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In this research, smoothing methods and the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method for predicting producer milk prices in Turkey is implemented. Holt-Winters multiplicative (HWM) method and Holt-Winters additive (HWA) method are included in the exponential smoothing methods. Producer milk prices data belong to January 1st, 2010 to December 31st, 2019 period and gathered from the Turkish Statistical Institute. According to the given results, OLS method is fitted the data and has good root mean square error (RMSE) and determination coefficients (R²). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the first study using exponential smoothing methods and the Box-Jenkins method for forecasting consumer potato prices in Turkey is conducted. The exponential smoothing methods include the Holt-Winters multiplicative (HWM) method and the Holt-Winters additive (HWA) method. This study explores the application of the Holt-Winters approach to time series data of consumer potato prices covering the period from January 1st, 2005 to July 31st, 2019. The data were obtained from the database of the Turkish Statistical Institute. The paper explores and forecasts the trend of potato prices from August to December 2019. The results illustrate that the ARIMA method achieves good consumer potato price forecasting accuracy according to the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the root mean square error (RMSE) and the mean absolute deviation (MAD). As a result, the forecasted values from August 2019 to December 2019 are calculated in this paper via these methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]