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Start Over Descriptor "wargaming" Topic simulation
14 results on '"wargaming"'

1. The wargame commodity course of action automated analysis method.

Author

DeBerry, William T., Dill, Richard, Hopkinson, Kenneth, Hodson, Douglas D., and Grimaila, Michael

Abstract

This research presents the wargaming commodity course of action automated analysis method (WCCAAM) – a novel approach to assist wargame commanders in developing and analyzing courses of action (COAs) through semi-automation of the military decision making process (MDMP). MDMP is a seven-step iterative method that commanders and mission partners follow to build an operational course of action to achieve strategic objectives. MDMP requires time, resources, and coordination – all competing items the commander weighs to make the optimal decision. WCCAAM receives the MDMP's Mission Analysis phase as input, converts the wargame into a directed graph, processes a multi-commodity flow algorithm on the nodes and edges, where the commodities represent units, and the nodes represent blue bases and red threats, and then programmatically processes the MDMP steps to output the recommended COA. To demonstrate its use, a military scenario developed in the Advanced Framework for Simulation, Integration, and Modeling (AFSIM) processes the various factors through WCCAAM and produces an optimal, minimal risk COA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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2. The effects of aircraft use and available repair spares on aircraft sortie generation: a long-duration logistical wargaming simulation tool.

Author

Choo, Nathaniel, Ahner, Darryl, and Champagne, Lance

Abstract

Long-duration logistical wargames within the Air domain are complex and highly dynamic events that are driven by aircraft availability. In order to gain insight into the impact of aircraft use, this research developed a simulation tool that uses a stepwise approach for adjudication and provides the user many capabilities including, but not limited to, the ability to have multiple bases and types of aircraft. Daily aircraft availability and missions accomplished are two critical metrics of interest. Within the simulation, the user has the ability to control types of part failures, control parts availability, control maintenance capabilities, and control number of mission scheduled. Finally, the user can account for the possibility of attrition along with the effects of numerous major events present in real-life scenarios. This tool is validated through application of a space covering design along with regression modeling and shows that the tool is well-behaved, functions as expected, and can quickly provide meaningful insights into operational scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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5. Wargaming: its history and future.

Author

Mason, Roger C.

Subjects
*WAR games, *IMAGINATION, *PERSONS, *FORECASTING, *PLANNING
Abstract

Wargames have captured the imagination of persons seeking a competitive edge over their opponents. For over a thousand years people have used games to analyze problems, develop solutions, and train problem solvers. This paper reviews critical developments and innovations in the history of wargames. Wargames provide an opportunity to test hypotheses, offer alternatives, solve problems, and stimulate innovation. Wargames continue to offer opportunities to understand possible future states and develop compatible decision models [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2018
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6. Modelling the Outcomes of International Crises Using Confrontation Analysis.

Author

Curry, John, Ruggiero, Dana, Sabin, Phil, and Young, Michael

Subjects
*INTERNATIONAL conflict, *WAR games, *CONFLICT management, *SIMULATION methods & models, *GAME theory, *ROLEPLAYING games, *LIBYAN Conflict, 2011-
Abstract

Aim. To explore the professional application of Professor Nigel Howard's 1998 Confrontation Analysis method of modelling political conflicts. Case Study. The Confrontation Analysis methodology was applied to the design of a political-military (pol-mil) game held at the UK's Defence Academy in 2011 to examine the future course of the then current Libyan Civil War. Methodology. Confrontation Analysis provides a structured schema to help identify the parties involved in a dispute, highlight the differences in their narratives, find the subsequent dilemmas and attempt to resolve them to move the situation on. This helps provide rigour to analysis, negotiation and decision making as it clearly documents initial policy positions and subsequent changes through the use of cards which summarise each stakeholder's position at each stage. Value. The methodology, used in conjunction with role-play and multi-player teams, was found to have some utility, not in forecasting detailed outcomes, but in highlighting key aspects of the potential development of the situation. This research concluded that Confrontation Analysis can make a significant contribution to understanding and analyzing international crises as well as assisting in formulating successful national policy. Confrontation Analysis can be also be an invaluable part of a learning process for analysts and key decision makers facing real crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2017
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7. ROBUST ANALYSIS OF CRITICAL FACTORS FOR CANNON ARTILLERY LETHALITY AND SURVIVABILITY IN PEER CONFLICT

