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The export of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) supplies the bottom cell of the global overturning circulation and plays a key role in regulating climate. This AABW outflow must cross, and is therefore mediated by, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Previous studies present widely varying conceptions of the role of the ACC in directing AABW across the Southern Ocean, suggesting either that AABW may be zonally recirculated by the ACC, or that AABW may flow northward within deep western boundary currents (DWBC) against bathymetry. In this study the authors investigate how the forcing and geometry of the ACC influences the transport and transformation of AABWusing a suite of process-oriented model simulations. The model exhibits a strong dependence on the elevation of bathymetry relative to AABWlayer thickness: higher meridional ridges suppress zonal AABWexchange, increase the strength of flow in the DWBC, and reduce the meridional variation in AABWdensity across the ACC. Furthermore, the transport and transformation vary with density within the AABW layer, with denser varieties of AABW being less efficiently transported between basins. These findings indicate that changes in the thickness of the AABW layer, for example, due to changes in Antarctic shelf processes, and tectonic changes in the sea floor shape may alter the pathways and transformation of AABW across the ACC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface winds around the Antarctic continent control coupled ocean‐ice processes that influence the climate system, including bottom water production, heat transport onto the continental shelf and sea ice coverage. However, few studies have examined projected changes in these winds, even though it would aid in the interpretation and understanding of the ocean's response to climate change. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and reanalysis data, we show a significant reduction in the near‐Antarctic surface winds throughout the historical period that continues until the end of the twenty‐first century, amounting to 23% and 7% for the easterly and southerly wind components respectively under the high emission scenario. The most intense weakening happens during the summer season. We find that the weakening is coherent with the trend toward a positive Southern Annular Mode and a reduction of the pole‐to‐coast meridional pressure gradient, which we term Antarctic Annular Index. Plain Language Summary: Surface winds over the ocean around the Antarctic continent influence several aspects of the oceanic circulation and sea ice in the region that become relevant in the context of climate change. For example, Antarctic coastal surface winds have been found to drive the warming experienced in some regions that subsequently triggers increased ice shelf melt. However, there is little understanding regarding how this wind regime is expected to change in the future, with most research focusing on the mid‐latitude westerlies. In this work, we use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models to quantify projected changes in these winds to the end of the twenty‐first century, hoping that it will aid in the interpretation of the ocean's response to climate change. Under the high emission scenario, we find a significant weakening of 23% for the easterly wind component and 7% for the meridional wind component. This weakening can be partly explained by a large‐scale pattern of change in sea level pressure that reflects in an increase of the atmospheric mode of variability known as the Southern Annular Mode, and a decrease of the pole‐to‐coast surface pressure gradient, which we term Antarctic Annular Index. Key Points: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models show a weakening of the near‐Antarctic surface winds during the period 1979–2015Future projections in CMIP6 models show that the weakening trend continues until the end of the twenty‐first centuryWeakened winds are associated with a more positive Southern Annular Mode and a reduction in the pole‐to‐coast meridional pressure gradient [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Southern Ocean has undergone significant climate-related changes over recent decades, including intensified westerly winds and increased radiative heating. The interplay between wind-driven cooling and radiative warming of the ocean is complex and remains unresolved. In this study, idealized wind and thermal perturbations are analyzed in a global ocean–sea ice model at two horizontal resolutions: nominally, 1° and 0.1°. The sea surface temperature (SST) response shows a clear transition from a wind-driven cooling phase to a warming phase. This warming transition is largely attributed to meridional and vertical Ekman heat advection, which are both sensitive to model resolution due to the model-dependent components of temperature gradients. At higher model resolution, due to a more accurate representation of near-surface vertical temperature inversion and upward Ekman heat advection around Antarctica, the anomalous SST warming is stronger and develops earlier. The mixed layer depth at midlatitudes initially increases due to a wind-driven increase in Ekman transport of cold dense surface water northward, but then decreases when the thermal forcing drives enhanced surface stratification; both responses are more sensitive at lower model resolution. With the wind intensification, the residual overturning circulation increases less in the 0.1° case because of the adequately resolved eddy compensation. Ocean heat subduction penetrates along more tilted isopycnals in the 1° case, but it orients to follow isopycnal layers in the 0.1° case. These findings have implications for understanding the ocean response to the combined effects of Southern Hemisphere westerly wind changes and anthropogenic warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Southern Ocean, strong eastward ocean jets interact with large topographic features, generating eddies that feed back onto the mean flow. Deep-reaching eddies interact with topography, where turbulent dissipation and generation of internal lee waves play an important role in the ocean's energy budget. However, eddy effects in the deep ocean are difficult to observe and poorly characterized. This study investigates the energy contained in eddies at depth, when an ocean jet encounters topography. This study uses a two-layer ocean model in which an imposed unstable jet encounters a topographic obstacle (either a seamount or a meridional