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We present the spatiotemporal evolution of the Boso slow slip event with a moment of 20 × 1018 N m that occurred in June 2018; such events, which have a duration of 1–2 weeks, have repeatedly occurred off the Boso peninsula, east Japan. The initial rupture of the 2018 event started off central Boso peninsula and the center of the rupture area moved southward over time, as was observed in previous events. The moment and the slip rate of the 2018 event are the largest among the previous Boso slow slip events. The recurrence interval of major Boso slow slip events has changed from 4 to 6 years before the 2011 Tohoku earthquake to intervals of 0.6, 2.2 and then 4.4 years after the Tohoku earthquake. It has taken 7 years for the recurrence interval of the major Boso slow slip events to roughly recover to that before the Tohoku earthquake. The relationship between the cumulative moment and recurrence time indicates a slip-predictable model rather than a time-predictable model before the Tohoku earthquake. If a slip-predictable model holds after the Tohoku earthquake, there was possibly an increase in the moment release rate after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Boso slow slip events are changing the stress state in favor of the occurrence of an interplate earthquake along the Sagami trough, Japan. Graphic abstract

SUMMARY The eastern offshore of Martinique is one of the active areas of the Lesser Antilles Subduction Zone (LASZ). Although its seismicity is moderate compared to other subduction zones, LASZ is capable of generating a M 7+ interplate earthquake and recent studies and historical events, such as the M 8 1839 and M 7–7.5 1946 earthquakes, confirm this possibility. Given the high risk that Martinique can face in case of unpreparedness for such a M 7+ earthquake, and the lack of a regional seismic hazard study, we investigated through numerical modelling how ground motion can vary for a hypothetical Mw 7.5 interplate earthquake. Our main objective is to highlight the major factors related to earthquake source that can cause the highest variation in ground motion at four broad-band seismic stations across Martinique. For this purpose, we generated 320 rupture scenarios through a fractal kinematic source model, by varying rupture directivity, source dimension, slip distribution. We computed the broad-band ground motion (0.5–25 Hz) by convolution of source–time functions with empirical Green’s functions (EGFs), that we selected from the analysis of moderate events (M 4–4.5) recorded in the area of interest since 2016 by the West Indies network. We found that the fault geometry and the spatial extension of the largest slip patch are the most influential factors on ground motion. The significance of the variation of the predicted ground motion with respect to ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) depends on the evaluated frequency of ground motion and on the station. Moreover, we concluded that the EGF selection can be another significant factor controlling the modelled ground motion depending on station. Our results provide a new insight for the seismic source impact on ground motion across Martinique and can guide future blind seismic hazard assessment studies in different regions.

The 2011 March 11 Tohoku-oki great (Mw 9.1) earthquake ruptured the plate boundary megathrust fault offshore of northern Honshu with estimates of shallow slip of 50 m and more near the trench. Non-uniform slip extended ~ 220 km across the width and ~ 400 km along strike of the subduction zone. Extensive data provided by regional networks of seismic and geodetic stations in Japan and global networks of broadband seismic stations, regional and global ocean bottom pressure sensors and sea level measurement stations, seafloor GPS/Acoustic displacement sites, repeated multi-channel reflection images, extensive coastal runup and inundation observations, and in situ sampling of the shallow fault zone materials and temperature perturbation, make the event the best-recorded and most extensively studied great earthquake to date. An effort is made here to identify the more robust attributes of the rupture as well as less well constrained, but likely features. Other issues involve the degree to which the rupture corresponded to geodetically-defined preceding slip-deficit regions, the influence of re-rupture of slip regions for large events in the past few centuries, and relationships of coseismic slip to precursory slow slip, foreshocks, aftershocks, afterslip, and relocking of the megathrust. Frictional properties associated with the slip heterogeneity and in situ measurements of frictional heating of the shallow fault zone support low stress during shallow sliding and near-total shear stress drop of ~ 10–30 MPa in large-slip regions in the shallow megathrust. The roles of fault morphology, sediments, fluids, and dynamical processes in the rupture behavior continue to be examined; consensus has not yet been achieved. The possibility of secondary sources of tsunami excitation such as inelastic deformation of the sedimentary wedge or submarine slumping remains undemonstrated; dislocation models in an elastic continuum appear to sufficiently account for most mainshock observations, although afterslip and viscoelastic processes remain contested.

Copyright © The Author(s) 2018. The September 2017 Chiapas (Mexico) normal-faulting intraplate earthquake (Mw 8.1) occurred within the Tehuantepec seismic gap offshore Mexico. We constrained the finite-fault slip model of this great earthquake using teleseismic and tsunami observations. First, teleseismic body-wave inversions were conducted for both steep (NP-1) and low-angle (NP-2) nodal planes for rupture velocities (Vr) of 1.5–4.0 km/s. Teleseismic inversion guided us to NP-1 as the actual fault plane, but was not conclusive about the best Vr. Tsunami simulations also confirmed that NP-1 is favored over NP-2 and guided the Vr = 2.5 km/s as the best source model. Our model has a maximum and average slips of 13.1 and 3.7 m, respectively, over a 130 km × 80 km fault plane. Coulomb stress transfer analysis revealed that the probability for the occurrence of a future large thrust interplate earthquake at offshore of the Tehuantepec seismic gap had been increased following the 2017 Chiapas normal-faulting intraplate earthquake.

Recent megathrust events in Tohoku (Japan), Maule (Chile), and Sumatra (Indonesia) were well recorded. Much has been learned about the dominant physical processes in megathrust zones: (partial) locking of the plate interface, detailed coseismic slip, relocking, afterslip, viscoelastic mantle relaxation, and interseismic loading. These and older observations show complex spatial and temporal patterns in crustal deformation and displacement, and significant differences among different margins. A key question is whether these differences reflect variations in the underlying processes, like differences in locking, or the margin geometry, or whether they are a consequence of the stage in the earthquake cycle of the margin. Quantitative models can connect these plate boundary processes to surficial and far-field observations. We use relatively simple, cyclic geodynamic models to isolate the first-order geodetic signature of the megathrust cycle. Coseismic and subsequent slip on the subduction interface is dynamically (and consistently) driven. A review of global preseismic, coseismic, and postseismic geodetic observations, and of their fit to the model predictions, indicates that similar physical processes are active at different margins. Most of the observed variability between the individual margins appears to be controlled by their different stages in the earthquake cycle. The modeling results also provide a possible explanation for observations of tensile faulting aftershocks and tensile cracking of the overriding plate, which are puzzling in the context of convergence/compression. From the inversion of our synthetic GNSS velocities we find that geodetic observations may incorrectly suggest weak locking of some margins, for example, the west Aleutian margin.

