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Abstract EFSA pest categorisations and pest risk assessments include the assessment of the potential establishment of plant pests. Together with the presence of host plants, climate suitability analysis is an important element to analyse the likelihood of potential establishment of a pest in an area. One of the main approaches used in EFSA plant health risk assessment is the analysis based on climate classifications i.e. evidencing the occurrence of climates enhancing pest development and persistence in a specific area. SCAN‐Clim is a tool designed to support climate suitability analysis based on climate classifications. The current version is the first prototype of the tool, developed in the R language, currently used to support EFSA climate suitability analysis for pest categorisation and for quantitative pest risk assessment. Tested on over 34 EFSA works, SCAN‐Clim significantly improved the speed of climate suitability maps generation guaranteeing a standardised map format and providing documentation on input/outputs. Further improvements will include the development of an interactive web app accessible through the EFSA R4EU Portal (expected to be delivered in 2022).

The Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for the grapevine insect pest, Daktulosphaira vitifoliae (an aphid species commonly known as phylloxera), in the European Union, identified risk reduction options and evaluated the effectiveness of the phytosanitary measures listed in Council Directive 2000/29/EC. Entry was assessed as potentially very likely for plants intended for planting (although the pathway is closed by Article 15 of Annex III) and very unlikely for fruit for consumption because transport and transfer would be very difficult, even though phylloxera has a moderate likelihood of association with the pathway. Establishment is very likely as the pest is already very widespread in the risk assessment area, occurring almost everywhere Vitis plants are present. Successful eradication is very unlikely and small populations can persist undetected in the soil. Spread within the EU is considered to be very likely because there are no effective barriers, it can disperse up to a few kilometres aided by the wind and it can readily be moved long distances with planting material. Grafting with resistant rootstocks throughout the EU ensures that the production of fruit and plants for planting is rarely affected by phylloxera infestations and, if so, only at a limited level. The Panel considers that the IIAII measures for D. vitifoliae do not assist in preventing entry and are ineffective in preventing spread because detection is so difficult. Restricting movements of plants for planting to cuttings grafted on resistant rootstocks, in combination with treatments (e.g. particularly fungicides and hot water treatments), was found to be the most effective risk reduction option. Limitations in the Cyprus protected zone regulations were identified.

The Panel conducted a pest risk assessment for Xanthomonas campestris (all strains pathogenic to Citrus) for the EU territory and an assessment of the effectiveness of present EU requirements against Xanthomonas strains pathogenic to citrus. The risk assessment was conducted under the scenario of absence of the current specific EU plant health legislation and the assumption that citrus-exporting countries apply measures to reduce yield and quality losses. Risk reduction options were systematically identified and evaluated. The strains of X. campestris pathogenic to citrus have been reclassified as four distinct infraspecific taxa within two species: X. citri and X. alfalfae. Only two pathovars (X. citri pv. citri and X. citri pv. aurantifolii) are responsible for the citrus bacterial canker thatpresents a major risk for the citrus industry in the EU. Seven entry pathways have been identified and evaluated. The likelihood of entry was rated unlikely for fruit, very likely for fruit plants for planting, moderately likely for ornamental plants for planting and unlikely for leaves and twigs. The uncertainty of probability of entry was rated as high. The probability of establishment was rated as moderately likely to likely with a medium uncertainty because host plants are widely present in EU areas where environmental conditions are suitable. Once established, spread would be likely with a low uncertainty. The impact of the disease, even if control measures are applied, was rated as moderate to major with a medium uncertainty. The disease would cause yield losses in areas where citrus is the main crop, increase the need for control measures and create environmental problems.The combined EU regulations have been shown to be effective in preventing the introduction of X. citri pv. citri or X. citri pv. aurantifolii in the EU, as no outbreaks of citrus canker in the EU territory have been reported.

