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When plasma-beta greater than 1 then the gas pressure dominates over the magnetic pressure. This ratio as a function along the coronal magnetic field lines varies from beta greater than 1 in the photosphere at the base of the field lines, to beta much less than 1 in the mid-corona, to beta greater than 1 in the upper corona. Almost all magnetic field extrapolations do not or cannot take into account the full range of beta. They essentially assume beta much less than 1, since the full boundary conditions do not exist in the beta greater than 1 regions. We use a basic parametric representation of the magnetic field lines such that the field lines can be manipulated to match linear features in the EUV and SXR coronal images in a least squares sense. This research employs free-form deformation mathematics to generate the associated coronal magnetic field. In our research program, the complex magnetic field topology uses Parametric Transformation Analysis (PTA) which is a new and innovative method to describe the coronal fields that we are developing. In this technique the field lines can be viewed as being embedded in a plastic medium, the frozen-in-field-line concept. As the medium is deformed the field lines are similarly deformed. However the advantage of the PTA method is that the field line movement represents a transformation of one magnetic field solution into another magnetic field solution. When fully implemented, this method will allow the resulting magnetic field solution to fully match the magnetic field lines with EUV/SXR coronal loops by minimizing the differences in direction and dispersion of a collection of PTA magnetic field lines and observed field lines. The derived magnetic field will then allow beta greater than 1 regions to be included, the electric currents to be calculated, and the Lorentz force to be determined. The advantage of this technique is that the solution is: (1) independent of the upper and side boundary conditions, (2) allows non-vanishing magnetic forces, and (3) provides a global magnetic field solution, which contains high- and low-beta regimes and maximizes the similarity between the field lines structure and all the coronal images of the region. The coronal image analysis is crucial to the investigation and for the first time these images can be exploited to derive the coronal magnetic field in a well-posed mathematical formulation. This program is an outgrowth of an investigation in which an extrapolated potential field was required to be "inflated" in order to have the field lines match the Yohkoh/SXT images. The field lines were radially stretched resulting in a better match to the coronal loops of an active region. The PTA method of radial and non-radial deformations of field lines to provide a match to the EUV/SXR images will be presented.

We derived two quantitative measures of an active region's global nonpotentiality from the region's vector magnetogram, 1) the net current (I(sub N)), and 2) the length of strong-shear, strong-field main neutral line (Lss), and used these two measures in a pilot study of the CME productivity of 4 active regions. We compared the global nonpotentiality measures to the active regions' CME productivity determined from GOES and Yohkoh/SXT observations. We found that two of the active regions were highly globally nonpotential and were CME productive, while the other two active regions had little global nonpotentiality and produced no CMEs. At the Fall 2000 AGU, we reported on an expanded study (12 active regions and 17 magnetograms) in which we evaluated four quantitative global measures of an active region's magnetic field and compared these measures with the CME productivity. The four global measures (all derived from MSFC vector magnetograms) included our two previous measures (I(sub N) and L(sub ss)) as well as two new ones, the total magnetic flux (PHI) (a measure of an active region's size), and the normalized twist (alpha (bar)= muIN/PHI). We found that the three quantitative measures of global nonpotentiality (I(sub N), L(sub ss), alpha (bar)) were all well correlated (greater than 99% confidence level) with an active region's CME productivity within plus or minus 2 days of the day of the magnetogram. We will now report on our findings of how good our quantitative measures are as predictors of active-region CME productivity, using only CMEs that occurred after the magnetogram. We report the preliminary skill test of these quantitative measures as predictors. We compare the CME prediction success of our quantitative measures to the CME prediction success based on an active region's past CME productivity. We examine the cases of the handful of false positive and false negatives to look for improvements to our predictors. This work is funded by NSF through the Space Weather Program and by NASA through the Solar Physics Supporting Research and Technology Program.

Previously, from analysis of SOHO coronal images in combination with Kitt Peak magnetograms, we found that the quiet corona is the sum of two components: the large-scale corona and the coronal network. The large-scale corona consists of all coronal-temperature (T approximately 10(exp 6) K) structures larger than supergranules (greater than approximately 30,000 kilometers). The coronal network (1) consists of all coronal-temperature structures smaller than supergranules, (2) is rooted in and loosely traces the photospheric magnetic network, (3) has its brightest features seated on polarity dividing lines (neutral lines) in the network magnetic flux, and (4) produces only about 5% of the total coronal emission in quiet regions. The heating of the coronal network is apparently magnetic in origin. Here, from analysis of EIT coronal images of quiet regions in combination with magnetograms of the same quiet regions from SOHO/MDI and from Kitt Peak, we examine the other 95% of the quiet corona and its relation to the underlying magnetic network. We find: (1) Dividing the large-scale corona into its bright and dim halves divides the area into bright "continents" and dark "oceans" having spans of 2-4 supergranules. (2) These patterns are also present in the photospheric magnetograms: the network is stronger under the bright half and weaker under the dim half. (3) The radiation from the large-scale corona increases roughly as the cube root of the magnetic flux content of the underlying magnetic network. In contrast, the coronal radiation from an active region increases roughly linearly with the magnetic flux content of the active region. We assume, as is widely held, that nearly all of the large-scale corona is magnetically rooted in the network. Our results suggest that either the coronal heating in quiet regions has a large non-magnetic component, or, if the heating is predominantly produced via the magnetic field, the mechanism is significantly different than in active regions.

