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Performing a reliable stability analysis of a landslide slope requires a good understanding of the internal geometries and an accurate characterisation of the geotechnical parameters of the identified strata. Geotechnical models are commonly based on geomorphological data combined with direct and intrusive geotechnical investigations. However, the existence of numerous empirical correlations between seismic parameters (e.g., S-wave velocity) and geotechnical parameters in the literature has made it possible to investigate areas that are difficult to reach with direct instrumentation. These correlations are often overlooked even though they enable a reduction in investigation costs and time. By means of geophysical tests, it is in fact possible to estimate the N-SPT value and derive the friction angle from results obtained from environmental seismic noise measurements. Despite the empirical character and a certain level of uncertainty derived from the estimation of geotechnical parameters, these are particularly useful in the preliminary stages of an emergency, when straight data are not available and on all those soils where other direct in situ tests are not reliable. These correlations were successfully applied to the Theilly landslide (Western Alps, Italy), where the geotechnical model was obtained by integrating the results of a multi-parameter geophysical survey (H/V seismic noise and ground-penetrating radar) with stratigraphic and geomorphological observations, digital terrain model and field survey data. The analysis of the triggering conditions of the landslide was conducted by means of hydrological–geotechnical modelling, evaluating the behaviour of the slope under different rainfall scenarios and considering (or not) the stabilisation interventions present on the slope. The results of the filtration analyses for all events showed a top-down saturation mechanism, which led to the formation of a saturated face with a maximum thickness of 5 m. Stability analyses conducted for the same events showed the development of a shallow landslide in the first few metres of saturated soil. The modelling results are compatible with the actual evolution of the phenomenon and allow us to understand the triggering mechanism, providing models to support future interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The analysis of slope stability over large areas is a demanding task for several reasons, such as the need for extensive datasets, the uncertainty of collected data, the difficulty of accounting for site-specific factors, and the considerable computation time required due to the size of investigated areas, which can pose major barriers, particularly in civil protection contexts where rapid analysis and forecasts are essential. However, as the identification of zones of higher failure probability is very useful for stakeholders and decision-makers, the scientific community has attempted to improve capabilities to provide physically based assessments. This study combined a transient seepage analysis of an unsaturated-saturated condition with an infinite slope stability model and probabilistic analysis through the use of a high-computing capacity parallelized platform. Both short- and long-term analyses were performed for a study area, and roles of evapotranspiration, vegetation interception, and the root increment of soil strength were considered. A model was first calibrated based on hourly rainfall data recorded over a 4-day event (December 14–17, 1999) causing destructive landslides to compare the results of model simulations to actual landslide events. Then, the calibrated model was applied for a long-term simulation where daily rainfall data recorded over a 4-year period (January 1, 2005–December 31, 2008) were considered to study the behavior of the area in response to a long period of rainfall. The calibration shows that the model can correctly identify higher failure probability within the time range of the observed landslides as well as the extents and locations of zones computed as the most prone ones. The long-term analysis allowed for the identification of a number of days (9) when the slope factor of safety was lower than 1.2 over a significant number of cells. In all of these cases, zones approaching slope instability were concentrated in specific sectors and catchments of the study area. In addition, some subbasins were found to be the most recurrently prone to possible slope instability. Interestingly, the application of the adopted methodology provided clear indications of both weekly and seasonal fluctuations of overall slope stability conditions. Limitations of the present study and future developments are finally discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Regional distributed stability modelling integrating the root reinforcement effect. • Long simulations considering regional hourly rainfall of one-month periods. • Root cohesion regional changes by species distribution and Monte Carlo simulations. • Minor influence of the root reinforcement when soil conditions are near saturation. We present a regionally distributed slope stability modelling for shallow landslides considering the effect of plant roots. Our modelling is based on the physically-based distributed slope stability model, HIRESSS (HIgh REsolution Slope Stability Simulator). Thanks to the parallel structure, our code is well suited to perform fast assessment of slope stability over large spatial and temporal scales. The reinforcing effect of plant roots is implemented into the code by considering the local plant species and their spatial variations. The probabilistic nature of the stability of slopes is considered by performing Monte Carlo simulations. Our model is applied to two study areas in Italy. The numerical results are compared with the collected data from these areas. The model predictions show that the effect of plant root is sensitive to rainfall intensity and duration. Our model prediction shows only minor influence of plant root on slope stability particularly for the soil conditions near saturation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Distributed physically based slope stability models usually provide outputs representing, on a pixel basis, the probability of failure of each cell. This kind of result, although scientifically sound, from an operational point of view has several limitations. First, the procedure of validation lacks standards. As instance, it is not straightforward to decide above which percentage of failure probability a pixel (or larger spatial units) should be considered unstable. Second, the validation procedure is a time-consuming task, usually requiring a long series of GIS operations to overlap landslide inventories and model outputs to extract statistically significant performance metrics. Finally, if model outputs are conceived to be used in the operational management of landslide hazard (e.g., early warning procedures), the pixeled probabilistic output is difficult to handle and a synthesis to characterize the hazard scenario over larger spatial units is usually required to issue warnings aimed at specific operational procedures. In this work, a tool is presented that automates the validation procedure for physically based distributed probabilistic slope stability models and translates the pixeled outputs in warnings released over larger spatial units like small watersheds. The tool is named DTVT (double-threshold validation tool) because it defines a warning criterion