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An Mw 6.2 earthquake occurred in Suzu, northeastern Noto Peninsula, Japan, on 5 May 2023, followed by many aftershocks. Before this mainshock‐aftershock sequence, an intense earthquake swarm lasted in the vicinity for 2.5 years. Here, we estimated the rupture process of the Mw 6.2 mainshock and relocated >20,000 surrounding small earthquakes. The results show that systematic upward migration occurred via a complex network of faults in the preceding swarm period and that the mainshock rupture was initiated near the shallow end of the swarm earthquakes. The mainshock rupture propagated farther updip, followed by many aftershocks in the shallow extension. Upward fluid movement likely caused systematic upward earthquake migration from a depth of 18–5 km. The present results indicate the importance of monitoring swarm events since large (M > 6) and dangerous earthquakes can occur during such swarms. Plain Language Summary: Growing evidence suggests that fluid movements at depth can cause earthquake swarms in the overriding plates of subduction zones. However, there is less evidence of fluid involvement in the occurrence of large (M > 6) earthquakes, and it has been reported that the generation environments of large earthquakes and swarm earthquakes tend to be different. During intense swarm activity in the northeastern Noto Peninsula, Japan, starting at the end of 2020, an M6.2 earthquake occurred on 5 May 2023, followed by many aftershocks. To clarify the occurrence mechanism of the M6.2 mainshock, we relocated >20,000 small earthquakes and estimated the rupture process. The results showed a systematic upward migration of earthquakes in the preceding swarm period on the deep side of the mainshock fault (depth from 20 to 12 km). The mainshock rupture initiated near the shallow end of the swarm activity and propagated updip (depth from 12 to 9 km). Many aftershocks followed in shallower part of the same fault (depth from 10 to 5 km). Upward fluid migration likely caused the observed systematic upward earthquake migration throughout the sequence. The results indicate that earthquakes as large as M > 6 can be triggered by fluid migration during enhanced seismicity in swarms. Key Points: An Mw 6.2 event initiated near the shallow end of a fault where the preceding earthquake swarm showed systematic upward migrationThe Mw 6.2 rupture propagated farther updip, followed by many shallow aftershocks on the faultUpward fluid migration can trigger earthquakes as large as Mw > 6 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ocean bottom pressure-gauge (OBP) records play an essential role in seafloor geodesy. Oceanographic fluctuations in OBP data, however, pose as a significant noise source in seafloor transient crustal deformation observations, including slow slip events (SSEs), making it crucial to evaluate them quantitatively. To extract the significant fluctuation phenomena common to multiple observation networks, including oceanographic fluctuations and tectonic signals, we applied principal component analysis (PCA) to the 3-year Dense Oceanfloor Network System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET) OBP time series for 40 stations during 2016–2019. PCA could separate several oceanographic signals based on the characteristics of their spatial distributions, although evident transient tectonic signals could not be confirmed from the observed pressure records during this observed period. The spatial distribution of the first four principal components (PCs) reflected the common component, inclined component along sea depth, longitude component, and parabola-like pattern, respectively. By subtracting each PC (in particular, PC-2 and PC-4) from the time series, we could significantly reduce the sea depth dependence of OBP records, which has been highlighted in several previous studies and is also evident in this region. We interpreted PCs 2–4 as the reflection of the strength and meandering of ocean geostrophic currents based on a comparison with the PC spatial distribution of the numerical oceanographic models. In addition, to evaluate the ability of PCA to separate transient tectonic signal from OBP time series, including oceanographic fluctuations, we conducted a synthetic ramp assuming an SSE by rectangular fault and then applied PCA. The assumed synthetic tectonic signal could be separated from the oceanographic signals and included in the principal component independently depending on its amplitude, suggesting that the spatial distribution of each PC would change if the amplitude of the synthetic signal were sufficiently large. We propose a transient event-detection method based on the spatial distribution difference of a specific PC with or without a tectonic signal. We used the normalized inner product (NIP) between these PCs as the indicator of their similarities. This method can detect transient tectonic signals more significantly than the moment-magnitude scale of 5.9 from OBP records. