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Managing coastal risk at the regional scale requires a prioritization of resources along the shoreline. A transparent and rigorous risk assessment should inform managers and stakeholders in their choices. This requires advances in modelling assessment (e.g., consideration of source and pathway conditions to define the probability of occurrence, nonlinear dynamics of the physical processes, better recognition of systemic impacts and non-economic losses) and open-source tools facilitating stakeholders' engagement in the process. This paper discusses how the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF) has been developed as part of the Resilience Increasing Strategies for Coasts Toolkit (RISC-KIT). The framework provides two levels of analysis. A coastal index approach is first recommended to narrow down the risk analysis to a reduced number of sectors which are subsequently geographically grouped into potential hotspots. For the second level of analysis an integrated modelling approach improves the regional risk assessment of the identified hotspots by increasing the spatial resolution of the hazard modelling by using innovative process-based multi-hazard models, by including generic vulnerability indicators in the impact assessment, and by calculating regional systemic impact indicators. A multi-criteria analysis of these indicators is performed to rank the hotspots and support the stakeholders in their selection. The CRAF has been applied and validated on ten European case studies with only small deviation to areas already recognised as high risk. The flexibility of the framework is essential to adapt the assessment to the specific region characteristics. The involvement of stakeholders is crucial not only to select the hotpots and validate the results, but also to support the collection of information and the valuation of assets at risk. As such, the CRAF permits a comprehensive and systemic risk analysis of the regional coast in order to identify and to select higher risk areas. Yet efforts still need to be amplified in the data collection process, in particular for socio-economic and environmental impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Catalan coast, as most of the developed Mediterranean coastal zone, can be characterized as a high-risk area to the impact of storms due to the large concentration of values together with the dominance of eroding shorelines. In consequence, any long-term coastal management scheme must include a risk analysis to permit decision makers to better allocate resources. This can be done in a nested approach in which hotspots are first identified along the coast at a regional scale and secondly, they are further analysed to produce dedicated risk reduction strategies. In this work, we apply the methodology developed within the RISC-KIT project for identifying and analysing coastal hotspots in the Catalan coast as a test for applying it to Mediterranean conditions. Obtained results show that this methodology is very efficient in identifying hotspots of storm-induced flooding and erosion at a regional scale. The adoption of the response approach resulted in the direct assessment of the hazards' probability distributions, which allowed for the selection of the severity of the hotspots to be identified. When a given coastal stretch behaves as a hotspot for both hazards, it is identified as a very highly-sensitive area to storm impacts. In the study area, the Tordera Delta possesses this condition of very high “hotspotness.” This has been demonstrated by the large and frequent damages suffered by the site during the past decades. The paper analyses different aspects related to the risk management of this area, including stakeholder actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Coastal erosion and storms represent a source of risk for settlements and infrastructure along the coast. At the same time, coastal natural assets, including landscape, are threatened by increasing development mainly driven by tourism. The Mediterranean coast is especially vulnerable to these processes, considering its high biological and cultural diversity. An additional challenge is represented by climate change, as it will force coastal communities to apply more or less drastic adaptation strategies. Coastal setbacks, used to protect coastal communities and infrastructure from storms and erosion, and to preserve coastal habitats and landscapes from degradation, is one of the main instruments suggested by the Protocol on Integrated Coastal Zone Management of the Barcelona Convention, entered into force on the 24 of March 2011. Its implementation has the potential to influence coastal policies in other regions, such as the neighbouring Black Sea. The CONSCIENCE project has formalized concepts and conducted specific studies to provide new tools for coastal erosion management practice. The objective of this paper is to present a synthesis of the research conducted into coastal setbacks for coastal erosion management and climate change adaptation. This is done by analysing the requirement of the Protocol, current processes and management practices in two case study areas (Costa Brava Bays in Spain and Danube Delta, in Romania) and the new challenges posed by climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Hazard assessment is one of the key elements to be included in any coastal risk assessment framework. Characterizing storm-induced erosion and inundation involves the assessment of the coastal response under the forcing of a stochastic source (the storm), acting on a variable morphology (the beach) and inducing some damages. Hazard assessment under any present or future scenario will be affected by uncertainties either associated to the models used, the definition of climate conditions, and the characterization of the coastal morphology. In this context, Bayesian Networks (BN) can effectively address the problem as they allow accounting for these uncertainties while characterizing stochastically the system response and giving insight on the dependencies among involved variables. In this work, a BN-based methodology for storm-induced hazard assessment at regional scale is presented. The methodology is able to account for uncertainties associated with included models and forcing conditions through Monte-Carlo simulations. It produces distributions of erosion and inundation hazards under given scenarios allowing conditioned hazard assessments as a function of storm and morphological variables. Results are compared to hazards evaluated using an existing Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF), at two locations of the Catalan coast already identified as hotspots for storm-induced erosion and/or flooding. • Hazard assessments involve a stochastic source, a variable pathway and model uncertainties. • Bayesian Network method for regional hazard assessment is developed to cope with variabilities and uncertainties. • It is successful in hotspot identification. Results have been compared to the CRAF-phase 1 robust assessment module. • It outputs current and future hazard distributions, and provides useful information for a preliminar selection of coastal adaptation alternatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal zones are under increasing risk as coastal hazards increase due to climate change and the consequences of these also increase due to on-going economic development. To effectively deal with this increased risk requires the development of validated tools to identify coastal areas of higher risk and to evaluate the effectiveness of disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures. This paper analyses the performance in the application of two tools which have been developed in the RISC-KIT project: the regional Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF) and a hotspot early warning system coupled with a decision support system (EWS/DSS). The paper discusses the main achievements of the tools as well as improvements needed to support their further use by the coastal community. The CRAF, a tool to identify and rank hotspots of coastal risk at the regional scale, provides useful results for coastal managers and stakeholders. A change over time of the hotspots location and ranking can be analysed as a function of changes on coastal occupation or climate change. This tool is highly dependent on the quality of available information and a major constraint to its application is the relatively poor availability and accessibility of high-quality data, particularly in respect to social-economic indicators, and to lesser extent the physical environment. The EWS/DSS can be used as a warning system to predict potential impacts or to test the effectiveness of risk reduction measures at a given hotspot. This tool provides high resolution results, but needs validation against impact data, which are still scarce. The EWS/DSS tool can be improved by enhancing the vulnerability relationships and detailing the receptors in each area (increasing the detail, but also model simulations). The developed EWS/DSS can be adapted and extended to include a greater range of conditions (including climate change), receptors, hazards and impacts, enhancing disaster preparedness for effective risk reduction for further events or morphological conditions. Despite these concerns, the tools assessed in this paper proved to be valuable instruments for coastal management and risk reduction that can be adopted in a wide range of coastal areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]