pattern confining stepovers. We focus our investigation on the central Dead Sea Fault, where two prominent stepovers are located at the Kinneret and Hula depressions. To better understand their still somewhat elusive geometric settings, we mapped the crustal rotational field by studying the magnetization of the confining volcanic rocks. Remanent magnetization directions reveal localized zones of anomalously high vertical axis rotations in the vicinity of the stepovers that evolve to negligible rotations elsewhere. We then constructed a series of elastic and elasto-plastic slip models aiming to cover possible plate boundary architectures. Comparable patterns between the observed and predicted rotations were achieved when the Dead Sea Fault motion was concentrated along the eastern margins of both the Kinneret and Hula Basins. Our best-fit model suggests that the along-strike under-lapping distance for the Kinneret Stepover is ~8 km whereas for the Hula Stepover is only ~2 km. Our results, supported by historic and paleoseismic records that show no evidence of an earthquake that ruptured through the Kinneret Stepover, imply an enhanced deformation zone in the center of Lake Kinneret, which acts as a major barrier to rupture propagation. Our combined paleomagnetic and modeling analysis approach provides a new avenue for the study of the geometries of plate boundaries.

The onset and evolution of the Dead Sea transform are re-evaluated based on new in situ U-Pb dating and strain analyses of mechanically twinned calcites. Direct dating of 30 syn-faulting calcites from 10 different inactive fault strands of the transform indicates that the oceanic-to-continental plate boundary initiated between 20.8 and 18.5 Ma within an ∼10-km-wide distributed deformation zone in southern Israel. Ages from the northern Dead Sea transform (17.1–12.7 Ma) suggest northward propagation and the establishment of a well-developed >500-km-long plate-bounding fault in 3 m.y. The dominant horizontal shortening direction recorded in the dated twinned calcites marks the onset of left-lateral motion along the evolving plate boundary. The observed changes in the strain field within individual fault strands cannot be simply explained by local "weakening effects" along strands of the Dead Sea transform or by gradual changes in the Euler pole through time.

Israel was hit by destructive earthquakes many times in the course of history. To properly understand the hazard and support effective preparedness towards future earthquakes, we examined the spatial and temporal distribution of the resulted damage. We described in detail our systematic approach to searching the available literature, collecting the data and screening the authenticity of that information. We used GIS (Geographic Information System) to map and evaluate the distribution of the damage and to search for recurring patterns. Overall, it is found that 186 localities were hit, 54 of them at least twice. We also found that Israel was affected by 4, 17, 8 and 2 damaging earthquakes that originated, respectively, from the southern, central, central-northern and northern parts of the Dead Sea Transform (DST). The temporal appearance of the northern earthquakes is clustered; the central earthquakes are more regular in time, whereas no damage from the north-central and the central quakes, with the exception of the year 363 earthquake, seems to have occurred south of the Dead Sea region. Analyzing the distribution of the damage, we realized that the number of the damage reports reflects only half of the incidents that actually happened, attesting to incompleteness of the historical catalogue. Jerusalem is the most reported city with 14 entries, followed by Akko (Acre), Tiberias, Nablus and Tyre with 8, 7, 7 and 6 reports, respectively. In general, localities in the Galilee and north of it suffered more severely than localities in central Israel with the exception of Nablus and the localities along the coastal plain of Israel, most probably due to local site effects. For the sake of hazard management, these observations should be considered for future planning and risk mitigation.

A combined GPS velocity solution covering a wide area from Egypt to Middle East allowed us to infer the current rates across the main, already well known, tectonic features. We have estimated 126 velocities from time series of 90 permanent and 36 non permanent GPS sites located in Africa (Egypt), Eurasia and Arabia plates in the time span 1996–2015, the largest available for the Egyptian sites. We have combined our velocity solution in a least-squares sense with two other recent velocity solutions of networks located around the eastern Mediterranean, obtaining a final IGb08 velocity field of about 450 sites. Then, we have estimated the IGb08 Euler poles of Africa, Sinai and Arabia, analyzing the kinematics of the Sinai area, particular velocity profiles, and estimating the 2D strain rate field. We show that it is possible to reliably model the rigid motion of Sinai block only including some GPS sites located south of the Carmel Fault. The estimated relative motion with respect to Africa is of the order of 2–3 mm/yr, however there is a clear mismatch between the modeled and the observed velocities in the southern Sinai sites. We have also assessed the NNE left shear motion along the Dead Sea Transform Fault, estimating a relative motion between Arabia and Africa of about 6 mm/yr in the direction of the Red Sea opening.