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake generated a surprisingly large near-trench slip, and earth scientists have devoted significant attention to understanding why. Some studies proposed special rupture mechanisms, such as extensive dynamic frictional weakening; others simulated this near-trench slip behavior without supposing the extensive dynamic weakening. However, we have not reached a decisive conclusion for this question due to limited spatial near-trench slip resolution. Hence, in this study we use new tsunami data recorded just above the large slip area in addition to offshore and onshore geodetic data to improve the spatial resolution of stress release in the Tohoku-Oki earthquake and quantitatively examine the mechanical state of the plate interface. A maximum slip of 53 m reaching the trench and an insignificant stress drop (< 3 MPa) at the shallowest portion of the fault were estimated. Based on our modeling results and the past experimental studies, it is suggested that friction at the shallow near-trench portion should be inherently low both before and during the earthquake. This result provides perspectives on the shallow slip behavior along the plate boundary, in which the strain energy accumulation at the deep portion of the fault accounts for the anomalous large shallow slip, but shallow mechanical coupling does not. A large shallow slip has been considered as a result of the release of sufficiently large strain energy at the shallow portion of the plate interface, but we suggest that shallow slips similar to that during the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake may occur in any subduction zones where the energy sufficiently accumulates only in the deeper portion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study proposes a new method for the uncertainty estimation of coseismic slip distribution on the plate interface deduced from real-time global navigation satellite system (GNSS) data and explores its application for tsunami inundation prediction. Jointly developed by the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan and Tohoku University, REGARD (REal-time GEONET Analysis system for Rapid Deformation monitoring) estimates coseismic fault models (a single rectangular fault model and slip distribution model) in real time to support tsunami prediction. The estimated results are adopted as part of the Disaster Information System, which is used by the Cabinet Office of the Government of Japan to assess tsunami inundation and damage. However, the REGARD system currently struggles to estimate the quantitative uncertainty of the estimated result, although the obtained result should contain both observation and modeling errors caused by the model settings. Understanding such quantitative uncertainties based on the input data is essential for utilizing this resource for disaster response. We developed an algorithm that estimates the coseismic slip distribution and its uncertainties using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We focused on the Nankai Trough of southwest Japan, where megathrust earthquakes have repeatedly occurred, and used simulation data to assume a Hoei-type earthquake. We divided the 2951 rectangular subfaults on the plate interface and designed a multistage sampling flow with stepwise perturbation groups. As a result, we successfully estimated the slip distribution and its uncertainty at the 95% confidence interval of the posterior probability density function. Furthermore, we developed a new visualization procedure that shows the risk of tsunami inundation and the probability on a map. Under the algorithm, we regarded the Markov chain Monte Carlo samples as individual fault models and clustered them using the k-means approach to obtain different tsunami source scenarios. We then calculated the parallel tsunami inundations and integrated the results on the map. This map, which expresses the uncertainties of tsunami inundation caused by uncertainties in the coseismic fault estimation, offers quantitative and real time insights into possible worst-case scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On December 7, 2012, an earthquake occurred within the Pacific Plate near the Japan Trench, which was composed of deep reverse- and shallow normal-faulting subevents (Mw 7.2 and 7.1, respectively) with a time interval of ~10 s. It had been known that the stress state within the plate was characterized by shallow tensile and deep horizontal compressional stresses due to the bending of the plate (bending stress). This study estimates the fault model of the doublet earthquake utilizing tsunami, teleseismic, and aftershock data and discusses the stress state within the incoming plate and spatiotemporal changes seen in it after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. We obtained the vertical extents of the fault planes of deep and shallow subevents as ~45–70 km and ~5 (the seafloor)–35 km, respectively. The down-dip edge of the shallow normal-faulting seismic zone (~30–35 km) deepened significantly compared to what it was in 2007 (~25 km). However, a quantitative comparison of the brittle strength and bending stress suggested that the change in stress after the Tohoku-Oki earthquake was too small to deepen the down-dip end of the seismicity by ~10 km. To explain the seismicity that occurred at a depth of ~30–35 km, the frictional coefficient in the normal-faulting depth range required would have had to be ~0.07 ≤ μ ≤ ~0.2, which is significantly smaller than the typical friction coefficient. This suggests the infiltration of pore