The Queen Charlotte plate boundary, near Haida Gwaii, B.C., includes the dextral, strike-slip, Queen Charlotte Fault (QCF) and the subduction interface between the downgoing Pacific and overriding North American plates. In this study, we present a comprehensive repeating earthquake catalogue that represents an effective slip meter for both structures. The catalogue comprises 712 individual earthquakes (0.3≤MW≤3.5) arranged into 224 repeating earthquake families on the basis of waveform similarity and source-separation estimates from coda wave interferometry. We employ and extend existing relationships for repeating earthquake magnitudes and slips to provide cumulative slip histories for the QCF and subduction interface in 6 adjacent zones within the study area between 52.3° N and 53.8° N. We find evidence for creep on both faults; however, creep rates are significantly less than plate motion rates, which suggests partial locking of both faults. The QCF exhibits the highest degrees of locking south of 52.8° N, which indicates that the seismic hazard for a major strike-slip earthquake is highest in the southern part of the study area. The October 28, 2012, MW 7.8 Haida Gwaii thrust earthquake occurred in our study area and altered the slip dynamics of the plate boundary. The QCF is observed to undergo accelerated, right-lateral slip for 1-2 months following the earthquake. The subduction interface exhibits afterslip thrust motion that persists for the duration of the study period (i.e., 3 years and 2 months after the Haida Gwaii earthquake). Afterslip is greatest (5.7 - 8.4 cm/yr) on the periphery of the main rupture zone of the Haida Gwaii event.

This study analyzes surface displacements generated by a low magnitude crustal earthquake in the Ecuadorian Andes by combining analysis of SAR Interferometry, geological field investigations and seismological data. In March 2010, a significant surface faulting event occurred in the Pisayambo area (Eastern cordillera), along the major dextral fault zone bounding the North Andean Sliver and the South-America Plate. Interferograms were inverted to determine fault plane geometry and slip displacement distribution. The event affected a 9 km-long previously unknown fault, referred as the Laguna Pisayambo Fault (LPF), with purely dextral movement reaching 45 cm and concentrated in the top 3 km of the crust. Geological investigations confirm both the fault mechanism and the amplitude of displacements. While these large displacements would be related to an event with a magnitude of 5.44 if using a standard crustal rigidity, we show that they can be convincingly associated with an Mw5.0 earthquake, that occurred on 2010/03/26. Reconciling the apparent differences in magnitude requires the existence of a low rigidity medium at shallow depths and/or postseismic activity of the fault. However, considering only the latter hypothesis would imply an unusually active postseismic process, in which 400-500% of the coseismic moment is released in the 6 days following the earthquake. Our observations highlight that the scaling laws relating surface observations to earthquake magnitude, classically used for seismic hazard assessment, should be carefully used. This study also illustrates how systematic InSAR analysis, even in places where no clues of ground deformation are present, can reveal tectonic processes.

The northwestern Yunnan rift zone in the Yunnan Province of China is a seismically active region located along the western boundary of the Sichuan–Yunnan Block on the eastern margin of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau. An earthquake with a magnitude of 6.6 (Mw) occurred in this region on February 3, 1996. The Lijiang earthquake was the largest normal-faulting event to occur along the western boundary of the Sichuan–Yunnan Block in the last 40 years. In this study, we used L-band JERS-1 (Japanese Earth Resources Satellite-1) SAR data sets from two descending orbits to detect surface deformation signals surrounding the epicentral region in order to estimate the source parameters through an inversion of the displacement fields. The results indicated that the earthquake can be explained by slip along two segments of the ∼N–S trending listric normal fault, named the Lijiang–Daju fault. Coseismic deformation patterns and slip distributions revealed that the earthquake consisted of two sub-events, which were also suggested by seismological results. Based on an analysis of the static Coulomb stress change, the second sub-event was likely triggered by the first sub-event. The central segment of the Lijiang–Daju fault, which has an eastward-convex geometry, did not rupture during the earthquake. This phenomenon was probably related to a geometrical discontinuity at the fault-bend area of the Lijiang–Daju fault.

Following a sequence of three Slow Slip Events (SSEs) on the northern Hikurangi Margin, between June 2015 and August 2016, a Mw 7.1 earthquake struck ~30 km offshore of the East Cape region in the North Island of New Zealand on the 2nd September 2016 (NZ local time). The earthquake was also followed by a transient deformation event (SSE or afterslip) northeast of the North Island, closer to the earthquake source area. We use data from New Zealand's continuous Global Positioning System (cGPS) networks to invert for the SSE slip distribution and evolution on the Hikurangi subduction interface. Our slip inversion results show an increasing amplitude of the slow slip towards the Te Araroa earthquake foreshock and mainshock area, suggesting a possible triggering of the Mw 7.1 earthquake by the later stage of the slow slip sequence. We also show that the transient deformation following the Te Araroa earthquake ruptured a portion of the Hikurangi Trench northeast of the North Island, further north than any previously observed Hikurangi margin SSEs. Our slip inversion and the coulomb stress calculation suggest that this transient may have been induced as a response to the increase in the static coulomb stress change downdip of the rupture plane on the megathrust. These observations show the importance of considering the interaction between slow slip events, seismic and aseismic events, not only on the same megathrust interface, but also on faults within the surrounding crust.

Following the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake, uncertainty over the nature of the coseismic rupture developed. Seismological evidence pointed to significant involvement of the subduction megathrust, while geodetic and field observations pointed to a shallow set of intracrustal faults as the main participants during the earthquake. The addition of tsunami observations and modeling as reported in Bai et al. (2017) places additional constraints on the specific location of coseismic slip, which when combined with other observations indicates the simultaneous occurrence of shallow slip on the subduction interface and slip on overlying, upper crustal fault structures. This Kaikoura-style earthquake, involving synchronous ruptures on multiple components of the plate boundary, is an important mode of plate boundary deformation affecting seismic hazard along subduction zones.

We investigated spatiotemporal change in the interplate seismic activity following the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake (M9.0) in the region where interseismic interplate coupling was relatively weak and large postseismic slip was observed. We classified earthquakes by their focal mechanisms to identify the interplate events and conducted hypocenter relocation to examine the detailed spatiotemporal distribution of interplate earthquakes in the mostly creeping area. The results show that many interplate earthquakes, including M~6 events, emerged immediately after the Tohoku-oki earthquake in areas where very few interplate earthquakes had been observed in the 88 previous years. The emergent earthquakes include repeating sequences, and the extremely long quiescence of small to moderate earthquakes before the Tohoku-oki earthquake suggests that the source areas for the post-M9 events slipped aseismically during the quiescence. The repeaters’ magnitudes decayed over time following the Tohoku-oki earthquake and some sequences disappeared within a year. The emergence of interplate earthquakes suggests that areas where aseismic slip had been dominant before the Tohoku-oki earthquake, started to cause seismic slip after the earthquake, probably due to the increased loading rate from the afterslip. The magnitude decrease and disappearance of repeaters can be interpreted as shrinkage in seismic areas around the repeaters’ sources as the loading rate decreased due to the afterslip decay over time. These observations suggest that changes in the loading rate can cause slip behavior transition between seismic and aseismic. This indicates that such loading-rate-dependent slip behavior plays an important role in the spatiotemporal distribution of earthquakes in interplate seismogenic zones.