Author

Kadrmas, Caleb M., Lucas, Thomas W., Appleget, Jeffrey A., and Operations Research (OR)

Subjects
analysis, survivability, wargaming, design, tactics, and procedures, Russia, efficient, robust, lethality, experimentation, TTPs, artillery, cannon, agent-based, near-peer, cluster, experiment, wargame, simulation, counterbattery, design of experiments, employment, battery, counter, planning, techniques, force, guidance
Abstract

Guided by the Commandant's Planning Guidance and Force Design 2030, the Marine Corps is currently undergoing aggressive organizational change to evolve into a more disruptive force within the context of great power competition. An increase of rocket artillery batteries from seven to 21 is planned to expand deterrence capability, and a divestment in cannon batteries from 21 to five parallels this focus. The retention of cannon artillery, although reduced, can be improved to offer tactical maneuver-based offensive and defensive firepower to Marines across the range of military operations. This thesis explores which equipment and tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) are most critical for USMC cannon artillery lethality and survivability in a Russia counterbattery scenario. Furthermore, this study proposes potential artillery configurations that are resilient to uncontrollable variations of the Russian artillery force. Using agent-based simulation, efficient designs of experiments, and cluster computing, over 1.3 million artillery battles were simulated and analyzed. The findings include that the equipment currently fielded by USMC artillery battalions is largely in line with the most significant factors for lethality and survivability (caliber and range). However, significant changes to current TTPs, specifically increased segmentation and dispersion, are necessary for force protection and mission success. Outstanding Thesis Captain, United States Marine Corps Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Published
2021

8. Wargaming in higher education: Contributions and challenges.

Author

Sabin, Philip

Subjects
WAR games, HIGHER education, LITERACY, LANGUAGE & languages, UNIVERSITIES & colleges
Abstract

Wargames, especially on historical conflicts, do not currently play much part in the booming academic use of simulation and gaming techniques. This is despite the fact that they offer rich vehicles for active learning and interactive exploration of conflict dynamics. Constraints of time, expertise and resources do make it challenging to employ wargames in academia, but a greater problem is the stigma which wargaming attracts due to its association with childish enthusiasts and its perceived deficiencies as a modelling technique. This article builds on my many years of teaching and research experience with wargames to show how playing and designing them can benefit students and scholars alike. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2015
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9. Naval Research Program 2021 Annual Report

Author

Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.), Naval Research Program, Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.), and Naval Research Program (NRP)