Over the past several years, we have reported results from studies that have compared the magnetic structure and heating of the transition region and corona (both in active regions and in the quiet Sun) by combining X-ray and EUV images from Yohkoh and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) with photospheric magnetograms from ground-based observatories. Our findings have led us to the hypothesis that most heating throughout the corona is driven from near and below the base of the corona by eruptive microflares occurring in compact low-lying "core magnetic fields (i.e., fields rooted along and closely enveloping polarity inversion lines in the photospheric magnetic flux). We now extend these studies, comparing sequences of UV images from Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE) with longitudinal magnetograms from Kitt Peak and vector magnetograms from MUSIC. These comparisons confirm the previous results regarding the importance of core-field activity to active region heating. Activity in fields associated with satellite polarity inclusions and/or magnetically sheared configurations is especially prominent. This work is funded by NASA's Office of Space Science through the Sun-Earth Connection Guest Investigator Program and the Solar Physics Supporting Research and Technology Program.

We investigate the height of shock formation in coroner plumes for slow magnetosonic waves. The models take into account plume geometric spreading, heat conduction and radiative damping. The wave parameters as well as the spreading functions of the plumes and the base magnetic field strengths are given by empirical constraints mostly from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (SOHO/UVCS). Our models show that shock formation occurs at low coronal heights, i.e., within 1.3 solar radius, depending on the model parameters. The shock formation is calculated using the well-established wave breaking condition given by the intersection of C+ characteristics in the space-time plane. Our models show that shock heating by slow magnetosonic waves is expected to be relevant at most heights in solar coronal plumes, although slow magnetosonic waves are most likely not a solely operating energy supply mechanism.

Microstreams and pressure balance structures in fast solar wind were more easily detected at Ulysses at 2.2 AU over the poles than at Helios at 0.3 AU. This is because solar rotation brings sources of fast solar wind beneath sources of slow solar wind at a rate that depends on latitude, for the same size features. Dynamic interaction between the fast and slow wind tends to mix the flows and make features more difficult to detect with increasing distance from the Sun. A given sized feature takes proportionally longer to pass a longitude when it is at 80 degrees latitude than when it is at the equator. At solar maximum, Ulysses will mainly be sampling solar wind coming from above streamers and from near streamers. The data will provide information on fine structure at the tops of streamers - the stalks - and on the source of slow solar wind. The visibility of the boundaries between fast and slow wind and of the stalk will increase with increasing latitude. I will present quantitative calculations of the visibility of various sized features, with various differences in flow speed, at the location of Ulysses when it is over the south (in 2000) and north (in 2001) polar regions of the Sun.

We examine ionospheric outflows in the high altitude magnetospheric polar cap during the POLAR satellite's apogee on April 19, 1996 using the Thermal Ion Dynamics Experiment (TIDE) instrument. The elevated levels of O(+) observed in this pass may be due to the geophysical conditions during and prior to the apogee pass. In addition to the high abundance of O(+) relative to H(+), several other aspects of this data are noteworthy. We observe relationships between the density, velocity, and temperature which appear to be associated with perpendicular heating and the mirror force, rather than adiabatic expansion. The H(+) outflow is at a fairly constant flux which is consistent with being source limited by charge exchange at lower altitudes. Local centrifugal acceleration in the polar cap is found to be insufficient to account for the main variations we observe in the outflow velocity. The solar wind speed is high during this pass approximately 700 kilometers per second, and there are Alfve'n waves present in the solar wind such that the solar wind speed and IMF Bx are correlated. In this pass both the H(+) and O(+) outflow velocities correlate with both the solar wind speed and IMF fluctuations. Polar cap magnetometer and Hydra electron data show the same long period wave structure as found in the solar wind and polar cap ion outflow. In addition, the polar cap Poynting flux along the magnetic field direction correlates well with the H(+) temperature (R=0.84). We conclude that the solar wind can drive polar cap ion outflow particularly during polar squalls by setting up a parallel drop that is tens of eV which then causes the ion outflow velocity of O(+) and H(+), the electrons, and magnetic perturbations to vary in a similar fashion.

