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Tree provenance trials consist of a variety of seed sources (or provenances) planted at several test sites across the range of a species. The resulting plantations are typically measured periodically to investigate provenance performance in relation to abiotic conditions, particularly climate. These trials are expensive and time consuming to establish, but are an important resource for seed transfer systems, which aim to match planting sites with well-adapted (climatically suitable) seed sources. Provenance trial measurements may be underutilized because the data are scattered across publications, conference proceedings, and university theses. Here we document an effort to collect available provenance trial measurements and associated climate data for seven eastern North American tree species (Pinus strobus, Pinus banksiana, Picea glauca, Picea mariana, Quercus rubra, Larix laricina, Betula alleghaniensis). The resulting datasets included a total of 773 provenances and 62 test sites, with 65 historical climate variables appended to each location. We hope this data will support forest managers in making seed transfer decisions, particularly in an era of rapid climate change.

Climate-influenced changes in fire regimes in northern temperate and boreal regions will have both ecological and economic ramifications. We examine possible future wildfire area burned and suppression costs using a recently compiled historical (i.e., 1980-2009) fire management cost database for Canada and several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate projections. Area burned was modelled as a function of a climate moisture index (CMI), and fire suppression costs then estimated as a function of area burned. Future estimates of area burned were generated from projections of the CMI under two emissions pathways for four General Circulation Models (GCMs); these estimates were constrained to ecologically reasonable values by incorporating a minimum fire return interval of 20 years. Total average annual national fire management costs are projected to increase to just under $1 billion (a 60% real increase from the 1980-2009 period) under the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway and $1.4 billion (119% real increase from the base period) under the high emissions pathway by the end of the century. For many provinces, annual costs that are currently considered extreme (i.e., occur once every ten years) are projected to become commonplace (i.e., occur once every two years or more often) as the century progresses. It is highly likely that evaluations of current wildland fire management paradigms will be necessary to avoid drastic and untenable cost increases as the century progresses.

Seed mass is an adaptive trait affecting species distribution, population dynamics and community structure. In widely distributed species, variation in seed mass may reflect both genetic adaptation to local environments and adaptive phenotypic plasticity. Acknowledging the difficulty in separating these two aspects, we examined the causal relationships determining seed mass variation to better understand adaptability and/or plasticity of selected tree species to spatial/climatic variation. A total of 504, 481 and 454 seed collections of black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.), white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb) across the Canadian Boreal Forest, respectively, were selected. Correlation analyses were used to determine how seed mass vary with latitude, longitude, and altitude. Structural Equation Modeling was used to examine how geographic and climatic variables influence seed mass. Climatic factors explained a large portion of the variation in seed mass (34, 14 and 29%, for black spruce, white spruce and jack pine, respectively), indicating species-specific adaptation to long term climate conditions. Higher annual mean temperature and winter precipitation caused greater seed mass in black spruce, but annual precipitation was the controlling factor for white spruce. The combination of factors such as growing season temperature and evapotranspiration, temperature seasonality and annual precipitation together determined seed mass of jack pine. Overall, sites with higher winter temperatures were correlated with larger seeds. Thus, long-term climatic conditions, at least in part, determined spatial variation in seed mass. Black spruce and Jack pine, species with relatively more specific habitat requirements and less plasticity, had more variation in seed mass explained by climate than did the more plastic species white spruce. As traits such as seed mass are related to seedling growth and survival, they potentially influence forest species composition in a changing climate and should be included in future modeling of vegetation shifts.

Canada's National Forest Inventory (CanFI) provides coarse-grained, aggregated information on a large number of forest attributes. Though reasonably well suited for summary reporting on national forest resources, the coarse spatial nature of this data limits its usefulness in modeling applications that require information on forest composition at finer spatial resolutions. An alternative source of information is the land cover classification produced by the Canadian Forest Service as part of its Earth Observation for Sustainable Development of Forests (EOSD) initiative. This product, which is derived from Landsat satellite imagery, provides relatively high resolution coverage, but only very general information on forest composition (such as conifer, mixedwood, and deciduous). Here we link the CanFI and EOSD products using a spatial randomization technique to distribute the forest composition information in CanFI to the forest cover classes in EOSD. The resultant geospatial coverages provide randomized predictions of forest composition, which incorporate the fine-scale spatial detail of the EOSD product and agree in general terms with the species composition summaries from the original CanFI estimates. We describe the approach and provide illustrative results for selected major commercial tree species in Canada.