We address an approach for rockfall hazard evaluation where the study area resides below a cliff in an a priori exposure to rockfall hazard, but no historical documentation of rockfall events is available and hence important rockfall hazard parameters like triggering mechanism and recurrence interval are unknown. We study the rockfall hazard for the town of Qiryat Shemona, northern Israel, situated alongside the Dead Sea Transform, at the foot of the Ramim escarpment. Numerous boulders are scattered on the slopes above the town, while pre-town historical aerial photos reveal that boulders had reached the location that is now within town limits. We use field observations and optically stimulated luminescence dating of past rockfall events combined with computer modeling to evaluate the rockfall hazard. For the analysis, we first mapped the rockfall source and final downslope stop sites and compiled the boulder size distribution. We then simulated the possible rockfall trajectories using the field observed data to calibrate the simulation software by comparing simulated and mapped boulder stop sites along selected slopes, while adjusting model input parameters for best fit. The analysis reveals areas of high rockfall hazard at the southwestern quarters of the town and also indicates that in the studied slopes falling blocks would stop where the slope angle decreases below 5–10∘. Age determination suggests that the rockfalls were triggered by large (M>6) historical earthquakes. Nevertheless, not all large historical earthquakes triggered rockfalls. Considering the size distribution of the past rockfalls in the study area and the recurrence time of large earthquakes in the region, we estimate a probability of less than 5 % to be affected by a destructive rockfall within a 50-year time window. Here we suggest a comprehensive method to evaluate rockfall hazard where only past rockfall evidence exists in the field. We show the importance of integrating spatial and temporal field observations to assess the extent of rockfall hazard, the potential block size distribution and the rockfall recurrence interval.

In this study, the results of earthquake data processing, recorded essentially by the Syrian National Seismological Network (SNSN), were analyzed, and a special earthquakes catalogue for Damascus fault covering the period 1995–2012 was established. During the study period of approximately 17 years, it was observed that the seismic activity of this fault is characterized by low-magnitude events. It was therefore deduced that Damascus fault is actually in a quiescence state in contrast with other faults segments of the Dead Sea Faults System such as Yammoneh and Aqapa segments. Such a seismic quiescence along the Damascus fault implies that a large earthquake is overdue. The Gutenberg-Richter relationship, deduced from the established catalogue, inferred that the b-value is about 0.93 using the least-squares technique. This value, close to 1.0, can be accepted regarding the reported values in the literature. Extrapolation of Gutenberg-Richter relationship reveals long return periods of large earthquakes.

The Gulf of Aqaba is an elongated basin (~180 x 20 km) with depths reaching 1850 m. It represents the southern segment of the Dead Sea Transform (DST), which is one of the largest transform fault zones in the world. The opening of Gulf of Aqaba is thought to have originated from the relative displacement of the African and Arabian Plates. According to historical and recent earthquake records, it is seismically active. In this study, we present the first 3D model of seismic P and S velocities beneath the Gulf of Aqaba area based on the results of passive travel time tomography. The tomographic inversion was performed based on travel time data from ~9000 regional earthquakes provided by the Egyptian National Seismological Network (ENSN) and the International Seismological Center (ISC). The inversion results are generally consistent for P- and S-velocity patterns at all depths. At all depth intervals in the Red Sea, we observed strong high-velocity anomalies with abrupt limits that coincide with the coastal lines. This finding suggests that the oceanic nature of the crust in the northern Red Sea does not support the concept of gradual stretching of the continental crust. According to our results, in the middle and lower crust, the seismic anomalies seem to delineate a sinistral shift (~100 km) in the opposite flanks of the fault zone that is consistent with other estimates of the left-lateral displacement in the southern part of the DST. However, no displacement structures are visible in the upper-most lithospheric mantle.

