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Aim To forecast the potential effects of climate change in the Mediterranean Sea on the species richness and mean body size of coastal fish assemblages. Location The Mediterranean Sea. Methods Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we used species distribution modelling to project the potential distribution of 288 coastal fish species by the middle and end of the 21st century based on the IPCC A2 scenario implemented with the Mediterranean climatic model NEMOMED8. Results A mean rise of 1.4 °C was projected for the Mediterranean Sea by the middle of the 21st century and 2.8 °C by the end of the 21st century. Projections for the end of the century suggest that: (1) 54 species are expected to lose their climatically suitable habitat, (2) species richness was predicted to decrease across 70.4% of the continental shelf area, especially in the western Mediterranean Sea and several parts of the Aegean Sea, and (3) mean fish body size would increase over 74.8% of the continental shelf area. Small-bodied species that are not targeted by either commercial or recreational fleets presented, on average, the highest predicted decrease in geographic range size. Main conclusions Projected climate change in the Mediterranean Sea may have deleterious effects on coastal fish diversity, including a significant loss of climatically suitable habitat for endemic fish species. In addition, climate change may contribute to the loss of small and low trophic-level fishes, which may have ecosystem-wide impacts by reducing food supply to larger and higher trophic-level species. Fishing pressure is already selectively removing large-bodied species from marine ecosystems, and so fishing and climatic change might act in tandem to drive both direct and secondary extinctions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The FishMed database provides traits, phylogeny, current and projected species distribution of Mediterranean fishes, and associated sea surface temperature (SST) from the regional oceanic model NEMOMED8. Data for the current geographical distributions of 635 Mediterranean fish species were compiled from a published expert knowledge atlas of fishes of the northern Atlantic and the Mediterranean (FNAM) edited between 1984 and 1986 and from an updated exotic fish species list. Two future sets of projected species distributions were obtained for the middle and end of the 21st century by using an ensemble forecasting approach for 288 coastal Mediterranean fish species based on SST according to the IPPC/SRES A2 scenario implemented with the Mediterranean climatic model NEMOMED8. The functional part of the database encompasses 12 biological and ecological traits (maximal and common lengths, vertical distribution, habitat, migration type, mode of reproduction, sex shift, semelparity, diet type (larvae and adults), social behavior, species origin, and depth) for the 635 fish species. To build the phylogeny we inferred the timing and geographic origins of Mediterranean teleost species diversity using nucleotide sequences collected from GenBank including 62% ofMediterranean teleost species plus nine outgroups. Maximum likelihood Bayesian phylogenetic and dating analyses were calibrated using 20 fossil species. An additional 124 fish species were grafted onto the chronogram according to their taxonomic affinity to obtain a phylogenetic tree including 498 species. Finally we also present the associated SST data for the observed period (1961-1980) and for themiddle (2040-2059) and the end of the 21st century (2080-2099) obtained fromNEMOMED8 according to the IPCC A2 scenario. The FishMed database might be of interest in the context of global anthropogenic changes as coastal Mediterranean ecosystems are currently recognized as one of the most impacted ecosystems on earth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]