Pest risk maps can provide useful decision support in invasive species management, but most do not adequately consider the uncertainty associated with predicted risk values. This study explores how increased uncertainty in a risk model's numeric assumptions might affect the resultant risk map. We used a spatial stochastic model, integrating components for entry, establishment, and spread, to estimate the risks of invasion and their variation across a two-dimensional landscape for Sirex noctilio, a nonnative woodwasp recently detected in the United States and Canada. Here, we present a sensitivity analysis of the mapped risk estimates to variation in key model parameters. The tested parameter values were sampled from symmetric uniform distributions defined by a series of nested bounds (+/-5%, ... , +/-40%) around the parameters' initial values. The results suggest that the maximum annual spread distance, which governs long-distance dispersal, was by far the most sensitive parameter. At +/-15% or larger variability bound increments for this parameter, there were noteworthy shifts in map risk values, but no other parameter had a major effect, even at wider bounds of variation. The methodology presented here is generic and can be used to assess the impact of uncertainties on the stability of pest risk maps as well as to identify geographic areas for which management decisions can be made confidently, regardless of uncertainty.

This study explores the economic attractiveness of afforestation as a strategy for the joint production of fibre, carbon storage and biosolids (treated municipal sewage sludge) disposal for municipalities in Southern and Central Ontario, Canada. We use a spatial, stochastic model, the Canadian Forest Service Afforestation Feasibility Model (CFS-AFM), to simulate a range of spatial biosolids application scenarios in hybrid poplar afforestation projects. Results suggest that such joint afforestation strategies could be financially attractive. Significant cost savings can be expected through decreases in transportation distances and avoided waste disposal fees. Sensitivity analysis is used to examine the effects of variations in critical model parameters on net present values. Our findings indicate that waste disposal savings from application of biosolids on hybrid poplar plantations combined with incentives for landowners to sequester carbon can easily compete with agricultural land rental values in some regions of Ontario. Social acceptance of this kind of activity, however, may be an impediment to adoption.

