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The article compares the cost of several types of workfare and income maintenance programs, using data from the 1967 Survey of Economic opportunity and from cost studies of training and day care programs. During the 1960s, rapidly rising welfare rolls in the U.S. coexisted with affluence and decreasing rates of unemployment. As a result of these trends, there has been increasing emphasis in some quarters on helping welfare families attain self-sufficiency or, in other words, substituting workfare for welfare. Recent statistics indicate that 23 percent of the recipients in federally subsidized public assistance programs are aged, blind, or disabled. Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) accounts for the remaining 77 percent, but in 1971 only 19 percent of AFDC families included a father living at home, and some of those fathers were not able-bodied.

This paper finds that participants in the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters have submitted forecasts that are consistent with a (mostly forward-looking) empirical version of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the euro area. The estimation technique takes advantage of the panel nature of the Survey of Professional Forecasters' dataset to exploit both its time series and cross-section dimensions, and to control for unobservable individual heterogeneity across forecasters. The estimation results suggest that euro-area inflation forecasts have reacted less to unemployment forecasts after the start of the financial crisis but another cost measure (energy inflation) remains significant. This finding is consistent with a flatter Phillips Curve in the euro area after 2007. However, the reasons suggested by the International Monetary Fund for this finding, namely a better anchoring of inflation expectations and increases in structural unemployment do not seem to find support in the survey data. Instead, the expectations for compensation per employee submitted by professional forecasters are consistent with the existence of downward real-wage rigidities in euro-area labour markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to take a forecasting approach to examine the relationship between the US birth rate, marriage rate, and economic conditions (measured by both realized unemployment and expected unemployment). The expectation data come from the Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Design/methodology/approach – Utilizing monthly data, the authors first specify a univariate and three augmented autoregressive integrated moving average forecasting models for 1975-2001. Second, the authors use recursive estimation to generate multi-period forecasts of the birth rate for 2002-2008. Third, the authors employ standard evaluation methods to compare the predictive information content of the forecasts. Findings – First, the birth rate is pro-cyclical. Second, the marriage rate contains useful predictive information for the birth rate. Third, controlling for past information in the birth and marriage rates, both realized and expected unemployment embody useful information for predicting the birth rate. Fourth, expected unemployment is a more informative indicator than realized unemployment. Practical implications – The finding that the birth rate is pro-cyclical emphasizes the importance of economic stability in promoting childbearing, and the authors suggest counter-cyclical macroeconomic policy to shield families from major shocks. A stable economy, and especially one where families are optimistic about the future, promotes childbearing. The results also empower policymakers to analyze systematically the impact of changes to the structure of marriage on childbearing. Originality/value – This appears to be the first study that utilizes a forecasting approach to better understand the complex relationships between childbearing, marriage, and macroeconomic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – Grounded in an emergent recognition that those people in formal employment conduct the vast majority of work in the shadow economy, the purpose of this paper is to evaluate for the first time the degree to which shadow work is conducted by those in formal jobs and the characteristics of those in formal employment who participate in the shadow economy. Design/methodology/approach – To do this, the authors report a 2007 survey of participation in the shadow economy involving 26,659 face-to-face interviews conducted in 27 European Union (EU) member states. Findings – The finding is that in the EU, the formally employed undertake a disproportionate share of work in the shadow economy. Analysing the characteristics of the employed most likely to work in the shadow economy, however, it is those who benefit least from the formal economy, namely, younger unmarried men and on lower incomes living in rural areas, working in the construction sector and in small firms. Research limitations/implications – The outcome is a tentative call for recognition that although people in formal employment conduct the vast majority of work in the shadow economy, these are mostly particular vulnerable and weaker groups of the formally employed. Whether similar findings prevail at other spatial scales and in other global regions now needs investigating. Practical implications – This survey displays the need for policy not to target the unemployed but particular groups of the formally employed. Originality/value – The first extensive evaluation of the extent to which shadow work is conducted by those in formal jobs and the characteristics of those in formal employment who participate in the shadow economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Even after four decades of research it remains unclear, whether presidential popularity depends on the state of the economy. While about half of all studies for the United States find a significant effect of unemployment and inflation on presidential popularity, the others do not. Additional economic issues have rarely been studied. In this survey article we study the likely causes for the inconclusive findings. While various factors have an influence on the results, especially the choice of the sample period is of crucial importance. While in the very long run we find unemployment and inflation to have a robust effect on presidential approval, this holds not true for shorter sub-periods. This result might indicate that the popularity function is instable over time. However, the findings might also be taken as an indication that the most often employed linear estimation approach is inadequate. Further research on these issues is necessary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Using the results of surveys of senior company managers to measure the strictness of hiring and firing regulation, this article finds that stricter regulation moderately increased unemployment in developing countries over 1992 to 2008. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper investigates unemployment risk and job prospects of males and females in the two Greece's most populated regions - Attica and Central Macedonia - during the implementation of the first Community Support Framework (1989-1993). Originality lies in the separate analyses for males and females. The sample is based on anonymous records (micro-data) of the Labour Force Survey for both employed and unemployed at Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics-2 level. Firstly, social and demographic characteristics increasing the odds of being employed are examined - i.e. age, marital status, residence, education and training. Secondly, the issue of whether University graduates have lesser odds of being employed is investigated. The findings indicate that gender differences in odds of being employed appear mainly across education levels. Moreover, higher education attainment increases the odds of being employed particularly for females. The paper delivers conclusions that can be used for comparative research among European regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The purpose of the paper was to establish the implications of globalisation for labour markets when efficiency wages create endogenous wage rigidity and to re-examine the credibility of the arguments that call for deregulation, more wage flexibility and less social protection in this context. Design/methodology/approach – The role of efficiency wages is reviewed in the traditional international economics theory, new economic geography and the neo-Schumpeterian perspective towards international competitiveness. Findings – First, taking into account endogenous sources of wage rigidity has different implications for employment, inequality, regional growth convergence and the role of the welfare state in the context of international competitiveness, from those derived when assuming them away or taking them as imposed by labour market institutions. Second, policies that would substantially reduce social security or lead to cost-cuts may have an adverse effect on effort and thus on productivity. Originality/value – To the author's knowledge, this paper is the only review in the literature that concentrates on efficiency wages applied in international trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information on the labor statistics in the U.S. by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. It says that employment measures from two surveys and information on compensation, provided by the Employment Cost Index (ECI) program, are included in the labor market indicators. It presents data collected from the Current Population Survey, household interviews regarding on employment, by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. It also shows information on the unemployment status in each state in the U.S.