Numerous historical reports of damaging earthquakes in the Levant have accumulated over the last 3000 years. Here, we screen that information and focus on the damaging earthquakes that affected Israel from the second millennia BCE to the 1927 CE Jericho earthquake and list the earthquakes by date, of major damage, type of sequence, and degree of size. The compilation results in three different lists: (i) 71 reliable earthquakes that in our opinion were most probably associated with the Dead Sea Transform (DST) and affected Israel and its close surroundings; (ii) 41 questionable earthquakes that should be re-evaluated or ignored; and (iii) 46 earthquakes that probably occurred but were erroneously associated with damage in Israel. What emerges from the list of the reliable earthquakes is that (i) Israel and its close surroundings suffered damage about 32 times during the last two millennia, that is, once in about 60 years, although not regularly; (ii) 21 of the earthquakes occurred during the last millennia, i.e., an event every ∼45 years; and (iii) three intervals of increased reporting are noticed: between the fourth and the mid-eighth century, from the beginning of the eleventh to the end of the thirteenth century, and from the end of the eighteenth century up to the last entry in 1927, though this period may be extended until today. In-depth evaluation of the changing regimes over time within the study area, the historical reports of earthquake damage outside of Israel, and comparison with physical paleo- and archaeo-seismology evidence, such as the “137–206” and “165–236” paleoseismic earthquakes for which there is no historical match, indicates that the historical list is far from being complete. Thus, we argue that the apparent cycles of historical reporting do not necessarily reflect the actual rate of seismic activity and further investigation is needed to establish a compiled, multi-sourced list to decipher the true nature of cycles of strong earthquakes in this region during historical times.

We geodetically investigate the interseismic deformation along two neighboring sections of the Dead Sea Fault in Israel and present first clear evidence for shallow creep along this fault. We obtain the velocities of near-fault GPS campaign stations across the northern section of the Jordan Valley Fault (JVF) and the Jordan Gorge Section (JGS) that were surveyed each year between 2009 and 2015. The JVF extends from the northern shore of the Dead Sea to the eastern shore of the Sea of Galilee, and the JGS extends from the Sea of Galilee to the Hula Basin. We infer a slip rate of ~4.1 mm/yr and a locking depth of ~10 km for both sections. Data analysis indicates that while the JGS is found to be fully locked above the locking depth, the northern section of the JVF is found to be creeping from a depth of 1.5 ± 1.0 km to the surface, with a creep rate of 2.5 ± 0.8 mm/yr. Our observations also suggest that the current slip rate of the fault at the western margin of the Jordan Valley is minor, less than the GPS velocities uncertainties.

Deformed arches are often key elements of archaeoseismic studies; arches have been in use for more than three millennia and damage, particularly moved keystones, are clear indications of a seismogenic cause. We introduce a damage evaluation scheme that allows a straightforward determination of the degree of damage to an arch based on laser scan models and digital images. The scheme is applied to 90 arches of the Nimrod Castle, which is neighboring the Dead Sea fault and which was heavily damaged during the 1759 Lebanon earthquake. The analysis shows that the a priori assumption of a correlation between arch orientation and damage degree does not hold for the entire building. An exception is a large tower including a secret passage in which voussoirs have dropped along a more than 20 m long section.

A Thesis presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School at the University of Missouri-Columbia In Partial Fulfillment Of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Science.

