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Pedestrian safety is increasingly recognized as a major public health concern. Extensive safety studies have been conducted to examine the influence of multiple variables on the occurrence of pedestrian-vehicle crashes. However, the explicit relationship between pedestrian safety and road network characteristics remains unknown. This study particularly focused on the role of different road network patterns on the occurrence of crashes involving pedestrians. A global integration index via space syntax was introduced to quantify the topological structures of road networks. The Bayesian Poisson-lognormal (PLN) models with conditional autoregressive (CAR) prior were then developed via three different proximity structures: contiguity, geometry-centroid distance, and road network connectivity. The models were also compared with the PLN counterpart without spatial correlation effects. The analysis was based on a comprehensive crash dataset from 131 selected traffic analysis zones in Hong Kong. The results indicated that higher global integration was associated with more pedestrian-vehicle crashes; the irregular pattern network was proved to be safest in terms of pedestrian crash occurrences, whereas the grid pattern was the least safe; the CAR model with a neighborhood structure based on road network connectivity was found to outperform in model goodness-of-fit, implying the importance of accurately accounting for spatial correlation when modeling spatially aggregated crash data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study was performed to investigate the spatially varying relationships between crash frequency and related risk factors. A Bayesian spatially varying coefficients model was elaborately introduced as a methodological alternative to simultaneously account for the unstructured and spatially structured heterogeneity of the regression coefficients in predicting crash frequencies. The proposed method was appealing in that the parameters were modeled via a conditional autoregressive prior distribution, which involved a single set of random effects and a spatial correlation parameter with extreme values corresponding to pure unstructured or pure spatially correlated random effects. A case study using a three-year crash dataset from the Hillsborough County, Florida, was conducted to illustrate the proposed model. Empirical analysis confirmed the presence of both unstructured and spatially correlated variations in the effects of contributory factors on severe crash occurrences. The findings also suggested that ignoring spatially structured heterogeneity may result in biased parameter estimates and incorrect inferences, while assuming the regression coefficients to be spatially clustered only is probably subject to the issue of over-smoothness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The widely adopted techniques for regional crash modeling include the negative binomial model (NB) and Bayesian negative binomial model with conditional autoregressive prior (CAR). The outputs from both models consist of a set of fixed global parameter estimates. However, the impacts of predicting variables on crash counts might not be stationary over space. This study intended to quantitatively investigate this spatial heterogeneity in regional safety modeling using two advanced approaches, i.e., random parameter negative binomial model (RPNB) and semi-parametric geographically weighted Poisson regression model (S-GWPR). Based on a 3-year data set from the county of Hillsborough, Florida, results revealed that (1) both RPNB and S-GWPR successfully capture the spatially varying relationship, but the two methods yield notably different sets of results; (2) the S-GWPR performs best with the highest value of R d 2 as well as the lowest mean absolute deviance and Akaike information criterion measures. Whereas the RPNB is comparable to the CAR, in some cases, it provides less accurate predictions; (3) a moderately significant spatial correlation is found in the residuals of RPNB and NB, implying the inadequacy in accounting for the spatial correlation existed across adjacent zones. As crash data are typically collected with reference to location dimension, it is desirable to firstly make use of the geographical component to explore explicitly spatial aspects of the crash data (i.e., the spatial heterogeneity, or the spatially structured varying relationships), then is the unobserved heterogeneity by non-spatial or fuzzy techniques. The S-GWPR is proven to be more appropriate for regional crash modeling as the method outperforms the global models in capturing the spatial heterogeneity occurring in the relationship that is model, and compared with the non-spatial model, it is capable of accounting for the spatial correlation in crash data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • The safety-in-numbers effects were investigated in an area with low pedestrian activities. • The safety-in-numbers effects were found only at 32 intersections out of 219. • Intersections with the safety-in-numbers effects have relatively higher pedestrian activities. • Intersections without the safety-in-numbers effects have extremely low pedestrian activities. Abstract In previous studies, the safety-in-numbers effect has been found, which is a phenomenon that when the number of pedestrians or cyclists increases, their crash rates decrease. The previous studies used data from highly populated areas. It is questionable that the safety-in-numbers effect is still observed in areas with a low population density and small number of pedestrians. Thus, this study aims at analyzing pedestrian crashes in a suburban area in the United States and exploring if the safety-in-numbers effect is also observed. We employ a Bayesian random-parameter Poisson-lognormal model to evaluate the safety-in-numbers effects of each intersection, which can account for the heterogeneity across the observations. The results show that the safety-in-numbers effect were found only at 32 intersections out of 219. The intersections with the safety-in-numbers effect have relatively larger pedestrian activities whereas those without the safety-in-numbers effect have extremely low pedestrian activities. It is concluded that just encouraging walking might result in serious pedestrian safety issues in a suburban area without sufficient pedestrian activities. Therefore, it is plausible to provide safe walking environment first with proven countermeasures and a people-oriented policy rather than motor-oriented. After safe walking environments are guaranteed and when people recognize that walking is safe, more people will consider walking for short-distance trips. Eventually, increased pedestrian activities will result in the safety-in-numbers effects and walking will be even further safer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The overall question is what effects the human behavior shift brings on the crash occurrence. • The increased percentage of people staying at home improves pedestrian and cyclist safety. • Human mobility factors were found not related to crash fatalities. • Control NPIs implemented increased the motor vehicle drivers' crash risk. The COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped our cities in many ways. The number of motor vehicles on the road has plummeted during lockdowns, and an increasing number of people are turning to walking and biking. From a road safety perspective, the overall question is what effects the human behavior shift brings on the crash occurrence and, more importantly, how to support decision-makers on safer mobility policies? Based on anonymous mobile phone location and crash report data in New York City, this study attempts to provide some new insights by using survival analysis (the hazard function approach) to explore the effects of human mobility changes due to the pandemic on crashes that involve injuries and fatalities (of pedestrian, cyclist or motorist). (1) the increased percentage of people staying at home improves pedestrian and cyclist safety, which adds evidence for making walking and cycling more appealing; (2) the increased percentage of people staying at home raises the likelihood of injuries for motor vehicle drivers, suggesting that it will be critical to monitor the driving behavior and establish new speed limits during the future pandemic waves and in the post-pandemic era as well; (3) non-work trips (e.g., shopping, recreation, personal business, etc.) are positively associated with crash injuries for motor vehicle drivers as well as pedestrian and cyclist; (4) human mobility factors were found not related to crash fatalities; (5) control NPIs implemented increased the motor vehicle drivers' crash risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]