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• A hybrid game theory and system dynamics model of electricity supply is proposed. • Optimal electricity generation mix is determined in different games. • The share of green energy generation will reach about 28% by 2040 in Nash model. • Water and gas use in Stackelberg-cooperation model decrease by 18.4 and 16.5%. One criteria for the success in achieving sustainable development is to supply electricity by considering the diversity of generation technology. Also, the consumption of fossil fuels is considered as a major challenge for sustainable development. Relying heavily on fossil resources for electricity generation and the growing trend in emissions is one of the serious problems of developing countries. In this research, the sustainable growth of Iran's electricity industry in the short and long term time horizons is investigated using three game theory models in a system dynamic model. The competition, cooperation and profits of electricity suppliers as well as the government's role are modeled. Carbon dioxide emissions, water and natural gas consumption are also calculated. The results show the amount of carbon dioxide emissions, water and gas consumption in the Stackelberg and cooperation model decrease by 19.3%, 18.4% and 16.5%, respectively, compared to the continuation of the current trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electricity subsidy is allocated by many governments to help access electricity, support domestic industries and achieve social objectives. However, by distorting price signals, problems such as over consumption, low efficiency and investment shortage are attributed to this policy. Thus, many countries want to reduce or remove subsidies. A simulation-based optimization model using system dynamics approach is presented to determine optimal prices for electricity demand sectors and power plants' fuels under demand scenarios considering objectives of Iran's power sector stakeholders, namely government, electricity consumers and electricity producers. The model uses the prices of energy carriers determined based on economic, social and environmental criteria to simulate their impact on supply and demand of electricity, environmental emissions, water consumption and allocated subsidies. Simulation results indicate the household sector should have considerable higher prices in all scenarios. Moreover, with 57% decline in allotted funds, a complete removal of subsidies occurs in case 4. It is shown electricity export reaches 11% of total consumption. Also, CO 2 emission and water use respectively decreases by 17.2% and 18.1%. The electricity supply reaches 61% more than the current value and average efficiency of thermal plants reaches 58.31% by 2040, compared respectively with −12% and 42.7%, in case 1. [Display omitted] • A simulation-based optimization model of electricity supply and demand is proposed. • Optimal prices in demand sectors are determined based on stakeholders' objectives. • Considering all criteria, CO 2 emission and water use decrease by 17.2% and 18.1%. • In case of removal of subsidies, power export reaches to 11% of total consumption. • System sustainability and power plants efficiency increase due to optimal prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ensuring sustainable electricity supply is a key issue facing decision-makers. Due to its impact on system reliability, balancing supply and demand is essential. Electricity subsidy policies in many countries have led to high consumption and low power plant efficiency, and may cause an imbalance in the future. This research analyzes different electricity subsystems using system dynamics to investigate how and when low energy prices lead to an unstable situation. Simulation results using Iran's data show demand surpasses supply with a continuation of current trends. However, when the prices increase 90%, demand is met, and subsidy decreases by about 20%. • A system dynamics model of electricity supply and demand is presented. • The behavior of key variables in four subsystems is simulated under price policies. • The results show that power supply fails to meet demand fully with current trend. • In case of 90% rise in power and gas prices, demand is wholly met in all scenarios. • In case of 90% rise in the prices, the allocated subsidy decreases by about 20%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]