Search

In a low or middle income country, determining the correct number of routine vaccines to order at a health clinic can be difficult, especially given the variability in the number of patients arriving, minimal vaccination days and resource (e.g., information technology and refrigerator space) constraints. We developed a spreadsheet model to determine the potential impact of different ordering policies, basing orders on the arrival rates seen in the previous 1, 3, 6, or 12 sessions, or on long-term historical averages (where these might be available) along with various buffer stock levels (range: 5-50%). Experiments varied patient arrival rates (mean range: 1-30 per session), arrival rate distributions (Poisson, Normal, and Uniform) and vaccine vial sizes (range: 1-dose to 10-dose vials). It was found that when the number of doses per vial is small and the expected number of patients is low, the ordering policy has a more significant impact on the ability to meet demand. Using data from more prior sessions to determine arrival rates generally equates to a better ability to meet demand, although the marginal benefit is relatively small after more than 6 sessions are averaged. As expected, the addition of more buffer is helpful in obtaining better performance; however, this advantage also has notable diminishing returns. In general, the long-term demand rate, the vial sizes of the vaccines used and the method of determining the patient arrival rate all have an effect on the ability of a clinic to maximize the demand that is met., (Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Single-dose vaccine formats can prevent clinic-level vaccine wastage but may incur higher production, medical waste disposal, and storage costs than multi-dose formats. To help guide vaccine developers, manufacturers, distributors, and purchasers, we developed a computational model to predict the potential economic impact of various single-dose versus multi-dose measles (MEA), hemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG), yellow fever (YF), and pentavalent (DTP-HepB-Hib) vaccine formats. Lower patient demand favors fewer dose formats. The mean daily patient arrival thresholds for each vaccine format are as follows: for the MEA vaccine, 2 patients/day (below which the single-dose vial and above which the 10-dose vial are least costly); BCG vaccine, 6 patients/day (below, 10-dose vial; above, 20-dose vial); Hib vaccine, 5 patients/day (below, single-dose vial; above, 10-dose vial); YF vaccine, 33 patients/day (below, 5-dose vials; above 50-dose vial); and DTP-HepB-Hib vaccine, 5 patients/day (below, single-dose vial; above, 10-dose vial)., ((c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background and Objectives: The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices has identified health care workers (HCWs) as a priority group to receive influenza vaccine. Although the importance of HCW to the health care system is well understood, the potential role of HCW in transmission during an epidemic has not been clearly established., Methods: Using a standard SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) framework similar to previously developed pandemic models, we developed an agent-based model (ABM) of Allegheny County, PA, that incorporates the key health care system features to simulate the spread of an influenza epidemic and its effect on hospital-based HCWs., Findings: Our simulation runs found the secondary attack rate among unprotected HCWs to be approximately 60% higher (54.3%) as that of all adults (34.1%), which would result in substantial absenteeism and additional risk to HCW families. Understanding how a pandemic may affect HCWs, who must be available to treat infected patients as well as patients with other medical conditions, is crucial to policy makers' and hospital administrators' preparedness planning.