Under a changing climate, species will need to rapidly adapt to novel conditions at existing locations, migrate to track suitable climate, or risk widespread declines. For sessile, slow-migrating organisms like trees, adaptive capacity is expected to be particularly important for survival. Alternatively, assisted migration has been proposed as a means to help align tree populations with shifting climate habitats. Here we report on the performance of seed sources and species at broadleaf and conifer climate change trials at 10 and 11 years after planting, respectively. The trials were established in southern Ontario – an important transition zone between boreal and temperate ecosystems – and were designed to assess: (1) the assisted migration potential of six broadleaf species (via northward movements of seed sources), and (2) the adaptive capacity of three conifer species (via southward movements of seed sources). Both broadleaf and coniferous seed sources tolerated significant movements while maintaining reasonable growth and survival rates. In fact, several coniferous seed sources exhibited relatively high growth and survival rates despite southward transfers of more than 1000 km (> 5 °C mean annual temperature) – indicating considerable adaptive capacity to climate change in these northern conifer populations. Furthermore, several of the broadleaf species exhibited high levels of growth and survival despite being planted at, or beyond, their current northern range limits – suggesting the potential for modest range expansions via assisted migration. Despite caveats related to the relatively young age of the plantations and deer browsing at the site, these findings help forest managers better understand potential climate change impacts and assisted migration outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Forestry Chronicle is the property of Canadian Institute of Forestry and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Forest planting events present key opportunities to enhance forest adaptation and growth through the selection of appropriate growing materials (seeds and seedlings). Critical to such efforts is knowledge of the climatic distance that seed sources can be moved before significant growth forfeitures are incurred. These limits, referred to here as critical seed transfer distances (CSTD), can be used to identify a potential seed procurement region for any given planting site and can readily incorporate climate change projections.We assembled provenance trial data from a variety of sources and employed transfer functions to derive CSTDs for five major tree species in eastern North America.Optimal height growth at test sites was associated with modest warm‐to‐cold (i.e. northward) seed transfers of 1.6°C on average. Calculated transfer limits were large, indicating that seed sources could be moved significant climatic distances before height growth was less than 90% relative to that of the local seed source. These broad relationships, which were relatively consistent across species, would allow considerable flexibility in resulting seed transfer systems; however, given the significant uncertainty surrounding climate change—particularly in the location and timing of extreme weather events—prudent application of seed transfer limits may be appropriate.Synthesis: We assembled and analysed a significant amount of provenance data to derive novel information on seed movement limits for five tree species in eastern North America. This information will support forest managers in ongoing efforts to incorporate climate change into forest regeneration operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The degree to which tree species will shift in response to climate change is uncertain yet critical to understand for assessing ecosystem vulnerability. We analyze results from recent studies that model potential tree species habitat across the eastern United States during the coming century. Our goals were to quantify and spatially analyze habitat projections and their congruence under multiple climate scenarios and to assess the implications of habitat change for forest vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in and around protected areas. We assessed habitat projections of species habitat extent and forest composition for 35 tree species under climate change from 2000 to 2100 within National Park Service management units in the Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperative (ALCC), spanning an approximately 1,500 km latitudinal gradient. Our results show that forest composition and species ranges could change substantially under all greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and that model correspondence was stronger for projections of habitat declines than increases. Model correspondence generally increased at finer spatial scales, but varied by tree species and focal area. In the ALCC, forest composition was projected to change the most in protected area centered ecosystems (PACEs). Northeastern PACEs were projected to be suitable for tree species currently in southeastern PACEs, suggesting that intermediate suitable habitat regions could promote tree species persistence and mitigate the impacts of climate change on eastern forests. These results suggest that climate-specific management of eastern U.S. forest ecosystems will be critical but challenging, requiring integrated assessment and management of PACEs and protected areas as well as higher-resolution monitoring and modeling to inform spatially explicit management decisions within eastern U.S. parks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Forestry Chronicle is the property of Canadian Institute of Forestry and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Assisted migration (AM) is often presented as a strategy to save species that are imminently threatened by rapid climate change. This conception of AM, which has generated considerable controversy, typically proposes the movement of narrowly distributed, threatened species to suitable sites beyond their current range limits. However, existing North American forestry operations present an opportunity to practice AM on a larger scale, across millions of hectares, with a focus on moving populations of widely distributed, nonthreatened tree species within their current range limits. Despite these differences (and many others detailed herein), these two conceptions of AM have not been clearly distinguished in the literature, which has added confusion to recent dialogue and debate. Here, we aim to facilitate clearer communication on this topic by detailing this distinction and encouraging a more nuanced view of AM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses a study on the estimates of the potential cost of emerald ash borer or Agrilus planipennis Faimaire, in Canadian urban areas. The areas were identified through a digital version of Canada's urban areas cartographic boundary file. As an additional focus, probable effects to backyard trees were included. The types of costs that were integrated into the study are removal costs, replacement costs, treatment costs, and community overhead costs.

Global climate models are constantly being upgraded, but it is often not clear what these changes have on climate change impact projections. We used difference maps to directly compare downscaled projections of temperature and precipitation across North America for two versions (or generations) of three different Atmospheric-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM)s. We found that AOGCM versions differed in their projections for the end of the current century by up to 4 °C for annual mean temperature and 60% for annual precipitation. To place these changes in an ecological context, we reanalyzed our work on shifts in tree climate envelopes (CEs) using the newer-generation AOGCM projections. Based on the updated AOGCMs, by the 2071-2100 period, tree CEs shifted up to 2.4 degrees further north or 2.6 degrees further south (depending on the AOGCM) and were about 10% larger in size. Despite considerable differences between versions of a given AOGCM, projections made by the newer version of each AOGCM were in general agreement, suggesting convergence across the three models studied here. Assessing the AOGCM outputs in this way provides insight into the magnitude and importance of change associated with AOGCM upgrades as they continue to evolve through time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently predicted change in climate could strongly affect plant distributions during the next century. Here we determine the present-day climatic niches for 130 North American tree species. We then locate the climatic conditions of these niches on maps of predicted future climate, indicating where each species could potentially occur by the end of the century. A major unknown in this work is the extent to which populations of trees will actually track climate shifts through migration. We therefore present two extreme scenarios in which species either move entirely into future climatic niches or do not move out of their current niches. In the full-dispersal scenario, future potential ranges show decreases and increases in size, with an average decrease of 12% and a northward shift of 700 kilometers (km). In the no-dispersal scenario, potential ranges decrease in size by 58% and shift northward by 330 km. Major redistribution pressures appear to be in order under both dispersal scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]