Search

The empirical results from a forecasting competition show that the unrestricted vector autoregressive model is likely to generate the most accurate forecasts of international tourist expenditure in Denmark. This model is therefore estimated (using data for 1969–99) and is used to generate tourism expenditure forecasts for Denmark to 2010. The employment requirements (direct, indirect and induced) associated with these expenditure forecasts are then estimated using an input–output model. The forecasts of employment demands are shown across all industrial sectors, and linked to qualifications data in respect of the labour force. The major impacts of foreign tourist expenditure on employment in Denmark occur in the retail, hotel and restaurant sectors. Foreign tourist expenditure is also significantly associated with graduate employment.

The revolutionary innovations in themed entertainment attractions, starting with the 'Bakken', north of Copenhagen, in 1583 and given modern form by Disney at Anaheim, California in 1955 have spread outwards through successive imitation and adaptation by the amusement park industry. Developments have been slower in the Nordic region due to small populations and seasonality, tending to focus on the refurbishment of traditional parks. This paper reviews some of the historical aspects of theme parks and then, with the aid of case examples, goes on to model key design, economic and financial aspects in developing such attractions in a Nordic context. Concepts of creativity and issues of failure are examined, in order to define the boundaries of what may be currently considered good practice to minimize the downside risks that can result in financial, if not project, collapse. Finally, prospects for the future are discussed.

In recent times the Business Council of the World Tourism Organisation has been concerned at the escalation in the number of tourism taxes and the rates at which tourism is taxed. There is a justifiable suspicion that governments are looking at the burgeoning tourist industry not from the rational principles of taxation, but simply as a new revenue source, particularly as foreign tourists are not voters in the destination. The tourism industry has to cope with specific taxes, such as a departure tax, and general taxation, such as value added tax (VAT). This article reviews the principles by which tourism should be taxed and focuses on the different rates of VAT in a European context. Using Denmark as a case example, a simulation exercise is carried out to examine the hotel sector's claim that a more efficient and equitable economic solution would result from cutting VAT.

One of the most discussed paradigms in the literature on destination development is the lifecycle model. Although varieties of lifecycle paths have been described, they have been drawn up without consideration of the underlying generation processes. This article examines the time path of tourist growth patterns that could give rise to such a cycle and in doing so, permits the exact demarcation of the five stages of the lifecycle. The model is tested using long run time series and the overall conclusion is that the restrictions imposed by the aggregation process limit the resort cycle paradigm, in a quantitative context, to being no more than a statistical caricature of the real world.

Commencing in the late 1980s in Europe, regional development policy has seen a switch of emphasis from large automatic grants to attract inward investment projects, towards small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and indigenous growth. From a tourism perspective, this blends well with models of community tourism development, particularly in peripheral areas. The task of co‐ordinating local actions usually falls on public agencies, but development is often made doubly difficult because there is a dichotomy between the market stance of tourist bureaux and the supply‐oriented approach of small traders. Such is the case of the restaurant industry on Bornholm, which fails to match the expectations of the visitors in their menu structures. This article analyses the extent of the gap between demand and supply in terms of the visitors’ experiences.

There is considerable interest both across Europe and America concerning how to reprocess old mines and quarries workings. This article looks at the experiences of the tourism authorities in South Wales in setting up mines and industrial remains as tourist attractions and the key issues involved. The focus is on the Big Pit Mining Museum in Blaenafon, South Wales, which was conceived in 1979 and established in 1983. As a commercial tourist attraction, the museum was fated to struggle for its existence, but as time has passed and the memories of coal have diminished, so the mine has acquired a growing heritage value of its own, just like any antique item. Thus, in May 1999, it was agreed that the state-run National Museums and Galleries of Wales should absorb the museum to conserve it for posterity.

The growing interest in community tourism development is paralleled within the European Union by a switch of emphasis away from large automatic grants to attract inward investment projects, towards small firms, and indigenous development. The promotion of small and medium enterprises by the union is on the basis that these firms provide the community underpinnings for entrepreneurship and job creation. Taking the experience of Wales as an example, the full-time equivalent employment out-turns from 216 projects are analyzed to assess job creation performance against targets. On the whole, the small and medium tourism enterprises in question were either in line with or better than their employment targets.

