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Modern methods of nuclear-explosion monitoring are vastly more capable than they were when underground nuclear testing began in the late 1950s, in part because a cycle of improvements in explosion monitoring in the 1960–80 period led to improvements in monitoring for earthquakes and other phenomena, which then led to a general growth in monitoring assets that in turn has been applied back to explosion monitoring. Practical experiences in nuclear-explosion monitoring, acquired during the era of active testing prior to finalization of the CTBT text in 1996, laid the basis for monitoring in support of this arms-control initiative. This article elaborates on the future of nuclear-test-monitoring technology, which can build upon an additional and remarkable growth of general monitoring assets that began in the 1990s, largely unrelated to the specifics of nuclear-test monitoring. A new cycle of improvements in earthquake monitoring is likely to improve monitoring for explosions. While it is not easy to quantify the degree of monitoring improvement afforded by such new assets, an example from North Korea indicates the improvement can be substantial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Standard processing of seismic events for reporting in bulletins is usually done one-at-a time. State-of-the-art relative event methods, often involving cross correlation, are increasingly used and have improved estimates of event parameters for event detection, location and magnitude. This is because relative event techniques can simultaneously reduce measurement error and effects of model error. We show how cross correlation can be used to assign relative magnitudes for neighbouring seismic events distributed over a large region in east Asia and quantify to what extent the uncertainty in these values increases as waveform similarity breaks down. We find that cross correlation works well for magnitude comparison of two events when it is expected that they generate very similar signals even if these may be almost buried in large amounts of noise. This may be the case when investigating repeating earthquakes or nuclear explosions within a few kilometres of each other. Cross correlation is the optimal detector in these cases assuming noise is white and Gaussian, and also provides the least-squares solution for the relative amplitudes. However, when the waveform similarity of the underlying signals breaks down, due to interevent separation distance, source time function differences or focal mechanism differences, these assumptions are no longer valid and a bias is introduced into the relative magnitude measurement. This bias due to degradation of waveform similarity is modelled here with synthetics and an analytic expression for it is derived based on three terms—the cross-correlation coefficient (CC), and the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the larger and smaller events. The analytic expression is a good match to the observed bias in the data. If the equation for relative magnitude is rewritten to correct for the bias due to the CC, a new equation results which is simply the log of the ratio of the L2 norms. The bias due to SNRs is still present because the observed waveforms inevitably contain both signal and noise. However, this bias is predicted to be minimal for typical detection thresholds. Making measurements of the ratio of the L2 norms is shown to remove the bias due to degradation of waveform similarity for real data. The scatter of these cross-correlation measurements of relative magnitude is much less than those obtained by differencing magnitudes in a traditional catalogue. Of 14 025 events in and near China, 34 per cent had over an order of magnitude reduction in the median standard deviation (0.0342 magnitude units) as compared to the estimated scatter in the catalogue (0.3454 magnitude units). And 78 per cent of the events show a factor 3 improvement or better in the precision of relative event size measured as the ratio of the L2 norms as compared to the precision of the catalogue for relative magnitudes. These results suggest that the ratio of the L2 norms is an appropriate measure of relative magnitudes for general seismicity of a monitoring region, when there is significant waveform dissimilarity for neighbouring events. This measure maintains a higher degree of measurement precision as compared to the catalogue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We compare traditional methods of seismic event location, based on phase pick data and analysis of events one-at-a-time, with a modern method based on cross-correlation measurements and joint analysis of numerous events. In application to four different regions representing different types of seismicity and monitored with networks of different station density, we present preliminary results indicating what fraction of seismic events may be amenable to analysis with modern methods. The latter can supply locations ten to a hundred times more precise than traditional methods. Since good locations of seismic sources are needed as the starting point for so many user communities, and potentially can be provided due to current improvements in easily-accessible computational capability, we advocate wide-scale application of modern methods in the routine production of bulletins of seismicity. This effort requires access to waveform archives from well-calibrated stations that have long operated at the same location. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismological monitoring of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) requires detailed knowledge of travel-time characteristics of seismic phases across large areas. We use first-arrival travel times from several of Russian Deep Seismic Sounding (DSS) profiles, primarily those from Peaceful Nuclear Explosions (PNEs), to construct a 3D regional travel-time model of northern Eurasia. The method used, which can be viewed as a generalization of the existing regionalization techniques, is based on apparent-velocity-based spatial interpolation of the travel times picked from DSS records. The resulting travel-time field is described in terms of an apparent velocity model in the 3D space of geographic coordinates and ray parameter. In the travel-time calibration, this model could be used to construct approximate source-specific station correction surfaces for any location within the region and also as a region-specific reference model to be used as a background for further calibration effort. This approach allows incremental refinement of the model as additional travel-time data become available. By converting the travel-time model into depth, a 3D regional velocity model is obtained, providing a description of the general features of the upper mantle in northern Eurasia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic-event location within the context of monitoring the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty entails a priori knowledge of the travel time of seismic phases for a given source to stations of the International Monitoring System (IMS). Such travel-time information (or ground truth, GT) is provided empirically by seismic reference events, events that have well-determined hypocenter locations (epicenters typically known to ± 5 km with high confidence) and origin times. In this study we present new reference events for the calibration of six seismic stations of the IMS in China, a region with high seismic activity. We use the Annual Bulletin of Chinese Earthquakes, which lists about 1000 earthquakes in and near China each year with consistent phase picks at regional stations, to determine precise relative earthquake locations from double-difference cluster analysis. The resulting high-resolution image of active faulting at seismogenic depths in areas of dense seismicity is correlated with the tectonic structure derived from mapped fault information at the surface to validate the absolute locations. We generated 59 reference events with M ≥3.5, distributed in six clusters in central and eastern China, and recorded by at least one of the six IMS stations. The scatter in relative travel-time residuals is reduced from 1.28 sec before to 0.61 sec after relocation, consistent with the relocated positions of the events. The degree of correlation between seismicity structure and well-characterized fault data indicates that, in four clusters, the locations of the new reference events are accurate to within 5 km (GT5), and in two clusters within 10 km (GT10). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyzed 18 high-quality waveform doublets with time separations of up to 35 years in the South Sandwich Islands region, for which the seismic signals have traversed the inner core as PKP(DF). The doublets show a consistent temporal change of travel times at up to 58 stations in and near Alaska, and they show a dissimilarity of PKP(DF) coda. Using waveform doublets avoids artifacts of earthquake mislocations and contamination from small-scale heterogeneities. Our results confirm that Earth's inner core is rotating faster than the mantle and crust at about 0.3° to 0.5° per year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]