Epidemics of infectious diseases often occur in predictable limit cycles. Theory suggests these cycles can be disrupted by high amplitude seasonal fluctuations in transmission rates, resulting in deterministic chaos. However, persistent deterministic chaos has never been observed, in part because sufficiently large oscillations in transmission rates are uncommon. Where they do occur, the resulting deep epidemic troughs break the chain of transmission, leading to epidemic extinction, even in large cities. Here we demonstrate a new path to locally persistent chaotic epidemics via subtle shifts in seasonal patterns of transmission, rather than through high-amplitude fluctuations in transmission rates. We base our analysis on a comparison of measles incidence in 80 major cities in the prevaccination era United States and United Kingdom. Unlike the regular limit cycles seen in the UK, measles cycles in US cities consistently exhibit spontaneous shifts in epidemic periodicity resulting in chaotic patterns. We show that these patterns were driven by small systematic differences between countries in the duration of the summer period of low transmission. This example demonstrates empirically that small perturbations in disease transmission patterns can fundamentally alter the regularity and spatiotemporal coherence of epidemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Development of strategies for mitigating the severity of a new influenza pandemic is now a top global public health priority. Influenza prevention and containment strategies can be considered under the broad categories of antiviral, vaccine and non-pharmaceutical (case isolation, household quarantine, school or workplace closure, restrictions on travel) measures. Mathematical models are powerful tools for exploring this complex landscape of intervention strategies and quantifying the potential costs and benefits of different options. Here we use a large-scale epidemic simulation to examine intervention options should initial containment of a novel influenza outbreak fail, using Great Britain and the United States as examples. We find that border restrictions and/or internal travel restrictions are unlikely to delay spread by more than 2–3 weeks unless more than 99% effective. School closure during the peak of a pandemic can reduce peak attack rates by up to 40%, but has little impact on overall attack rates, whereas case isolation or household quarantine could have a significant impact, if feasible. Treatment of clinical cases can reduce transmission, but only if antivirals are given within a day of symptoms starting. Given enough drugs for 50% of the population, household-based prophylaxis coupled with reactive school closure could reduce clinical attack rates by 40–50%. More widespread prophylaxis would be even more logistically challenging but might reduce attack rates by over 75%. Vaccine stockpiled in advance of a pandemic could significantly reduce attack rates even if of low efficacy. Estimates of policy effectiveness will change if the characteristics of a future pandemic strain differ substantially from those seen in past pandemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I cell avidity is critical to viral clearance, but mechanisms of CD8+ T cell avidity maturation are poorly understood. Here, we find that IL-15 mediates two mechanisms of avidity maturation. (i) By selection at the population level, lL-1 5 promotes greater survival of high-compared with low-avidity cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs). High-avidity CTLs express higher levels of 1L-l5Rα and persist longer by homeostatic proliferation. (ii) At the individual cell level, 11-15 induces higher levels of surface coreceptor CD8αβ, increasing functional avidity. 11-15 during priming selects or induces higher- avidity CTLs. Conversely, high-avidity cris are diminished in IL-15Rα knockout mice. These results provide an explanation of CD8+ T cell avidity maturation and may contribute to the design of novel vaccines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors discuss the challenges in interpreting the unexpected findings on the clinical trial for a vaccine against dengue virus. They say that dengue disease is caused by four interacting viral serotypes in which the dengue-2 (DENV-2) serotype failed to interact in the dengue vaccine trial. They state that it is important to discuss the interpretability of efficacy results for dengue vaccine that are based on clinical outcomes.

The article reports on the reasults of kayvon Modjarrad and Martin R Gaudinski and colleagues of phase 1 clinical trial of people who were tested for Zika Vaccines.

Highlights: [•] We explore the population impact of partially effective dengue vaccines (PEV). [•] We consider scenarios of heterogeneity between serotypes. [•] We use an age-stratified compartmental dengue transmission model. [•] We show that PEV could be important tools for dengue control. [•] We examine direct vs. indirect effects of vaccination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses investigation into cases of contagious diseases recorded in the U.S. between 1888 and 2011. Weekly surveillance data about notifiable diseases published in the "Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report" of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the said period were used as reference. It also describes how vaccination programs contributed to the decline of weekly cases of hepatitis A, diphtheria, and measles, among other diseases.

