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Seismic nowcasting uses counts of small earthquakes as proxy data to estimate the current dynamical state of an earthquake fault system. The result is an earthquake potential score that characterizes the current state of progress of a defined geographic region through its nominal earthquake "cycle." The count of small earthquakes since the last large earthquake is the natural time that has elapsed since the last large earthquake (Varotsos et al., 2006, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.74.021123). In addition to natural time, earthquake sequences can also be analyzed using Shannon information entropy ("information"), an idea that was pioneered by Shannon (1948, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1538‐7305.1948.tb01338.x). As a first step to add seismic information entropy into the nowcasting method, we incorporate magnitude information into the natural time counts by using event self‐information. We find in this first application of seismic information entropy that the earthquake potential score values are similar to the values using only natural time. However, other characteristics of earthquake sequences, including the interevent time intervals, or the departure of higher magnitude events from the magnitude‐frequency scaling line, may contain additional information. Plain Language Summary: Earthquake nowcasting has been developed to determine the current level of earthquake risk for seismically active areas. Historically, statistical communication theory has been developed to analyze the information content of signals involved in telecommunications and computer systems. We combine these techniques to analyze the information contained in earthquake magnitudes for great earthquakes and mega‐tsunamis. Key Points: Nowcasting was previously used to analyze earthquake data to determine current seismic risk to global megacities for magnitudes M ≥ 6We extend the method to computing hazard from great earthquake and mega‐tsunami sources arising from earthquakes with magnitudes M > 7.9We also develop nowcasting methods using the information entropy of earthquake sequences [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this manuscript, we introduce a framework for developing earthquake forecasts usingVirtual Quake (VQ), the generalized successor to the perhaps better known Virtual California (VC) earthquake simulator. We discuss the basic merits and mechanics of the simulator, and we present several statistics of interest for earthquake forecasting. We also show that, though the system as a whole (in aggregate) behaves quite randomly, (simulated) earthquake sequences limited to specific fault sections exhibit measurable predictability in the form of increasing seismicity precursory to large m>7 earthquakes. In order to quantify this, we develop an alertbased forecasting metric, and show that it exhibits significant information gain compared to random forecasts. We also discuss the long-standing question of activation versus quiescent type earthquake triggering. We show that VQ exhibits both behaviours separately for independent fault sections, some fault sections exhibit activation type triggering, while others are better characterized by quiescent type triggering. We discuss these aspects of VQ specifically with respect to faults in the Salton Basin and near the El Mayor-Cucapah region in southern California, USA and northern Baja California Norte, Mexico. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Terra Nova, 23, 369-374, 2011 Abstract Seismic precursors revealed by statistical physics methods are important for earthquake forecasting and helpful for understanding fault behaviour. One of the precursors, earthquake migration, has been observed in simulated models and rock experiments, as well as anecdotal observations for large earthquakes along major fault zones. However, there has been no systematic methodology for investigating earthquake migration in nature, and only a small number of studies have observed earthquake migration at large scales. In this work, we show that migration of small earthquakes towards the epicentre before large earthquakes can be visualized. We present a method for detecting small earthquake migration in the spatiotemporal domain, and retrospectively apply it to two recent examples of major earthquakes in Taiwan. We observe that anomalous seismicity occurs increasingly close to the epicentre as the occurrence time is approached. At that point, the bulk of the seismicity concentrates on the epicentre, accumulating stress on the rupture zone and leading to the full rupture. Our findings imply a new type of large-scale pre-seismic earthquake migration pattern that is complementary to the well-studied patterns of source-region activation and quiescence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In weather forecasting, current and past observational data are routinely assimilated into numerical simulations to produce ensemble forecasts of future events in a process termed “model steering”. Here we describe a similar approach that is motivated by analyses of previous forecasts of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP). Our approach is adapted to the problem of earthquake forecasting using topologically realistic numerical simulations for the strike-slip fault system in California. By systematically comparing simulation data to observed paleoseismic data, a series of spatial probability density functions (PDFs) can be computed that describe the probable locations of future large earthquakes. We develop this approach and show examples of PDFs associated with magnitude M > 6.5 and M > 7.0 earthquakes in California. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Corrections to the paper "Scaling Properties of the Parkfield Aftershock Sequence," by Robert Sheherbakov, Donald L. Turcotte and John B. Rundle that was published in the September 2006 issue are presented.

We report the retrospective analyses of frequency-magnitude distributions (FMD) and pattern informatics (PI) for the Pingtung offshore doublet earthquakes having magnitudes 6.7 and 6.4. The frequency-magnitude distributions of earthquakes that occurred in the study area preceding the Pingtung doublets demonstrate the activation of moderate events since March 2004, about three years before the Pingtung doublets. In addition, in the calculated PI map, the hypocentral area of the doublets exhibits the signatures of anomalous activity associated with the precursory seismic activation. Our study therefore suggests that, by inspecting temporal variations in the frequency-magnitude distributions of earthquakes, together with the hotspot locations with intense seismicity changes in the PI map, it is possible to shed light on the relevant preparation processes of the forthcoming large earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Correlations in space and time play a fundamental role in earthquake processes. One direct manifestation of the effects of correlations is the occurrence of aftershocks due to the stress transfer in the vicinity of a main shock. Less obvious and more speculative changes in correlations may occur in the background seismicity before large earthquakes. Using statistical physics it is possible to introduce a measure of spatial correlations through a correlation length. This quantity characterizes how local fluctuations can influence the occurrence of earthquakes over distances comparable with the correlation length. In this work, the physical basis of spatial correlations of earthquakes is discussed in the context of critical phenomena and the percolation problem. The method of two-point correlation function is applied to the seismicity of California. Well defined variations in time of the correlation length are found for aftershock sequences and background seismicity. The scaling properties of our obtained distributions are analyzed with respect to changes in several scaling parameters such as lower magnitude cutoff of earthquakes, the maximum time interval between earthquakes, and the spatial size of the area considered. This scaling behavior can be described in a unified manner by utilizing the multifractal fit. Utilizing the percolation approach the time evolution of clusters of earthquakes is studied with the correlation length defined in terms of the radius of gyration of clusters. This method is applied to the seismicity of California. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]