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Many Victorian catchments experienced a rainfall‐runoff relationship (RRR) shift during the Millennium Drought (1997–2009). Less annual streamflow was generated from annual rainfall during the drought than would have been expected for the same rainfall before the drought. Changes in weather systems, such as cyclones, fronts, and thunderstorms, were also observed during this period. In this study, we assess the role that changes in weather systems played in the RRR shift. We find that catchments that experienced a RRR shift tended to receive less of their rainfall from frontal weather systems, and more of their rainfall from thunderstorm‐enhanced cyclone and cyclone‐front hybrid systems during the drought than catchments that showed little change in RRR. Overall, changes in the proportion of rainfall from weather systems alone explained up to 43% of the variance in the RRR shift between catchments. Including parameters that quantify catchment processes and physiographic features indicated that weather system changes are not the primary indicator of a RRR shift. Catchment mean slope, aridity and valley confinement, together with proportional rainfall change of cyclone‐thunderstorms and cyclone‐front‐thunderstorms, explained 60% of the variance in the RRR shift between catchments. Focusing on streamflow availability, we find the importance of different weather systems and catchment characteristics varies depending on warm or cool season, eastern or western Victoria, and before or during the drought. Following the drought, some catchments largely maintained the RRR shift that occurred during the drought, and also experienced less of their rainfall from fronts and cyclones compared to the other catchments. Key Points: Weather system changes in Victoria, Australia are partly related to a change in rainfall‐runoff relationship (RRR) during a decade‐long droughtLess rainfall from fronts and more rainfall from thunderstorm enhanced systems were an indicator of RRR changeInternal catchment characteristics were a greater indicator of RRR change than changes in weather systems [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To accurately project future water availability under a drying climate, it is important to understand how precipitation is partitioned into other terrestrial water balance components, such as fluxes (evaporation, transpiration, runoff) and changes in storage (soil moisture, groundwater). Many studies have reported unexpected large runoff reductions during drought, particularly for multi‐year events, and some studies report a persistent change in partitioning even after the meteorological drought has ended. This study focused on understanding how actual evapotranspiration (AET) and change in subsurface storage (ΔS) respond to climate variability and change, examining Australia's Millennium Drought (MD, 1997–2009). The study initially conducted a catchment‐scale water balance analysis to investigate interactions between ΔS and AET. Then the water balance analysis was extended to regional scale to investigate ΔS using interpolated rainfall and discharge with remotely sensed AET. Lastly, we evaluated conceptual rainfall‐runoff model performance of two commonly used models against these water balance estimates. The evaluation of water‐balance‐derived ΔS against Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) estimates shows a significant multiyear storage decline; however, with different rates. In contrast, AET rates (annualized) remained approximately constant before and during the MD, contrasting with some reports of evapotranspiration enhancement elsewhere. Overall, given AET remained approximately constant, drought‐induced precipitation reductions were partitioned into ΔS and streamflow. The employed conceptual rainfall‐runoff models failed to realistically represent AET during the MD, suggesting the need for improved conceptualization of processes. This study provides useful implications for explaining future hydrological changes if similar AET behavior is observed under a drying climate. Key Points: For a multiyear drought, we investigated the impact of precipitation reductions on water balance fluxes and change in storageActual evapotranspiration was approximately unchanged even under prolonged droughts in a water‐limited regionBecause of this, precipitation reduction during the multiyear drought was partitioned into reductions in streamflow and subsurface storage [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding long-term trends in streamflow is important for water resource management. In this study, we investigate the long-term streamflow trends at 47 gauging sites within the southern Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), Australia. This study aims to estimate regional streamflow trends while understanding the impact of catchment characteristics on the spatial variation in these trends. To achieve this, we applied a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) to make the best use of available streamflow records from multiple sites and catchment characteristics such as climate, terrain, geology, land use and vegetation. The results show that streamflow trends