The 2016 M7.8 Kaikōura (New Zealand) earthquake struck the east coast of the northern South Island, resulting in strong ground shaking and large surface fault slip. Since the earthquake was well recorded by a local strong-motion seismic network, near-fault data may provide direct measurements of dynamic parameters associated with the fault-weakening process. Here we estimate a proxy for slip-weakening distance Dc′′, defined as double the fault-parallel displacement at the time of peak ground velocity, from accelerograms recorded at a near-fault station. Three-component ground displacements were recovered from the double numerical integration of accelerograms, and the corresponding final displacements are validated against coseismic displacement from geodetic data. The estimated Dc′′ is 4.9 m at seismic station KEKS located ∼2.7 km from a segment of the Kekerengu fault where large surface fault slip (∼12 m) has been observed. The inferred Dc′′ is the largest value ever estimated from near-fault strong motion data, yet it appears to follow the scaling of Dc′′ with final slip for several large strike-slip earthquakes. The energy budget of the M7.8 Kaikōura earthquake inferred from the scaling of Dc′′ with final slip indicates that a large amount of energy was dissipated by on- and off-fault inelastic deformation during the propagation of the earthquake rupture, resulting in a slower average rupture speed ( ≲2.0 km/s).

On April 20, 2013, an M s 7.0 earthquake struck Lushan County in Sichuan Province, China, and caused serious damage to the source region. We investigated the rupture process of the Ms7.0 Lushan earthquake by jointly inverting waveforms of teleseismic P waveforms and local strong motion records as well as static GPS observations. The inverted results indicate that the rupture of this earthquake was dominated by the failure of an asperity with a triangular shape and that the main shock was dominated by thrust slip. The earthquake released a total seismic moment of 1.01×1019 Nm, with 92% of it being released during the first 11 s. The rupture had an average slip of 0.9 m and produced an average stress drop of 1.8 MPa. Compared with our previous work that was based mainly on a unique dataset, this joint inversion result is more consistent with field observations and the distribution of aftershock zones.

Rupture history of the 2016 Mw 7.0 Kumamoto earthquake is constrained by using the waveforms of strong motion observations, teleseismic broadband body waves, and long-period surface waves. Its fault geometry is modeled with Hinagu (orienting 205° and dipping 73°) and Futagawa (orienting 235° and dipping 60°), two segments. The result reconciles the difference between moment tensor solutions and the surface fault trace. It reveals a complex rupture process that initiated on the Hinagu segment in dextral motion, propagated northeastward unilaterally, and after 15 s ceased near Aso volcano with normal fault motion. The average slip, rise time, and slip rate are 1.8 m, 2.0 s, and 1.2 m/s, respectively. The rupture broke through an ~30° fault intersection without notable delay, which can be a result of dynamic “unclamping.” The northeast boundary of the largest asperity might mark the bottom of the seismogenic zone, which becomes shallower gradually near Aso volcano.

The M w 7.8 Ecuador earthquake on 16 April 2016 is the sixth earthquake larger than M w 7 to rupture the subduction megathrust between the Nazca and South American plates since the M w 8.8 Colombia–Ecuador earthquake in 1906. We use Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) images from Sentinel‐1A to determine coseismic surface displacements associated with this earthquake. The interferograms exhibit a relatively simple pattern of deformation, with maximum displacements of 0.7 and 0.3 m on the descending and ascending images, respectively. We invert the interferograms for both rupture geometry and slip distribution in the earthquake. We find that the data are best described by slip on a fault dipping 17° to the east and that these InSAR data cannot uniquely constrain the strike. The maximum inferred slip is just over 2.5 m at about 20 km depth, with the main slip in the depth range of about 10–25 km. The geodetic moment of our preferred slip model is 7.15×10 20 N·m, equivalent to M w 7.87. Our results suggest that there is little, if any, partitioning of the oblique plate convergence. The 2016 Ecuador earthquake is coincident with the location of the 1942 M w 7.8 earthquake, with both earthquakes most likely rupturing an asperity that also failed in the 1906 M w 8.8 earthquake.

The July 3rd, 2015 Pishan, China Mw 6.4 earthquake occurred within the Hetian fold belt, a frontal thrust region between the Northwestern Tibetan Plateau and the Tarim basin. We investigate the fault geometry and the rupture process of the Pishan earthquake based on joint inversion of teleseismic body waves and InSAR measurements. Our results show that the top of the fault that ruptured in the Pishan earthquake is buried 5 ± 2 km beneath the surface and that the earthquake ruptured only a segment of a deeply-seated detachment lying under the Hetian fold belt. Our inferred coseismic slip model shows two slip asperities, located in the depth range of about 7–9 km and 10–11 km. Additionally, we resolve a slip deficit region between the slip asperities, which might indicate friction heterogeneity on the fault plane. The earthquake ruptured for ∼15 s, releasing a total seismic moment of 4.7 × 10 18 N m. We also show that the latest Pishan earthquake caused positive Coulomb stress changes on back thrust faults, potentially decreasing the time to the next earthquake on those faults. Based on our Pishan coseismic slip model, along with both the trend of the anticline system and the pattern of coseismic deformation, we envision an ongoing east-west extensional growth of the anticlines in the Western Kunlun frontal thrust region in addition to the northern underthrusting of the Northwestern Tibetan Plateau below the Tarim basin.

The Mw7.8 Gorkha Earthquake struck Nepal and ruptured the boundary between the Indian and Eurasian plates. We conducted 2D Pg-wave tomography to clarify the seismogenic structure and try to understand causal mechanisms for this large earthquake, using the aftershock data recorded by 15 broadband seismic stations located near the China-Nepal border. Our high-resolution results show that coseismic slip area of the main shock is consistent with the high P-wave velocity anomaly, and the region of maximum slip has a larger area with higher velocity than the region of initial slip, possibly resulting in the dominant low-frequency radiation of energy observed after the dominant high-frequency radiation of energy in the source rupture process. The boundary between these regions of contrasting high and low seismic velocity anomalies suggests a potential crustal tearing at the southern end of the Tangra Yum Co Rift, possibly resulting from different thrust speeds in the Greater Himalaya.

Two oceanic plates (the Pacific (PA) and Philippine Sea (PH)) subduct beneath the land plate and they forms deeper (PH-PA) and shallower (land-PH) plate boundaries beneath Kanto. Remarkably enhanced seismicity was observed in the densely populated area after the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake which cannot simply be explained by the southern expansion of the postseismic slip of the earthquake. We examine interplate repeating earthquakes to constrain the relative plate motion across aseismically slipping faults. The repeater slip rates show creep rates in the deeper and shallower boundaries respectively increased to 2.4-6.6 times and 1.3-6.2 times the pre-Tohoku-oki rates. In addition, the repeater slip directions show no change larger than 4 degree in the deeper boundary. The interplate creep rates and slip directions suggest regional movements of both the two plates had accelerated. They probably caused the seismicity increase, frequent slow slips on the shallower boundary, and enhanced probability of larger earthquakes.

