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Generative models can be trained to emulate complex empirical data, but are they useful to make predictions in the context of previously unobserved environments? An intuitive idea to promote such extrapolation capabilities is to have the architecture of such model reflect a causal graph of the true data generating process, such that one can intervene on each node independently of the others. However, the nodes of this graph are usually unobserved, leading to overparameterization and lack of identifiability of the causal structure. We develop a theoretical framework to address this challenging situation by defining a weaker form of identifiability, based on the principle of independence of mechanisms. We demonstrate on toy examples that classical stochastic gradient descent can hinder the model's extrapolation capabilities, suggesting independence of mechanisms should be enforced explicitly during training. Experiments on deep generative models trained on real world data support these insights and illustrate how the extrapolation capabilities of such models can be leveraged., 21 pages

Intelligent agents should be able to learn useful representations by observing changes in their environment. We model such observations as pairs of non-i.i.d. images sharing at least one of the underlying factors of variation. First, we theoretically show that only knowing how many factors have changed, but not which ones, is sufficient to learn disentangled representations. Second, we provide practical algorithms that learn disentangled representations from pairs of images without requiring annotation of groups, individual factors, or the number of factors that have changed. Third, we perform a large-scale empirical study and show that such pairs of observations are sufficient to reliably learn disentangled representations on several benchmark data sets. Finally, we evaluate our learned representations and find that they are simultaneously useful on a diverse suite of tasks, including generalization under covariate shifts, fairness, and abstract reasoning. Overall, our results demonstrate that weak supervision enables learning of useful disentangled representations in realistic scenarios., We updated the description of the generation of the dataset compared to the ICML version

Reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms usually require a substantial amount of interaction data and perform well only for specific tasks in a fixed environment. In some scenarios such as healthcare, however, usually only few records are available for each patient, and patients may show different responses to the same treatment, impeding the application of current RL algorithms to learn optimal policies. To address the issues of mechanism heterogeneity and related data scarcity, we propose a data-efficient RL algorithm that exploits structural causal models (SCMs) to model the state dynamics, which are estimated by leveraging both commonalities and differences across subjects. The learned SCM enables us to counterfactually reason what would have happened had another treatment been taken. It helps avoid real (possibly risky) exploration and mitigates the issue that limited experiences lead to biased policies. We propose counterfactual RL algorithms to learn both population-level and individual-level policies. We show that counterfactual outcomes are identifiable under mild conditions and that Q- learning on the counterfactual-based augmented data set converges to the optimal value function. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach., Comment: Neural Information Processing Systems Workshop on Offline Reinforcement Learning

Recent work has discussed the limitations of counterfactual explanations to recommend actions for algorithmic recourse, and argued for the need of taking causal relationships between features into consideration. Unfortunately, in practice, the true underlying structural causal model is generally unknown. In this work, we first show that it is impossible to guarantee recourse without access to the true structural equations. To address this limitation, we propose two probabilistic approaches to select optimal actions that achieve recourse with high probability given limited causal knowledge (e.g., only the causal graph). The first captures uncertainty over structural equations under additive Gaussian noise, and uses Bayesian model averaging to estimate the counterfactual distribution. The second removes any assumptions on the structural equations by instead computing the average effect of recourse actions on individuals similar to the person who seeks recourse, leading to a novel subpopulation-based interventional notion of recourse. We then derive a gradient-based procedure for selecting optimal recourse actions, and empirically show that the proposed approaches lead to more reliable recommendations under imperfect causal knowledge than non-probabilistic baselines., Comment: Camera ready version (NeurIPS 2020 spotlight)

The idea behind the unsupervised learning of disentangled representations is that real-world data is generated by a few explanatory factors of variation which can be recovered by unsupervised learning algorithms. In this paper, we provide a sober look at recent progress in the field and challenge some common assumptions. We first theoretically show that the unsupervised learning of disentangled representations is fundamentally impossible without inductive biases on both the models and the data. Then, we train over 14000 models covering most prominent methods and evaluation metrics in a reproducible large-scale experimental study on eight data sets. We observe that while the different methods successfully enforce properties “encouraged” by the corresponding losses, well-disentangled models seemingly cannot be identified without supervision. Furthermore, different evaluation metrics do not always agree on what should be considered “disentangled” and exhibit systematic differences in the estimation. Finally, increased disentanglement does not seem to necessarily lead to a decreased sample complexity of learning for downstream tasks. Our results suggest that future work on disentanglement learning should be explicit about the role of inductive biases and (implicit) supervision, investigate concrete benefits of enforcing disentanglement of the learned representations, and consider a reproducible experimental setup covering several data sets., Journal of Machine Learning Research, 21, ISSN:1532-4435, ISSN:1533-7928

