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Does a country need good institutions to use tourism as an economic development activator? From a sample of non-organisation for economic co-operation and development countries, this article aims to assess the feasibility of tourism-led growth in different institutional settings. The results not only suggest that a tourism shock is good for gross domestic product growth but that inclusive institutions enhance the ability of a country to convert tourism into growth. It also emphasises that beyond tourism that remains a major transmission channel for growth, inclusive countries largely benefit from growth in their neighbouring countries. They are more able to import economic growth from abroad.

Many regions and countries seek to develop their tourism industry as a strategy for economic growth. A growing body of research supports the hypothesis of tourism-led growth. This paper contributes to the existing literature in two ways. First, it proposes a new mechanism for sustained tourism-led growth, emphasising the crucial importance of the market segment in which a tourist destination wishes to operate. Second, it shows how a destination that is experiencing stagnation can temporarily boost its performance and improve its long-term welfare by reorienting the supply from a highly price-sensitive mass tourism product towards a more selective one of the luxury tourism. This change in focus is discussed in the light of the experience of two Spanish archipelagos. The empirical results obtained highlight the evident success of the reorientation strategy in one of these cases. The model provides theoretical support for the implementation of tourist product restructuring policies in economies that are reliant on tourism.

In a context in which the tourism industry is jeopardised by the COVID-19 pandemic, and potentially by other pandemics in the future, the capacity to produce accurate forecasts is crucial to stakeholders and policy-makers. This paper attempts to forecast the recovery of tourism demand for 2021 in 20 destinations worldwide. An original scenario-based judgemental forecast based on the definition of a Covid-19 Risk Exposure index is proposed to overcome the limitations of traditional forecasting methods. Three scenarios are proposed, and ex ante forecasts are generated for each destination using a baseline forecast, the developed index and a judgemental approach. The limitations and potential developments of this new forecasting model are then discussed.

No effort has been made to connect good governance and the performance of the tourism industry at the country level. We take a first step to provide empirical evidence of this positive effect. Based on a data set of 100 countries between 2002 and 2012, the impact of the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) on the tourism industry is analyzed, controlling also for demographic, economic and environmental factors. Using a dynamic panel data approach, we highlight the role played by good governance in explaining differences in countries’ tourism performances, measured here as inbound tourism expenditures per inhabitant. We also observe that the impact of WGI is even higher among low-openness countries.

In this paper, we build a standard model of optimal growth, with exogenous population growth and technical change, for an economy specialised in tourism. Assuming that the production of tourism is pollution generating and that tourists are pollution adverse, we establish propositions regarding long-term growth and sustainability of tourism. We show that mass tourism only is associated with high growth rates and that in general, mass tourism is not sustainable. To sum up, our model shows that high growth sustainable tourism does not actually exists.

The aim of this paper is to answer a simple question: Are fluctuations, and especially temporary slow-downs or decline, in frequentation always harmful for a tourism destination? I propose a simple theoretical model for a nature-based destination, in which the willingness to pay (WTP) of a tourist for the destination depends on the environmental quality of the destination. I hypothesize that, at some points in time, there exists a rational economic incentive to experience a decrease in frequentation for a while in order to let the stock of natural assets regenerates since the fall in environmental quality is associated with a lower willingness to pay for the destination. Then I use a sample of 80 seaside hotels of Corsica to show that the WTP of tourists for a night-stay positively depends on environmental quality. Results indicate that a deterioration of the environmental quality of the destination would reduce the willingness to pay for a nigh-stay in Corsica of more than 25%. It tends to confirm my initial hypothesis since if the environmental quality of Corsica falls rational hotel owner should ask for a limited and temporary slow-down in frequentation so that environmental quality and the WTP reach again a higher and more profitable level.

As tourism is becoming one of the most important sectors of the world economy, the number of small islands trying to develop a competitive tourist activity is increasing and this strategy appears as growth enhancing. In most cases, it relies on the environmental quality of the destination, but also on lodging infrastructures and related services that tourists deserve in order to enjoy a good experience. This paper explores the intertemporal trade-off between investments and environmental quality preservation needed to ensure tourism profitability in the long run. It highlights the possible cyclical evolution of environmental quality, tourist infrastructures, investments and visitor numbers, considering both the central planner and the market solutions.

While tourism is becoming one of the most important sectors of the world economy, the number of small islands trying to develop a competitive tourism sector is increasing (Logossah, 2004; Shareef, 2003). Observers have to recognize that an important part of these Small Island Tourism Economies (SITE) is successful. Lanza and Pigliaru (2000) showed that seven out of the fifteen fastest growing countries between 1985 and 1995 were tourism countries3 and that most of them were SITE as St Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda or Cyprus. Marques (2003) showed for example a strong correlation between the level of GDP and tourism receipts for the region of the Caribbean. SITE are said to have some kind of absolute advantage in the production of tourist goods because of their natural endowments, and it implies that tourism is often seen by policy makers as the easiest way out to the “small island problem” (Crusol et al. 1989). Nonetheless tourism must not be thought of as a panacea, as a study realized by the World Bank and the Commonwealth secretariat pointed out in 2000. In fact, even though tourism provides welfare gains (Copeland, 1991, Nowak, Sahli, 1999, Sinclair 1998) and constitutes a good engine of growth (Hazari and Sgro, 1995, Lanza et al. 2003), it may also generate static and dynamic perverse effects. Recent literature has widely explored negative economic consequences of tourism

The aim of this paper is to study the optimal allocation of land between tourism and agricultural activities. In order to achieve this objective, an original method is implemented using both standard tools of economics and multiagents system simulation tools. The whole approach constitutes an original transdisciplinary tool for the exploration of virtual experiments.