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Aim: Reconstructing species' glacial refugial history and demographic changes over time has greatly relied on comparing inferences from multiple methods while not sufficiently acknowledging their limitations. Here, we aim to integrate as fully as possible complementary methods in ecology, genomics and palaeobiology to improve the reconstruction of species biogeographical history. Location: South‐western Europe. Taxon: Cabrera vole (Microtus cabrerae). Methods: We compiled and mapped the raw fossil data of the Cabrera vole for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Mid‐Holocene (MH). Alongside, we projected the calibrated ecological niche model (ENM) of the species' current distribution for the LGM, the Younger Dryas and the MH. Complementarily, we used previously obtained Genotyping‐by‐Sequencing data to evaluate the demographic history and range expansion patterns of all four Evolutionarily Significant Units of the species, in an integrative framework. Results: ENM‐inferred refugial areas and genomic modelling consistently supported northern Iberian glacial refugia for the Cabrera vole. This contrasted with the higher fossil abundance of the species in southern and eastern Iberia and southern France from the LGM to the MH. Our results suggest that populations in areas with high fossil abundance went extinct, and were later replaced by northern Iberian populations such that they did not contribute significantly to the current gene pool. Main conclusions Our integrative approach indicates how the range of the Cabrera vole fluctuated in response to environmental change during and following the LGM. Despite methodological limitations, the ENM and genomic approaches produced generally congruent results. Instead, the fossil record may misrepresent the ancestral distribution of this species and should be considered cautiously for ancestral distribution reconstruction, considering that it also reflects the fossilization conditions. Overall, our study supports the idea that integrative approaches are essential to provide an accurate and well‐supported picture of historical refugial areas and range dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Aim: Range shift is a relatively well‐understood response to climate change, but our ability to predict shifts is limited. Two factors that may cause variation in range shifts across species are dispersal ability and varying rates of climate change through time and across space. Here, we assess patterns of range shifts during the late Quaternary and estimate how the velocity of climate change and the dispersal ability of a species affect the magnitude of species range shifts in response to climate change. Location: North America. Methods: We hindcast species distribution models for 122 North American mammals to five times over the past 17,000 years and forecast them to two future times given two emissions scenarios. Generalized additive models were constructed to quantify the importance of dispersal ability and the velocity of temperature and precipitation in determining the magnitude of range shift expected for individual species. Results: Hindcasted and forecasted ranges demonstrate the variety of responses to climate change. In general, species shifted their ranges in a northerly direction (NW, N, NE) regardless of the type of climate change (i.e., warming vs. cooling). The highest rates of range shifts during the past occurred during periods of relatively rapid climate change (Last Glacial Maximum/Bølling‐Allerød and Bølling‐Allerød/Younger Dryas transitions). Rates of range shifts for the future are projected to be significantly higher than any of the past intervals. The velocity of climate change is significantly associated with the magnitude of range shifts during climate transitions that occur over longer time‐scales, while maximum dispersal distance is important during periods of rapid climate change. Main Conclusions: Our results suggest that both the dispersal ability and the velocity of climate change are significantly associated with species’ range shifts. However, the importance of these two factors is context‐dependent and depends on the interaction of the rate of climate change and the length of time over which the change occurs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing development of species distribution models (SDMs) using palaeodata has created new prospects to address questions of evolution, ecology and biogeography from wider perspectives. Palaeobotanical data provide information on the past distribution of taxa at a given time and place and its incorporation on modelling has contributed to advancing the SDM field. This has allowed, for example, to calibrate models under past climate conditions or to validate projected models calibrated on current species distributions. However, these data also bear certain shortcomings when used in SDMs that may hinder the resulting ecological outcomes and eventually lead to misleading conclusions. Palaeodata may not be equivalent to present data, but instead frequently exhibit limitations and biases regarding species representation, taxonomy and chronological control, and their inclusion in SDMs should be carefully assessed. The limitations of palaeobotanical data applied to SDM studies are infrequently discussed and often neglected in the modelling literature; thus, we argue for the more careful selection and control of these data. We encourage authors to use palaeobotanical data in their SDMs studies and for doing so, we propose some recommendations to improve the robustness, reliability and significance of palaeo-SDM analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecology Letters (2012) 15: 649-657 Abstract Paleoclimatic reconstructions coupled with species distribution models and identification of extant spatial genetic structure have the potential to provide insights into the demographic events that shape the distribution of intra-specific genetic variation across time. Using the globeflower Trollius europaeus as a case-study, we combined (1) Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphisms, (2) suites of 1000-years stepwise hindcasted species distributions and (3) a model of diffusion through time over the last 24,000 years, to trace the spatial dynamics that most likely fits the species' current genetic structure. We show that the globeflower comprises four gene pools in Europe which, from