Modern large-scale kernel-based tests such as maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) and kernelized Stein discrepancy (KSD) optimize kernel hyperparameters on a held-out sample via data splitting to obtain the most powerful test statistics. While data splitting results in a tractable null distribution, it suffers from a reduction in test power due to smaller test sample size. Inspired by the selective inference framework, we propose an approach that enables learning the hyperparameters and testing on the full sample without data splitting. Our approach can correctly calibrate the test in the presence of such dependency, and yield a test threshold in closed form. At the same significance level, our approach's test power is empirically larger than that of the data-splitting approach, regardless of its split proportion., Comment: 24 (11+13) pages, 10 figures. Camera-Ready version. Accepted to the Thirty-fourth Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS 2020)

Recently there has been a significant interest in learning disentangled representations, as they promise increased interpretability, generalization to unseen scenarios and faster learning on downstream tasks. In this paper, we investigate the usefulness of different notions of disentanglement for improving the fairness of downstream prediction tasks based on representations. We consider the setting where the goal is to predict a target variable based on the learned representation of high-dimensional observations (such as images) that depend on both the target variable and an \emph{unobserved} sensitive variable. We show that in this setting both the optimal and empirical predictions can be unfair, even if the target variable and the sensitive variable are independent. Analyzing the representations of more than \num{12600} trained state-of-the-art disentangled models, we observe that several disentanglement scores are consistently correlated with increased fairness, suggesting that disentanglement may be a useful property to encourage fairness when sensitive variables are not observed.

We consider the problem of recovering a common latent source with independent components from multiple views. This applies to settings in which a variable is measured with multiple experimental modalities, and where the goal is to synthesize the disparate measurements into a single unified representation. We consider the case that the observed views are a nonlinear mixing of component-wise corruptions of the sources. When the views are considered separately, this reduces to nonlinear Independent Component Analysis (ICA) for which it is provably impossible to undo the mixing. We present novel identifiability proofs that this is possible when the multiple views are considered jointly, showing that the mixing can theoretically be undone using function approximators such as deep neural networks. In contrast to known identifiability results for nonlinear ICA, we prove that independent latent sources with arbitrary mixing can be recovered as long as multiple, sufficiently different noisy views are available.

Deep generative models can emulate the perceptual properties of complex image datasets, providing a latent representation of the data. However, manipulating such representation to perform meaningful and controllable transformations in the data space remains challenging without some form of supervision. While previous work has focused on exploiting statistical independence to disentangle latent factors, we argue that such requirement is too restrictive and propose instead a non-statistical framework that relies on counterfactual manipulations to uncover a modular structure of the network composed of disentangled groups of internal variables. Experiments with a variety of generative models trained on complex image datasets show the obtained modules can be used to design targeted interventions. This opens the way to applications such as computationally efficient style transfer and the automated assessment of robustness to contextual changes in pattern recognition systems., 26 pages, 17 figures

Complex systems can be modelled at various levels of detail. Ideally, causal models of the same system should be consistent with one another in the sense that they agree in their predictions of the effects of interventions. We formalise this notion of consistency in the case of Structural Equation Models (SEMs) by introducing exact transformations between SEMs. This provides a general language to consider, for instance, the different levels of description in the following three scenarios: (a) models with large numbers of variables versus models in which the `irrelevant' or unobservable variables have been marginalised out; (b) micro-level models versus macro-level models in which the macro-variables are aggregate features of the micro-variables; (c) dynamical time series models versus models of their stationary behaviour. Our analysis stresses the importance of well specified interventions in the causal modelling process and sheds light on the interpretation of cyclic SEMs., equal contribution between Rubenstein and Weichwald; accepted manuscript