Subjects
operational planning, GPS, STORM, communications, NOSSA, Logistics, military operations in the information environment, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and targeting, operational effectiveness analysis, Shi, CubeSat form factor, hypervelocity missile, MDUSV, cognitive radio, LOCE, EMP, adoption, PBT, sensing, systems engineering, geopolitical issues, response, social identity, strategic supply chains, CIR, time series analysis, acoustic vector sensors, high frequency, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, Predictive Modeling, communications intelligence, simulation, neural networks, Naval Expeditionary Forces, AFSI, MQ-25A, multilevel networks, C5ISRT, nuclear weapons, symbol error rate, JP-5, TLA, competence, UxV networked control system, tactical maneuver, SATCOM, pilot training, EOD, Navy Analytic Agenda, DMO, SysML, programs of record (PoRs), Joint Task Force Commander, resource generators, competency model, trust, CLA, NAE, item mission essentiality code, design of experiments, joint campaign analysis, DoD, WIEVLE, ERA5, electronic intelligence, cognition, Long Range Unmanned Surface Vessel, GBASM, USMC, information environment operations, delivery schedule, networking, failures, radio communications, combat modeling, naval power, mobile learning, Department of Defense, DOE, collection, Arctic Ocean, coefficient of variance, Reliability Engineering, information operations, FRWQ, OFDM, unexploded ordinance detection, subseasonal to seasonal, training, non-lethal weapons, Special Operations Forces, 3D printing, pre-positioning, artificial intelligence, GPS-denied navigation, competency, VSW, SZ, alcohol-drug abuse, renewable, Optimization, ISRT, non-kinetic targeting, batteries, Red Cell analysis, degraded communications, business intelligence, EMCON, storage, ESG, salvos, interdependence analysis, supply chain, constant energy modulation, Information Stream, zoning, CWMD, pandemic, performance-based training, littoral operations in contested environments, Firing Theory, Great Power War, MCM, competency-based education, Earth Systems Prediction Capability (ESPC), virtualization, DRL, Assignment Modeling, cyber-security, signals intelligence, hydrodynamics, transport, social capital, Finance, MDA, mission planning, human on the loop control, EDRAM, force structure, transmission control protocol, Wargaming, Bonuses, emissions control, law, Navy ESPC, exponential random graph models (ERGMs), laser weapon system, C-UxS,C-UxS Security, mobile telephony, flashbang grenades, naval tactical grid, UUV, High Intensity Conflict, logistical independence, situational awareness, wireless communications, Hadoop, tactical operations centers, battery, Denied, Disrupted, Intermittent, and Limited (DDIL), COMINT, agent-based simulation, energy, Heat Treatment, Maintenance, cost model, unmanned security, CSG, standoff, JADC2, PLM, Budgeting, NMCS, OODA, Domain Awareness, internet protocol, Wreck Interior Exploration Vehicle, resilience, C2, deep reinforcement learning, subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), information warfare, cyber, modeling, humility, UxV, and Modeling, Document relevance, AI, fire support coordination, Commander’s Intelligence Requirements, UxV NCS, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, fusion, combat logistics, expeditionary advanced base operations, Great Power Competition, RRL, Tribes, medical, Machine Learning, access, procurement lead time, Grey Zone Conflict, lead time reduction, capabilities assessment, distributed maritime operations, MS sensor, Atlantic Ocean, discrete event simulation, POM, surf zone, Model Based Systems Engineering Methodology for Employing Architecture for Systems Analysis, regulation, energy optimization, C5I, representing situations, technology adoption, officer pay, campaign analysis, littoral operations in a contested environment, BFTN, PPE, Naval Special Warfare Command, Intelligence Gathering, maritime domain awareness, target tracking, F-76, Compensation, budget, EABO, leadership, very shallow water, industrial base, explosive ordnance disposal, LRUSV, security, data farming, CONOPS, RAATM, Cold Spray, projected situational awareness, meteorology and oceanography (METOC), automation, C-UAS, human machine teaming, A2/AD, Program Objective Memorandum, Apache Webserver, Reliability Predictions, distributed operations, behavioral decision making, Systems Modeling Language, MBSE MEASA, sUAS, learning management systems, USVs, Seabed-to-Space, event-driven graph data model, offensive mine warfare, HF, peer-to-peer systems, Battlefield Tactical Network, causal learning, cellular telephony, Integration, classifications, infrastructure, counter-unmanned systems, context, orthogonal division multiplexing, constructive simulation, automated decision aids, air- to-air refueling, counter-detection, escalation ladder, federated learning, ground-based anti-ship missile, Unmanned Surface Vessels, addictive behaviors, High Altitude Platforms, business model, maritime strategy, Tropical cyclones, AVO, technology, counter-proliferation, PESTONI, LLA, decision support systems, additive manufacturing, ordnance, safety, NATO, non-mission capable supply, inventory management, Salvo Model, lexical link analysis, beamforming, diversity, anti, navigational aid, Aviation Depot Readiness Availability Model, satellite communications, acoustic intensity processing, land use, Crowds, LMS, lighter-than-air gas delivery system, IP, trade studies, command and control (C2), Indo-Pacific, Ready Relevant Learning, generative adversarial networks, Portfolio, LEO, low-Earth orbit, ML, informal networks, Naval Expeditionary Combat Forces, blockchain, social network analysis, data analysis, strike group protection, cloud based, sea-control, model-based systems engineering, data visualization, 3-Tier Architecture, offensive mining, evidence-based training, Baltic, Deterrence, Distributed Lethality, Enhanced Forward Presence, Fleet Design, Fleet Posture, Grey Zone Conflict, Host Nation Support, NATO, Naval Bases, Naval Operations, Russia, risk, mine countermeasures, NSS, BZ, intelligence community, Advanced Framework for Simulation, anti-ship missile, courses of action, joint all-domain command and control, Model Based Systems Engineering, CP, Retention, arms race, UAS, human-machine teaming, regulatory, NTG, CR, battle management aids, mixed integer program, ELINT, Navy training, alcohol and drug management, UAV, EBT, Recruiting, unmanned aerial systems, decision making, C-UAS Security, Naval Simulation System, Mechanical Properties, Synthetic Theater Operations Research Model, hypervelocity missile ship launch platform, Chinese Communist Party, root causes, countering weapons of mass destruction, C-UAS interoperability, COVID-19, agent-based modeling, decision-making, safety analysis, naval fuel, Turnover, inclusion, secondary repairable materiel, data science, dynamical-statistical forecasting, gap analysis, permitting, control, Reports, C-UAS developing technology, Vertical Launch System, load balancing, detection, unmanned, PV, digital twins, blue networks, Russia, Video Game, Observe-Orient-Decide-Act, SIGINT, mine, data maturation, Readiness optimization, cognitive laser, emergent behavior, Alliance Cohesion, bit error rate, solar, ADRAM, antenna arrays, feature extraction and matching, LTA, hydrogen fuel cell, Database Schema Design, contested environment, CBE, simulations, efficient experimental design, blended learning strategies, system safety, TCP, CBA, policy, unmanned surface vessel (USV), Naval Aviation Enterprise, coercion, China, electromagnetic pulse, CBT, vision odometry, psychological functioning, operations, development processes, photovoltaic, collaborative learning agents, cycle of research, SA, high-quality force, Markov-Chain, Total Learning Architecture, wargames, Monterey Phoenix, HMT, CCP, tasking, Data Analytics, non-kinetic weapons, (non) permissive environment, MCDA, 5G NR, microgrid, financially restricted work queue, command and control, communications, computers, cyber, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and targeting, beach zone, aggregation over layers, Naval Expeditionary Combat Command (NECC), processing, air and missile defense, internet, denied environment, social processes, C-UAS use constraints, seabed warfare, quantum intelligence game, modeling and simulation, cost benefit analysis, clandestine, unmanned systems, counter-unmanned aerial systems, interconnection, decision science, legal, CEM, acquisition, SER, program management, Resetting Anchor Antenna Tether Mechanism, soft skills, Tactics, deterrence, decision support, Dynamic Programming, cybersecurity, workflow, sea-denial, competency-based training, unmanned aerial, surface, underwater and ground vehicles, instructional design, exploitation and dissemination (TCPED, supervised learning, electrolyzer, contextually adaptive battlespace, models, intermittency, information fusion, wind, orchestration, ISR, missile defense, great power competition (GPC), BER, transformation, social network analysis (SNA), fifth generation cellular - new radio, human-machine trust, sustainment, Joint Targeting Folders, ML, Problematic video gaming, casualty report, weapons engagements, tactical warfare, metacognition
Abstract