For all cold water resorts in peripheral areas, it is the ‘dream’ of the marketing department to expand the season but very few have succeeded. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the possibilities using the Danish Baltic Island of Bornholm as a case example. For the past three years, departing visitors have been surveyed as part of a research programme, ‘Tourism in the peripheral areas of Europe’, with the purpose of analysing tourism demand. Particular attention was given to visitors in the off-season. The sad conclusion is that the findings indicate no realistic possibilities for increasing the off-season market. The visitors in the off-season to Bornholm are mostly visiting friends and relatives, and repeat visitors with a special love for the island. The Bornholm tourism product is the nature, the atmosphere and the landscape. Even though the product is still there in autumn, winter and spring, the holidaymakers prefer to enjoy it in sunshine. Consequently, the tourism businesses, with hotels as an important exception, have adjusted to the short season. A strategy for broadening the season would imply dramatic changes in the operation of the tourist product out of season. Even then, it would be a very uncertain goal.

The Wales Tourist Board is a non-departmental tourism public body that has product development powers. Within a global sum set by its sponsoring body, the Welsh Office, it influences the tourist product through a variety of initiatives. By far the most ambitious has been the Local Enterprise and Development scheme (LEAD). From start to finish, the Board has used Lead to combine the skills of consultants, academic researchers, public authorities, the public sector and the local community to improve the destination product in different parts of Wales. This paper looks at the development of the LEAD scheme, including the Board's approach to project evaluation, and examines the lessons learnt from it.

In April 1995, the VAT Working Group of the British Tourist Authority (BTA) presented its report on the economic effects of changing the rate of VAT on the UK tourism and leisure industry. The report was prepared by Touche Ross. This article reviews and summarizes the issues raised by the BTA Report as a matter of general interest for the readers of this journal. The author is grateful to the BTA for giving permission to reproduce parts of the Report and to Michael Nevin of Touche Rosse who undertook the task of preparing the report.

Around the world, expansion in tourism has resulted in the industry being recognized as a development option that few countries are prepared to ignore. Governments of all persuasions offer a range of investment incentives that, ideally, should be targeted at produc ing a balanced development of tourism to meet the many needs of visitors and be consistent with policy objectives. This article examines the nature of investment incentives, their impact, and some methods to evaluate their worth.

Considered as part of the rewards system for staff working in the restaurant trade are perks arising from ‘fiddles’ and ‘knock-offs’. Such activities are frequently tolerated by the management up to certain limits, but where control is lax these practices may seriously affect the viability of the business. The differing impacts of fiddles and knockoffs on the income statement of the restaurant are considered and comparisons are made as to their relative significance.

The reform of the European Structural Funds over the period 1986–1988 saw a move away from the Community funding individual projects towards a multi-annual programming approach. The European Regional Development Fund is still the main instrument for regional intervention. The economics of this form of grant-in-aid is considered together with the methodology of appraising projects for submission.

There have been many area studies measuring tourism income multipliers and these have been well covered in a number of review articles. However, the treatment of income is not always made explicit and the term is only loosely defined. This article addresses the issue of personal taxation and social insurance contributions, and shows that the stage at which they are deducted as leakages can have very different effects on the resulting multiplier values.

In planning or project appraisal, the methodology and concepts employed by the major international agencies in their project manuals are not always consistent with those employed in the tourism industry itself. This paper shows how we might integrate the concepts used by the project manuals into the analysis of tourism as a development sector.

Employment creation is an important consideration in grant-aiding tourism projects. Drawing on the results of 140 tourism projects that were given English Tourist Board support, this article evaluates their performance by comparing promised employment to jobs actually created and analyses the forecasting errors.

The authors expound the concept of Profit Sensitivity Analysis (PSA) which examines alterations in the operating accounts of a business solely in terms of their impact on profits. They go on to outline the theoretical foundations of the concept and then indicate a variety of applications.

The author describes the theory and empirical estimation of shadow prices along the lines indicated in the UNIDO manual, Guidelines for Project Evaluation and uses Cyprus as a case study. The shadow prices estimated are for those categories into which the UNIDO manual recommends that all the outpus and inputs of a project should be decomposed, namely, foreign exchange, domestic materials, labour (of varying skills), and transfer payments. Finally two examples are given to illustrate the practical applications to shadow prices.

In many cases the competition is such that when catering contractors bid for outside events, they are simply price-takers. But opportunities do exist in the area of hospitality catering and organized functions to build up to a price. Three different pricing strategies were considered with respect to particular company objectives to arrive at an optimal solution.