The paper explores and interprets changes in regional economic structure in the Midwest region of the USA and its influence on regional economic growth over the past three decades. Three, interrelated conundra are examined in the search for explanation of why the economic performance of one particular state (Illinois) has been so anemic over the period 1990–2006. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many official surveys give us important information about labor markets and unemployment, as well as other statistics. However, these surveys reveal only the net gains or losses in employment over a given period. Consequently, how many gross hires and separations lie behind the net changes is missing from these statistical releases. Data on gross flows turn up additional valuable information. In this article, Shigeru Fujita uses such data to examine cyclical changes in the pace of the worker reallocation process and its effects on the U.S. labor market. INSET: Explaining Fluctuations in the Job Finding Rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives. This study examines how welfare participation and employment affect women's wages. Methods. We use longitudinal data from the 1996 Survey of Income and Program Participation and fixed-effects regression models to test our hypotheses. Results. Our results indicate that time spent on welfare while unemployed results in a wage penalty that is similar to the penalty associated with nonwelfare work breaks. Time spent on welfare while employed has no effect on wages, unlike the strong positive impact of nonwelfare work periods. Conclusions. Working while on welfare does appear to prevent further wage deterioration, but does not lead to substantial wage growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines five types of labour market institutions: statutory minimum wages, working-time regulations, hiring and firing regulations, trade unions and industrial relations. It uses the results of surveys that were carried our between 1996 and 2001 among senior business executives from 12 transition countries. In these surveys the managers characterised the institutions of their respective countries. The article conducts multivariate regressions incorporating the survey results and finds that high statutory minimum wages, strict working-time regulations, tight hiring and firing regulations, powerful unions as well as confrontational industrial relations lead to higher unemployment and lower employment, mainly among the problem groups of the labour market: the low-skilled, the long-term unemployed, young people and women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examines the employment variables that are included in small business surveys conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) in the U.S. Survey measures of the NFIB that are related to the unemployment measure being computed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Actual and predicted rates of unemployment from 2001 to 2004; Actual and predicted level of employment based on gross domestic product levels from 1990 to 2000.

Abstract. Economists often use Gallup Poll data on presidential performance to analyze the interaction between politics and the state of the macroeconomy. The household survey undertaken by the Survey Research Center (SRC) of the University of Michigan provides an alternative data base. The SRC asks respondents about the government's performance specifically with respect to inflation and unemployment. We compare whether the Gallup or SRC data are the more useful for estimating the public's social preference function between inflation and unemployment for the Carter, Reagan, Bush and Clinton presidencies. The estimates that use Gallup Poll data are unsatisfactory because for two of the periods the coefficients of inflation and unemployment are not well estimated and for one period there is serial correlation of the residuals. The estimates using the SRC data set are satisfactory and the results are consistent with economic theory. We conclude that a researcher using survey data to estimate the public's reaction to varying rates of inflation and unemployment should prefer the SRC series when it is available.. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses various issues related to the measurement of the duration of unemployment. It is stated that the only easily available unemployment duration statistics at the beginning of the 1970s was the duration of uncompleted spells--the time the unemployed had been unemployed until the time of the survey. It is highlighted that several researchers were not impressed by the statistic of the period and held them insufficient, and sometimes even irrelevant. It is viewed that it needs to be stressed that the traditional statistic is not the only relevant measure of unemployment duration.

