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The waste rubbers used as partly aggregates in porous elastic road surface (PERS) mixture are more easily to be attacked by the heat and oxygen during the service process. This study aims to investigate the thermal decomposition kinetics of waste rubbers in PERS and propose a method to predict the lifetime of waste rubbers. Firstly, the PERS mixtures containing unaged and aged waste rubbers were prepared with void ratio of 25 % and rubber particle content of 25 %. Then, from the water residual results, it can be seen that the residual stability and freezing-thawing splitting strength ratio of PERS mixtures containing waste rubbers being aged for 7 days significantly decreased to 65 % and 59 % compared with that of the unaged PERS mixture, which cannot be used as pavement. The thermal decomposition kinetics of waste rubbers fixed with the first-order reaction, which was related with the road performance of PERS mixtures by the mass loss rate of 17 % after being aged for 7 days. Based on that, the lifetime prediction equation of waste rubbers was established. It is expected that this work provides a new strategy for predicting the lifetime of waster rubbers in PERS pavement during the service process. • Water stability of PERS mixtures decreased by the thermal-aging of waste rubbers. • The PERS mixtures after being aged for 7 days was not used as pavement. • Thermal decomposition of waste rubbers fixed with the first-order reaction. • A lifetime prediction method of waste rubber at different temperature was proposed. • The lifetime prediction of waste rubbers was the equation lg τ = 4183 T − 1 − 7.701. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]