We evaluate rockfall hazard for the town of Qiryat-Shemona, northern Israel, situated alongside the Dead Sea Transform, at the foot of the Ramim escarpment. Boulders of 1 m3 to 125 m3 are scattered on the slope above town, while historical aerial photos reveal that before town establishment, numerous boulders had reached the town premises. For the hazard analysis we first mapped the rockfalls, their source and their downslope final stop-sites, and compiled the boulder size distribution. We then simulated the probable future rockfall trajectories using the field observed data to calibrate the simulation software by comparing simulated vs mapped boulders stop-sites along selected slopes while adjusting model input parameters for best fit. The analysis identified areas of high rockfall hazard at the south-western quarters of the town and also indicates that in the studied slopes, falling blocks would stop after several tens of meters where the slope angle is below 10°. OSL age determination of several past rockfall events in the study area suggests that these rockfalls were triggered by large (M > 6) historical earthquakes. Nevertheless, not all large historical earthquakes triggered rockfalls. Simulations show that downslope reach of the blocks is not significantly affected by the magnitude of seismic acceleration. Considering the size distribution of the past rockfalls in the study area and the reoccurrence time of large earthquakes in the region, the probability to be affected by a destructive rockfall within a 50 year time-window is of less than 5 %.

Kahramanmaras and its surroundings are under the influence of East Anatolian and Dead Sea fault zones which have significance in the tectonics of Turkey. The long-term energy accumulation in these zones creates a very high risk level in terms of seismic hazard. In this study, the seismic hazard of Kahramanmaras Province and its vicinity was tried to be determined by using the probabilistic seismic hazard method approach. The earthquake catalog used in the study comprises 424 earthquakes equal or greater than M w = 4.0, covering a time period between 1 January 1900 and 1 January 2015. The earthquake data have been compiled from the catalogs of the International Seismological Center (ISC), Republic of Turkey Prime Ministry Disaster and Emergency Management Precidency (RTPMDEMP), Bogazici University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute. Seismic sources that could affect the study area have been identified according to the Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME). Seismic hazard parameters and peak horizontal acceleration values were obtained by using the selected attenuation relationships, and the results were given with iso-acceleration maps corresponding to a recurrence period of 475 years. The calculated peak horizontal acceleration values are generally varying between 0.21 and 0.41 in the study area. The result of this study shows that the southeastern parts of the study area have a greater seismic hazard compared with other parts.

We resolved displacement on buried stream channels that record the past 3400 years of slip history for the Jordan Gorge (JGF) section of the Dead Sea fault in Israel. Based on three-dimensional (3D) trenching, slip in the past millennium amounts to only 2.7 m, similar to that determined in previous studies, whereas the previous millennium experienced two to three times this amount of displacement with nearly 8 m of cumulative slip, indicating substantial short term variations in slip rate. The slip rate averaged over the past 3400 years, as determined from 3D trenching, is 4.1 mm/yr, which agrees well with geodetic estimates of strain accumulation, as well as with longer-term geologic slip rate estimates. Our results indicate that: 1) the past 1200 years appear to significantly lack slip, which may portend a significant increase in future seismic activity; 2) short-term slip rates for the past two millennia have varied by more than a factor of two and suggest that past behavior is best characterized by clustering of earthquakes. From these observations, the earthquake behavior of the Jordan Gorge fault best fits is a “weak segment model” where the relatively short fault section (20 km), bounded by releasing steps, fails on its own in moderate earthquakes, or ruptures with adjacent segments.

International audience; Temporal distribution of earthquakes is key to seismic hazard assessment. However, for most fault systems shortness of large earthquake catalogues makes this assessment difficult. Its unique long earthquake record makes the Dead Sea fault (DSF) exceptional to test earthquake behaviour models. A paleoseismological trench along the southern section of the DSF, revealed twelve surface-rupturing earthquakes during the last 8000 years, of which many correlate with past earthquakes reported in historical chronicles. These data allowed us building a rupture scenario for this area, which includes timing and rupture length for all significant earthquakes during the last two millenaries. Extending this rupture scenario to the entire DSF south of Lebanon, we were able to confirm the temporal-clustering hypothesis. Using rupture length and scaling laws, we have estimated average co-seismic slip for each past earthquake. The cumulated slip was then balanced with long-term tectonic loading to estimate the slip deficit for this part of DSF over the last 1600 years. The seismic-slip budget shows that the slip deficit is similarly high along the fault with a minimum of 2 meters, which suggests that an earthquake cluster might happen over the entire region in the near future. Successions of intense periods of seismic activity rupturing significant length of a fault followed by longer periods of seismic quiescence have been documented along several strike-slip faults 1-6 , suggesting that temporal clustering of earthquakes might be a common behaviour for major strike-slip faults. Testing this assumption, however, has long been hampered by the lack of consistent earthquake time series for long-enough fault sections. Moreover, temporal clustering remains a critical issue for seismic hazard models that only started to be addressed in the most recent modelling attempts.