from tested sites are consistently negative, with magnitudes of up to 2.7% per year relative to the annual average flow. We also find that spatial variability in trends can be best linked to differences in average climatic and terrain conditions. This finding can be used to inform future water planning for consumptive and environmental uses in the MDB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the Australian edition of the Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-sample Studies (CAMELS) series of datasets. CAMELS-AUS (Australia) comprises data for 222 unregulated catchments, combining hydrometeorological time series (streamflow and 18 climatic variables) with 134 attributes related to geology, soil, topography, land cover, anthropogenic influence and hydroclimatology. The CAMELS-AUS catchments have been monitored for decades (more than 85 % have streamflow records longer than 40 years) and are relatively free of large-scale changes, such as significant changes in land use. Rating curve uncertainty estimates are provided for most (75 %) of the catchments, and multiple atmospheric datasets are included, offering insights into forcing uncertainty. This dataset allows users globally to freely access catchment data drawn from Australia's unique hydroclimatology, particularly notable for its large interannual variability. Combined with arid catchment data from the CAMELS datasets for the USA and Chile, CAMELS-AUS constitutes an unprecedented resource for the study of arid-zone hydrology. CAMELS-AUS is freely downloadable from 10.1594/PANGAEA.921850 (Fowler et al., 2020a). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysis of flood and streamflow timing has recently gained prominence as a tool for attribution of climatic changes to flooding. Such studies generally apply circular statistics to the day of maximum flow in a calendar year and use nonparametric linear trend tests to investigate changes in flooding on a local or regional scale. Here we investigate both the center timing of streamflow and the day of maximum flow using a local water year. For each station, the start of the water year is defined as the month of lowest average monthly streamflow. This definition of water year prevents ambiguity in the direction of computed trends and enables flood and streamflow timing to be described by a normal distribution. Using the assumption of normality, we calculate the historical trend in both flood and streamflow timing using linear regression. While shifts in flood and streamflow timing are consistent with climate change and are shifting in a similar direction, shifts in the timing of the annual maxima flood are approximately three times that of streamflow timing. The results here have implications for water resources and environmental management where streamflow and flood timing are critical to planning. The applicability of the normal approximation to flood and streamflow timing will enable future analyses to use parametric statistics. Key Points: The water year definition can change the direction of trends in streamflow timingBy using a local water year, flood timing can often be approximated by a normal distributionShifts in flood timing are systematically greater than those in the center timing of streamflow [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to difficulties in identifying a climate change signal in flood magnitude, it has been suggested that shifts in flood timing, that is, the day of annual streamflow maxima, may be detectable. Here, we use high-quality streamflow, largely free of snowmelt, from 221 catchments across Australia to investigate the influence of shifts in soil moisture and rainfall timing on annual streamflow maxima timing. In tropical areas we find that flood timing is strongly linked to the timing of both rainfall and soil moisture annual maxima. However, in southern Australia flood timing is more correlated with soil moisture maxima than rainfall maxima. The link between flood, soil moisture, and rainfall timing is confounded by event severity: For less extreme events flood timing is more likely to correspond to soil moisture timing, whereas rainfall timing becomes increasingly important as flood severity increases. Using circular regression to investigate nonstationarity, we find that flood timing is shifting to earlier in the year in the tropics and later in the year in the southwest of the continent, consistent with changes in mean and extreme rainfall and shifts in soil moisture timing due to tropical expansion. In southeast Australia, there is evidence that the mechanisms controlling flood seasonality are changing with a reversal of trends post Millennium Drought. Overall, changes in soil moisture timing, compared to changes in rainfall timing, are found to have a greater influence on changes in annual maxima streamflow flood timing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT In central Chile, increasing demand for water and decreasing runoff volumes due to drier conditions have placed catchments in this zone under water stress. However, scarcity of observed data records increases the difficulty of planning future water supply. Instrumental records suggest a reduction in streamflow over