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We investigated the potential economic impacts of future spruce budworm (SBW) ( (Clemens)) outbreaks on 2.8 million hectares of Crown forest land in New Brunswick by coupling an advanced Spruce Budworm Decision Support System (SBW DSS) model with a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. A total of 16 alternative scenarios were evaluated, including two SBW outbreak severities (moderate versus severe), four SBW control program levels (protecting 0%, 10%, 20%, and 40% of susceptible Crown land forest area), and two pest management strategies ('without' versus 'with' replanning harvest scheduling and salvage). The 'without' replanning harvest scheduling and salvage strategy findings indicated that, under uncontrolled moderate and severe SBW outbreaks, total output in the New Brunswick economy over the 2012-2041 period would decline in present-value terms by CDN$3.3 billion and $4.7 billion, respectively. SBW control via aerial spraying was shown to reduce the negative impacts on output by up to 66% when protecting 40% of susceptible area. Combining SBW control with replanning harvest scheduling and salvage strategy under moderate and severe outbreaks would reduce the negative impacts on output by a further 1%-18% depending on the level of control implemented. These findings can help forest managers assess the direct and indirect economic effects of forest pest disturbances on regional economies and can also be used together with other sustainable forest management indicators to help broaden the scope of SBW and other forest pest management decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study employs a benefit-cost analysis framework to estimate market and non-market benefits and costs of controlling future spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) outbreaks on Crown forest lands in New Brunswick, Canada. We used: (i) an advanced timber supply model to project potential timber volume saved, timber value benefits, and costs of pest control efforts; and (ii) a recent contingent valuation method analysis that evaluated non-market benefits (i.e., changes in recreation opportunities and existence values) of controlling future spruce budworm outbreaks in the Province. A total of six alternative scenarios were evaluated, including two uncontrolled future budworm outbreak severities (moderate vs. severe) and, for each severity, three control program levels (protecting 10%, 20%, or 40% of the susceptible Crown land forest area). The economic criteria used to evaluate each scenario included benefit-cost ratios and net present values. Under severe outbreak conditions, results indicated that the highest benefit-cost ratio (4.04) occurred when protecting 10% (284,000 ha) of the susceptible area, and the highest net present value ($111 M) occurred when protecting 20% (568,000 ha) of the susceptible area. Under moderate outbreak conditions, the highest benefit-cost ratio (3.24) and net present value ($58.7 M) occurred when protecting 10% (284,000 ha) of the susceptible area. Inclusion of non-market values generally increased the benefit-cost ratios and net present values of the control programs, and in some cases, led to higher levels of control being supported. Results of this study highlight the importance of including non-market values into the decision making process of forest pest management. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A public mail survey was sent to a sample of New Brunswick (NB) and Saskatchewan (SK) residents in 2007 to investigate their attitudes about controlling two very different forest pests: spruce budworm (SBW) (Choristoneura fumiferana) and forest tent caterpillar (FTC) (Malacosoma disstria). Participants were asked a series of questions related to their knowledge of these pests and their preferences over control options and program extents. SBW was the most widely known forest pest in NB, and FTC was most widely known in SK. Both groups largely supported (at over 80%) controlling future SBW and FTC outbreaks with biological control. They generally agreed that ecologically sensitive areas and wildlife habitat were the top priority that should be protected during the next outbreak of either pest. However, provincial differences in attitudes were found over the rank order of forest-type priorities that should be protected and the rank order of control options. Socio-demographic factors found to positively influence the preferred SBW and FTC control extent included those who had a high level of pest knowledge, those who had family members work in the forest industry, those who were residents in New Brunswick, those who were male, those who were aged 55 and over, those who had an education level beyond secondary school, and those who had household income of $50,000 or more. Results of this study can be used to assist policy makers and forest managers to arrive at publically acceptable pest control policies and make better informed decisions about future pest outbreaks. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We investigated the potential economic impacts of future spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) (SBW) outbreaks on 2.8 million ha of Crown land in New Brunswick, Canada and compared an early intervention strategy (EIS) with foliage protection approaches. We coupled the Spruce Budworm Decision Support System (SBW DSS) with a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the impacts of EIS and foliage protection on 0%, 5%, 10%, and 20% of susceptible Crown (publicly owned) forest, under moderate and severe SBW outbreak scenarios. Cumulative available harvest supply from 2017 to 2067 was projected to be reduced by 29 to 43 million m3, depending upon SBW outbreak severity, and a successful EIS approach would prevent this loss. These harvest reductions were projected to reduce total economic output by $25 billion (CAD) to $35 billion. Scenarios using biological insecticide foliage protection over 20% of susceptible Crown forest area were projected to reduce losses to 6–17 million m3 and $0.5–4.1 billion. Depending upon SBW outbreak severity, EIS was projected to have benefit/cost ratios of 3.8 to 6.4 and net present values of $186 million to $353 million, both higher than foliage protection strategies. Sensitivity analysis scenarios of 'what if' EIS partially works (80% or 90%) showed that these produced superior timber harvest savings than the best foliage protection scenario under severe SBW outbreak conditions and generally superior results under moderate outbreak scenarios. Overall, results support the continued use of EIS as the preferred strategy on economic grounds to protect against SBW outbreaks on Crown land in New Brunswick. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]