The archaeological Tell Ateret (North Israel), constructed on the active Dead Sea Fault, was intermittently settled for over six millennia. Structures on the Tell that have been offset by earthquake ruptures provide a remarkable record of alternating construction and slip. We excavated the site in order to resolve the geometry and to time the earthquake rupture history back to the earliest settlement. The measurements of faulted archaeological walls are complemented with data from historical documents, numismatic analysis, and geological observations. We report three newly discovered offsets that add to two previously resolved slip events (the 20 May 1202 and 30 October 1759 earthquakes), completing a three millennia archaeoseismic record. The oldest offset measuring at least ~2 m bisected Iron Age IIA fortifications. The second offset, the largest of all five, reaching ~2.5 m, is dated to circa 142 BCE The third, whose post-Hellenistic date is not determined, is of ~1.5 m, possibly resulting from multiple earthquakes. We constrain the time of the largest offset by a hoard of 45 coins, the latest of which had been minted 143/142 BCE. Indicative pottery and historic texts support the year 143/142 as terminus post-quem of the rupture at this site. These observations, together with a new kinematic approach, show uneven slip distribution in time and variable amounts of slip along the Jordan Gorge segment of the Dead Sea Fault. We suggest, based on previous palaeomagnetic measurements, that distributed deformation west of Tell Ateret can explain the apparent missing slip of 4.5 ± 3.5 m since the Hellenistic times.

The Dead Sea Fault (DSF) is a 1000 km long continental transform. It forms a narrow and elongated valley with uplifted shoulders showing an east-west asymmetry, which is not common in other continental transforms. This topography may have strongly affected the course of human history. Several papers addressed the geomorphology of the DSF, but there is still no consensus with respect to the dominant mechanism of its formation. Our thermomechanical modeling demonstrates that existence of a transform prior to the rifting predefined high strain softening on the faults in the strong upper crust and created a precursor weak zone localizing deformations in the subsequent transtensional period. Together with a slow rate of extension over the Arabian plate, they controlled a narrow asymmetric morphology of the fault. This rift pattern was enhanced by a fast deposition of evaporites from the Sedom Lagoon, which occupied the rift depression for a short time period.

The Dead Sea Fault is a major strike-slip fault bounding the Arabia plate and the Sinai subplate. On the basis of three GPS campaign measurements, 12 years apart, at 19 sites distributed in Israel and Jordan, complemented by Israeli permanent stations, we compute the present-day deformation across the Wadi Arava fault, the southern segment of the Dead Sea Fault. Elastic locked-fault modelling of fault-parallel velocities provides a slip rate of 4.7 ± 0.7 mm/yr and a locking depth of 11.6 ± 5.3 km in its central part. Along its northern part, south of the Dead Sea, the simple model proposed for the central profile does not fit the velocity field well. To fit the data, two faults have to be taken into account, on both sides of the sedimentary basin of the Dead Sea, each fault accommodating ∼ 2 mm/yr. Locking depths are small (less than 2 km on the western branch, ∼ 6 km on the eastern branch). Along the southern profile, we are once again unable to fit the data using the simple model, similar to the central profile. It is very difficult to propose a velocity greater than 4 mm/yr, i.e. smaller than that along the central profile. This leads us to propose that a part of the relative movement from Sinai to Arabia is accommodated along faults located west of our profiles.

