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Accurate traffic speed forecasting is one of the most critical tasks in proactive traffic management and the deployment of advanced traveler information systems. This paper proposes a hybrid forecasting approach named DeepEnsemble by integrating the three‐dimensional convolutional neural network (3D CNN) with ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD). There are four steps in this hybrid approach. First, EEMD is adopted to decompose the complex traffic speed time series data with noise into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a residue. Second, a three‐dimensional tensor is established and fed into 3D CNN for prediction. Third, the output of 3D CNN prediction is obtained by a linear combination of the results of all components. Finally, the 3D CNN prediction output, external features, and historical features are fused to predict the network‐wide traffic speed simultaneously. The proposed DeepEnsemble approach is tested on the three‐month traffic speed series data of a real‐world large‐scale urban expressway network with 308 traffic flow detectors in Beijing, China. The experimental results indicate that DeepEnsemble outperforms the state‐of‐the‐art network‐wide traffic speed forecasting models. 3D CNN learns temporal, spatial, and depth information better than 2D CNN. Moreover, forecasting accuracy can be improved by employing EEMD. DeepEnsemble is a promising model with scalability and portability for network‐wide traffic speed prediction and can be further extended to conduct traffic status monitoring and congestion mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A two-layer deep learning structure based on the LSTM and the GRU was developed to capture the spatio-temporal features of the travel speed of lanes. • Real-world traffic speed data of different lanes in Beijing was used to validate the proposed FDL model. • The proposed FDL model outperforms both the traditional and the state-of-the-art benchmark algorithms, including two deep learning methods. • The predicted speeds of the FDL model are most robust during the 24 h among NN-based benchmark models. Accurate and robust short-term traffic prediction is an important part of advanced traveler information systems. With the development of intelligent navigation and autonomous driving, it is necessary to explore the lane-level predictions of traffic speeds. However, most existing traffic prediction models concentrate on forecasting the traffic flow characteristics of the entire road sections rather than those of certain lanes. This paper proposes a fusion deep learning (FDL) model to predict lane-level traffic speed. First, the entropy-based grey relation analysis is introduced to choose lane sections that are strongly correlated with the lane section to be predicted. Second, a two-layer deep learning framework is established by combining the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network and the gated recurrent unit (GRU) neural network. Third, the ground-truth data of several lane sections captured by remote traffic microwave sensors (RTMS) on the 2nd Ring Road of Beijing are utilized to examine the FDL model and compare it with several benchmark models. The experimental result indicates that in addition to capturing the fluctuations of traffic speed at the lane level, the FDL model has better performance than the benchmark models in terms of prediction accuracy and stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short-term traffic forecasting has played a key role in supporting the need of proactive and dynamic traffic control system. K-nearest neighbor (KNN) nonparametric regression models have been widely used in traffic prediction. KNN models give predictions based on the future state of traffic speed that is completely determined by the current state, but with no dependence on the past sequences of traffic speed that produced the current state. In fact, traffic speed is not completely random in nature, and some patterns repeat in the traffic stream. In this paper, we proposed a methodology called bi-pattern recognition KNN model (BKNN) which uses pattern recognition technique twice in the searching process to predict the future traffic state. Then the proposed BKNN model is applied to predict one day real traffic speed series of two sites, which are located near the North 2nd and 3rd Ring Road in Beijing, respectively. With the optimal neighbor and pattern size, the BKNN model provides good predictions. Moreover, in comparison with the KNN model, PKNN model (a modified model based on KNN), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and the artificial neural networks (ANN), the BKNN model appears to be the most promising and robust of the five models to provide better short-term traffic prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]