the last 56 years. However, this change is not statistically significant and the lack of meteorological stations with long records in this mountainous region hampers a deeper analysis, motivating the use of tree rings to analyse whether these changes are part of a long-term trend. This work represents the first high-elevation runoff reconstruction in Chile using 300 years of tree ring chronologies of Araucaria araucana and Astroceudrus chilensis . The upper part of Biobío river melting season runoff (October-March) and pluvial season runoff (April-September) was reconstructed and analysed to investigate the influence of large-scale climatic drivers on runoff generation, current drought trends and to improve the understanding of climate variability in this region. We obtained positive correlations between the 20-year moving average of reconstructed pluvial season runoff and reconstructed Pacific Decadal Oscillation ( PDO), which is indicative of multi-decadal variability. We also found a negative correlation between the 11-year moving average of reconstructed melting season runoff and the PDO and positive correlations with the Southern Annular Mode ( SAM). Important differences in the runoff variability of the upper and the lower part of the catchment were identified which are in part led by the influence of the large-scale climatic features that drive runoff generation in both regions. We found that the changes observed in the instrumental records are part of multi-decadal cycles led by the PDO and SAM for pluvial season runoff and melting season runoff, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most current long-term (decadal and longer) hydrological predictions implicitly assume that hydrological processes are stationary even under changing climate. However, in practice, we suspect that changing climatic conditions may affect runoff generation processes and cause changes in the rainfall-runoff relationship. In this article, we investigate whether temporary but prolonged (i.e., of the order of a decade) shifts in rainfall result in changes in rainfall-runoff relationships at the catchment scale. Annual rainfall and runoff records from south-eastern Australia are used to examine whether interdecadal climate variability induces changes in hydrological behavior. We test statistically whether annual rainfall-runoff relationships are significantly different during extended dry periods, compared with the historical norm. The results demonstrate that protracted drought led to a significant shift in the rainfall-runoff relationship in ∼44% of the catchment-dry periods studied. The shift led to less annual runoff for a given annual rainfall, compared with the historical relationship. We explore linkages between cases where statistically significant changes occurred and potential explanatory factors, including catchment properties and characteristics of the dry period (e.g., length, precipitation anomalies). We find that long-term drought is more likely to affect transformation of rainfall to runoff in drier, flatter, and less forested catchments. Understanding changes in the rainfall-runoff relationship is important for accurate streamflow projections and to help develop adaptation strategies to deal with multiyear droughts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research into the role of catchment vegetation within the hydrologic cycle has a long history in the hydrologic literature. Relationships between vegetation type and catchment evapotranspiration and runoff were primarily assessed through paired catchment studies during the 20th century. Results from over 200 paired catchment studies from around the world have been reported in the literature. Two constraints on utilizing the results from paired catchment studies in the wider domain have been that the catchment areas studied are generally (1) small (<10 km2) and (2) from a narrow range of climate types. The majority of reported paired catchment studies are located in the USA (∼47%) and Australia (∼27%) and experience mainly temperate (Köppen C) and cold (Köppen D) climate types. In this paper we assess the impact of vegetation type on mean annual evapotranspiration through a large, spatially, and climatically diverse data set of 699 catchments from around the world. These catchments are a subset of 861 unregulated catchments considered for the analysis. Spatially averaged precipitation and temperature data, in conjunction with runoff and land cover information, are analyzed to draw broad conclusions about the vegetation impact on mean annual evapotranspiration. In this analysis any vegetation impact signal is assessed through differences in long-term catchment average actual evapotranspiration, defined as precipitation minus runoff, between catchments grouped by vegetation type. This methodology differs from paired catchment studies where vegetation impact is assessed through streamflow responses to a controlled, within catchment, land cover change. The importance of taking the climate type experienced by the catchments into account when assessing the vegetation impact on evapotranspiration is demonstrated. Tropical and temperate forested catchments are found to have statistically significant higher