The subduction between Nubia and Eurasia and activities along the Red Sea, Gulf of Suez and Gulf of Aqaba may control the surface deformation in the north-eastern corner of the African continent. Using very few GPS stations in the Egyptian region, previous studies indicate northward motion of northern Nubia with respect to Eurasia of about 5 mm/yr (McClusky et al., 2000; Reilinger et al., 2006; Mahmoud et al., 2005). In order to constrain better the movement rate of northern Nubia and interaction between Nubia, Eurasia and Arabia plates, we are using for the first time 16 permanent GPS stations in combination with 47 non-permanent stations covering Egypt for the period 2006–2012. This paper extends the previous study (Saleh and Becker, 2013) by processing in addition to the Egyptian stations 86 permanent stations belonging to three different tectonic plates. This led to a considerably better coverage of the Sinai–Dead Sea region. This work intends to be the first comprehensive analysis of the permanent stations in combination with the various campaign data in selected regions of special interest in Egypt. The GPS sites show a relative motion between Nubia and Eurasia of about 6.5 ± 1 mm/yr, which increased toward the Hellenic trench, 8.2 ± 0.8 mm/yr in Sinai peninsula, 14.2 ± 1.4 mm/yr in the north of Arabian plate and 22.3 ± 0.7 mm/yr in eastern and central Turkey. The strain computation indicates high strain rates, where the deformation is strongly localized along the Dead Sea fault, and low to moderate strain rate in the Gulf of Suez and southern Sinai.

New findings of the structure of the Dead Sea sedimentary basin and its eastern and western bordering regions are obtained by P and PKP wave relative traveltime residuals of 644 teleseisms, as recorded by the Dead Sea Integrated Research portable seismic network in the Dead Sea basin and its neighboring regions. The Lisan Peninsula is characterized by relatively small teleseismic traveltime residuals of about 0.14 s, in the latitude range of 31.22°–31.37° and at the longitude of 35.50°, slowly decreasing toward the west. The largest teleseismic traveltime residuals are in the southern Dead Sea basin, south of the Lisan Peninsula in the latitude range of 31.05°–31.15° and along longitude 35.45° and continuing southward toward the Amaziahu Fault, reaching values of 0.4–0.5 s. There is a small positive residual at the Amaziahu Fault and a small negative residual south of it probably marking the southern end of the Dead Sea basin. East and west of the Dead Sea basin the mean teleseismic traveltime residuals are negative with overall averages of 0.35 s and 0.45 s, respectively. Using the teleseismic residuals, we estimate the horizontal dimensions of the Lisan salt diapir to be 23 km× 13 km at its widest and a maximal thickness of about 7.2 km. The thickness of the Mount Sodom salt diapir is estimated as 6.2 km.

Tiran and Sanafir islands and their surrounding areas are very important due to their location within the Red Sea, which is in a triple junction among the African and Arabian plates and the Sinai Peninsula microplate. Consequently, this area should be studied from a geological point of view, particularly because there is a plan to construct King Salman’s bridge connecting Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Freely available potential field data, such as magnetic and gravity data, were integrated with seismological data from nearby seismic stations to understand the regional structure and seismic activity in the area. Potential field data were analysed using edge detection techniques (Tilt DeRivative and horizontal gradient) for qualitative interpretation and 2D inversion modelling for quantitative interpretation. Seismological data were analysed geostatistically to identify many epicentre locations and estimate the focal depths. The results of the potential field data analysis indicate that Tiran and Sanafir islands are located along a subsurface geological edge trending NW, parallel to the Red Sea. A similarity in potential field anomalies between both islands and the southern Sinai Peninsula indicates that these islands were separated from the Sinai Peninsula during the formation of the Gulf of Aqaba via Dead Sea Transform fault. The analysis of the seismic data indicates that a specific motion characterizes each focal depth solution. The seismic events are related to main structural trends NW–SE and NE–SW.

