Search

The demand for complex equipment aftermarket parts is mostly sporadic, showing typical intermittent characteristics as a whole, resulting in the evolution law of a single demand series having insufficient information, which restricts the prediction effect of existing methods. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a prediction method of intermittent feature adaptation from the perspective of transfer learning. Firstly, to extract the intermittent features of the demand series, an intermittent time series domain partitioning algorithm is proposed by mining the demand occurrence time and demand interval information in the series, then constructing the metrics, and using a hierarchical clustering algorithm to divide all the series into different sub-source domains. Secondly, the intermittent and temporal characteristics of the sequence are combined to construct a weight vector, and the learning of common information between domains is accomplished by weighting the distance of the output features of each cycle between domains. Finally, experiments are conducted on the actual after-sales datasets of two complex equipment manufacturing enterprises. Compared with various prediction methods, the method in this paper can effectively predict future demand trends, and the prediction's stability and accuracy are significantly improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the actual maintenance of manufacturing enterprises, abnormal changes in after-sale parts demand data often make the inventory strategies unreasonable. Due to the intermittent and small-scale characteristics of demand sequences, it is difficult to accurately identify the anomalies in such sequences using current anomaly detection algorithms. To solve this problem, this paper proposes an unsupervised anomaly detection method for intermittent time series. First, a new abnormal fluctuation similarity matrix is built by calculating the squared coefficient of variation and the maximum information coefficient from the macroscopic granularity. The abnormal fluctuation sequence can then be adaptively screened by using agglomerative hierarchical clustering. Second, the demand change feature and interval feature of the abnormal sequence are constructed and fed into the support vector data description model to perform hypersphere training. Then, the unsupervised abnormal point location detection is realized at the micro-granularity level from the abnormal sequence. Comparative experiments are carried out on the actual demand data of after-sale parts of two large manufacturing enterprises. The results show that, compared with the current representative anomaly detection methods, the proposed approach can effectively identify the abnormal fluctuation position in the intermittent sequence of small samples, and also obtain better detection results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]