fluid along the bending faults, down to ~30–35 km. It is considered that the plate had already yielded to a depth of ~35 km before 2011 and that the seismicity of the area was reactivated by the increase in stress from the Tohoku-Oki earthquake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Offshore ocean bottom pressure gauges (OBPs) are often used to estimate the spatial distribution of the initial sea-surface height associated with offshore earthquakes (the tsunami source model). However, the sensors sometimes record pressure changes that are neither related to tsunamis nor seafloor coseismic displacements (the non-tsunami components) due to sensor rotation or tilt associated with ground shaking or due to long-term mechanical drift. These non-tsunami components can be a source of error when accurately estimating the tsunami source model and thus need to be removed to provide reliable coastal tsunami forecasts. This paper proposes a new method that uses time-derivative waveforms of the pressure time-series from OBP records to robustly estimate the tsunami source model, even when OBP data are perturbed by non-tsunami components. Using OBP data associated with the 2011 Off-Miyagi earthquake (M w 7.2) and the 2016 Off-Mie earthquake (M w 5.9), the performance of the method was evaluated when reducing artefacts due to non-tsunami components. The tsunami source model was found to be largely distorted when a conventional inversion method was used (because of the non-tsunami components). However, the artefact was dramatically reduced when using time-derivative waveforms, and the predicted coastal tsunami waveforms fitted reasonably with those of observations, thereby suggesting that the new method effectively suppresses artefacts caused by non-tsunami components. As the tsunami source models estimated from pressure and time-derivative waveforms should be similar when OBP data are not perturbed by non-tsunami components, we would be able to assess whether OBP data are perturbed by non-tsunami components by evaluating that the tsunami source models estimated from pressure waveforms and from time-derivative waveforms are similar to each other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Te Araroa earthquake occurred on 2 September 2016 (local time) offshore of the northeastern coast of New Zealand's North Island (Mw 7.1). When this event occurred, ocean bottom pressure gauges (OBPs), installed ~170 km south of the source area, clearly recorded direct tsunami from the source to OBPs (~ −1.5 cm), and tsunami from coastal reflections (~2 cm). We estimate the centroid location that best reproduces the OBP waveforms. When using the direct wave alone, the centroid location is poorly constrained, with a horizontal uncertainty of ~100 km. By combining both direct and reflected tsunami waveforms, we obtain a centroid location near the Global Centroid Moment Tensor centroid (~80 km northeast from the coast) with smaller uncertainty (~40 km). We also estimate the earthquake source dimension (length and width) and found that the models using coastal reflections require a source dimension larger than ~30 km long. Based on the slip distribution obtained by the finite fault inversion, we obtain an energy‐based stress drop ΔσE of 1.0 MPa, consistent with typical earthquake stress drop values. This study shows that the information added by coastal reflected tsunami provides much tighter constraints on the centroid location, source dimension, and stress drop of offshore earthquakes, which is difficult to obtain from the onshore seismic data alone. Future studies should utilize the information provided by coastal reflected waves to improve earthquake source modeling using ocean bottom pressure data. Key Points: Tsunami from coastal reflected waves associated with the 2016 Te Araroa EQ are clearly observed by offshore ocean bottom pressure gaugesWe greatly reduce uncertainties in the centroid location and fault dimensions of the Te Araroa EQ using tsunami reflected from the coastLater tsunami arrivals should be used more widely to extract earthquake source information in the future [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to understand the characteristics of shallow very low-frequency (VLF) events as revealed by recent ocean-floor observation studies, we perform a trial simulation of earthquake cycles in the Tonankai district by taking the characteristics of the 1944 Tonankai earthquake and assuming that slow earthquakes occur on numerous small asperities. Our simulation results show that the increase of moment release rate of shallower VLF events in the pre-seismic stage of a megathrust earthquake is higher than that of deeper VLF events. This increase may make leveling change due to VLF swarms detectable at Dense Oceanfloor Network system for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET). We also introduce the time series of hydraulic pressure data at DONET, comparing with the leveling change expected from our numerical simulation. Since leveling change due to shallower VLF swarms is so local as to be incoherent, removal of the moving-averaged data from the data stacked by four nearby observation points in the same node may be useful to detect the short-term local leveling change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]