In certain regions and under favorable geologic conditions, precariously balanced rocks may form. These types of unusual formations have been used to estimate yield ground motions. Because such balanced rocks have not been ‘unbalanced’, they can be used as a rough estimate for ground motions which have not been reached or exceeded since the balanced formation achieved its contemporary state. We hypothesize that other ancient manmade structures, delicate in terms of stability and particularly those that have survived earthquake ground motions intact, can be used in the same manner. We therefore suggest that these structures act as a highly local seismoscope for determining maximum upper ground motion bounds. We apply the concept of the study of precariously balanced rocks to the ruin of the Roman temple of Kedesh, located in close proximity to a branch of the Dead Sea Transform Fault. The delicate-looking ruin was surveyed with a 3D laser scanner. Based on the point cloud from that survey, a discrete element model of the remaining temple wall was constructed. To test the stability of the model we used 54 analytical ground motion signals with frequencies ranging from 0.3 to 2 Hz and PGAs between 1 and 9 m/s 2 and simulated and measured strong ground motions of eight earthquakes. Two hypothetical local earthquake scenarios, five of which are historical earthquakes of the region and one is a strong motion record of the 1999 Taiwan Chi Chi earthquake were also used to test the hypothesis. None of the simulated earthquakes (historical or assumed) toppled the ruin; only the strong motion record collapsed the structure. The simulations reveal a surprisingly high stability of the ruin of the Roman temple of Kedesh mainly due to the small height to width ratio of the remaining walls. However, ground motion with large PGAs at a low frequency range in EW direction does collapse the remains of the temple.

In this study, a statistical analysis is carried out to reveal the current earthquake potential in the Eastern Anatolia region of Turkey. For this purpose, a space-time assessing based on the recent changes in Gutenberg-Richter b-value, seismic quiescence Z-value, cumulative moment, annual probability and recurrence time of earthquakes is achieved. Temporal variation of b-value indicates that average b-value decreased from 1.25±0.02 between 2002 and 2010 to 1.08±0.02 between 2011 and 2015. A clear quiescence in the seismic moment in recent years may be a clue foretelling the occurrence of an intense event. Annual probability of the earthquakes between 3.5 and 4.0 magnitude levels exhibits a value equal to and larger than 30. Recurrence time of the earthquakes has a value between 2.0 and 3.0 years for magnitude level of 6.0, and a value between 6.0 and 7.0 years for magnitude level of 7.0. A significant decrease in b-value and clear quiescence anomalies in Z-value at the beginning of 2015 are observed in the several same regions. These areas cover the Central Anatolia Fault Zone, Malatya and Ovacık faults, the southeastern part of the Eastern Anatolia Fault Zone, and the junction of the Eastern Anatolia and Dead Sea Fault Zones. In these anomaly regions, a decreasing trend in b-value may be an indicator of stress increases and an increasing trend in Z-value may show the quiescence areas before the next earthquake occurrences. As a remarkable fact, these areas in the Eastern Anatolia region may be interpreted as one of the most likely locations for the major earthquakes in the future. En este estudio se realizó un análisis estadístico para evidenciar el potencial actual de terremotos en la región de Anatolia, al oriente de Turquía. Con este objetivo, se obtuvieron una evaluación espacio-temporal basada en los cambios recientes del valor b en la ley Gutenberg-Richter, el valor z de inactividad sísmica, el momento acumulado, la probabilidad anual y el tiempo recurrente de los terremotos. La variación temporal del valor b indica que este factor cayo desde 1.25±0.02, entre 2002 y 2010, a 1.08±0.02 entre 2011 y 2015. La clara inactividad en el momento sísmico de los años recientes podría ser una clave predictiva de la ocurrencia de un terremoto intenso. La probabilidad anual de terremotos de magnitud entre 3.5 y 4.0 muestra un valor igual o mayor a 30. El tiempo de recurrencia de terremotos tiene un valor de 2.0 y 3.0 años en la magnitud de nivel 6.0 y un valor entre 6.0 y 7.0 años para la magnitud de nivel 7.0. A comienzos de 2015 se observó una caída significante del valor b y claras anomalías en el valor z de inactividad en varias regiones. Estas áreas cubren la zona de la falla de Anatolia Central, las fallas Malatya y Ovacık, la parte sureste de la falla Este de Anatolia, y las zonas de intersección de la falla este de Anatolia con la falla del Mar Muerto. En estas regiones de anomalías, una tendencia a la baja en el valor b podría ser el indicador de un aumento de tensión, y una tendencia al alza del valor z podría mostrar las zonas de inactividad antes de la ocurrencia de próximos terremotos. Como un hecho remarcable, estas áreas en la región Este de Anatolia pueden ser calificadas como unas de las más propensas a sufrir terremotos mayores en el futuro.