ridge) in a configuration relevant to an Antarctic Circumpolar Current frontal jet. The authors find that the presence of topography increases the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) at depth but that the dominant processes generating this deep EKE depend on the shape and height of the obstacle as well as on the baroclinicity of the jet before it encounters topography. In cases with high topography, horizontal shear instability is the dominant source of deep EKE, while a flat bottom or a strongly sheared inflow leads to deep EKE being generated primarily through baroclinic instability. These results suggest that the deep EKE is set by an interplay between the inflowing jet properties and topography and imply that the response of deep EKE to changes in the Southern Ocean circulation is likely to vary across locations depending on the topography characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An overturning circulation, driven by prescribed buoyancy forcing, is used to set a zonal volume transport in a reentrant channel ocean model with three isopycnal layers. The channel is designed to represent the Southern Ocean such that the forced overturning resembles the lower limb of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC). The relative contributions of wind and buoyancy forcing to the zonal circulation are examined. It is found that the zonal volume transport is strongly dependent on the buoyancy forcing and that the eddy kinetic energy is primarily set by wind stress forcing. The zonal momentum budget integrated over each layer is considered in the buoyancy-forced, wind-forced, and combined forcing case. At equilibrium, sources and sinks of momentum are balanced, but the transient spinup reveals the source of momentum for the current. In the buoyancy-forced case, the forcing creates a baroclinic shear with westward flow in the lower layer, allowing topographic form stress and bottom friction to act as the initial sources of eastward momentum, with bottom friction acting over a longer time frame. In the wind-forced and combined forcing cases, the surface wind stress dominates the initial momentum budget, and the time to reach equilibration is shorter in the combined forcing simulation. These results imply that future changes in the rate of formation of Antarctic Bottom Water may alter the volume transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors study intrinsic variability in the position of jets in a β-plane channel ocean with simple topography using a quasigeostrophic numerical model. This study links the variability in jet position with abyssal anticyclones that form as a result of interaction of mesoscale eddies and subsurface topography, reminiscent of such flows as the Zapiola anticyclone. A simple dynamical framework explaining this behavior is developed. In this framework, this study shows that the topographic anticyclones form closed regions of homogenized yet time-varying potential vorticity. Neighboring topographic anticyclones are coupled by eddy fluxes. Interaction of a baroclinic jet with these two (or more) anticyclones can drive variability in local jet strength. Predictions of the dynamical framework are then compared with the results of the numerical model, and it is demonstrated that this model has merit in explaining the observed model variability. This study argues that this simple mode of variability has relevance for the ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The eddy field in the Southern Ocean offsets the impact of strengthening winds on the meridional overturning circulation and Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport. There is widespread belief that the sensitivities of the overturning and ACC transport are dynamically linked, with limitation of the ACC transport response implying limitation of the overturning response. Here, an idealized numerical model is employed to investigate the response of the large-scale circulation in the Southern Ocean to wind stress perturbations at eddy-permitting to eddy-resolving scales. Significant differences are observed between the sensitivities and the resolution dependence of the overturning and ACC transport, indicating that they are controlled by distinct dynamical mechanisms. The modeled overturning is significantly more sensitive to change than the ACC transport, with the possible implication that the Southern Ocean overturning may increase in response to future wind stress changes without measurable changes in the ACC transport. It is hypothesized that the dynamical distinction between the zonal and meridional transport sensitivities is derived from the depth dependence of the extent of cancellation between the Ekman and eddy-induced transports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An analytical model of the full-depth ocean stratification and meridional overturning circulation for an idealized Atlantic basin with a circumpolar channel is presented. The model explicitly describes the ocean response to both Southern Ocean winds and the global pattern and strength of prescribed surface buoyancy fluxes. The construction of three layers, defined by the two isopycnals of overturning extrema, allows the description of circulation and stratification in both the upper and abyssal ocean. The system is fully solved in the adiabatic limit to yield scales for the surface layer thickness, buoyancies of each layer, and overturning magnitudes. The analytical model also allows scaling of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport. The veracity of the three-layer framework and derived scales is confirmed by applying the analytical model to an idealized geometry, eddy-permitting ocean general circulation model. Consistent with previous results, the abyssal overturning is found to scale inversely with wind stress, whereas the North Atlantic overturning and surface-layer thickness scale linearly with wind stress. In terms of the prescribed surface buoyancy fluxes, increased negative fluxes (buoyancy removal) in the North Atlantic increase the North Atlantic overturning and surface-layer thickness, whereas increased positive fluxes in the middle and low latitudes lead to a decrease in both parameters. Increased negative surface buoyancy fluxes to the south of Drake Passage increase the abyssal overturning and reduce the abyssal buoyancy. The ACC transport scales to first order with the sum of the Ekman transport and the abyssal overturning and thus increases with both wind stress and southern surface buoyancy flux magnitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]