Using numerical modeling we show the emergence of cyclic slip behavior of faults from stress feedback through an idealized fault, its surrounding plates and far-field tectonic stress. The tectonic stress is exerted on the fault through a force applied along an idealized plate margin, acting on the fault, resulting from the interactions of viscous embedding and external plates. We find that, in such coupled system, the interaction of plates results into feedback with periodic deformation, slip along the fault and episodic plate margin motions. The viscosity of the embedding and loading plates primarily control the stress-loading time and hence the slip recurrence interval. For an Earth-like range of lithospheric viscosities, we derive a power-law with negative exponent, −0.99 to −0.5, scaling the recurrence period with loading-rate, providing an explanation for the observables from paleoseismology and geodesy. The feedback between single fault and far-field stress that arises from interactions of deforming plates provides a context to understand the earthquake cycle within continents, while reconciling the short-term seismic deformation to the long-term plate tectonics frame.

The relationship (scaling) between scalar moment, M0, and duration, T, potentially provides key constraints on the physics governing fault slip. The prevailing interpretation of M0-T observations proposes different scaling for fast (earthquakes) and slow (mostly aseismic) slip populations and thus fundamentally different driving mechanisms. We show that a single model of slip events within bounded slip zones may explain nearly all fast and slow slip M0-T observations, and both slip populations have a change in scaling, where the slip area growth changes from 2-D when too small to sense the boundaries to 1-D when large enough to be bounded. We present new fast and slow slip M0-T observations that sample the change in scaling in each population, which are consistent with our interpretation. We suggest that a continuous but bimodal distribution of slip modes exists and M0-T observations alone may not imply a fundamental difference between fast and slow slip.

The 2015 Mw 7.1 earthquake on the Charlie-Gibbs transform fault along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge is the latest in a series of seven large earthquakes since 1923. We propose that these earthquakes form a pair of quasi-repeating sequences with the largest magnitudes and longest repeat times for such sequences observed to date. We model teleseismic body waves and find that the 2015 earthquake ruptured a distinct segment of the transform from the previous 1998 earthquake. The two events display similarities to earthquakes in 1974 and 1967, respectively. We observe large oceanic transform earthquakes to exhibit characteristic slip behavior, initiating with small slip near the ridge, and propagating unilaterally to significant slip asperities nearer the center of the transform. These slip distributions combined with apparent segmentation support multimode slip behavior with fault slip accommodated both seismically during large earthquakes and aseismically in between.

The Mw8.4 Illapel earthquake occurred on 16 September was the largest global event in 2015. This earthquake was not unexpected because the hypocenter was located in a seismic gap of the Peru-Chile subduction zone. However, the source model derived from 3-D spectral-element inversion of teleseismic waves reveals a distinct two-stage rupture process with completely different slip characteristics as a composite megathrust event. The two stages were temporally separated. Rupture in the first stage, with a moment magnitude of Mw8.32, built up energetically from the deeper locked zone and propagated in the updip direction toward the trench. Subsequently, the rupture of the second stage, with a magnitude of Mw8.08, mainly occurred in the shallow subduction zone with atypical repeating slip behavior. The unique spatial-temporal rupture evolution presented in this source model is key to further in-depth studies of earthquake physics and source dynamics in subduction systems.

Earthquake slip distributions are asymmetric along strike, but the reasons for the asymmetry are unknown. We address this question by establishing empirical relations between earthquake slip profiles and fault properties. We analyze the slip distributions of 27 large continental earthquakes in the context of available information on their causative faults, in particular on the directions of their long-term lengthening. We find that the largest slips during each earthquake systematically occurred on that half of the ruptured fault sections most distant from the long-term fault propagating tips, i.e., on the most mature half of the broken fault sections. Meanwhile, slip decreased linearly over most of the rupture length in the direction of long-term fault propagation, i.e., of decreasing structural maturity along strike. We suggest that this earthquake slip asymmetry is governed by along-strike changes in fault properties, including fault zone compliance and fault strength, induced by the evolution of off-fault damage, fault segmentation, and fault planarity with increasing structural maturity. We also find higher rupture speeds in more mature rupture sections, consistent with predicted effects of low-velocity damage zones on rupture dynamics. Since the direction(s) of long-term fault propagation can be determined from geological evidence, it might be possible to anticipate in which direction earthquake slip, once nucleated, may increase, accelerate, and possibly lead to a large earthquake. Our results could thus contribute to earthquake hazard assessment and Earthquake Early Warning.

Between 2013 June and 2015 January, 35 earthquakes with local magnitude M L ranging from 1.1 to 4.2 occurred in Nograd county, Hungary. This earthquake sequence represents above average seismic activity in the region and is the first one that was recorded by a significant number of three-component digital seismographs in the county. Using a Bayesian multiple-event location algorithm, we have estimated the hypocenters of 30 earthquakes with M L ≥1.5. The events occurred in two small regions of a few squared kilometers: one to the east of Ersekvadkert and the other at Iliny. The uncertainty of the epicenters is about 1.5–1.7 km in the E-W direction and 1.8–2.1 km in the N-S direction at the 95 % confidence level. The estimated event depths are confined to the upper 3 km of the crust. We have successfully estimated the full moment tensors of 4 M w ≥3.6 earthquakes using a probabilistic waveform inversion procedure. The non-double-couple components of the retrieved moment tensor solutions are statistically insignificant. The negligible amount of the isotropic component implies the tectonic nature of the investigated events. All of the analyzed earthquakes have strike-slip mechanism with either right-lateral slip on an approximately N-S striking or left-lateral movement on a roughly E-W striking nodal plane. The orientations of the obtained focal mechanisms are in good agreement with the main stress pattern published for the epicentral region. Both the P and T principal axes are horizontal, and the P axis is oriented along a NE-SW direction.

We developed a new method to classify the faulting types of small earthquakes using interevent waveform similarity and applied it to earthquakes in the northeast Japan subduction zone. In the method, we used separate time windows for P and S waves and established a relationship between waveform similarity and differences in focal mechanisms from event pairs whose focal mechanisms we know. Then we applied the relationship to many pairs of such focal-mechanism-known events (5607 from the moment tensor catalogue and 3623 events from the interplate repeating earthquakes catalogue) and focal-mechanism-unknown events for the period from 1984 to 2013. As a result, 8984 earthquakes were newly classified into interplate (N = 5401), noninterplate thrust (N = 631), normal (N = 1070), and strike-slip faulting earthquakes (N = 165). From the new data set, which doubles the number of mechanism types, we confirmed that there have been almost no interplate earthquakes in the area of large coseismic slip of the Tohoku-oki earthquake since that event. We also saw that this trend continued until at least the end of 2013, suggesting a nearly complete stress release and slow interplate stress recovery. The abundant interplate aftershocks also indicate the precise spatial extent of postsesimic slip, which is usually difficult to obtain from land-based geodetic data. The postseismic slip also suggests stress concentration at the asperities of the 1968 Tokachi-oki (M7.9) and 1994 Sanriku-oki (M7.6) earthquakes. The present-day faulting types offshore Tohoku correlated well with the static-stress change from the Tohoku-oki earthquake, suggesting a stress state change during the earthquake cycle of megathrust earthquakes.

