1. Recurrence-free survival as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival after neoadjuvant chemotherapy and surgery for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma.
- Author
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Okui, Jun, Nagashima, Kengo, Matsuda, Satoru, Sato, Yasunori, Okamura, Akihiko, Kawakubo, Hirofumi, Muto, Manabu, Kakeji, Yoshihiro, Kono, Koji, Takeuchi, Hiroya, Watanabe, Masayuki, Doki, Yuichiro, Bamba, Takeo, Fukuda, Takashi, Fujiwara, Hitoshi, Sato, Shinsuke, Noma, Kazuhiro, Miyata, Hiroshi, Fujita, Takeo, and Kitagawa, Yuko
- Subjects
OVERALL survival ,NEOADJUVANT chemotherapy ,SQUAMOUS cell carcinoma ,MOHS surgery ,TREATMENT effectiveness - Abstract
Background: Overall survival is considered as one of the most important endpoints of treatment efficacy but often requires long follow-up. This study aimed to determine the validity of recurrence-free survival as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival in patients with surgically resectable advanced oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). Methods: Patients with OSCC who received neoadjuvant cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil, or docetaxel, cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil, at 58 Japanese oesophageal centres certified by the Japan Esophageal Society were reviewed retrospectively. The correlation between recurrence-free and overall survival was assessed using Kendall's τ. Results: The study included 3154 patients. The 5-year overall and recurrence-free survival rates were 56.6 and 47.7% respectively. The primary analysis revealed a strong correlation between recurrence-free and overall survival (Kendall's τ 0.797, 95% c.i. 0.782 to 0.812) at the individual level. Subgroup analysis showed a positive relationship between a more favourable pathological response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy and a higher τ value. In the meta-regression model, the adjusted R
2 value at the institutional level was 100 (95% c.i. 40.2 to 100)%. The surrogate threshold effect was 0.703. Conclusion: There was a strong correlation between recurrence-free and overall survival in patients with surgically resectable OSCC who underwent neoadjuvant chemotherapy, and this was more pronounced in patients with a better response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. In this retrospective cohort study involving 3154 patients, a strong correlation between recurrence-free and overall survival was established, and this correlation was more pronounced in patients who had a more effective response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. These findings are beneficial for expediting the development of novel neoadjuvant treatments by shortening the duration of clinical trials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2024
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