Abstract: Widespread avoidance of Measles–Mumps–Rubella vaccination (MMR), with a consequent increase in the incidence of major measles outbreaks, demonstrates that the effectiveness of vaccination programs can be thwarted by the public misperceptions of vaccine risk. By coupling game theory and epidemic models, we examine vaccination choice among populations stratified into two behavioral groups: vaccine skeptics and vaccine believers. The two behavioral groups are assumed to be heterogeneous with respect to their perceptions of vaccine and infection risks. We demonstrate that the pursuit of self-interest among vaccine skeptics often leads to vaccination levels that are suboptimal for a population, even if complete coverage is achieved among vaccine believers. The demand for measles vaccine across populations driven by individual self-interest was found to be more sensitive to the proportion of vaccine skeptics than to the extent to which vaccine skeptics misperceive the risk of vaccine. Furthermore, as the number of vaccine skeptics increases, the probability of infection among vaccine skeptics increases initially, but it decreases once the vaccine skeptics begin receiving the vaccination, if both behavioral groups are vaccinated according to individual self-interest. Our results show that the discrepancy between the coverages of measles vaccine that are driven by self-interest and those driven by population interest becomes larger when the cost of vaccination increases. This research illustrates the importance of public education on vaccine safety and infection risk in order to maintain vaccination levels that are sufficient to maintain herd immunity. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Background: Better understanding the possible effects of vaccinating employees is important and can help policymakers and businesses plan vaccine distribution and administration logistics, especially with the current H1N1 influenza vaccine in short supply. Purpose: This article aims to determine the effects of varying vaccine coverage, compliance, administration rates, prioritization, and timing among employees during an influenza pandemic. Methods: As part of the H1N1 influenza planning efforts of the Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study network, an agent-based computer simulation model was developed for the Washington DC metropolitan region, encompassing five metropolitan statistical areas. Each simulation run involved introducing 100 infectious individuals to initiate a 1.3 reproductive-rate (R0) epidemic, consistent with H1N1 parameters to date. Another set of scenarios represented a R0=1.6 epidemic. Results: An unmitigated epidemic resulted in substantial productivity losses (a mean of $112.6 million for a serologic 15% attack rate and $193.8 million for a serologic 25% attack rate), even with the relatively low estimated mortality impact of H1N1. Although vaccinating Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices–defined priority groups resulted in the largest savings, vaccinating all remaining workers captured additional savings and, in fact, reduced healthcare workers'' and critical infrastructure workers'' chances of infection. Moreover, although employee vaccination compliance affected the epidemic, once 20% compliance was achieved, additional increases in compliance provided less incremental benefit. Even though a vast majority of the workplaces in the DC metropolitan region had fewer than 100 employees, focusing on vaccinating only those in larger firms (≥100 employees) was just as effective in mitigating the epidemic as trying to vaccinate employees in all workplaces. Conclusions: Timely vaccination of at least 20% of the large-company workforce can play an important role in epidemic mitigation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: Background: A bioterrorist release of smallpox is a constant threat to the population of the USA and other countries. Design: A stochastic simulation model of the spread of smallpox due to a large bioterrorist attack in a structured population was constructed. Disease natural history parameter estimates, time lines of behavioral activities, and control scenarios were based on the literature and on the consensus opinion of a panel of smallpox experts. Results: The authors found that surveillance and containment, i.e., isolation of known cases and vaccination of their close contacts, would be sufficient to effectively contain a large intentional smallpox release. Given that surveillance and containment measures are in place, preemptive vaccination of hospital workers would further reduce the number of smallpox cases and deaths but would require large numbers of prevaccinations. High levels of reactive mass vaccination after the outbreak begins would further reduce smallpox cases and deaths to a minimum, but would require even larger numbers of vaccinations. Reactive closure of schools would have a minimal effect. Conclusion: A rapid and well-organized response to a bioterrorist attack would be necessary for effective surveillance and containment to control spread. Preemptive vaccination of hospital workers and reactive vaccination of the target population would further limit spread, but at a cost of many more vaccinated. This cost in resources and potential harm due to vaccination will have to be weighed against the potential benefits should an attack occur. Prevaccination of the general population is not necessary. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Natural infection and vaccination with a live-attenuated measles virus (MV) induce CD8+ T-cell-mediated immune responses that may play a central role in controlling MV infection. In this study, we show that newly identified human HLA-A2 epitopes from MV hemagglutinin (H) and fusion (F) proteins induced protective immunity in HLA-A2 transgenic mice challenged with recombinant vaccinia viruses expressing F or H protein. HLA-A2 epitopes were predicted and synthesized. Five and four peptides from H and F, respectively, bound to HLA-A2 molecules in a T2-binding assay, and four from H and two from F could induce peptide-specific CD8+ T cell responses in HLA-A2 transgenic mice. Further experiments proved that three peptides from H (H9-567, H10-250, and H10-516) and one from F protein (F9-57) were endogenously processed and presented on HLA-A2 molecules. All peptides tested in this study are common to 5 different strains of MV including Edmonston. In both A2Kb and HHD-2 mice, the identified peptide epitopes induced protective immunity against recombinant vaccinia viruses expressing H or F. Because F and H proteins induce neutralizing antibodies, they are major components of new vaccine strategies, and therefore data from this study will contribute to the development of new vaccines against MV infection. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: Objective: To characterize the province-specific incidence patterns of measles in Cameroon and determine if an increase in measles incidence during the period January 2000–June 2001 is consistent with coincident epidemics in several regions with different inter-epidemic periods. Method: Periodic behavior of the monthly measles incidence time-series from each province of Cameroon was analyzed using time-series analysis and cluster techniques. Cumulative incidence in each province of Cameroon over a five-year period was associated with birth rates, and vaccination coverage. Results: Distinct patterns of measles incidence were found in two different areas of Cameroon. The three northern-most provinces experience major epidemics every year. Seven southern provinces show evidence of experiencing major epidemics every third year. In January 2000, Cameroon experienced coincident peaks in these two cycles and thus an increase in measles incidence countrywide over the previous year. Higher cumulative province-specific incidence rates were associated with higher birth rates and lower routine vaccination coverage rates. Conclusion: Within one country, two dramatically different dynamic patterns of measles incidence were observed. Long-term surveillance data is crucial to the evaluation of measles immunization campaigns. The availability of a five-year record of measles incidence in Cameroon reveals an interesting dynamic pattern of measles incidence that accounts for the increase in countrywide incidence in 2000–2001. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