A surprisingly large concentration of radioactive 7-Be was observed in the upper atmosphere at altitudes above 320 km on the LDEF satellite that was recovered in January 1990. We report on follow-up experiments on Russian spacecraft at altitudes of 167 to 370 km during the period of 1996 to 1999, specifically designed to measure 7-Be concentrations in low earth orbit. Our data show a significant correlation between the 7-Be concentration and the solar energetic proton fluence at Earth, but not with the overall solar activity. During periods of low solar proton fluence, the concentration is correlated with the galactic cosmic ray fluence. This indicates that spallation of atmospheric N by both solar energetic particles and cosmic rays is the primary source of 7-Be in the ionosphere.

Using data from the Extreme Ultraviolet Telescope (EIT) on SOHO and the Soft X-ray Telescope (SXT) on Yohkoh, we examine a series of morphologically homologous solar flares occurring in NOAA AR 8210 over May 1-2, 1998. An emerging flux region (EFR) impacted against a sunspot to the west and next to a coronal hole to the east is the source of the repeated flaring. An SXT sigmoid parallels the EFR's neutral line at the site of the initial flaring in soft X-rays. In EIT, each flaring episode begins with the formation of a crinkle pattern external to the EFR. These EIT crinkles move out from, and then in toward, the EFR with velocities approximately 20 km/s. A shrinking and expansion of the width of the coronal hole coincides with the crinkle activity, and generation and evolution of a postflare loop system begins near the. time of crinkle formation. Using a schematic based on magnetograms of the region, we suggest that these observations are consistent with the standard reconnection-based model for solar eruptions, but modified by the presence of the additional magnetic fields of the sunspot and coronal hole. In the schematic, internal reconnection begins inside of the EFR-associated fields, unleashing a flare, postflare loops, and a CME. External reconnection, first occurring between the escaping CME and the coronal hole field, and second occurring between fields formed as a result of the first external reconnection, results in the EIT crinkles and changes in the coronal hole boundary. By the end of the second external reconnection, the initial setup is reinstated; thus the sequence can repeat, resulting in morphologically homologous eruptions. Our inferred magnetic topology is similar to that suggested in the "breakout model" of eruptions [Antiochos, 1998], although we cannot determine if our eruptions are released primarily by the breakout mechanism (external reconnection) or, alternatively, are released primarily by the internal reconnection.

Identifying Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) precursors in the solar corona would be an important step in space weather forecasting, as well as a vital key to understanding the physics of CMEs. Twisted magnetic field structures are suspected of being the source of at least some CMEs. These features can appear sigmoid (S or inverse-S) shaped in soft X-ray (SXR) images. We review recent observations of these structures and their relation to CMEs, using soft X-ray (SXR) data from the Soft X-ray Telescope (SXT) on the Yohkoh satellite, and EUV data from the EUV Imaging Telescope (EIT) on the SOHO satellite. These observations indicate that the pre-eruption sigmoid patterns are more prominent in SXRs than in EUV, and that sigmoid precursors are present in over 50% of CMEs. These findings are important for CME research, and may potentially be a major component to space weather forecasting. So far, however, the studies have been subject to restrictions that will have to be relaxed before sigmoid morphology can be used as a reliable predictive tool. Moreover, some CMEs do not display a SXR sigmoid structure prior to eruption, and some others show no prominent SXR signature of any kind before or during eruption.

Three different types of ribosome crystals were grown by the vapor diffusion technique in hanging drops as described in (1,2). The ribosome is a large asymmetric RNA-protein complex (2.3 million Da), which is protein syntheses machinery of the cell. In this poster we would like to discuss the features of ribosome crystallization. Ribosomes were purified from the thermophilic bacteria Thermus thermophilus by centrifugation (3). Three types of crystals (needle, flat tetragonal and tetragonal-like pyramid) can be grown from the same solution; furthermore, in the same drop using 10-15% 2-methyl-2,4- pentanediol as a precipitant. The crystals appeared in 5-48 hours. The crystals were stable and can co-exist in solution over long period of time. The kinetics of appearance of different crystal forms was different: first the needle crystals were grown, then the tetragonal, and finally the tetragonal pyramids. Later studies of the process of ribosome crystal growth depending on supersaturation showed that low supersaturation results in the appearance of tetragonal plates or tetragonal-like pyramids. An electron microscopy study, together with computer modeling, has shown that crystals of different forms have a high probability of having the same unit cell parameters. According to these experiments the following conclusion can be dranvn: the level of supersaturation of the macromolecule in a crystallizing solution is one of the major factors for forming three-dimensional crystals convenient for X-rays diffraction analysis. From the same macromolecule solution, crystals of different forms can be grown at approximately the same conditions by varying the concentration of macromolecule in the solution. Ion-macromolecule and water-macromolecule interactions, apparently, play the main role in the formation of the unit cell of the crystals.