median evapotranspiration, by about 170 mm and 130 mm, respectively, than non-forested catchments. Unexpectedly, cold forested catchments exhibit significantly lower median evapotranspiration, by about 90 mm, than non-forested catchments. No significant difference was found between median evapotranspiration of temperate evergreen and deciduous forested catchments though sample sizes were small. Temperate evergreen needleleaf forested catchments were found to have significantly higher median evapotranspiration than evergreen broadleaf forested catchments though sample sizes were small. The significant temperate forest versus non-forest difference in median evapotranspiration was found to persist for catchments with areas <1,000 km2, but not for catchments with areas ≥1,000 km2, which is consistent with the suggestion that the vegetation impact on evapotranspiration diminishes as catchment area increases. In summary, the results presented here are consistent with those drawn from reviews of paired catchment results. However, this paper demonstrates the value of a diverse hydroclimatic data set when assessing the vegetation impact on evapotranspiration as the magnitude of impact is observed to vary across climate types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This is the final paper in a series of three dealing with global hydrology based on a world-wide historical data set of monthly and annual streamflow records. In this paper hypothetical reservoir capacity estimates and reservoir-yield performance characteristics are compared between countries and between climate zones. The comparison for each characteristic is based mainly on its median value. For the comparison based on countries, the median value for 17 countries was based on at least 10 rivers, and for a further 19 countries on at least three rivers within the country. For the 30 Köppen climate zones, 13 zones had at least 10 rivers and a further seven zones were represented by at least three rivers. Some conclusions include: rivers in the Sahel region of Africa exhibit larger inter-decadal variances compared with those for other global rivers; the observation that western Canadian rivers display longer run lengths than expected from an AR(1) model may be due to the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation; between countries, storage resilience is strongly positively related to reliability, and dimensionless vulnerability is strongly negatively related to reliability; and, finally, rivers in countries that exhibit low resilience tend to show high dimensionless vulnerability. It was also observed for several rivers in Finland and Sudan, that large natural lakes, not unexpectedly, increase streamflow auto-correlation and thereby reduce a reservoir’s ability to recover quickly following a major deficit. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• We studied changes in recession behaviour of drought-affected catchments. • We detected steeper post-drought recessions in catchments impacted by the drought. • We attributed changes to disconnection of storage and increased transmission losses. Recession analysis is commonly adopted to characterise catchment behaviour, particularly in relation to the role of catchment storage in streamflow production. Recession techniques are data hungry and characterise average behaviour over long periods of recorded data, making them generally unsuitable in transient conditions. Nevertheless, in the context of multi-annual drought, sufficient data may be available to characterise temporal change by examining different subperiods. In this work, we assessed changes in recession behaviour of catchments affected by multi-annual drought in south-eastern Australia, focusing on how changes in recession patterns over time correlate to drought-induced shifts in annual rainfall-runoff relationships. We applied two methods, drawn from the vast methodological literature on recession analysis. They consider different information and entail different assumptions; one is based on average daily recession rates and the other on hourly recession slope plots. Despite the differences, their results are consistent: catchments that exhibited significant changes in rainfall-runoff relationship during the drought also display significantly steeper recessions during and after the drought. Subsequent investigation suggests that only a portion of the increases in recession speed are attributable to increased evaporative demand. Rather, they are likely caused by decreased connectivity between subsurface storage and catchment surface water and increased transmission losses through the streambed. With this work, we demonstrate the usefulness of recession analysis to investigate sources and effects of non-stationary behaviour, providing insights into the impacts of long-term drought on streamflow production and catchment storage dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Annual, monthly and daily streamflows from 99 unregulated rivers across northern Australia were analysed to assess the general surface water resources of the region and their implications for development. The potential for carry-over storages was assessed using the Gould-Dincer Gamma method, which