The postulate of independence of cause and mechanism (ICM) has recently led to several new causal discovery algorithms. The interpretation of independence and the way it is utilized, however, varies across these methods. Our aim in this paper is to propose a group theoretic framework for ICM to unify and generalize these approaches. In our setting, the cause-mechanism relationship is assessed by comparing it against a null hypothesis through the application of random generic group transformations. We show that the group theoretic view provides a very general tool to study the structure of data generating mechanisms with direct applications to machine learning., Comment: 16 pages, 6 figures

We consider the problem of learning causal directed acyclic graphs from an observational joint distribution. One can use these graphs to predict the outcome of interventional experiments, from which data are often not available. We show that if the observational distribution follows a structural equation model with an additive noise structure, the directed acyclic graph becomes identifiable from the distribution under mild conditions. This constitutes an interesting alternative to traditional methods that assume faithfulness and identify only the Markov equivalence class of the graph, thus leaving some edges undirected. We provide practical algorithms for finitely many samples, RESIT (Regression with Subsequent Independence Test) and two methods based on an independence score. We prove that RESIT is correct in the population setting and provide an empirical evaluation.

We provide a theoretical foundation for non-parametric estimation of functions of random variables using kernel mean embeddings. We show that for any continuous function $f$, consistent estimators of the mean embedding of a random variable $X$ lead to consistent estimators of the mean embedding of $f(X)$. For Mat\'ern kernels and sufficiently smooth functions we also provide rates of convergence. Our results extend to functions of multiple random variables. If the variables are dependent, we require an estimator of the mean embedding of their joint distribution as a starting point; if they are independent, it is sufficient to have separate estimators of the mean embeddings of their marginal distributions. In either case, our results cover both mean embeddings based on i.i.d. samples as well as "reduced set" expansions in terms of dependent expansion points. The latter serves as a justification for using such expansions to limit memory resources when applying the approach as a basis for probabilistic programming., Comment: 17 pages including appendix

We pose causal inference as the problem of learning to classify probability distributions. In particular, we assume access to a collection $\{(S_i,l_i)\}_{i=1}^n$, where each $S_i$ is a sample drawn from the probability distribution of $X_i \times Y_i$, and $l_i$ is a binary label indicating whether "$X_i \to Y_i$" or "$X_i \leftarrow Y_i$". Given these data, we build a causal inference rule in two steps. First, we featurize each $S_i$ using the kernel mean embedding associated with some characteristic kernel. Second, we train a binary classifier on such embeddings to distinguish between causal directions. We present generalization bounds showing the statistical consistency and learning rates of the proposed approach, and provide a simple implementation that achieves state-of-the-art cause-effect inference. Furthermore, we extend our ideas to infer causal relationships between more than two variables.

We describe a method for removing the effect of confounders in order to reconstruct a latent quantity of interest. The method, referred to as half-sibling regression, is inspired by recent work in causal inference using additive noise models. We provide a theoretical justification and illustrate the potential of the method in a challenging astronomy application., Comment: Extended version of a paper appearing in the Proceedings of the 32nd International Conference on Machine Learning, Lille, France, 2015

We propose one-class support measure machines (OCSMMs) for group anomaly detection which aims at recognizing anomalous aggregate behaviors of data points. The OCSMMs generalize well-known one-class support vector machines (OCSVMs) to a space of probability measures. By formulating the problem as quantile estimation on distributions, we can establish an interesting connection to the OCSVMs and variable kernel density estimators (VKDEs) over the input space on which the distributions are defined, bridging the gap between large-margin methods and kernel density estimators. In particular, we show that various types of VKDEs can be considered as solutions to a class of regularization problems studied in this paper. Experiments on Sloan Digital Sky Survey dataset and High Energy Particle Physics dataset demonstrate the benefits of the proposed framework in real-world applications., Comment: Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2013)

