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This paper examines ex-ante impacts of two policy interventions that improve productivity of local-breed cows through artificial insemination (AI) and producers' access to distant markets through a dairy market hub. The majority of cattle in Kilosa district in Tanzania are local low productivity breeds kept by smallholders and agro-pastoralists. Milk production is seasonal, which constrains producers' access to distant urban markets, constrains producers' incomes and restricts profitability in dairy processing. We developed and evaluated an integrated system dynamics (SD) simulation model that captures many relevant feedbacks between the biological dynamics of dairy cattle production, the economics of milk market access, and the impacts of rainfall as an environmental factor. Our analysis indicated that in the short (1 year) and medium (5-year) term, policy interventions have a negative effect on producers' income due to high AI costs. However, in the long term (5+ years), producers' income from dairy cattle activities markedly increases (by, on average, 7% per year). The results show the potential for upgrading the smallholder dairy value chain in Kilosa, but achievement of this result may require financial support to producers in the initial stages (first 5 years) of the interventions, particularly to offset AI costs, as well as additional consideration of post-farm value chain costs. Furthermore, institutional aspects of dairy market hub have substantial effects on trade-offs amongst performance measures (e.g. higher profit vs. milk consumption at producer's household) with gain in cumulative profit coming at the expense of a proportional and substantial reduction in home milk consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modern primary industry makes obsolete the conventional analysis of private and social performance. This is due to the dominance of chain failure as opposed to the more familiar market failure. This paper makes the case that value addition dominates aspirations for primary industries, and vertical coordination and shifts in commercial power balances feature in the sharing of benefits within value chains. Moreover, complexity in chain relationships and some particular features of primary industry bring challenges to forward planning and concerted effort. Value addition in New Zealand's forestry and wood products' industry presents several such challenges, and these are examined with a qualitative system dynamics model. Potential policy responses that eliminate chain failure are discussed in association with the Australian beef industry research model. The paper advocates joint industry-university-government action in terms of research and skills development. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The liberalization of beef exports in Botswana is hotly debated among policy makers and relevant value chain actors. While some policy makers argue that such a move might increase prices for producers and make beef unaffordable for consumers, others suggest an open market would reduce the profitability of the beef sector in Botswana. At the same time, these impacts will be mediated by the presence of animal disease and the availability of sufficient feed and water. In this paper, we constructed an integrated system dynamics (SD) model that captures the feedbacks between the biological dynamics of cattle production, the economics of animal and meat marketing and trade, and the impacts that environmental pressures such as rainfall and animal disease have on the system. We used this model to run a series of scenarios associated with market liberalization and animal health shocks to quantify their impacts throughout the value chain, taking into account the feedbacks between biology, markets, and environment on the value chain itself. This approach allows for a holistic evaluation of policy options on different chain actors and whole chain performance, and provides a knowledge base for prioritizing interventions. Model results suggested that although disease control policies benefit all value chain actors, gains from market liberalization come at the expense of substantial losses to Botswana Meat Commission (BMC) and its contracted feedlots. They also suggest that combining market liberalization policy reforms with better animal disease controls greatly improved the financial performance of all value chain actors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Low and middle-income countries increasingly face a triple burden of malnutrition encompassing undernutrition, micronutrient deficiency, and excessive energy consumption contributing to overweight and obesity. Food systems are also becoming more complex, supported by investments in food processing and retailing. Traditional approaches addressing hunger, typically based on agricultural development, are deemed insufficient alone to address the problem and attention is now being directed to food value chains, although experience is currently limited. To assess the state of science and identify knowledge gaps, an integrative review of the broad topic of value chains and diet quality was undertaken, with particular focus on interventions and their related impact pathways. Interventions were classified according to their primary orientation: to increase the availability, accessibility, or desirability of nutritious food. We identified 24 separate interventions associated with 10 different impact pathways, demonstrating the numerous entry points and large