The Panel conducted a risk assessment of Phyllosticta citricarpa for the EU. P. citricarpa causes citrus black spot (CBS) and is absent from the EU. Under the scenario of absence of specific risk reduction options against P. citricarpa, the risk of entry of P. citricarpa was rated as likely for citrus plants for planting and citrus fruit with leaves, moderately likely for citrus fruit without leaves, unlikely for citrus leaves for cooking and very unlikely for Tahiti lime fruit without leaves. Establishment was rated as moderately likely because susceptible hosts are widely available and environmental conditions in many EU citrus-growing areas are suitable (with high uncertainty) for P. citricarpa ascospore production, dispersal and infection. Current fungicide treatments will not prevent establishment. Environmental favourability is increased by the use of sprinkler and micro-sprinkler irrigation in some EU citrus-growing locations. Spread with trade was rated as moderately likely. Model results indicate that CBS epidemics are most likely to develop in EU citrus-growing areas in late summer to early autumn and in some locations also in late spring to early summer. CBS is expected to affect mainly lemons and late-maturing sweet orange and mandarin varieties, with moderate negative consequences for the production of fresh fruit, but with environmental impact of additional fungicide treatments. Negative consequences would be minor for early-maturing citrus varieties and minimal for citrus for processing. Uncertainty concerning the consequences is high, mainly because of the lack of data on critical climate response parameters for the pathogen but also because information on impact in areas at the limits of the current distribution is scarce. Since eradication and containment are difficult, phytosanitary measures should focus on preventing entry. Current phytosanitary measures are evaluated to be effective, with the exception of pest-free production sites.

The Panel on Plant Health assessed the risk to plant health from Phytophthora fragariae for the European Union and evaluated the current EU legislation and possible risk reduction options. The pest is present in most areas of Europe except southern Mediterranean regions. Entry through the plants for planting, but not seeds, pathway, is assessed as a major pathway, with the probability of entry rated as unlikely and the uncertainty as high. The probability of establishment is likely in the absence of existing disease control practices with low uncertainty. The probability of spread in the absence of a scheme for the production of certified plants for planting is considered to be very likely. With certification, spread is considered to be unlikely to moderately likely, depending on the inclusion of testing for the pathogen as part of certification. These ratings have medium uncertainty. Potential impact is rated as minor with medium uncertainty. The Panel evaluated the effectiveness of current EU legislation regarding the introduction and spread of P. fragariae. According to the regulation the import of Fragaria plants for planting, other than seeds, is prohibited from specified countries, whereas for import of these plants from other countries and for movement of these plants within the EU special requirements with respect to P. fragariae must be fulfilled. If the current legislation specific to P. fragariae were removed, no major consequences would be expected, unless the industry simultaneously ceased its voluntary certification activity. This is largely because of the important level of protection afforded to the industry by the widely used certification schemes for Fragaria, which significantly reduce the risks of entry, establishment, spread and impact. Certification schemes for the movement of Fragaria plants for planting offer the greatest efficiency and feasibility and the least uncertainty, especially if effective detection is incorporated into them.

The Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for Eutetranychus orientalis in the European Union (EU) and evaluated the effectiveness of phytosanitary measures in Council Directive 2000/29/EC. Entry through the plants for planting pathway is assessed as very likely, while entry through other pathways is estimated as moderately likely to unlikely owing to the different probability of transfer to a suitable host. Establishment is rated as very likely in Mediterranean areas and from moderately likely to unlikely in non-Mediterranean areas, because of unfavourable environmental conditions. Spread is rated as very likely because of the many ways the pest can spread, its polyphagy and the wide distribution of hosts. Impact is rated as minor, with an expected increase in the damage when populations of natural enemies are severely affected by control measures and/or when environmental conditions are stressful for the host. However, the lack of information resulted in an overall medium level of uncertainty. The Panel evaluated the effectiveness of current EU phytosanitary measures and concluded that the removal of E. orientalis from Annex IIAII would not affect its probability of entry, because the importation from Third countries of some host plants regulated for this pest(Citrus, Fortunella, Poncirus species and their hybrids) is prohibited in Annex III. However, spread could be affected since there would no longer be a requirement to inspect for this pest before issuing a plant passport (Annex V). However, since the regulated Rutaceae species constitute an extremely small proportion of the potential host plants of E. orientalis, the current phytosanitary measures are mostly ineffective in preventing further introduction and spread of E. orientalis in the EU. The Panel identified surveillance at the production site and treatment of the consignment as the most effective and technically feasible risk reduction options, particularly when applied together.

The Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for Parasaissetia nigra in the European Union (EU) and identified and evaluated the phytosanitary measures listed in Council Directive 2000/29/EC. Entry through the principal pathways is assessed as moderately likely for plants for planting and very unlikely for living parts of plants, such as fruit and cut flowers with foliage, the discrepancy being mainly due to the difference in probability of transfer to a suitable host. Establishment is rated as very likely outdoors in Mediterranean areas and indoors in the whole risk assessment area (where the pest has been present for a long time), and unlikely outdoors in non-Mediterranean areas. Spread within the EU is considered to be moderately likely because the pest can readily be moved with plant material but is limited by climatic conditions. The magnitude of the potential consequences is rated as minor. The Panel evaluated the effectiveness of current EU phytosanitary measures and concluded that the removal of P. nigra from Annex IIAII would not affect its probability of entry, because the importation from Third countries of some host plants regulated for P. nigra (Citrus, Fortunella, Poncirus species and their hybrids) is prohibited in Annex III. However, spread could be affected since there would no longer be a requirement to inspect for this pest before issuing a plant passport (Annex V). However, since the regulated Rutaceae species constitute only a very small proportion of the potential host plants of P. nigra,the current phytosanitary measures are mostly ineffective in preventing the further introduction and spread of P. nigra in the EU. The Panel identified surveillance at the production site and treatment of the consignment as the most effective and technically feasible risk reduction options, particularly when in combination.

The Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for Bemisia tabaci and the viruses it transmits, including an evaluation of risk reduction options and an assessment of the effectiveness of the special requirements linked to B. tabaci and the viruses listed in Council Directive 2000/29/EC. B. tabaci and a large number of viruses transmitted by this polyphagous insect occur in subtropical and tropical climates around the world. Five entry pathways for B. tabaci and associated viruses were identified, with the plants for planting pathway being most significant and rated for entry of insects and viruses as likely and moderately likely, respectively. The most invasive B. tabaci species and several of its associated viruses responsible for severe diseases in major European food crops are established outdoors in coastal Mediterranean regions. Because of similar climate requirements and host plant preferences, B. tabaci and associated viruses currently not present in Europe are likely to establish within the temperature limits set for B. tabaci. Trade between European Member States allows B. tabaci to reach greenhouses in northern Europe, including those in areas with protected zone status. Because of the cool climate, establishment and spread outdoors of B. tabaci is rated unlikely for northern Europe. This situation is likely to continue even under a climatic scenario with an increase in temperature of +2 °C. B. tabaci -transmitted viruses cause severe diseases with major negative impact on crop production when risk reduction measures are not used. Risk reduction options will also apply to B. tabaci and viruses new to Europe. Risk reductions options are evaluated in terms of reducing B. tabaci populations, crop infestations, virus incidence and the impact of diseases. © European Food Safety Authority, 2013

The Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for Phialophora cinerescens (Wollenweber) van Beyma (the causal agent of Phialophora carnation wilt) for the EU territory, identified risk management options and evaluated their effectiveness. The risk assessment was conducted taking into account current EU legislation. The Panel also provided an opinion on the effectiveness of the present EU requirements against this organism, listed in Council Directive 2000/29/EC. Four pathways for entry were identified. Plants for propagation (rooted and unrooted cuttings of host plants) were considered as a major pathway. Entry via this pathway was rated as unlikely because of the effective disease prevention techniques for cuttings now in place in places of production. P. cinerescens has been found in most Member States but with few occurrences or restricted distribution. In some Member States the pest was eradicated. Owing to current cultural practices and control measures, establishment in areas in which the pest was not previously present is considered very unlikely. For the same reasons, the probability of infection of crops is strongly reduced and hence the probability of spread to areas where the pest was not previously present is very unlikely. Similarly, the impact on carnation is at the moment minimal and unlikely to increase in the future. Risk reduction options to reduce the probability of entry and spread and mitigate the impact were evaluated; those addressing the phytosanitary status of the propagation material were considered to be the most effective and feasible (e.g., the officially accepted carnation certification system for source planting material), including the current regulations laid down in Council Directive 2000/29/EC. If the current regulation were removed, a certification system could be just as effective as the existing regulation, provided it included practically all the prescriptions of the present regulation.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for Burkholderia caryophylli for the EU territory under the scenario of current EU legislation and identified and evaluated risk reduction options. B. caryophylli is absent from the EU territory. The host range of B. caryophylli includes the genus Dianthus and three other incidental, minor, hosts (statice, lisianthus and gypsophila). Seven entry pathways were identified, with carnation cuttings and cut flowers being the most frequently traded. All pathways were considered unlikely as the pathogen is rarely associated with the pathways at origin mostly because of the high phytosanitary quality of the plant propagation material. The establishment is unlikely because outdoors the environmental conditions are not favourable to the pathogen and alternative hosts are not present, whereas in protected crops the cultural practices are very effective to keep the crop free from this bacterium. Only very short-distance spread within a crop is likely, and spread between different crops is unlikely. Risk reduction options addressing the sanitary status of the propagation material have the best effectiveness and feasibility. Effective control measures are based on healthy propagation materials (cuttings) and hygiene practices. With the existing certification scheme of carnation plant propagation material, the probability of spread through infected cuttings is largely reduced. The high effectiveness of current measures is ensured by the absence of B. caryophylli in the EU, as in recent decades no findings of B. caryophylli have been reported.B. caryophylli is reported to be present in some third countries in Asia, where it still causes high crop losses. If the current regulation were to be removed, major consequences or changes in the potential impact of B. caryophylli are expected if no voluntary certification scheme were applied, together with good sanitation standards, along the crop production chain.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for Dickeya dianthicola for the EU territory under the scenario of current EU plant health legislation and identified and evaluated risk reduction options. The probability of entry was considered low for carnation cuttings and mother plants because association of D. dianthicola with carnation is rare nowadays. Probability of entry was considered higher for other host plants for planting that are not subject to statutory control. However, this pathogen already occurs in these crops in the EU, and its transfer from them to carnation is unlikely. The probability of establishment is high in the open field but low in protected crops. The probability of spread is moderate in the open field but low in protected crops. Under current phytosanitary measures, but with voluntary certification and sanitation practices in place, consequences for carnation are minimal since no carnation crop losses have been reported in the last 25 years. The risk reduction options with best effectiveness and feasibility are those addressing the sanitary status of the propagation material. However, although the prevalence of D. dianthicola on carnation is low at present, current EU measures appear to have some potential weaknesses, particularly because of lack of details on the testing of mother plants. If the current regulation were to be removed, no major consequences or changes in the potential impact of D. dianthicola are expected provided the current general hygiene practices applied in the European voluntary certification schemes are maintained. If, on the other hand, the current legislation were removed and a voluntary certification scheme was not maintained, contamination of carnation crops by D. dianthicola is expected, with ensuing detrimental effects. Additional risk reduction options to reduce the probability of entry, establishment, spread and impact were identified. Uncertainties on the assessment are discussed.

The Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for Scirrhia pini for the European Union (EU) territory, identified risk management options and evaluated their effectiveness. The risk assessment was conducted taking into account current EU legislation. The Panel also provided an opinion on the effectiveness of the present EU requirements against this organism listed in Council Directive 2000/29/EC. Considering that there has been taxonomic confusion over the pest mentioned in the EU plant health legislation, the assessment was carried out for Dothistroma septosporum (the anamorph of S. pini, the latter renamed to Mycosphaerella pini) and Dothistroma pini (teleomorph unknown), both of which cause Dothistroma needle blight. Three major pathways for entry were identified: host plants intended for planting/grafting (excluding fruit and seeds), natural means (wind, rain, wind-driven rain, etc.), and host plants and plant parts with foliage not intended for planting (e.g., fresh branches, cut Christmas trees, etc.); probability of entry was considered very likely, likely and unlikely, respectively, with high uncertainty. The establishment and further spread were both considered very likely. The current consequences were considered major and they include loss of wood volume, tree mortality, and losses in terms of landscape value, amenity value, recreational uses and tourism. The Panel concluded that introduction and spread of the two pests are not fully prevented by Council Directive 2000/29/EC, mainly because of the possibility to import and trade host plant material other than Pinus plants for planting. In order to prevent the potentially serious impacts in those parts of the risk assessment area where the pathogens are currently not known to occur, additional risk reduction options have been identified, in the form of simultaneous implementation of measures targeted at reducing the movement of infected host plants and the further spread of the pests by natural means.

The Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for Liriomyza huidobrensis and Liriomyza trifolii in the European Union and identified and evaluated the phytosanitary measures listed in Council Directive 2000/29/EC. Entry on the principal pathways (plants for planting, cut flowers and leafy vegetables) is assessed as likely as the pests are regularly associated with the pathways at origin, survival during transport or storage is high and only partially affected by current pest management procedures, and transfer to a suitable host is likely as their hosts are so widespread. Establishment is rated as very likely because both species have established populations in most countries of the EU, with transient populations occurring outdoors in non-Mediterranean areas. Spread within the EU is considered to be likely because the pests can readily be moved with plant material. The magnitude of the potential consequences is rated as minor for both species in Mediterranean areas. In non-Mediterranean countries it is moderate for both species in protected crops but, outdoors, impacts are minor for L. huidobrensis and minimal for L. trifolii. The current regulations to prevent entry and spread were found to be only partially effective as interceptions are still being made, cut branches with foliage and leafy vegetables other than celery are excluded, and the methods for inspection and the treatments required to confirm pest free areas, places of production and consignments are not clearly specified. Removal of the legislation would have some advantages and disadvantages but may not have a major effect. The regulations could be tightened by including additional commodities, clearly prescribing the inspection procedures and the appropriate treatments to be used and combining these with other measures, e.g. screening. The application of protected zones to areas where the pests are not yet present can be applied to help prevent further spread.

The Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for Chrysanthemum stunt viroid (CSVd) and identified and evaluated risk reduction options, particularly those listed in Council Directive 2000/29/EC. Three entry pathways were identified, with plants for planting being the most important and rated as moderately likely. CSVd is recorded in some EU Member States with a limited distribution and is regulated on chrysanthemum; host plants are widely cultivated in greenhouses and outdoors. Therefore, establishment is very likely. Short-distance spread within a crop is likely, whereas short-distance spread between different species is unlikely to moderately likely. For vegetatively propagated species, in the absence of an efficient certification system, long-distance spread is very likely and a major impact would be expected on chrysanthemum, with associated yield and quality losses. However, under the existing certification scheme for chrysanthemum plant propagation material, the probability of spread through infected cuttings is largely reduced and the direct consequences of viroid outbreaks are expected to be minor. Minimal impact is predicted for other ornamental hosts and a minor impact for solanaceous vegetable crops. The indirect effects of CSVd are considered to be limited, with the exception of eradication. Risk reduction options addressing the sanitary status of the propagation material are likely to be the most effective and feasible. These include the current EU measures, as well as a statutory certification system with associated statutory import requirements or, failing that, but potentially less effective, the use of voluntary industry standards. It is difficult to disentangle the benefits of the current legislation from those of the industry-developed chrysanthemum certification system. The high efficacy of current measures is supported by the absence or limited presence of CSVd in the EU and by the limited number of interceptions and findings. Possible improvements to current measures are described and uncertainties discussed.