the dry period preceding the Last Glacial Maximum, dispersed while tracking the conditions fitting its climatic niche. Among these four gene pools, two are predicted to experience drastic range retraction in the near future. Our interdisciplinary approach, applicable to virtually any taxon, is an advance in inferring how climate change impacts species' genetic structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirically derived species distributions models ( SDMs) are increasingly relied upon to forecast species vulnerabilities to future climate change. However, many of the assumptions of SDMs may be violated when they are used to project species distributions across significant climate change events. In particular, SDM's in theory assume stable fundamental niches, but in practice, they assume stable realized niches. The assumption of a fixed realized niche relative to climate variables remains unlikely for various reasons, particularly if novel future climates open up currently unavailable portions of species' fundamental niches. To demonstrate this effect, we compare the climate distributions for fossil-pollen data from 21 to 15 ka bp (relying on paleoclimate simulations) when communities and climates with no modern analog were common across North America to observed modern pollen assemblages. We test how well SDMs are able to project 20th century pollen-based taxon distributions with models calibrated using data from 21 to 15 ka. We find that taxa which were abundant in areas with no-analog late glacial climates, such as Fraxinus, Ostrya/Carpinus and Ulmus, substantially shifted their realized niches from the late glacial period to present. SDMs for these taxa had low predictive accuracy when projected to modern climates despite demonstrating high predictive accuracy for late glacial pollen distributions. For other taxa, e.g. Quercus, Picea, Pinus strobus, had relatively stable realized niches and models for these taxa tended to have higher predictive accuracy when projected to present. Our findings reinforce the point that a realized niche at any one time often represents only a subset of the climate conditions in which a taxon can persist. Projections from SDMs into future climate conditions that are based solely on contemporary realized distributions are potentially misleading for assessing the vulnerability of species to future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim We investigated the roles of lithology and climate in constraining the ranges of four co-distributed species of Iberian saline-habitat specialist water beetles ( Ochthebius glaber, Ochthebius notabilis, Enochrus falcarius and Nebrioporus baeticus) across the late Quaternary and in shaping their geographical genetic structure. The aim was to improve our understanding of the effects of past climate changes on the biota of arid Mediterranean environments and of the relative importance of history and landscape on phylogeographical patterns. Location Iberian Peninsula, Mediterranean. Methods We combined species distribution modelling (SDM) and comparative phylogeography. We used a multi-model inference and model-averaging approach both for assessment of range determinants (climate and lithology) and for provision of spatially explicit estimates of the species current and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) potential ranges. Potential LGM distributions were then contrasted with the phylogeographical and population expansion patterns as assessed using mitochondrial DNA sequence data. We also evaluated the relative importance of geographical distance, habitat resistance and historical isolation for genetic structure in a causal modelling framework. Results Lithology poses a strong constraint on the distribution of Iberian saline-habitat specialist water beetles, with a variable, but generally moderate, additional influence by climate. The degree to which potential LGM distributions were reduced and fragmented decreased with increasing importance of lithology. These SDM-based suitability predictions were mostly congruent with phylogeographical and population genetic patterns across the study species, with stronger geographical structure in the genetic diversity of the more temperature-sensitive species ( O. glaber and E. falcarius). Furthermore, while historical isolation was the only factor explaining genetic structure in the more temperature-sensitive species, lithology-controlled landscape configuration also played an important role for those species with more lithology-determined ranges ( O. notabilis and N. baeticus). Main conclusions Our data show that lithology is an important constraint on the distribution and range dynamics of endemic Iberian saline-habitat water beetles, in interaction with climate and long-term climate change, and overrides the latter in importance for some species. Hence, geological landscape structure and long-term history may codetermine the overall range and the distribution of genetic lineages in endemic species with specialized edaphic requirements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Species distribution modeling (SDM: statistical and/or mechanistic approaches to the assessment of range determinants and prediction of species occurrence) offers new possibilities for estimating and studying past organism distributions. SDM complements fossil and genetic evidence by providing (i) quantitative and potentially high-resolution predictions of the past organism distributions, (ii) statistically formulated, testable ecological hypotheses regarding past distributions and communities, and (iii) statistical assessment of range determinants. In this article, we provide an overview of applications of SDM to paleobiology, outlining the methodology, reviewing SDM-based studies to paleobiology or at the interface of paleo- and neobiology, discussing assumptions and uncertainties as well as how to handle them, and providing a synthesis and outlook. Key methodological issues for SDM applications to paleobiology include predictor variables (types and properties; special emphasis is given to paleoclimate), model validation (particularly important given the emphasis on cross-temporal predictions in paleobiological applications), and the integration of SDM and genetics approaches. Over the last few years the number of studies using SDM to address paleobiology-related questions has increased considerably. While some of these studies only use SDM (23%), most