Since their discovery over 100 years ago, there have been many suggestions for the origin and development of solar spicules. Because the velocities of spicules are comparable to the sound and Alfven speeds of the low chromosphere, linear theory cannot fully describe them. Consequently, detailed tests of theoretical ideas had to await the development of computing power that only became available during the 1970s. This work reviews theories for spicules and spicule-like features over approximately the past 25 years, with an emphasis on the models based on nonlinear numerical simulations. These models have given us physical insight into wave propagation in the solar atmosphere, and have helped elucidate how such waves, and associated shock waves, may be capable of creating motions and structures on magnetic flux tubes in the lower solar atmosphere. So far, however, it has been difficult to reproduce the most- commonly -quoted parameters for spicules with these models, using what appears to be the most suitable input parameters. A key impediment to developing satisfactory models has been the lack of reliable observational information, which is a consequence of the small angular size and transient lifetime of spicules. I close with a list of key observational questions to be addressed with space-based satellites, such as the currently operating TRACE satellite, and especially the upcoming Solar-B mission. Answers to these questions will help determine which, if any, of the current models correctly explains spicules.

We present detailed three-dimensional simulations of active regions resulting from numerical models of sunspots coupled to coronal excitation and emission. The models incorporate a fully three-dimensional magnetoconvection calculation, described in a poster by Hurlburt and Rucklidge, potential field extrapolations from the sunspot model boundary conditions, steady-state coronal loops powered by the convective motions at the surface, EUV and X-ray instrument response functions, and a full voxel rendering. The result is a simulated dynamical active region in three dimensions which enables us to explore coronal heating and its relationship to the dynamics of the photosphere and convection zone. The 3D rendering of the resulting EUV emission allows us to investigate the expected coronal signatures of the EUVI instruments on board the twin STEREO spacecraft to be launched in 2004. The hybrid model developed here also provides a simulation testbed for the development of future STEREO image reconstruction tools: an integral component in the access to STEREO data by the solar physics community.

Forecasts for the amplitude of cycle 23 that were reported prior to the start of, the cycle covered a full range of, values from very small to very large. A forecast reached by the consensus of a panel of forecasters convened at the time of minimum in 1996 [Joselyn et al., 1997] suggested that this cycle would be much larger than average with the smoothed International Sunspot Number reaching a maximum of 160 +/- 30 in the middle of the year 2000. A recent survey of solar cycle prediction techniques [Hathaway et al., 1999] found that the two most reliable techniques for forecasting the cycle prior to its start give similar predictions for this cycle's maximum -- 154 +/- 26 and 153 +/- 33. Curve-fitting and regression techniques can be used with some confidence now that cycle 23 is well underway. These techniques indicate a more modest sunspot cycle with a maximum of 112 + 10 -- only slightly larger than average. The current (May 2000) prediction using the combined predictions from both precursors and curve-fitting gives a cycle amplitude of about 135 +/- 20. This is within the errors given by the consensus and the precursor technique predictions but very close to their lower bounds. Inspection of the characteristics of cycle 23 thus far indicates that in some respects this cycle is an outlier but in other respects it is quite normal.

We investigate the height of shock formation in coronal plumes for slow magnetosonic waves. The models take into account plume geometric spreading, heat conduction, and radiative damping. The wave parameters as well as the spreading functions of the plumes and the base magnetic field strengths are given by empirical constraints mostly from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/ Ultraviolet Coronograph Spectrometer (UVCS), Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT), Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI), and Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Our models show that shock formation occurs at relatively low coronal heights, typically within 1.2 RsuN, depending on the model parameters. The shock formation is calculated using the well-established wave breaking criterion given by the intersection of C+ characteristics in the space-time plane. Our models show that shock heating by slow magnetosonic waves is expected to be relevant at most heights in solar coronal plumes, although such waves are probably not the main energy supply mechanism.