Information spreads across social and technological networks, but often the network structures are hidden from us and we only observe the traces left by the diffusion processes, called cascades. Can we recover the hidden network structures from these observed cascades? What kind of cascades and how many cascades do we need? Are there some network structures which are more difficult than others to recover? Can we design efficient inference algorithms with provable guarantees? Despite the increasing availability of cascade data and methods for inferring networks from these data, a thorough theoretical understanding of the above questions remains largely unexplored in the literature. In this paper, we investigate the network structure inference problem for a general family of continuous-time diffusion models using an $l_1$-regularized likelihood maximization framework. We show that, as long as the cascade sampling process satisfies a natural incoherence condition, our framework can recover the correct network structure with high probability if we observe $O(d^3 \log N)$ cascades, where $d$ is the maximum number of parents of a node and $N$ is the total number of nodes. Moreover, we develop a simple and efficient soft-thresholding inference algorithm, which we use to illustrate the consequences of our theoretical results, and show that our framework outperforms other alternatives in practice., To appear in the 31st International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2014

A mean function in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), or a kernel mean, is central to kernel methods in that it is used by many classical algorithms such as kernel principal component analysis, and it also forms the core inference step of modern kernel methods that rely on embedding probability distributions in RKHSs. Given a finite sample, an empirical average has been used commonly as a standard estimator of the true kernel mean. Despite a widespread use of this estimator, we show that it can be improved thanks to the well-known Stein phenomenon. We propose a new family of estimators called kernel mean shrinkage estimators (KMSEs), which benefit from both theoretical justifications and good empirical performance. The results demonstrate that the proposed estimators outperform the standard one, especially in a "large d, small n" paradigm., Comment: 41 pages

Networks provide a skeleton for the spread of contagions, like, information, ideas, behaviors and diseases. Many times networks over which contagions diffuse are unobserved and need to be inferred. Here we apply survival theory to develop general additive and multiplicative risk models under which the network inference problems can be solved efficiently by exploiting their convexity. Our additive risk model generalizes several existing network inference models. We show all these models are particular cases of our more general model. Our multiplicative model allows for modeling scenarios in which a node can either increase or decrease the risk of activation of another node, in contrast with previous approaches, which consider only positive risk increments. We evaluate the performance of our network inference algorithms on large synthetic and real cascade datasets, and show that our models are able to predict the length and duration of cascades in real data., Comment: To appear at ICML '13

We consider the problem of function estimation in the case where an underlying causal model can be inferred. This has implications for popular scenarios such as covariate shift, concept drift, transfer learning and semi-supervised learning. We argue that causal knowledge may facilitate some approaches for a given problem, and rule out others. In particular, we formulate a hypothesis for when semi-supervised learning can help, and corroborate it with empirical results., Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2012). arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1112.2738

We propose a method for inferring the existence of a latent common cause ('confounder') of two observed random variables. The method assumes that the two effects of the confounder are (possibly nonlinear) functions of the confounder plus independent, additive noise. We discuss under which conditions the model is identifiable (up to an arbitrary reparameterization of the confounder) from the joint distribution of the effects. We state and prove a theoretical result that provides evidence for the conjecture that the model is generically identifiable under suitable technical conditions. In addition, we propose a practical method to estimate the confounder from a finite i.i.d. sample of the effects and illustrate that the method works well on both simulated and real-world data., Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Twenty-Fifth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2009)

A Hilbert space embedding for probability measures has recently been proposed, with applications including dimensionality reduction, homogeneity testing, and independence testing. This embedding represents any probability measure as a mean element in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). A pseudometric on the space of probability measures can be defined as the distance between distribution embeddings: we denote this as $\gamma_k$, indexed by the kernel function $k$ that defines the inner product in the RKHS. We present three theoretical properties of $\gamma_k$. First, we consider the question of determining the conditions on the kernel $k$ for which $\gamma_k$ is a metric: such $k$ are denoted {\em characteristic kernels}. Unlike pseudometrics, a metric is zero only when two distributions coincide, thus ensuring the RKHS embedding maps all distributions uniquely (i.e., the embedding is injective). While previously published conditions may apply only in restricted circumstances (e.g. on compact domains), and are difficult to check, our conditions are straightforward and intuitive: bounded continuous strictly positive definite kernels are characteristic. Alternatively, if a bounded continuous kernel is translation-invariant on $\bb{R}^d$, then it is characteristic if and only if the support of its Fourier transform is the entire $\bb{R}^d$. Second, we show that there exist distinct distributions that are arbitrarily close in $\gamma_k$. Third, to understand the nature of the topology induced by $\gamma_k$, we relate $\gamma_k$ to other popular metrics on probability measures, and present conditions on the kernel $k$ under which $\gamma_k$ metrizes the weak topology., Comment: 48 pages