The complete surface deformation of 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel, Chile earthquake is obtained using SAR interferograms obtained for descending and ascending Sentinel-1 orbits. We find that the Illapel event is predominantly thrust, as expected for an earthquake on the interface between the Nazca and South America plates, with a slight right-lateral strike slip component. The maximum thrust-slip and right-lateral strike slip reach 8.3 and 1.5 m, respectively, both located at a depth of 8 km, northwest to the epicenter. The total estimated seismic moment is 3.28 × 1021 N.m, corresponding to a moment magnitude Mw 8.27. In our model, the rupture breaks all the way up to the sea-floor at the trench, which is consistent with the destructive tsunami following the earthquake. We also find the slip distribution correlates closely with previous estimates of interseismic locking distribution. We argue that positive coulomb stress changes caused by the Illapel earthquake may favor earthquakes on the extensional faults in this area. Finally, based on our inferred coseismic slip model and coulomb stress calculation, we envision that the subduction interface that last slipped in the 1922 Mw 8.4 Vallenar earthquake might be near the upper end of its seismic quiescence, and the earthquake potential in this region is urgent.

A major interplate earthquake occurred on September 16th, 2015, near Illapel, central Chile. This event generated a tsunami of moderate height, however, one which caused significant near field damage. In this study, we model the tsunami produced by some rapid and preliminary fault models with the potential to be calculated within tens of minutes of the event origin time. We simulate tsunami signals from two different heterogeneous slip models, a homogeneous source based on parameters from the global CMT Project, and furthermore we used plate coupling data from GPS observations to construct a heterogeneous fault based on a priori knowledge of the subduction zone. We compare the simulated signals with the observed tsunami at tide gauges located along the Chilean coast and at offshore DART buoys. For this event, concerning rapid response, the homogeneous source and coupling model represent the tsunami at least as well as the heterogeneous sources. We suggest that the initial heterogeneous fault models could be better constrained with continuous GPS measurements in the rupture area, and additionally DART records directly in front of the rupture area, to improve the tsunami simulation based on quickly calculated models for near coastal areas. Additionally, in terms of tsunami modeling, the source estimated from prior plate coupling information in this case is representative of the event that later occurs; placing further importance on the need to monitor subduction zones with GPS.

On 16 September 2015, an Mw 8.3 earthquake struck middle Chile due to the subduction of the Nazca plate beneath the South America plate. This earthquake is the consequence of 72 years of strain accumulation in the region since the 1943 M 8.3 event. In this study, we apply the compressive sensing method (CS) to invert for the spatiotemporal distribution of the coseismic radiation at different frequencies of this event. The results show clear frequency-dependent feature of earthquake rupture with low-frequency (LF) radiation located in the updip region while high-frequency (HF) radiation concentrated in the downdip region of the megathrust. We also compare the CS results with three coseismic slip models as well as the stress drop distributions inferred from these slip models. The comparison confirms our understanding of coseismic radiation that energy sources are mostly located in the margin of large coseismic slip regions. Furthermore, we find that the LF radiation sources are mainly within the stress-decreasing (releasing) regions while the HF radiation sources are mainly located in the stress-increasing (loading) regions due to rupturing of relatively large asperities nearby (stress decreasing and releasing). These results help to better understand the physics of the rupture process during megathrust earthquakes. Moreover, our results do not show radiation sources south of the epicenter, suggesting that the subducting Juan Fernandez Ridge probably stopped the rupture of this earthquake toward the south.

We use coseismic offsets, derived from continuous GPS measurements at six nearby sites, due to the twin Varzaghan-Ahar earthquakes (northwest Iran) of 11 August 2012 (Mw 6.4 and 6.3) to constrain slip distribution on the ruptures of two earthquakes. We assume that slip during the two earthquakes occurred on conjugate faults. Majority of the slip occurred during the first earthquake which involved dextral slip on the east west trending vertical plane. The earthquake involved slip at shallow depth which reached up to ∼0.9 m at the surface, consistent with the evidence of surface rupture and the observed offsets. During the second earthquake oblique slip occurred on a north–south rupture having steep dip towards east and extending towards north from the eastern edge of the first earthquake. Maximum slip of ∼0.4 m occurred at depth of ∼6–8 km. Derived moment magnitude of the first earthquake (6.45) from our analysis is consistent with the reported moment magnitude, while that of the second earthquake (6.1) is slightly underestimated from our analysis.

Earthquakes in subduction zones rupture the plate boundary fault in discrete segments. One factor that may control this segmentation is topography on the downgoing plate, although it is controversial whether this is by weakening or strengthening of the fault. We use multichannel seismic and gravity data to map the top of the downgoing oceanic crust offshore central Sumatra, Indonesia. Our survey spans a complex segment boundary zone between the southern termination of the M w = 8.7, A.D. 2005 Simeulue-Nias earthquake, and the northern termination of a major 1797 earthquake that was partly filled by an M w = 7.7 event in 1935. We identify an isolated 3 km basement high at the northern edge of this zone, close to the 2005 slip termination. The high probably originated at the Wharton fossil ridge, and is almost aseismic in both local and global data sets, suggesting that while the region around it may be weakened by fracturing and fluids, the basement high locally strengthens the plate boundary, stopping rupture propagation.

The 2014 M w 7.9 Rat Islands intermediate-depth (∼107 km) earthquake is studied using seismic observations at teleseismic distances. The nodal plane with a steep-dip angle (87°) and a strike of 308° inferred from the Global CMT solution is selected as the causative fault plane because of the consistency with the distribution of the aftershocks relocated using the Joint Hypocenter Determination method. Its slip history is constrained using broadband P and SH waveforms and long-period (3–6 mHz) seismic waves in vertical and transverse components. The rupture process associated with this plane shows a rupture propagating at ∼2 km/s. The rupture essentially breaks one large slip patch (peak slip amplitude of 3.5 m) located 30 km west of the hypocenter. The size of this slip patch extends from 80 to 140 km depth, which would be the largest depth extent of earthquake slip ever documented. We show that this earthquake breaks the entire cold core of the subducting slab defined by the depth of the 600–650 °C isotherm. In addition, the lateral extent of the rupture appears to be bounded by the heterogeneities of subducting slab. Our results further indicate that, along this segment of Aleutian Arc, the intermediate-depth earthquakes might contribute to the westward transporting motion of Rat block. Lastly, the slip distribution of this earthquake as well as that of two other well studied M w > 7.5 intermediate-depth earthquakes suggests that the coldest portion of the subducting slab, outlined by the double Wadati–Benioff zone, is seismic during large intermediate-depth earthquakes. Such a result is important for estimating the seismic hazard of future large intermediate-depth earthquakes.