combine them with genetically inferred patterns (49%), paleoecological records (22%), or both (6%). A large number of SDM-based studies have addressed the role of Pleistocene glacial refugia in biogeography and evolution, especially in Europe, but also in many other regions. SDM-based approaches are also beginning to contribute to a suite of other research questions, such as historical constraints on current distributions and diversity patterns, the end-Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions, past community assembly, human paleobiogeography, Holocene paleoecology, and even deep-time biogeography (notably, providing insights into biogeographic dynamics >400 million years ago). We discuss important assumptions and uncertainties that affect the SDM approach to paleobiology – the equilibrium postulate, niche stability, changing atmospheric CO2 concentrations – as well as ways to address these (ensemble, functional SDM, and non-SDM ecoinformatics approaches). We conclude that the SDM approach offers important opportunities for advances in paleobiology by providing a quantitative ecological perspective, and hereby also offers the potential for an enhanced contribution of paleobiology to ecology and conservation biology, e.g., for estimating climate change impacts and for informing ecological restoration. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Species distribution model (SDM) projections under future climate scenarios are increasingly being used to inform resource management and conservation strategies. A critical assumption for projecting climate change responses is that SDMs are transferable through time, an assumption that is largely untested because investigators often lack temporally independent data for assessing transferability. Further, understanding how the ecology of species influences temporal transferability is critical yet almost wholly lacking. This raises two questions. (1) Are SDM projections transferable in time? (2) Does temporal transferability relate to species ecological traits? To address these questions we developed SDMs for 133 vascular plant species using data from the mountain ranges of California (USA) from two time periods: the 1930s and the present day. We forecast historical models over 75 years of measured climate change and assessed their projections against current distributions. Similarly, we hindcast contemporary models and compared their projections to historical data. We quantified transferability and related it to species ecological traits including physiognomy, endemism, dispersal capacity, fire adaptation, and commonness. We found that non-endemic species with greater dispersal capacity, intermediate levels of prevalence, and little fire adaptation had higher transferability than endemic species with limited dispersal capacity that rely on fire for reproduction. We demonstrate that variability in model performance was driven principally by differences among species as compared to model algorithms or time period of model calibration. Further, our results suggest that the traits correlated with prediction accuracy in a single time period may not be related to transferability between time periods. Our findings provide a priori guidance for the suitability of SDM as an approach for forecasting climate change responses for certain taxa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The forests in the Iberian Peninsula have been strongly influenced by past climatic changes, but reconstructing their historical distributions and dynamics is very difficult due to the complex climatic characteristics and relief of the region. Research disciplines such as phylogeography and species distribution modelling can describe the past range dynamics of individual tree species in relatively great detail and help elucidate how these species have reacted to climatic changes. Here we review phylogeographical and modelling studies from species representative of the major Iberian forest types and attempt to extract general trends from the diversity of individual species histories in the Peninsula. To date most studies focus on geographical range dynamics during the Pleistocene, but an increasing body of evidence shows that some species have also retained the genetic imprints of much more ancient processes. Many widespread Iberian species show a deep and often remarkably clear-cut divide between populations from the Mediterranean and from the Atlantic regions of the Iberian Peninsula, suggesting that both areas have independently sustained viable populations over extended periods. In fact, phylogeographical studies commonly find that species had several glacial refugia across the Iberian Peninsula. On the other hand, distribution models help identifying further suitable areas that could have sustained so far undetected refugia. Such studies are of interest for species conservation, because refugium populations are high-priority targets due to their long-term persistence and unique evolutionary trajectory. Overall, we conclude that palaeoecology, phylogeography and species distribution modelling have a great potential to inform each other because of their complementary perspectives and results. A true integration of these approaches is therefore fundamental for further progress in our understanding of past Iberian environments and the organisms they harboured. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The usefulness of species distribution models (SDMs) in predicting impacts of climate change on biodiversity is difficult to assess because changes in species ranges may take decades or centuries to occur. One alternative way to evaluate the predictive ability of SDMs across time is to compare their predictions with data on past species distributions. We use data on plant distributions, fossil pollen and current and mid-Holocene climate to test the ability of SDMs to predict past climate-change impacts. We find that species showing little change in the estimated position of their realized niche, with resulting good model performance, tend to be dominant competitors for light. Different mechanisms appear to be responsible for among-species differences in model performance. Confidence in predictions of the impacts of climate change could be improved by selecting species with characteristics that suggest little change is expected in the relationships between species occurrence and climate patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]