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Phytoplankton concentrations display strong temporal variability at different time scales. Recent advances in automated moorings enable detailed investigation of this variability. In this study, we analyzed phytoplankton fluctuations at four automated mooring stations in the North Sea, which measured phytoplankton abundance (chlorophyll) and several environmental variables at a temporal resolution of 12–30 min for two to nine years. The stations differed in tidal range, water depth and freshwater influence. This allowed comparison of the predictability and environmental drivers of phytoplankton variability across different time scales and geographical regions. We analyzed the time series using wavelet analysis, cross correlations and generalized additive models to quantify the response of chlorophyll fluorescence to various environmental variables (tidal and meteorological variables, salinity, suspended particulate matter, nitrate and sea surface temperature). Hour-to-hour and day-to-day fluctuations in chlorophyll fluorescence were substantial, and mainly driven by sinking and vertical mixing of phytoplankton cells, horizontal transport of different water masses, and non-photochemical quenching of the fluorescence signal. At the macro-tidal stations, these short-term phytoplankton fluctuations were strongly driven by the tides. Along the Dutch coast, variation in salinity associated with the freshwater influence of the river Rhine played an important role, while in the central North Sea variation in weather conditions was a major determinant of phytoplankton variability. At time scales of weeks to months, solar irradiance, nutrient conditions and thermal stratification were the dominant drivers of changes in chlorophyll concentrations. These results show that the dominant drivers of phytoplankton fluctuations differ across marine environments and time scales. Moreover, our findings show that phytoplankton variability on hourly to daily time scales should not be dismissed as environmental noise, but is related to vertical and horizontal particle transport driven by winds and tides. Quantification of these transport processes contributes to an improved predictability of marine phytoplankton concentrations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Phaeocystis blooms in the Southern Bight of the North Sea may cause damage to the aquatic ecosystem and to commercial mussel cultures at the entrance of the Oosterschelde estuary. In this paper the potential for early detection of Phaeocystis blooms in Dutch coastal waters is studied, using a combination of field data, satellite observations and hydrodynamic- and biological modelling. For the spring bloom period in the year 2003 MERIS chlorophyll-a maps, derived with the HYDROPT algorithm for coastal waters, were compared to in-situ measurements at stations off the coast in de Voordelta and the results of the GEM biogeochemical model. The analysis shows that the spatial and temporal variability in Phaeocystis abundance and total biomass (expressed by the Chl-a concentration) during spring is large. It is confirmed that blooms may develop off shore and show a tendency to accumulate within 10km from the coastline, giving rise to rapid biomass accumulation at the mouth of the multiple estuaries in the Voordelta. Based on the outcome of this study an early warning system is proposed that notifies local water managers and shellfish growers for potentially harmful Phaeocystis bloom formation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The set-up, application and validation of a generic ecological model (GEM) for estuaries and coastal waters is presented. This model is a comprehensive ecological model of the bottom of the foodweb, consisting of a set of modules, representing specific water quality processes and primary production that can be combined with any transport model to create a dedicated model for a specific ecosystem. GEM links different physical, chemical and ecological model components into one generic and flexible modelling tool that allows for variable sized, curvilinear grids to accommodate both the requirements for local accuracy while maintaining a relatively short model run-time. The GEM model describes the behaviour of nutrients, organic matter and primary producers in estuaries and coastal waters, incorporating dynamic process modules for dissolved oxygen, nutrients and phytoplankton. GEM integrates the best aspects of existing Dutch estuarine models that were mostly dedicated to only one type of ecosystem, geographic area or subset of processes. Particular strengths of GEM include its generic applicability and the integration and interaction of biological, chemical and physical processes into one predictive tool. The model offers flexibility in choosing which processes to include, and the ability to integrate results from different processes modelled simultaneously with different temporal resolutions. The generic applicability of the model is illustrated using a number of representative examples from case studies in which the GEM model was successfully applied. Validation of these examples was carried out using the ‘cost function’ to compare model results with field observations. The validation results demonstrated consistent accuracy of the GEM model for various key parameters in both spatial dimensions (horizontally and vertically) as well as temporal dimensions (seasonally and across years) for a variety of water systems without the need for major... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Physically based numerical modelling follows from the basic understanding of the underlying mechanisms and is often represented by a set of (partial differential) equations. It is one of the main approaches in population dynamics modelling. The emphasis of the model introduced in this paper is on the simulation of short-term spatial and temporal dynamics of harmful algal bloom (HAB) events. Total suspended matter (TSM) concentration is one of the dominant factors for harmful algal bloom (HAB) prediction in North Sea. However, the modelling of suspended matter contains a high degree of uncertainty in this area. Therefore, this research aims to achieve a better estimation for the short-term prediction of harmful algal bloom development in both space and time by using spatially distributed TSM retrieved from remotely sensed images as physically based model inputs. In order to supply complete spatially covered datasets for the physically based model instrument: generic ecological model (GEM), this research retrieves TSM information from MERIS images by means of proper estimation techniques including biharmonic splines and self-learning cellular automata. A better estimation of HAB spatial pattern development is achieved by adding spatially distributed TSM data as inputs to original GEM model, and it proved that chlorophyll-a concentration in this area is very sensitive to TSM concentration. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]