This paper summarizes results from a validation study in which administrative records from a large manufacturing company are used to validate survey responses of a sample of workers from that company. Relatively little evidence of bias is found in reports of prior-year earnings and unemployment, the more salient fringe benefits, and union status. Quite diverse amounts of error variance are found in the survey reports, ranging from very small for reports of job tenure, annual earnings, and annual unemployment to very large for work hours and especially for a measure of hourly earnings constructed by dividing annual earnings by annual work hours. Furthermore, it is found that the conventional assumptions regarding measurement error in earnings models are not justified. In particular, there appears to be an important correlation between the measurement error in the reports of earnings and the level of job tenure, producing a bias in the estimated payoff to job tenure of roughly 30%. This result suggests a need for a greater understanding of the correlates of survey response errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article provides evidence about the male unemployed in Great Britain from the Family Expenditure Survey (FES) from 1972 to 1980. It focuses on the occupation and earnings in the last jobs of the unemployed. The article demonstrates the value of a household survey as a source for studying unemployment. It discusses the importance of establishing the credentials of household surveys due to the substantial element of non-response that occurs and the small sample sizes in individual years.

Most data used to study the durations of unemployment spells come from the Current Population Survey (CPS), which is a point-in-time survey and gives an incomplete picture of the underlying duration distribution. We introduce a new sample of completed unemployment spells obtained from panel data and apply CPS sampling and reporting techniques to replicate the type of data used by other researchers. Predicted duration distributions derived from this CPS-like data are then compared to the actual distribution. We conclude that the best inferences that can be made about unemployment durations by using CPS-like data are seriously biased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Keynesian economists hold it to be self-evident that business cycles are characterized by involuntary unemployment. But construction of a model of the cycle with involuntary unemployment faces the obvious difficulty of explaining why the labor market does not clear. Involuntarily unemployed people, by definition, want to work at less than the going wage rate. This article surveys a recent literature which offers a convincing and coherent explanation why firms may find it unprofitable to cut wages in the presence of involuntary unemployment. The models surveyed are variants of the efficiency wage hypothesis, according to which, labor productivity depends on the real wage paid by the firm. If wage cuts harm productivity, then cutting wages may end up raising labor costs. The first section of the article describes some of the general implications of the efficiency-wage hypothesis in its simplest form. The second section describes four distinct microeconomic approaches which justify the relation between wages and productivity.

The following article summarises a report of a survey organised by the I.L.O. under the Expanded Programme of Technical Assistance. It is felt that the information on the methods used and the type of results obtained may be of interest outside Ceylon in view of the growing attention being paid to studies of underemployment and unemployment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this article is to review several strategic assumptions regarding labor productivity and unemployment in the context of economic development theories, and to test these assumptions against some recently available statistical data. The results described throw in doubt some fundamental conclusions derived from models using the concept of surplus labor and disguised unemployment and indicate the need for a more thorough use of available statistics in the analysis of development problems. The focus of the discussion is Indian agriculture that is frequently cited as a classic case of disguised unemployment. The data are largely drawn from the extensive 17-volume of Farm Management Studies of Indian agriculture, which covered on a sample basis, but in considerable depth, the six main agricultural regions of India. It is important to note that the Farm Management data were not based on a small local survey but involved 2,962 holdings covering the major crops grown in India. A large number of specially trained field inspectors observed farm operations in the sample districts and prepared cost-accounting records for the farms on a regular, almost daily, basis for a three-year period.

With the increasing complexity and industrialization of society, work for many people has become more and more simply a means toward the end of earning a living. However, there is a danger of over-generalizing this trend and pushing it to its logical conclusion, expecting that working serves only a means function. The present study of the meaning of work among a national sample of employed men in the U.S. indicates, that for most men having a job, serves other functions than the one of earning a living. In fact, even if they had enough money to support themselves, they would still want to work. Working gives them a feeling of being tied into the larger society, of having something to do, of having a purpose in life. These other functions which working serves are evidently not seen as available in non-work activities. The particularly interesting results of this national sample study on the meaning of working is that a man does not have to be at the age of retirement or be immediately threatened by unemployment to be able to imagine what not working would mean to him.

The article provides a comparative analysis of labor market indicators provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor market indicators include employment measures from two major surveys and information on rates of change on compensation provided by the Employment Cost Index program. The labor force participation rate, the employment-population ratio and unemployment rates for major demographic groups are based on the Current Population Survey, while measures of employment and average weekly hours by major industry sector are given using nonfarm payroll data. The Employment Cost Index is chosen from a variety of compensation and wage measures because it provides a comprehensive measure of employer costs for hiring labor, not just outlays for wages, and it is not affected by employment shifts among occupation and industries. Measures of rates of change of compensation and wages from the Employment Cost Index program are provided for all civilian nonfarm workers and for all private nonfarm workers. Measures of changes in consumer prices for all urban consumers; producer prices by stage of processing; overall prices by stage processing; and overall export and import price indexes are given. Measures of productivity are provided for major sectors. Alternative measures of wages and compensation rates of change reflect the overall trend in labor costs. Differences in concepts and scope, related to the specific purposes of the series, contribute to the variation in changes among the individual measures.

Presents a list of articles about economics, published in the 2003 issue of the "Journal of Economic Surveys," such as "Growth and Unemployment: Towards a Theoretical Integration,' by Fabio Aricó