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Recent studies have used occupancy models (OM) and ecological niche models (ENM) to provide a better understanding of species' distributions at different scales. One of the main ideas underlying the theoretical foundations of both OM and ENM is that they are positively related to abundance: higher occupancy implies higher density and more suitable areas are likely to have more abundant populations. Here, we analyze the relationship between habitat use measured in terms of occupancy probabilities from OM and environmental suitability derived from ENM in three different Neotropical mammal species: Leopardus wiedii , Cuniculus paca , and Dasypus novemcinctus. For ENM, we used climatic and vegetation cover variables and implemented a model calibration and selection protocol to select the most competitive models. For OM, we used a single-species, single-season model with site covariates for camera-trap data from six different sites throughout the Neotropical realm. Covariates included vegetation percentage, normalized difference vegetation index, normalized difference water index, and elevation. For each site, we fit OM using all possible combinations of variables and selected the most competitive (ΔAICc < 2) to build an average OM. We explored relationships between estimated suitability and occupancy values using Spearman correlation analysis. Relationships between ENM and OM tended to be positive for the three Neotropical mammals, but the strength varied among sites, which could be explained by local factors such as site characteristics and conservation status of areas. We conjecture that ENM are suitable to understand spatial patterns at coarser geographic scales because the concept of the niche is about the species as a whole, whereas OM are more relevant to explain the distribution locally, likely reflecting transient dynamics of populations resulting from many local factors such as community composition and biotic processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Simple Summary: Here, we describe climate change effects on biodiversity, mainly in pest species related to greenhouse production. We used statistical and theoretical methods to describe crops' vulnerability under worldwide climate change. Some insects (flies) generate economic damage in mushroom, strawberry, and nursery production. We determined potential risk areas for the invasion of three fly species under different climate change scenarios in 2050. Range expansion was determined in the Northern Hemisphere; however, some regions in South America, Africa, and Australia had increases and potentially invasive areas. Our results provide information for farmers, researchers, and politicians for decision-making around production to reduce possible damage caused by pests. Lycoriella species (Sciaridae) are responsible for significant economic losses in greenhouse production (e.g., mushrooms, strawberries, and nurseries). The current distributions of species in the genus are restricted to cold-climate countries. Three species of Lycoriella are of particular economic concern in view of their ability to invade areas in countries across the Northern Hemisphere. We used ecological niche models to determine the potential for range expansion under future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in the distribution of these three species of Lycoriella. Stable environmental suitability under climate change was a dominant theme in these species; however, potential range increases were noted in key countries (e.g., USA, Brazil, and China). Our results illustrate the potential for range expansion in these species in the Southern Hemisphere, including some of the highest greenhouse production areas in the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]