utilises the mean, standard deviation, skewness and lag-one serial correlation coefficient of annual flows. Runs Analysis was used to describe the characteristics of drought in northern Australia and the potential for ‘active’ water harvesting was evaluated by Base Flow Separation, Flow Duration Curves and Spells Analysis. These parameters for northern Australia were compared with data from southern Australia and data for similar Köppen class from around the world. Notably, the variability and seasonality of annual streamflow across northern Australia were observed to be high compared with that of similar Köppen classes from the rest of the world (RoW). The high inter-annual variability of runoff means that carry-over storages in northern Australia will need to be considerably larger than for rivers from the RoW (assuming similar mean annual runoff, yield and reliability). For example, in the three major Köppen zones across the North, it was possible (theoretically) to only exploit approximately 33% (Köppen Aw; n =6), 25% (Köppen BSh; n =12) and 13% (Köppen BWh; n =11) of mean annual streamflow (assuming a hypothetical storage size equal to the mean annual flow). Over 90% of north Australian rivers had a Base Flow Index of less than 0.4, 72% had negative annual lag-one autocorrelation values and in half the rivers sampled greater than 80% of the total flow occurred during the 3-month peak period. These data confirm that flow in the rivers of northern Australia is largely event driven and that the north Australian environment has limited natural storage capacity. Hence, there is relatively little opportunity in many northern rivers to actively harvest water for on-farm storage, particularly under environmental flow rules that stipulate that water can only be extracted during the falling limb of a hydrograph. Streamflow drought severity, the product of drought length and magnitude, was found to be greater in northern Australia than in similar climatic regions of the RoW, due to higher inter-annual variability increasing the drought magnitude over the course of normal drought lengths. The high likelihood of severe drought means that agriculturalists seeking to irrigate from rivers in northern Australia should have especially well developed drought contingency plans. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: This is the second of three papers describing hydrologic analyses of monthly and annual streamflow data for a global set of 729 unregulated rivers with at least 25 years of continuous data. Capacity estimates of hypothetical reservoirs are computed for each river using the Sequent Peak Algorithm (SPA), Behaviour analysis and the Gould–Dincer Gamma procedure. Based on SPA and Behaviour procedures, empirical relationships relating reservoir capacity and yield were developed which accounted for 87–96% of the variance in capacity estimates across the global data set of monthly streamflows. The theoretical Gould–Dincer Gamma procedure was also shown to be a suitable technique to estimate reservoir capacity–yield relationships. It is noted that the three procedures are based on different definitions of supply reliability. Continental variations of the estimated capacities under equivalent conditions are examined. Reservoir performance measures – reliability, resilience and dimensionless vulnerability – are computed and their continental variations described. As a result of these analyses a number of differences are noted about the performance of reservoirs across continental regions. For example, the median continental reservoir capacity as a ratio of the mean annual flow varied by a factor of 9 across the continental regions. Furthermore, based on the reliability metric as an example of reservoir performance, high reliabilities occur in the South Pacific and Europe, slightly less reliable systems in North and South America, lower still in northern Africa, followed by Australia and the lowest value in southern Africa. This distribution follows inversely with the coefficient of variation of annual streamflow between continents. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Annual and monthly streamflows for 729 rivers from a global data set are used to assess the adequacy of five techniques to estimate the relationship between reservoir capacity, target draft (or yield) and reliability of supply. The techniques examined are extended deficit analysis (EDA), behaviour analysis, sequent peak algorithm (SPA), Vogel and Stedinger empirical (lognormal) method and Phien empirical (Gamma) method. In addition, a technique to adjust SPA using annual flows to account for within-year variations is assessed. Of our nine conclusions the key ones are, firstly, EDA is a useful procedure to estimate streamflow deficits and, hence, reservoir capacity for a given reliability of supply. Secondly, the behaviour method is suitable to estimate storage but has limitations if an annual time step is adopted. Thirdly, in contrast to EDA and behaviour which are based on time series of flows, if only annual statistics are available, the Vogel and Stedinger empirical method compares favorably with more detailed simulation approaches. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]