NPS NRP Annual Report The Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) Naval Research Program (NRP) is funded by the Chief of Naval Operations and supports research projects for the Navy and Marine Corps. The NPS NRP serves as a launch-point for new initiatives which posture naval forces to meet current and future operational warfighter challenges. NRP research projects are led by individual research teams that conduct research and through which NPS expertise is developed and maintained. The primary mechanism for obtaining NPS NRP support is through participation at NPS Naval Research Working Group (NRWG) meetings that bring together fleet topic sponsors, NPS faculty members, and students to discuss potential research topics and initiatives. Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Published
2021

10. The Peace Support Operations Model: Strategic Interaction Process.

Author

Strong, Paul

Abstract

Modeling complex social interaction creates a number of challenges for the strategic analyst. Firstly, the fundamental basis of an operational model has to be based on rational and verifiable metrics, but recognize that human interaction in the real world is often irrational and is rarely verifiable. Secondly, the evolving discourse between factions almost always influences the ongoing process of interaction — often creating entirely new modes of interaction as the scenario unfolds. Our solution was to continue to base the Peace Support Operations Model (PSOM) Operational Game on verifiable metrics and create an interaction process designed to include those modes of interaction that are ill-suited to structured analysis and better addressed by processes that can adapt to shifts in strategic emphasis. The PSOM Strategic Interaction Process thus follows the same turn-based design as the Operational Game, but creates a framework for political interaction and the recording of faction intent as the game proceeds. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Published
2011
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11. Identification of risk

Author

Ramšak, Urška and Jagrič, Vita

Subjects
simulacija Monte Carlo, finančno tveganje, analiza scenarija, wargaming, financial risks, udc:330.1, Monte-Carlo simulation, scenario analysis, simulation, simulacija, risks, tveganje
Abstract

