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Objectives: To investigate, in anti-CCP antibody-positive individuals with musculoskeletal symptoms but no clinical synovitis (CCP+ at-risk), the additional value of US for the prediction of inflammatory arthritis. Furthermore, to define a concise US protocol for feasible risk prediction., Methods: Demographic and clinical data were collected in 417 CCP+ at-risk (Leeds CCP cohort) with a baseline US scan assessing synovitis and bone erosions in 36 joints, and a follow-up duration ≥24 months. Multivariable binary regression models for inflammatory arthritis development at 24 months evaluated routine clinical variables associated with inflammatory arthritis alone ('clinical' model) and combined with a 36-joint US scanning protocol ('clinical-US extended' model). A 'clinical-US short' model was also developed., Results: At 24 months, 92/417 (22.1%) CCP+ at-risk developed inflammatory arthritis (median time 7 months, interquartile range 3-12). The 'clinical-US extended' model performed better than the 'clinical' model [area under the curve (AUC) 0.788 vs AUC 0.731, respectively, P < 0.001] with an odds ratio for inflammatory arthritis development of 3.18 (95% CI 1.80-5.63) for US synovitis and 2.54 (95% CI 1.21-5.37) for bone erosions. The 'clinical-US short' model, which retained the wrists, knees and MTP5 joints, performed better (AUC 0.782) than the 'clinical' model (P < 0.001) and similarly (difference in Akaike information criteria <2) to the 'clinical-US extended' model., Conclusions: US provides valuable information for predicting progression to inflammatory arthritis in CCP+ individuals both alone and in addition to clinical variables. US synovitis was associated with a 3-fold increase risk of inflammatory arthritis development. A concise US protocol of six joints provides clinically feasible risk prediction in CCP+ at-risk., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.)

Background: Inflammatory arthritis (IA) is an immune-related condition defined by the presence of clinical synovitis. Its most common form is rheumatoid arthritis., Objective: To develop scores for predicting IA in at-risk persons using multidimensional biomarkers., Design: Prospective observational cohort study., Setting: Single-center, Leeds, United Kingdom., Participants: Persons with new musculoskeletal symptoms, a positive test result for anticitrullinated protein antibodies, and no clinical synovitis and followed for 48 weeks or more or until IA occurred., Measurements: A simple score was developed using logistic regression, and a comprehensive score was developed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox proportional hazards regression. Internal validation with bootstrapping was estimated, and a decision curve analysis was done., Results: Of 455 participants, 32.5% (148 of 455) developed IA, and 15.4% (70 of 455) developed it within 1 year. The simple score identified 249 low-risk participants with a false negative rate of 5% (and 206 high-risk participants with a false-positive rate of 72%). The comprehensive score identified 119 high-risk participants with a false-positive rate of 29% (and 336 low-risk participants with a false-negative rate of 19%); 40% of high-risk participants developed IA within 1 year and 71% within 5 years., Limitations: External validation is required. Recruitment occurred over 13 years, with lower rates of IA in later years. There was geographic variation in laboratory testing and recruitment availability., Conclusion: The simple score identified persons at low risk for IA who were less likely to need secondary care. The comprehensive score identified high-risk persons who could benefit from risk stratification and preventive measures. Both scores may be useful in clinical care and should also be useful in clinical trials., Primary Funding Source: National Institute for Health and Care Research Leeds Biomedical Research Centre., Competing Interests: Disclosures: Disclosures can be viewed at www.acponline.org/authors/icmje/ConflictOfInterestForms.do?msNum=M23-0272.

Objectives: To investigate whether anti-CCP2-positive at-risk individuals with musculoskeletal (MSK) symptoms but without clinical synovitis (CCP2+ at-risk) develop US subclinical synovitis before inflammatory arthritis and if US subclinical synovitis can be predicted., Methods: First, US scans of CCP2+ at-risk individuals who developed inflammatory arthritis ('progressors') were reviewed for subclinical synovitis prior to inflammatory arthritis development. Patients in whom the pre-progression US scan was negative but the scan was conducted >6 months before progression were excluded. Subsequently, regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of US synovitis in CCP2+ at-risk individuals without baseline US abnormalities who had one or more longitudinal US scan and a complete dataset., Results: US subclinical synovitis was detected in one or more scan in 75 of 97 progressors (77.3%) {median time to inflammatory arthritis development from first evidence of US synovitis 26.5 weeks [interquartile range (IQR) 7-60]}, in whom one or more scan was available, excluding those with a negative scan >6 months from inflammatory arthritis development (n = 38). In 220 CCP2+ at-risk individuals with normal baseline US scans, who had one or more longitudinal US scan and a complete dataset, US synovitis was detected in 69/220 (31.4%) [median time to first developing US synovitis 56.4 weeks (IQR 33.0-112.0)]. In the multivariable analysis, only anti-CCP3 antibodies were predictive for the development of US synovitis [odds ratio 4.75 (95% CI 1.97, 11.46); P < 0.01]., Conclusions: In anti-CCP2+ at-risk individuals, a stage of subclinical synovitis usually precedes the development of inflammatory arthritis. Anti-CCP2+/CCP3+ individuals without clinical or US subclinical synovitis may represent the optimal window of opportunity for intervention to prevent joint disease., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.)