We present observations of the magnetic field configuration and its transformation in six solar eruptive events that show good agreement with the Hirayama-Shibata model for eruptive flares. The observations arc X-ray images from the Yohkoh Soft X-ray Telescope (SXT) and magnetograms from Kitt Peak National Solar Observatory, interpreted together with the 1-8 Angstrom X-ray flux observed by GOES. The observations show: 1. Each event is a magnetic explosion that occurs in an initially closed magnetic bipole in which the core field is sheared and twisted in the shape of a sigmoid, having an oppositely curved elbow on each end. The arms of the opposite elbows are sheared past each other so that they overlap and are crossed low above the neutral line in the middle of the bipole. 2. Although four of the explosions arc ejective (blow open the bipole) and two are confined (arc arrested within the closed bipole), all six begin the same way. In the SXT iniages, the explosion begins with brightening and expansion of the two elbows together with the appearance of short bright sheared loops low over the neutral line under the crossed arms and, rising up from the crossed arms, long strands connecting the far ends of the elbows. 3. All six events arc single-bipole events in that during the onset and early development of the explosion they show no evidence for reconnection between the exploding bipole and any surrounding magnetic fields. We conclude that in each of our events the magnetic explosion was unleashed by runaway tether-cutting via implosive/explosive rcconnection in the middle of the sigmoid, as in the Hirayama-Shibata model. The similarity of the onsets of the two confined explosions to the onsets of the four ejective explosions and their agreement with the model indicate that runaway reconnection inside a sheared core field can begin whether or not the overlying fields (the envelope field and contiguous fields that press down on the envelope) allow the explosion to be ejective. We consider the implications ofthis for the unleashing of magnetic explosions in field configurations composed of to or more impacted bipoles.

Ulysses has shown that fast solar wind is extremely smooth, with a variance of less than 5%, in contrast to slow wind with a variance of approximately 30%. Now UVCS has produced the surprising result that the flow speed within coronal holes, the source of fast wind, is not at all smooth. Specifically, Giordano et al. (ApJ, v531, L79-L82, 2000) report that at 1.7 R(sub SUN) the interplume flow speed is typically more than twice the plume flow speed. Other less direct evidence supports this same result, with speeds from less than 300 to over 1000 km/s reported at approximately 5 R(sub SUN). This presents the paradox of how strongly differing plume and interplume flow speeds can exist near the Sun and be absent far from the Sun. The only answer is that plume and interplume material or momentum must be strongly mixed and that the mixing must occur mainly inside 0.3 AU to be consistent with Helios observations of smooth fast wind. Pressure balance structures (PBSs) and He abundance anomalies (Reisenfeld, et al., GRL, v26(13), 1805-1808, 1999) have been identified as interplanetary remnants of plumes, implying momentum mixing is the dominant coronal process. One possible source for plume/interplume momentum mixing is MHD Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) shear instabilities occurring on the velocity shear interfaces. The velocity shear is a source of free energy and KH fluctuations could, through nonlinear cascade, provide the forcing required for the plasma oscillations (Cranmer, ApJ, v532, 1197-1208, 2000) reported to exist in coronal holes. The physical properties in coronal holes are now sufficiently well known that we can show plume/interplume shear interfaces become unstable to the KH instability at 5 - 10 R(sub SUN). The KH dispersion relation can be used to analyze marginal stability, the most unstable wavelengths, and linear growth rates. Numerical simulations can be used to verify results from the linear analysis and study the nonlinear development of KH modes. Here we will describe the marginal stability criterion for the KH instability, how and where this condition is met in the corona, and the possible character of the resultant fluctuations.

In a previous pilot study of four predominantly bipolar active regions observed by the MSFC vector magnetograph in 1991-92, we found that two quantitative measures of the global nonpotentiality of an active region were promising predictors of whether the active region produced coronal mass ejections (CMES) during its rotation across the Sun. The two quantitative measures are 1) the length (L(sub ss)) of the segments along the active region's main neutral line on which the vector magnetic field is both strong and strongly sheared, and 2) the global net current (I(sub N) flowing up one side of the bipole and down the other. Two of the active regions had large measured global nonpotentiality (L(sub ss) approximately >10(exp 5) km and I(sub N) approximately >4x 10(exp 12) Amp) and produced three CMEs each. The other two active regions had much smaller measured global nonpotentiality and produced no CMES. We have now expanded our sample of active regions by a factor of 3 with active regions from 1991 to the present. We have calibrated the line-of-sight magnetic field by comparing it to the line-of-sight field measured by Kitt Peak and/or SOHO/MDI. We have resolved the 180 deg. ambiguity in the transverse field by using three different methods, and compared the resulting global net currents. We will compare the two measures of global nonpotentiality to each other and to the CME productivity of each active i-eolon in our expanded set. We will examine the extent to which these results from the expanded set confirm or modify the tentative rule for CME prediction that we found in our pilot study.