Learning meaningful and compact representations with disentangled semantic aspects is considered to be of key importance in representation learning. Since real-world data is notoriously costly to collect, many recent state-of-the-art disentanglement models have heavily relied on synthetic toy data-sets. In this paper, we propose a novel data-set which consists of over one million images of physical 3D objects with seven factors of variation, such as object color, shape, size and position. In order to be able to control all the factors of variation precisely, we built an experimental platform where the objects are being moved by a robotic arm. In addition, we provide two more datasets which consist of simulations of the experimental setup. These datasets provide for the first time the possibility to systematically investigate how well different disentanglement methods perform on real data in comparison to simulation, and how simulated data can be leveraged to build better representations of the real world. We provide a first experimental study of these questions and our results indicate that learned models transfer poorly, but that model and hyperparameter selection is an effective means of transferring information to the real world., Comment: NeurIPS 2019 Camera Ready Version

We describe a method that infers whether statistical dependences between two observed variables X and Y are due to a \direct" causal link or only due to a connecting causal path that contains an unobserved variable of low complexity, e.g., a binary variable. This problem is motivated by statistical genetics. Given a genetic marker that is correlated with a phenotype of interest, we want to detect whether this marker is causal or it only correlates with a causal one. Our method is based on the analysis of the location of the conditional distributions P(Y jx) in the simplex of all distributions of Y . We report encouraging results on semi-empirical data.

This paper presents a kernel-based discriminative learning framework on probability measures. Rather than relying on large collections of vectorial training examples, our framework learns using a collection of probability distributions that have been constructed to meaningfully represent training data. By representing these probability distributions as mean embeddings in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), we are able to apply many standard kernel-based learning techniques in straightforward fashion. To accomplish this, we construct a generalization of the support vector machine (SVM) called a support measure machine (SMM). Our analyses of SMMs provides several insights into their relationship to traditional SVMs. Based on such insights, we propose a flexible SVM (Flex-SVM) that places different kernel functions on each training example. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed framework., Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 25

The key idea behind the unsupervised learning of disentangled representations is that real-world data is generated by a few explanatory factors of variation which can be recovered by unsupervised learning algorithms. In this paper, we provide a sober look at recent progress in the field and challenge some common assumptions. We first theoretically show that the unsupervised learning of disentangled representations is fundamentally impossible without inductive biases on both the models and the data. Then, we train more than 12000 models covering most prominent methods and evaluation metrics in a reproducible large-scale experimental study on seven different data sets. We observe that while the different methods successfully enforce properties ``encouraged'' by the corresponding losses, well-disentangled models seemingly cannot be identified without supervision. Furthermore, increased disentanglement does not seem to lead to a decreased sample complexity of learning for downstream tasks. Our results suggest that future work on disentanglement learning should be explicit about the role of inductive biases and (implicit) supervision, investigate concrete benefits of enforcing disentanglement of the learned representations, and consider a reproducible experimental setup covering several data sets.

Generative adversarial networks (GANs) have been shown to produce realistic samples from high-dimensional distributions, but training them is considered hard. A possible explanation for training instabilities is the inherent imbalance between the networks: While the discriminator is trained directly on both real and fake samples, the generator only has control over the fake samples it produces since the real data distribution is fixed by the choice of a given dataset. We propose a simple modification that gives the generator control over the real samples which leads to a tempered learning process for both generator and discriminator. The real data distribution passes through a lens before being revealed to the discriminator, balancing the generator and discriminator by gradually revealing more detailed features necessary to produce high-quality results. The proposed module automatically adjusts the learning process to the current strength of the networks, yet is generic and easy to add to any GAN variant. In a number of experiments, we show that this can improve quality, stability and/or convergence speed across a range of different GAN architectures (DCGAN, LSGAN, WGAN-GP)., accepted to ICML 2018