A decadal-scale deformation transient preceding the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan, earthquake was reported from continuous GPS data and interpreted as accelerating aseismic slip on the Japan Trench megathrust. Given the unprecedented nature of this transient, independent confirmation of accelerating slip is required. Here we show that changes in the recurrence intervals of repeating earthquakes on the Japan Trench megathrust in the period 1996 to 2011 are consistent with accelerating slip preceding the Tohoku-oki earthquake. All sequences of repeating earthquakes with statistically significant trends in recurrence interval (at 95% confidence) offshore south central Tohoku occurred at an accelerating rate. Furthermore, estimates of the magnitude of slip acceleration from repeating earthquakes are consistent with the completely independent geodetic estimates. From a joint inversion of the GPS and seismicity data, we infer that a substantial portion of the megathrust experienced accelerating slip, partly surrounding the eventual rupture zone of the Mw 9 earthquake.

Field investigations reveal that the Mj 6.8 (Mw 6.2) Nagano (Japan) earthquake of 22 November 2014 produced a 9.3-km-long co-seismic surface rupture zone. The slip occurred on the pre-existing active Kamishiro Fault, which developed along the Itoigawa–Shizuoka tectonic line, and is inferred as the boundary between the Eurasian and North American plates. The surface-rupturing earthquake produced dominant thrusting and subordinate strike-slip displacement. Structures that developed during the co-seismic surface rupture include thrust faults, fault scarps, en-echelon tension cracks, folding structures such as mole tracks and flexural folds, and sand-boils. The surface displacements measured in the field range from several centimeters to 1.5 m in the vertical (typically, 0.4–1 m), accompanied by a strike-slip component that reached 0.6 m along NNE trending ruptures. These observations indicate a thrust-dominated displacement along the seismogenic fault. Our results show that (i) the pre-existing Kamishiro Fault, which strikes NNE–SSW, controlled the spatial distribution of co-seismic surface ruptures and displacements; and (ii) the style and magnitude of thrust displacements indicate that the present-day shortening strain on the Eurasian–North American plate boundary in the study area is released mainly by seismic thrust displacements along the active Kamishiro Fault.

A major interplate earthquake occurred on April 1, 2014, in northern Chile with magnitude $${M}_w = 8.1$$ , which ruptured part of the 1877 seismic gap segment. Following the earthquake, a tsunami was observed having a moderate impact in the nearest coastal areas. Here we propagate a tsunami generated by two different slip model distributions, as well as a homogeneous one, and compare them using observed tide gauge data from four stations along the Chilean coast, in order to estimate which best represents the measured tsunami waveforms. The heterogeneous models reproduce the general shape and amplitude of the observed data, while the tsunami signal modeled by the homogeneous slip overestimates the amplitude and underestimates the arrival time. This study shows that it is possible to accurately model near-field tsunami observations in Chile, using high-resolution bathymetry, and that they are better represented by heterogeneous sources.

We found very low frequency earthquakes (VLFEs) at a shallow subduction zone close to the Japan Trench off the Pacific coast of Tohoku, Japan. Centroid moment tensor solutions of VLFEs showed reverse fault mechanisms with a compression axis in the east-west direction. A cross-correlation analysis of seismograms with template events between 2005 and 2013 revealed three major VLFE clusters and their temporal evolution. A VLFE cluster in the central off-Tohoku region located in the large slip area of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake was detectable only before the Tohoku earthquake. However, VLFEs in the northern and southern off-Tohoku regions at the rim of the large slip area were activated after the Tohoku earthquake. The change in the activity may reflect the stress redistribution by the coseismic and/or afterslip processes of the Tohoku earthquake.

On 22 April 1997 the largest earthquake recorded in the Trinidad-Tobago segment of the Caribbean-South American plate boundary zone (Mw 6.7) ruptured a shallow (~9 km), ENE striking (~250° azimuth), shallowly dipping (~28°) dextral-normal fault ~10 km south of Tobago. In this study, we describe this earthquake and related foreshock and aftershock seismicity, derive coseismic offsets using GPS data, and model the fault plane and magnitude of slip for this earthquake. Coseismic slip estimated at our episodic GPS sites indicates movement of Tobago 135 ± 6 to 68 ± 6 mm NNE and subsidence of 7 ± 9 to 0 mm. This earthquake was anomalous and is of interest because (1) its large component of normal slip and ENE strike are unexpected given the active E-W dextral shearing across the Caribbean-South American plate boundary zone, (2) it ruptured a normal fault plane with a low (~28°) dip angle, and (3) it reactivated and inverted the preexisting Tobago terrrane-South America ocean-continent (thrust) boundary that formed during early Tertiary oblique plate convergence.

The co-seismic displacement and stress fields of the Nepal Ms8.1 earthquake on 25 April 2015 were calculated using the finite element method. Curvature of the Earth was included in our model to get accurate results in the far field. We adopted the PREM earth model and two different slip models in the calculation. The Nepal Ms8.1 earthquake is a typical low-angle thrust event, of which the co-seismic deformation is dominated by horizontal components. The co-seismic displacement is mainly in north-south direction and concentrates near Kathmandu. East-west and vertical components are relatively small. The USGS slip model gave a maximum displacement around 3.5 m, while that of the CEA slip model is up to 1.2 m. The range of influence is about 300 km within which co-seismic displacement is over 0.1 m. Coulomb failure stress change caused by the earthquake is positive in the vicinity of Nepal and its maximum is about 0.1 MPa. The Ms8.1 earthquake could affect China's Tibet region, especially in areas of the Yarlung Zangbo Jiang and the Lhasa block, where Coulomb failure stress changes are positive and the magnitude is up to 10 kPa for N-S trending normal faults, which implies possibilities of triggering new major earthquakes.

We study three recent earthquakes of different types in the Guerrero seismic gap zone with M ≥ 6.5: the 15 July 1996 Guerrero near-coast interplate earthquake (M w = 6.6), the 18 April 2002 Guerrero near-trench interplate earthquake (M w = 6.7), and the 11 December 2011 Guerrero normal-faulting inslab earthquake (M w = 6.5). We compute the slip distributions, estimate source parameters, and model strong ground motions with the finite-fault stochastic method. We use different methods to estimate source parameters in order to observe differences in stress drop and radiated seismic energy among these events. The similarity in seismic magnitude gives us the opportunity to compare our results for the three different types of earthquake and interpret them in terms of the tectonic environments and seismic hazard. We analyze the peak ground accelerations and their relation with the stress drop. We simulated ground motions with the stochastic method. The model parameters are validated against recordings and a stress drop of 3, 15, and 70 MPa is estimated for the near-trench interplate, near-coast interplate, and normal-faulting inslab events, respectively. The near-trench interplate event has the lowest radiated seismic energy and the lowest rupture velocity. This is reflected in the energy to moment ratio of 2.17 × 10−6, 4.52 × 10−6, and 3.96 × 10−6 for the near-trench interplate, near-coast interplate, and normal-faulting inslab events, respectively. We define asperities using two different criteria: (1) based on average displacement and (2) maximum displacement. The asperity area for the near-coast and near-trench interplate events represents about 23 and 24–25 % of the total rupture area, which in the case of the normal-faulting inslab event, it is only 19 and 23 % based on average and maximum displacement, respectively.