potential for value chain interventions to influence diet quality. However, case study evidence regarding effectiveness remains scant. Most studies addressed individual nutrient-rich commodities that could address a nutritional deficiency in the community of interest. Rarely was overall diet quality assessed, and future studies could benefit from taking a wider perspective of dietary patterns and food substitutions. The value chain analytical approach was deemed valuable due to its consumer orientation that seeks to understand how food products are used and what motivates their choice. The systems perspective is also important as it considers the roles of actors involved in food production, distribution, marketing, and regulation. However, few studies directly engaged with the subject of the local food environment as the bridge connecting food production and food choice. The challenge is to combat the increasing prevalence of processed foods of low nutritional value through interventions that lead to nutritious food becoming more conveniently available, affordable, and desirable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Achieving inclusive value chain development is a challenging task due to the complex and dynamic nature of interconnected value chains and their social, economic, and ecological dimensions. While many policies and intervention options exist to upgrade value chains, there are fewer methods that can be used to understand and quantify the multidimensional impacts that value chain policies and interventions may have throughout the value chain. This paper addresses this methodological gap by employing a system dynamics (SD) modeling approach. SD models allow us to model and quantify the processes and relationships inherent in the value chain through simulations, serving as a policy laboratory for the empirical assessment of intervention options. An SD model of the Matiguás dairy value chain in Nicaragua was developed and tested through a participatory modeling process. Our research tested and evaluated the short-, medium-, and long-term impacts of specific interventions and policies in the Matiguás dairy value chain with the goal of strengthening the competitiveness and inclusion of small- and medium-scale producers. These interventions centered on improving the feeding system, which was identified by stakeholders as the critical constraint to competitiveness. The policy analysis reveals that both improved pastures and increased use of concentrates raise producer milk productivity by 5% and 11%, respectively in the long run, but are also expensive strategies for smallholder producers, leading to a reduction in profits relative to the baseline by 1% and 3%, respectively. Consequently, policymakers should identify strategies that help to reduce concentrate costs and support producers with investments in improved pasture, while also promoting training in pasture management skills. Indeed, in the long-run, model results reveal that investment and training in pasture management results in a 30% and 35% increase in milk production during the wet and dry season, respectively. Simulation results further highlighted that intensifying the feeding system to improve cow milk yields is mainly profitable in the long term, and thus requires a longer-term perspective by policymakers. The model provides a deeper understanding of the complex and dynamic nature of the Matiguás dairy value chain and the interactions between markets, coordination aspects, biophysical phenomena, and income. The system dynamics approach to value chain analysis further addresses a major analytical shortcoming in value chain analysis and provides decision makers with an improved platform for planning and policy formulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pig production in peri-urban smallholder value chains in Uganda is severely constrained by impact of disease, particularly African swine fever (ASF), and the economic consequences of an inefficient pig value chain. Interventions in the form of biosecurity to control ASF disease outbreaks and pig business hub models to better link smallholder farmers to pig markets have the potential to address the constraints. However, there is a dearth of evidence of the effects of the interventions on performance and distribution of outcomes along the pig value chain. An ex-ante impact assessment utilising System Dynamics model was used to assess the impact of the interventions in peri-urban pig value chains in Masaka district. The results showed that although implementation of biosecurity interventions results in reduction of ASF outbreaks, it also leads to a 6.3% reduction in farmer profit margins per year but more than 7% increase in other value chain actors’ margins. The pig business hub intervention alone results in positive margins for all value chain actors but minimal reduction in ASF outbreaks. When biosecurity and the pig business hub interventions are implemented together, the interaction effects of the interventions result in positive outcomes for both the control of ASF and improvement in farmers’ margins. Farmers may therefore be unwilling to adopt biosecurity practices if implemented alone to control ASF outbreaks unless there is a corresponding financial incentive to compensate for the high costs. This has implications for policy or developing institutions to facilitate cost sharing arrangement among chain actors and/or third party subsidy to provide incentives for producers to adopt biosecurity measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]