A letter to the editor is presented in response to the article "Clinical efficacy and safety of a novel tetravalent dengue vaccine in healthy children in Asia: a phase 3, randomised, observer-masked, placebo-controlled trial" by Maria Rosario Capeding and colleagues in the October 11, 2014 issue.

Background: In December 2009, when the H1N1 influenza pandemic appeared to be subsiding, public health officials and unvaccinated individuals faced the question of whether continued H1N1 immunization was still worthwhile. Purpose: To delineate what combinations of possible mechanisms could generate a third pandemic wave and then explore whether vaccinating the population at different rates and times would mitigate the wave. Methods: As part of ongoing work with the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response at the USDHHS during the H1N1 influenza pandemic, the University of Pittsburgh Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study team employed an agent-based computer simulation model of the Washington DC metropolitan region to delineate what mechanisms could generate a “third pandemic wave” and explored whether vaccinating the population at different rates and times would mitigate the wave. This model included explicit representations of the region''s individuals, school systems, workplaces/commutes, households, and communities. Results: Three mechanisms were identified that could cause a third pandemic wave; substantially increased viral transmissibility from seasonal forcing (changing influenza transmission with changing environmental conditions, i.e., seasons) and progressive viral adaptation; an immune escape variant; and changes in social mixing from holiday school closures. Implementing vaccination for these mechanisms, even during the down-slope of the fall epidemic wave, significantly mitigated the third wave. Scenarios showed the gains from initiating vaccination earlier, increasing the speed of vaccination, and prioritizing population subgroups based on Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommendations. Conclusions: Additional waves in an epidemic can be mitigated by vaccination even when an epidemic appears to be waning. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]