Slow earthquakes are important constituents of the seismic cycle and are involved in the stress transfer between the viscously slipping portion of the plate interface and the seismogenic zone. Their occurrence is likely associated with the near-lithostatic pore pressure in the slow earthquake source region, where fluids might modify fault friction and whose presence is indicated by high ratios of compressional (P)–wave velocity to shear (S)–wave velocity observed at the interface between the subducting plate and the overlying crust. Here we compare two slow earthquake phenomena observed in the Guerrero region of the Mexican subduction zone: low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) and a slow-slip event (SSE) recorded by GPS. We observe variations of the LFE occurrence rates over month-long time scales during a large SSE that we interpret as a manifestation of transient changes in the fault shear strength. We argue that these transient changes are caused by a pore pressure fluctuation that migrates updip along the subduction interface. This mechanism suggests that fluids do not only passively weaken the plate interface but also play an active role in slow earthquake source regions.

Complexities in the rupture process during a megathrust earthquake can be attributed to the combined effect of inhomogeneous distribution of stress accumulated during the interseismic period and inhomogeneous rheology of the seismogenic contact. We modeled the free-air gravity field of the southern Central Chile convergent margin along five 2-D profiles that cross the patch of highest slip during the Chilean 2010 megathrust earthquake in order to analyze variability in the density and shape of the continental wedge and its relationship with seismotectonics. We also analyzed the bathymetry to derive the long-term interplate friction coefficient. The results show that the high slip patch during the Maule earthquake corresponds to a segment of the margin characterized by (1) low densities in the continental wedge, (2) low vertical loading over the inter-plate contact, (3) a well-developed shelf basin and, (4) low taper angles consistent with a low effective basal friction coefficient. We interpret the correlation between these parameters in terms of the total potential energy change during the earthquake and conclude that if the normal stress or frictional coefficient are low, then a large slip does not necessarily imply a large amount of coseismic work. Heterogeneities in density of the continental basement can therefore be related to complexities in the pattern of coseismic slip and in the aftershock distribution. Locally, a subducted seamount or seaward spur of high-density continental crust may be present near the high slip patch.

On October 14, 2011, an earthquake with the magnitude Mw = 6.0 occurred 15 km northwest of the town of Skovorodino in East Siberia. This earthquake aroused interest among geophysicists. In this paper, we present some results on the prior seismicity in the region, which are based on the macroseismic and instrumental data. The assessment of the seismic regime immediately before the main shock and the analysis of the aftershock sequence rely on the data provided by the field network of the Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The network was in operation from the end of July 2011 to January 2012. The analysis of the entire dataset suggests that the Skovorodino earthquake was outstanding in a vast region: only seismic events with low magnitudes (at most 4) occurred in the epicentral zone of this earthquake and its nearest neighborhood. The positions of the source of the main shock and the hypocenters of the after-shocks (more than 1300 events) are determined. The aftershock sequence is anomalous—it lacks sufficiently strong seismic events (M ≥ 3.5). The spatiotemporal distribution of the aftershocks shows two clusters of the epicenters to the west and east of the epicentral zone. These clusters drastically differ in their parameters, indicating that the source has a complex structure. Generally, the source can be understood as a shear displacement on the subvertical fault plane trending approximately along the latitude. The size of the source is 17 × 17 km; the average slip is 63 cm, which is at least 30% larger than the characteristic values for the earthquakes with M = 6.0.

We examined the temporal variation of the size of repeating earthquakes related to the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake (M9.0) in the northeastern Japan subduction zone for the period from July 1984 to the end of 2011. The repeaters (M2.5–6.1) show postseismic magnitude increases for most sequences located in the area of large postseismic slip at the downdip extension of the M9 source region. The magnitudes of the first events after the M9 earthquake increased by an average of about 0.3 for sequences having three or more earthquakes over the 9 months following it. We also examined the slip area in detail for Kamaishi repeaters whose magnitudes had been M4.9 ± 0.2 but which increased by about 1 after the M9 earthquake. Waveform modeling shows that the slip area for the post-M9 Kamaishi earthquakes overlaps with that before the Tohoku-oki earthquake but enlarged by about 6 times. Until the occurrence time of the last event (September 2011) in the analysis period, the rupture area remained larger than before but appeared to shrink over time. The enlargement of the rupture area suggests that an aseismic-to-seismic transition occurred in the region surrounding the pre-M9 repeaters and is most likely related to fast loading of the repeaters due to rapid postseismic slip estimated to have occurred in the area. The existence of conditionally stable regions around the repeating earthquakes and/or patches slightly larger than the earthquake nucleation sizes may explain such behavior. The temporal change of loading rate is an important factor in determining earthquake size in this case.

In this study, joint inversions of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and Global Position System (GPS) measurements are used to investigate the source parameters of four Mw > 5 events of the 2016–2017 Central Italy earthquake sequence. The results show that the four events are all associated with a normal fault striking northwest–southeast and dipping southwest. The observations, in all cases, are consistent with slip on a rupture plane, with strike in the range of 157° to 164° and dip in the range of 39° to 44° that penetrates the uppermost crust to a depth of 0 to 8 km. The primary characteristics of these four events are that the 24 August 2016 Mw 6.2 Amatrice earthquake had pronounced heterogeneity of the slip distribution marked by two main slip patches, the 26 October 2016 Mw 6.1 Visso earthquake had a concentrated slip at 3–6 km, and the predominant slip of the 30 October 2016 Mw 6.6 Norcia earthquake occurred on the fault with a peak magnitude of 2.5 m at a depth of 0–6 km, suggesting that the rupture may have reached the surface, and the 18 January 2017 Mw 5.7 Campotosto earthquake had a large area of sliding at depth 3–9 km. The positive static stress changes on the fault planes of the latter three events demonstrate that the 24 August 2016 Amatrice earthquake may have triggered a cascading failure of earthquakes along the complex normal fault system in Central Italy.

Tectonic ground deformations in the near-fault region cause major damage to buildings and infrastructure. To characterize ground deformation demands on structures, a novel stochastic approach to evaluate the ground deformations of tectonic origin is developed by combining probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters, synthetic earthquake slip models, and Okada equations for calculating the deformation field due to a fault movement. The output of the method is the probability distribution of ground deformations at a single location or differential ground deformations between two locations. The derived probabilistic models can be employed as input to advanced structural models and analyses. The method is illustrated for the 16 April 2016 Kumamoto earthquake in Japan. By comparing simulated ground deformations with observed deformations at multiple sites, a set of refined source models is first derived and then used to investigate the detailed earthquake characteristics of the event and to develop probability distributions of tectonic ground deformations at target sites.