on the basis of two threshold values—the probability of failure above which a pixel should be considered stable (failure probability threshold, FPT) and the percentage of unstable pixels needed in each watershed to consider the hazard level widespread enough to justify the issuing of an alert (instability diffusion threshold, IDT). A series of GIS operations were organized in a model builder to reaggregate the raw instability maps from pixels to watershed; draw the warning maps; compare them with an existing landslide inventory; build a contingency matrix counting true positives, true negatives, false positive, and false negatives; and draw in a map the results of the validation. The DTVT tool was tested in an alert zone of the Aosta Valley (northern Italy) to investigate the high sensitivity of the results to the values selected for the two thresholds. Moreover, among 24 different configurations tested, we performed a quantitative comparison to identify which criterion (in the case of our study, there was an 85% or higher failure probability in 5% or more of the pixels of a watershed) produces the most reliable validation results, thus appearing as the most promising candidate to be used to issue alerts during civil protection warning activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of vegetation on mechanical and hydrological soil behavior represents a significant factor to be considered in shallow landslides modelling. Among the multiple effects exerted by vegetation, root reinforcement is widely recognized as one of the most relevant for slope stability. Lately, the literature has been greatly enriched by novel research on this phenomenon. To investigate which aspects have been most treated, which results have been obtained and which aspects require further attention, we reviewed papers published during the period of 2015–2020 dealing with root reinforcement. This paper—after introducing main effects of vegetation on slope stability, recalling studies of reference—provides a synthesis of the main contributions to the subtopics: (i) approaches for estimating root reinforcement distribution at a regional scale; (ii) new slope stability models, including root reinforcement and (iii) the influence of particular plant species, forest management, forest structure, wildfires and soil moisture gradient on root reinforcement. Including root reinforcement in slope stability analysis has resulted a topic receiving growing attention, particularly in Europe; in addition, research interests are also emerging in Asia. Despite recent advances, including root reinforcement into regional models still represents a research challenge, because of its high spatial and temporal variability: only a few applications are reported about areas of hundreds of square kilometers. The most promising and necessary future research directions include the study of soil moisture gradient and wildfire controls on the root strength, as these aspects have not been fully integrated into slope stability modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Information regarding the shape and depth of a landslide sliding surface (LSS) is fundamental for the estimation of the volume of the unstable masses, which in turn is of primary importance for the assessment of landslide magnitude and risk scenarios as well as in refining stability analyses. To assess an LSS is not an easy task and is generally time-consuming and expensive. In this work, a method existing in the literature, based on the inclination of movement vectors along a cross-section to estimate the depth and geometry LSSs, is used for the first time while exploiting satellite interferometric data. Given the advent of satellite interferometric data and the related increasing availability of spatially dense and accurate measurements, we test the effectiveness of this method—here named the vector inclination method (VIM)—to four case landslides located in Italy characterized by different types of movement, kinematics and volume. Geotechnical and geophysical information of the LSS is used to validate the method. Our results show that each of the presented cases provides useful insight into the validity of VIM using satellite interferometric data. The main advantages of VIM applied to satellite interferometry are that it enables estimation of the LSS with a theoretical worldwide coverage, as well as with no need for onsite instrumentation or even direct access; however, a good density of measurement points in both ascending and descending geometry is necessary. The combined use of VIM and traditional investigations can provide a more accurate LSS model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation plays a crucial role in slope stability affecting soil behaviour through many hydrological and mechanical processes. At the catchment scale, the hydrological effects of interception, suction, evapotranspiration and infiltration strongly affect runoff processes, whilst at the local scale the mechanical effect of root reinforcement is the leading factor for slope stability. Root systems of plants increase the shear strength of soils through a combined action by the large and the small roots: large woody roots can anchor the superficial soil layers to more stable substrates crossing potential planes of weakness; small roots strengthen the bounds with the soil particles increasing the overall cohesion of the matrix soil-roots. The belowground conditions that determine the root reinforcement are extremely variable, so that field measurements of the additional cohesion provided by roots can vary by an order of magnitude even for plants of same species and age. The extreme variability of this parameter coupled to the practical difficulties in assessing its spatial variations, especially for large areas, represent a significant limit in including proper values of root cohesion in slope stability models.In this study we analysed the effect of the roots cohesion on slope stability simulations obtained using the HIRESSS model. HIRESSS is a physically based distributed slope stability simulator developed to provide results in near real time and for large areas. For the latest version, the simulator was modified to insert the root reinforcement among the geotechnical parameters that considers to compute the factor of safety in probabilistic terms. A comparison of the results between two different simulations was performed: considering a large area (900 km2) and 30 days of precipitations, in one case the root cohesion was set to zero for all the area, in the other case different values of the parameter based on the plant species was instead inserted in the model.To build a map of the root cohesion for the study area, the following solution was adopted to solve the problem of the evaluation of the parameter: the distribution of plant species in the area was obtained from CORINE land cover 2012 4th level map, then a value of root cohesion and a range of variation was defined for each plant species based on the most recent literature in this field, finally, to reproduce the natural variability, the root reinforcement was treated as variable in Monte Carlo simulations, as well as the other geotechnical parameters.The results of the simulations for the study area were processed and analysed in order to evaluate the effect of root cohesion on failure probabilities. The results were also analysed considering landslide actual events to assess the contribution of the parameter to the HIRESSS forecasting capabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]