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Regime shifts are difficult-to-reverse transitions that occur when an ecosystem reorganizes around a new set of self-reinforcing feedbacks. Regime shifts are predicted to occur when the intensity of some exogenous driver variable, such as temperature, annual harvest rate, or nutrient addition rate, gradually approaches and crosses a threshold value, initiating a transition to an alternative state. However, many driver variables now change rapidly as presses or pulses, not gradually, requiring new conceptual frameworks for understanding and predicting regime shifts. We argue that identifying and controlling regime shifts in response to presses and pulses will require a greater focus on the duration, not just the intensity, of changes in driver variables. In ecosystems with slower dynamics, transitions to an alternative state can take years to decades and as a result, a driver press with an intensity capable of resulting in a regime shift over long time spans may fail to cause a regime shift when applied for shorter durations. We illustrate these ideas using simulations of local-scale alternative stable state models and preliminary evidence from long-term grazing and eutrophication experiments. The simulations also suggest that small changes in the duration of driver presses or pulses can determine whether an ecosystem recovers to its original state. These insights may extend to larger scales. In spatially extended simulations that included patchiness, spatial heterogeneity, and spatial connectivity, all patches recovered to their original state after shorter presses. However, once press duration exceeded a threshold, growing proportions of the landscape shifted to an alternative state as press duration increased. We observed similar patchy transitions in a catchment-scale experiment that reinstated frequent fires approximately halfway through a regime shift from grassland to shrubland, initiated by fire suppression. In both the local- and larger-scale models, the threshold duration needed to elicit regime shifts decreased as press intensity increased or when factors counteracting regime shifts weakened. These multiple lines of evidence suggest that conceptualizing regime shifts as an interactive function of the intensity and duration of driver changes will increase understanding of the varying effects of driver presses, pulses, and cycles on ecosystem dynamics.

Abrupt ecological changes are, by definition, those that occur over short periods of time relative to typical rates of change for a given ecosystem. The potential for such changes is growing due to anthropogenic pressures, which challenges the resilience of societies and ecosystems. Abrupt ecological changes are difficult to diagnose because they can arise from a variety of circumstances, including rapid changes in external drivers (e.g., climate, or resource extraction), nonlinear responses to gradual changes in drivers, and interactions among multiple drivers and disturbances. We synthesize strategies for identifying causes of abrupt ecological change and highlight instances where abrupt changes are likely. Diagnosing abrupt changes and inferring causation are increasingly important as society seek to adapt to rapid, multifaceted environmental changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This review synthesizes evidence that altered fire frequency drives discontinuous ecosystem transitions from mesic grasslands to shrublands or woodlands in the Central Great Plains, USA., Long-term fire manipulations reveal that grassland to shrubland transitions are triggered when fire-free intervals increase from 1-3 years to ≥ 3-8 years, and longer fire returns (˜10 years or more) result in transitions to woodlands. Grazing and soil properties alter these fire thresholds., Grassland to shrubland transitions are abrupt and exhibit nonlinear relationships between driver and state variables. Transitions to shrublands and woodlands exhibit hysteresis, where reintroducing frequent fires does not reverse transitions in management-relevant time-scales (decades)., Nonlinear transitions and hysteresis emerge because grasses generate positive feedbacks with fire that create strong demographic barriers for shrub and tree establishment. Fire-free intervals allow shrubs and trees to reach a size sufficient to survive fire, reproduce and disrupt the fire feedback loop through competition., Synthesis. Mesic grasslands, shrublands and woodlands constitute self-reinforcing states (alternative attractors) separated by critical fire frequency thresholds. Even without major shifts in climate, altered fire frequency can produce dramatic state changes, highlighting the importance of fire for predicting future ecosystem states. Local management should focus on prevention of unwanted transitions rather than post hoc restoration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystems with alternative attractors are susceptible to abrupt regime shifts that are often difficult to predict and reverse. In this study, we quantify multiple system dynamics to determine whether the transition of mesic grassland to shrubland, a widespread phenomenon, represents a linear reversible process, a nonlinear but reversible threshold process, or a transition between alternative attractors that is nonlinear and prone to hysteresis. Using a 28-yr data set with annual resolution and extensive spatial replication, we found that shrub cover is correlated with distinct thresholds of fire and C4 grass cover, resulting in temporal bimodality of shrub cover and abrupt shifts of shrub cover despite gradual changes in grass cover. These abrupt increases in shrub cover are the most rapid ever reported in grasslands, and illustrate internal thresholds that separate grasslands and shrublands. Nonlinear transitions from low to high shrub cover were also closely associated with positive feedback mechanisms that alter fire and competition (r² = 0.65), suggesting that grasslands and shrublands could show hysteresis, and by definition exist as alternative attractors. Thus, the response of this ecosystem to anthropogenic activity should tend to be rapid, nonlinear, and perhaps difficult to reverse. Regime shifts in this mesic grassland were predictable: we found that grassland and shrubland attractors were differentiated by critical thresholds of ~50-70% grass cover, 5-10% shrub cover, and a fire return interval of ~3 yr. These thresholds may provide adaptive potential for managing nonlinear behavior in socio-ecological systems in a changing environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]