Accepted for publication in Earth and Planetary Science Letters. 2017; The September 16, 2015 Mw8.3 Illapel Earthquake occurred on a locked segment of the South American subduction in Chile. This segment ruptured during comparable size earthquakes in the past, in 1880 and 1943, suggesting a somehow regular pattern of characteristic Mw 8+ earthquakes occurring every 60 to 80 years. This recurrence is in agreement with the accumulation of elastic deformation in the upper plate due to the Nazca-South America subduction at a constant rate of 6.5 cm/year, leading to a deficit of ~4.5 meters of slip to be released every 70 years. Previous studies consistently imaged the distribution of co-seismic slip along the fault based on geodetic, seismological and far field tsunami data and all described a significant amount of shallow slip resulting in a large tsunami. In addition, some models highlighted an apparent mismatch between the modeled rake of slip and the direction of plate convergence, suggesting the buildup of large strike-slip deficit. Some of these important questions remain open. Is shallow slip really well resolved and substantiated ? Is the apparent principal direction of slip during the earthquake really required by the geodetic data ? Here, using a comprehensive analysis of continuous GPS sites (including high rate and static displacements) and new survey data from acquired over more than 50 pre-existing sites, complemented with InSAR data, we show that the 2015 rupture overlaps very well the 1943 rupture, with the absence of significant slip south of 32°S and north of 30.2°S (peninsula Lingua de Vaca). Despite the wealth of geodetic data, the shallowest part of the subduction interface remains poorly resolved. We also show that the rake of the earthquake is fully compatible with the oblique plate convergence direction (rather than perpendicular to the trench), meaning that no subsequent trench-parallel motion is required by the data. We propose that the large Low Coupling Zone (LCZ) at the latitude of La Serena revealed by present day coupling distribution is stable over at least two seismic cycles. Inside the coupled area, peak coseismic slip is located precisely offshore the highest coastal topography and elevated terraces, adding weight to a potential correlation between the seismic cycle and long term permanent deformation. Finally, we show that early post-seismic after-slip occurs mostly down-dip of co-seismic asperity(ies), extending north and south of the 2015 rupture area.

The recent M w = 7.8 Kaikoura (New Zealand) earthquake involved a remarkably complex rupture propagating in an intricate network of faults at the transition between the Alpine fault in the South Island and the Kermadec-Tonga subduction zone. We investigate the main features of this complicated rupture process using long-period seismological observations. Apparent Rayleigh-wave moment-rate functions reveal a clear northeastward directivity with an unusually weak rupture initiation during 60 s followed by a major 20 s burst of moment rate. To further explore the rupture process, we perform a Bayesian exploration of multiple point-source parameters in a 3-D Earth model. The results show that the rupture initiated as a small strike-slip rupture and propagated to the northeast, triggering large slip on both strike-slip and thrust faults. The Kaikoura earthquake is thus a rare instance in which slip on intraplate faults trigger extensive interplate thrust faulting. This clearly outlines the importance of accounting for secondary faults when assessing seismic and tsunami hazard in subduction zones.

Motivated by the fact that temporal earthquake aperiodicity was observed off Kamaishi just after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, we performed numerical simulations of chain reactions due to the postseismic slip of large earthquakes by applying rate- and state-dependent friction laws. If the repeater is composed of single asperity, our results show that, (i) a mixture of partial and whole rupturing of a single asperity can explain some of the observed variability in timing and size of the repeating earthquakes off Kamaishi; (ii) the partial rupturing can be reproduced with moderate frictional instability with the aging-law and not the slip or Nagata laws; (iii) the perturbation of the activated earthquake hypocenters observed mostly in the ESE-WNW direction may reflect the fact that the large postseismic slip of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake propagated from ESE to WNW off Kamaishi; (iv) the observed region of repeating earthquake quiescence may reflect the strong plate coupling of megathrust earthquakes.

The northern Vanuatu (formerly New Hebrides) subduction zone (11°S to 14°S) has experienced large shallow thrust earthquakes with Mw > 7 in 1966 (MS 7.9, 7.3), 1980 (Mw 7.5, 7.7), 1997 (Mw 7.7), 2009 (Mw 7.7, 7.8, 7.4), and 2013 (Mw 8.0). We analyze seismic data from the latter four earthquake sequences to quantify the rupture processes of these large earthquakes. The 7 October 2009 earthquakes occurred in close spatial proximity over about 1 h in the same region as the July 1980 doublet. Both sequences activated widespread seismicity along the northern Vanuatu subduction zone. The focal mechanisms indicate interplate thrusting, but there are differences in waveforms that establish that the events are not exact repeats. With an epicenter near the 1980 and 2009 events, the 1997 earthquake appears to have been a shallow intraslab rupture below the megathrust, with strong southward directivity favoring a steeply dipping plane. Some triggered interplate thrusting events occurred as part of this sequence. The 1966 doublet ruptured north of the 1980 and 2009 events and also produced widespread aftershock activity. The 2013 earthquake rupture propagated southward from the northern corner of the trench with shallow slip that generated a substantial tsunami. The repeated occurrence of large earthquake doublets along the northern Vanuatu subduction zone is remarkable considering the doublets likely involved overlapping, yet different combinations of asperities. The frequent occurrence of large doublet events and rapid aftershock expansion in this region indicate the presence of small, irregularly spaced asperities along the plate interface.

Fault slip may involve slow aseismic creep and fast seismic rupture, radiating seismic waves manifested as earthquakes. These two complementary behaviors accommodate the long-term plate convergence of major subduction zones and are attributed to fault frictional properties. It is conventionally assumed that zones capable of seismic rupture on the subduction megathrust are confined to between about 10 to 50 km depth; however, the actual spatiotemporal distribution of fault mechanical parameters remains elusive for most subduction zones. The 2011 Tohoku Mw 9.0 earthquake ruptured with > 50 m slip up to the trench, thus challenging this conventional assumption, and provides a unique opportunity to probe the mechanical properties of the Japan subduction zone. Drawing on the inferred distribution of coseismic and postseismic slip, it has recently been suggested that portions of the megathrust are capable of switching between seismic and aseismic behavior. Kinematic models of the coseismic rupture and 15-month postseismic afterslip of this event suggest that the coseismic rupture triggered widespread frictional afterslip with equivalent moment magnitude of 8.17–8.53, in addition to viscoelastic relaxation in the underlying mantle. The identified linear relation between modeled afterslip, slip inferred from repeating earthquakes on the plate interface, and the cumulative number of aftershocks within 15 km distance of the subduction thrust suggests that most aftershocks are a direct result of afterslip. We constrain heterogeneous rate-state friction parameters of the subduction thrust from the computed coseismic stress changes and afterslip response. Our results indicate a variable pattern along dip and strike, characterizing areas down-dip and south of the main rupture zone as having velocity-strengthening properties. In agreement with seismic tomographic models of plate boundary elastic properties and geologic evidence for previous M > 8.5 megathrust earthquakes on this section of the plate boundary, we suggest that the obtained pattern of the frictional properties is characteristic of subducted material and thus persistent in time and space.