V prvem delu diplomske naloge predstavljamo problem upravljanja tveganja, namene in zastavljene cilje, ki jim bomo sledili v raziskavi. Opredeljujemo tudi predpostavke in omejitve pri predvideni metodi raziskovanja. V drugem delu se osredotočamo na pojem tveganj: kaj pomeni tveganje ter kako ga opredeljujejo različni avtorji. Osredotočili se bomo tudi na različne vrste tveganja, kot so splošno tveganje, operativno tveganje in finančno tveganje, pri tem pa se bomo osredotočili še na valutno tveganje, obrestno tveganje, likvidnostno tveganje in kreditno tveganje. V tem delu predstavljamo tudi merjenje tveganj. V tretjem delu smo na kratko predstavili strategije obvladovanja finančnega tveganja, kot so prepoznavanje tveganj, vrednotenje tveganj in obvladovanje tveganj, ter posamezno tveganje tudi na kratko predstavili. V četrtem poglavju naloge opisujemo in predstavljamo osnovne pojme, ki jih uporabljamo v kontekstu simulacij za prepoznavanje finančnega tveganja. Pojasnjujemo pojem simulacija, ciljne količine, parametre, pojem scenarija in modele. V zadnjem poglavju se osredotočamo na simulacijske metode, ki jih uporabljamo pri prepoznavanju tveganj. Predstavljamo metodo analize scenarijev, simulacijo Monte Carlo, diskretno simulacijo dogodkov, sistemsko dinamiko in simulacijo wargaming. In the first part of my work, I am presenting the problem of risk management, purposes and I will set goals which I will follow in the reaserch. I also define the assumptions and constraints of the predicted method of reasearch. In the second part I focus on the concept of risk, what is the risk and how it is defined by various authors. I also focus on the different types of risks, such as general risk, operational risk and financial risk, while focusing on currency risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk and credit risk. In this part, I also present measuring the risks. In the third part, I briefly present a strategy for managing the financial risks, such as risk identification, risk assessment and risk management. I also briefly present the risks. In the fourth chapter of the assignment, I describe and I present the basic concept that we use in the context of simulations for identifying financial risks. I explain the concept of simulation, target quantities, parameters, concept of the script and models. In the final section, I focus on the simulation methods used to identify risks. I present the method of scenario analysis, Monte-Carlo simulation, discrete simulation of events, system dynamics and Wargaming simulation.

Published
2018

12. Interval-based simulation to model input uncertainty in stochastic Lanchester models

Author

Batarseh, Ola, Singham, Dashi, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, and Operations Research (OR)

Subjects
OR METHODS: Simulation, Wargaming, Modeling, Simulation
Abstract

The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.5711/1082598318161 Interval-based simulation (IBS) has been proposed to model input uncertainty in discrete-event simulation. The foundation of this new simulation paradigm is imprecise probability, which models systems under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The statistical distribution parameters in IBS are represented by intervals instead of precise real numbers. This paper discusses how the IBS approach can be applied to stochastic Lanchester models that are used in combat simulation to better account for input parameter uncertainty. The advantages of this approach are explored in comparison with second-order Monte Carlo simulation. Using IBS, an improved estimate of the probability of a team winning a battle is calculated by taking advantage of the interval structure. By resampling from intervals to determine event times, we can separate the effect of parameters uncertainty from random number generator uncertainty to estimate the probability that one team will win for given stream of random numbers used in a signle replication. Additionally, we show how our method can be used to improve the reliability of stochastic Lanchester results by accounting for different skill levels within each team, and show how the interval structure can be used to highlight the disproportionate effect of the first encounters in the battle.

Published
2013

13. Wargaming in support of command, control and communications experiments

Author

Sherfey, Linda M., Walsh, William J., Sovereign, Michael, Naval Postgraduate School, and Systems Technology

Subjects
Wargaming, Hypothesis Testing, Command, control, and communication, C3, Experiments, Simulation
Abstract

The purpose of this thesis is to provide information about wargaming to prospective users. An in depth discussion focussing on two primary components ofwargaming is presented. The first component is wargaming in general. A description is provided of wargaming features and a discussion concerning the limitations and hazards inherent to wargames. The second component is how to design a wargame experiment to support command, control, and communications (C3) hypotheses testing. A description of the steps in planning a general wargame experiment including detailed information on wargame software considerations is presented. Finally a synopsis followed by a critique of an actual C3 wargame experiment is provided as an example of the principles given in this thesis. http://archive.org/details/wargaminginsuppo1094524106 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Published
1992

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