Atmospheric processes, such as wind, impact the ground motion of the earth and have the potential to induce strong broad-band noise in seismological records. In order to quantify the influence of wind on ground motion velocity joint seismological and meteorological measurements were conducted at the Dead Sea. Results reveal a pronounced impact of wind on seismological records. A methodology is presented to account for the dependency of PSD of ground motion velocity on the horizontal wind field.

This article presents and analyses the results obtained from Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) techniques applied to ERS-1/2, ENVISAT, ALOS-PALSAR, COSMO-SkyMed, and Sentinel-1A datasets over the Lisan Peninsula, located in the southern part of the Dead Sea, Jordan. The novelty comes from the integration of three different wavelengths to study the dynamics of a salt dome. The monitoring activity entirely covers the period extending from 1992 to 2016. Five displacement maps have been produced, carefully checked and then fused to provide a total cumulated map of the displacements in the area. The ground movements have been analysed by comparison with in-situ tectonic observations collected by various authors since the mid-1980s. The study shows an episodic rising of the Lisan diapir. The presented results can be useful to update the knowledge of the displacement rates occurring in the area and to better comprehend the complex dynamics of the Lisan Peninsula.

Based on all available files, catalogs, and previous compilations, it is found that96 historical earthquakes (M≥6.0) were felt along the Jordan Dead Sea Transform region during the last 2,000 years. More than 50 % of these occurred in the form of sequences and swarms that lasted for different periods, some of which were volcanic related. The largest assigned magnitude is 7.6 with 667 years recurrence period, while the maximum possible future magnitude is 7.8±0.2 with 1,000± 80 years recurrence period. Quiescent periods, with a duration of up to 200 and 400 years and characterized by reduced levels of seismicity, are punctuated by active periods of tens of years when a few large earthquakes occurred. The historical seismic- ity indicates that all tectonic elements of the study region are presently active. Our results indicate that previous studies over- estimate the level of seismicity in this region. Not less than 25 earthquakes, most of which had M≥7.0, are erroneously related to the transform. It is probable that most of these are located within the East Mediterranean region and/or along intraplate faults, rather than the Jordan Dead Sea Transform. This is evidenced by (i) frequency-magnitude results, (ii) moderate- large East Mediterranean tsunamis, (iii) an apparent higher seismicity of the northernmost three segments compared with the southern three, (iv) relatively high annual seismic slip rate as calculated from the compiled historical seismicity, and (v) overdependence of some previous compilations on secondary rather than primary sources. The revised historical seismicity impliesanannual seismic sliprateofabout 0.68cm/year,which indicates that not less than 30 % of the tectonic movements along the regional structures of the study region are aseismic. This is in agreement with results obtained from pre-historic and instrumental data.

The Roum fault is a fault branch of the Dead Sea Transform Fault within the Lebanese Restraining Bend. It is an active seismogenic fault that was associated with the 1 January 1837 (Ms 7.1) earthquake, and whose extent has been the subject of great controversy within the restraining bend. In this paper, the Roum fault is revisited after a dam project (the Bisri dam) has been planned in one of the fault's most critical locations, i.e. in the Bisri valley that hosted the epicenter of the 16 March 1956 (ML 5.8) earthquake. The fault and its associated structures in the proposed dam area are discussed, and highlights on the dam site are made as a geologically complex and tectonically active area. The future water body behind the planned Bisri dam will overlie an active fault, with huge potential for fault movement underneath the dam footprint, liquefaction around the dam foundations, mass movements near the dam site, and direct effect on inducing seismicity on a delicate fault system that can potentially trigger a major earthquake that can affect the whole Lebanon and its surroundings. This requires special attention and in-depth considerations especially of the potential of reservoir-induced/triggered seismicity on the seismogenic Roum fault, and makes of the Bisri area a very unfavorable site for the proposed Bisri dam in Lebanon.