1. Integrated care in patients with atrial fibrillation- a predictive heterogeneous treatment effect analysis of the ALL-IN trial.
- Author
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Trinks-Roerdink EM, Geersing GJ, van den Dries CJ, Hemels MEW, Rienstra M, van Gelder IC, van Smeden M, van Klaveren D, Kent DM, Rutten FH, and van Doorn S
- Subjects
- Aged, Humans, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Atrial Fibrillation drug therapy, Delivery of Health Care, Integrated, Stroke etiology
- Abstract
Introduction: Integrated care is effective in reducing all-cause mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) in primary care, though time and resource intensive. The aim of the current study was to assess whether integrated care should be directed at all AF patients equally., Methods: The ALL-IN trial (n = 1,240 patients, median age 77 years) was a cluster-randomized trial in which primary care practices were randomized to provide integrated care or usual care to AF patients aged 65 years and older. Integrated care comprised of (i) anticoagulation monitoring, (ii) quarterly checkups and (iii) easy-access consultation with cardiologists. For the current analysis, cox proportional hazard analysis with all clinical variables from the CHA2DS2-VASc score was used to predict all-cause mortality in the ALL-IN trial. Subsequently, the hazard ratio and absolute risk reduction were plotted as a function of this predicted mortality risk to explore treatment heterogeneity., Results: Under usual care, after a median of 2 years follow-up the absolute risk of all-cause mortality in the highest-risk quarter was 31.0%, compared to 4.6% in the lowest-risk quarter. On the relative scale, there was no evidence of treatment heterogeneity (p for interaction = 0.90). However, there was substantial treatment heterogeneity on the absolute scale: risk reduction in the lowest risk- quarter of risk 3.3% (95% CI -0.4% - 7.0) compared to 12.0% (95% CI 2.7% - 22.0) in the highest risk quarter., Conclusion: While the relative degree of benefit from integrated AF care is similar in all patients, patients with a high all-cause mortality risk have a greater benefit on an absolute scale and should therefore be prioritized when implementing integrated care., Competing Interests: I have read the journal’s policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: G.J. Geersing, F.H. Rutten, and M.E.W. Hemels report unrestricted institutional grants for performing research in the field of atrial fibrillation from Boehringer-Ingelheim, Bayer Healthcare, BMS Pfizer and Daiichi Sankyo. I.C. van Gelder reports consultancy fees from Boston, BMS and Bayer to the institution, unrestricted research grants from the Netherlands Cardiovascular Research Initiative, unrestricted research grant from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement: EHRA-PATHS (945260). M. Rienstra reports Consultancy fees from Bayer, Microport, InCarda Therapeutics to the institution, an unrestricted research grant from ZonMW and the Dutch Heart Foundation; DECISION project 848090001, unrestricted research grants from the Netherlands Cardiovascular Research Initiative: an initiative with support of the Dutch Heart Foundation; RACE V (CVON 2014–9), RED-CVD (CVON2017-11), an unrestricted research grant from Top Sector Life Sciences & Health to the Dutch Heart Foundation (PPP Allowance; CVON-AI (2018B017)), and an unrestricted research grant from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement; EHRA-PATHS (945260). S. van Doorn reports an unrestricted institutional grant for performing research in the field of stroke diagnosis from Stoffels-Hornstra. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials., (Copyright: © 2023 Trinks-Roerdink et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)
- Published
- 2023
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