Background: Individuals at risk of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) demonstrate systemic autoimmunity in the form of anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies (ACPA). MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are implicated in established RA. This study aimed to (1) compare miRNA expression between healthy individuals and those at risk of and those that develop RA, (2) evaluate the change in expression of miRNA from "at-risk" to early RA and (3) explore whether these miRNAs could inform a signature predictive of progression from "at-risk" to RA., Methods: We performed global profiling of 754 miRNAs per patient on a matched serum sample cohort of 12 anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (CCP) + "at-risk" individuals that progressed to RA. Each individual had a serum sample from baseline and at time of detection of synovitis, forming the matched element. Healthy controls were also studied. miRNAs with a fold difference/fold change of four in expression level met our primary criterion for selection as candidate miRNAs. Validation of the miRNAs of interest was conducted using custom miRNA array cards on matched samples (baseline and follow up) in 24 CCP+ individuals; 12 RA progressors and 12 RA non-progressors., Results: We report on the first study to use matched serum samples and a comprehensive miRNA array approach to identify in particular, three miRNAs (miR-22, miR-486-3p, and miR-382) associated with progression from systemic autoimmunity to RA inflammation. MiR-22 demonstrated significant fold difference between progressors and non-progressors indicating a potential biomarker role for at-risk individuals., Conclusions: This first study using a cohort with matched serum samples provides important mechanistic insights in the transition from systemic autoimmunity to inflammatory disease for future investigation, and with further evaluation, might also serve as a predictive biomarker.

Objective: To compare the efficacy of etanercept (ETN) and methotrexate (MTX) versus MTX monotherapy for remission induction in patients with early inflammatory arthritis., Methods: In a 78-week multicentre randomised placebo-controlled superiority trial, 110 DMARD-naïve patients with early clinical synovitis (≥1 tender and swollen joint, and within 3 months of diagnosis) and either rheumatoid factor, anticitrullinated protein antibodies or shared epitope positive were randomised 1:1 to receive MTX+ETN or MTX+placebo (PBO) for 52 weeks. Injections (ETN or PBO) were stopped in all patients at week 52. In those with no tender or swollen joints (NTSJ) for >26 weeks, injections were stopped early. If patients had NTSJ >12 weeks after stopping the injections, MTX was weaned. The primary endpoint was NTSJ at week 52., Results: No statistically significant difference was seen for the primary endpoint (NTSJ at week 52 (32.5% vs 28.1% [adjusted OR 1.32 (0.56 to 3.09), p=0.522]) in the MTX+ETN and MTX+PBO groups, respectively). The secondary endpoints did not differ between groups at week 52 or 78. Exploratory analyses showed a higher proportions of patients with DAS28-CRP<2.6 in the MTX+ETN group at week 2 (38.5% vs 9.2%, adjusted OR 8.87 (2.53 to 31.17), p=0.001) and week 12 (65.1% vs 43.8%, adjusted OR 2.49 (1.12 to 5.54), p=0.026)., Conclusions: In this group of patients with early inflammatory arthritis, almost a third had no tender, swollen joints after 1 year. MTX+ETN was not superior to MTX monotherapy in achieving this outcome. Clinical responses, however, including DAS28-CRP<2.6, were achieved earlier with MTX+ETN combination therapy., Trial Registration Number: The EMPIRE trial is registered on the following trial registries: Eudract-2005-005467-29; ISRCTN 55428162 (http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN55428162/EMPIRE). The full trial protocol can be obtained from the corresponding author.

Objective: Arthritis activity assessments in psoriatic arthritis (PsA) have traditionally relied on tender and swollen joint counts, but in rheumatoid arthritis, multiple studies have demonstrated subclinical inflammation using modern imaging. The aim of this study was to compare clinical examination and ultrasound (US) findings in an early PsA cohort., Methods: Forty-nine disease-modifying antirheumatic drug-naive patients with recent-onset PsA (median disease duration 10 months) underwent gray-scale (GS) and power Doppler (PD) US of 40 joints plus tender and swollen joint counts of 68/66 joints. GS and PD were scored on a 0-3 semiquantitative scale for each joint. Clinically active joints were defined as tender and/or swollen and US active joints were defined as a GS score ≥2 and/or a PD score ≥1., Results: The most common sites for subclinical synovitis were the wrist (30.6%), knee (21.4%), metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joints (26.5-33.7%), and metacarpophalangeal joints (10.2-19.4%). Excluding MTP joints and ankles, 37 (75.5%) of 49 patients had subclinical synovitis with a median of 3 (interquartile range [IQR] 1-4) joints involved. In contrast, clinical overestimation of synovitis occurred most commonly at the shoulder (38%) and ankle (28.6%). Twelve of 49 patients were classified clinically as having oligoarthritis; of these, subclinical synovitis identified 8 (75%) as having polyarthritis with an increase in their median joint count from 3 (IQR 1-4) to 6 (IQR 5-7)., Conclusion: This study has demonstrated that subclinical synovitis, as identified by US, is very common in early PsA and led to the majority of oligoarthritis patients being reclassified as having polyarthritis. Further research is required into the relationship of such subclinical synovitis to structural progression., (© 2014 The Authors. Arthritis Care & Research is published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Rheumatology.)