1. Earliest infections predict the age distribution of seasonal influenza A cases.
- Author
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Arevalo P, McLean HQ, Belongia EA, and Cobey S
- Subjects
- Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Case-Control Studies, Child, Child, Preschool, Cohort Studies, Humans, Incidence, Infant, Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype immunology, Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype immunology, Influenza, Human virology, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Prevalence, Seasons, Wisconsin epidemiology, Young Adult, Age Distribution, Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype physiology, Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype physiology, Influenza Vaccines administration & dosage, Influenza, Human epidemiology, Vaccination statistics & numerical data
- Abstract
Seasonal variation in the age distribution of influenza A cases suggests that factors other than age shape susceptibility to medically attended infection. We ask whether these differences can be partly explained by protection conferred by childhood influenza infection, which has lasting impacts on immune responses to influenza and protection against new influenza A subtypes (phenomena known as original antigenic sin and immune imprinting). Fitting a statistical model to data from studies of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE), we find that primary infection appears to reduce the risk of medically attended infection with that subtype throughout life. This effect is stronger for H1N1 compared to H3N2. Additionally, we find evidence that VE varies with both age and birth year, suggesting that VE is sensitive to early exposures. Our findings may improve estimates of age-specific risk and VE in similarly vaccinated populations and thus improve forecasting and vaccination strategies to combat seasonal influenza., Competing Interests: PA, EB, SC No competing interests declared, HM has received funding from Seqirus, unrelated to this work. The author has no other competing interests to declare, (© 2020, Arevalo et al.)
- Published
- 2020
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