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Background: HIV-1 infections initiated by multiple founder variants are characterised by a higher viral load and a worse clinical prognosis than those initiated with single founder variants, yet little is known about the routes of exposure through which transmission of multiple founder variants is most probable. Here we used individual patient data to calculate the probability of multiple founders stratified by route of HIV exposure and study methodology. Methods: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that estimated founder variant multiplicity in HIV-1 infection, searching MEDLINE, Embase, and Global Health databases for papers published between Jan 1, 1990, and Sept 14, 2020. Eligible studies must have reported original estimates of founder variant multiplicity in people with acute or early HIV-1 infections, have clearly detailed the methods used, and reported the route of exposure. Studies were excluded if they reported data concerning people living with HIV-1 who had known or suspected superinfection, who were documented as having received pre-exposure prophylaxis, or if the transmitting partner was known to be receiving antiretroviral treatment. Individual patient data were collated from all studies, with authors contacted if these data were not publicly available. We applied logistic meta-regression to these data to estimate the probability that an HIV infection is initiated by multiple founder variants. We calculated a pooled estimate using a random effects model, subsequently stratifying this estimate across exposure routes in a univariable analysis. We then extended our model to adjust for different study methods in a multivariable analysis, recalculating estimates across the exposure routes. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020202672. Findings: We included 70 publications in our analysis, comprising 1657 individual patients. Our pooled estimate of the probability that an infection is initiated by multiple founder variants was 0·25 (95% CI 0·21–0·29), with moderate heterogeneity (Q=132·3, p2=64·2%). Our multivariable analysis uncovered differences in the probability of multiple variant infection by exposure route. Relative to a baseline of male-to-female transmission, the predicted probability for female-to-male multiple variant transmission was significantly lower at 0·13 (95% CI 0·08–0·20), and the probabilities were significantly higher for transmissions in people who inject drugs (0·37 [0·24–0·53]) and men who have sex with men (0·30 [0·33–0·40]). There was no significant difference in the probability of multiple variant transmission between male-to-female transmission (0·21 [0·14–0·31]), post-partum transmission (0·18 [0·03–0·57]), pre-partum transmission (0·17 [0·08–0·33]), and intra-partum transmission (0·27 [0·14–0·45]). Interpretation: We identified that transmissions in people who inject drugs and men who have sex with men are significantly more likely to result in an infection initiated by multiple founder variants, and female-to-male infections are significantly less probable. Quantifying how the routes of HIV infection affect the transmission of multiple variants allows us to better understand how the evolution and epidemiology of HIV-1 determine clinical outcomes. Funding: Medical Research Council Precision Medicine Doctoral Training Programme and a European Research Council Starting Grant.

We present 109 near full-length HIV genomes amplified from blood serum samples obtained during early 1986 from across Uganda, which to our knowledge is the earliest and largest population sample from the initial phase of the HIV epidemic in Africa. Consensus sequences were made from paired-end Illumina reads with a target-capture approach to amplify HIV material following poor success with standard approaches. In comparisons with a smaller ‘intermediate’ genome dataset from 1998 to 1999 and a ‘modern’ genome dataset from 2007 to 2016, the proportion of subtype D was significantly higher initially, dropping from 67% (73/109), to 57% (26/46) to 17% (82/465) respectively (p env sequences were predicted to be X4 tropic compared with none of the 24 subtype A1. We also analysed the frequency of subtype in the envelope region of inter-subtype recombinants, and found that subtype A1 is over-represented in env, suggesting recombination and selection have acted to remove subtype D env from circulation. The reduction of subtype D frequency over three decades therefore appears to be a result of selective pressure against X4 tropism and its higher virulence. Lastly, we find a subtype D specific codon deletion at position 24 of the V3 loop, which may explain the higher propensity for subtype D to utilise X4 tropism.

The Sustainable East Africa Research in Community Health (SEARCH) trial was a universal test-and-treat (UTT) trial in rural Uganda and Kenya, aiming to lower regional HIV-1 incidence. Here, we quantify breakthrough HIV-1 transmissions occurring during the trial from population-based, dried blood spot samples. Between 2013 and 2017, we obtained 549 gag and 488 pol HIV-1 consensus sequences from 745 participants: 469 participants infected prior to trial commencement and 276 SEARCH-incident infections. Putative transmission clusters, with a 1.5% pairwise genetic distance threshold, were inferred from maximum likelihood phylogenies; clusters arising after the start of SEARCH were identified with Bayesian time-calibrated phylogenies. Our phylodynamic approach identified nine clusters arising after the SEARCH start date: eight pairs and one triplet, representing mostly opposite-gender linked (6/9), within-community transmissions (7/9). Two clusters contained individuals with non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) resistance, both linked to intervention communities. The identification of SEARCH-incident, within-community transmissions reveals the role of unsuppressed individuals in sustaining the epidemic in both arms of a UTT trial setting. The presence of transmitted NNRTI resistance, implying treatment failure to the efavirenz-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) used during SEARCH, highlights the need to improve delivery and adherence to up-to-date ART recommendations, to halt HIV-1 transmission.

Objectives The aim of this study was to investigate associations between baseline characteristics and CD4 cell count response on first-line antiretroviral therapy and risk of virological failure (VF) with or without drug resistance. Methods We conducted an analysis of UK Collaborative HIV Cohort data linked to the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database. Inclusion criteria were viral sequence showing no resistance prior to initiation of first-line efavirenz + tenofovir disoproxil fumarate + emtricitabine and virological suppression within 6 months. Outcomes of VF (≥200 copies/mL) with or without drug resistance were assessed using a competing risks approach fitted jointly with a model for CD4 cell count recovery. Hazard ratios for each VF outcome were estimated for baseline CD4 cell count and viral load and characteristics of CD4 cell count response using latent variables on a standard normal scale. Results A total of 3640 people were included with 338 VF events; corresponding viral sequences were available in 134 with ≥1 resistance mutation in 36. VF with resistance was associated with lower baseline CD4 (0.30, 0.09–0.62), lower CD4 recovery (0.04, 0.00–0.17) and higher CD4 variability (4.40, 1.22–12.68). A different pattern of associations was observed for VF without resistance, but the strength of these results was less consistent across sensitivity analyses. Cumulative incidence of VF with resistance was estimated to be >2% at 3 years for baseline CD4 ≥350 cells/μL. Conclusion Lower baseline CD4 cell count and suboptimal CD4 recovery are associated with VF with drug resistance. People with low CD4 cell count before ART or with suboptimal CD4 recovery on treatment should be a priority for regimens with high genetic barrier to resistance.

The General Population Cohort (GPC) in south-western Uganda has a low HIV-1 incidence rate (&lt, 1%). However, new infections continue to emerge. In this research, 3796 HIV-1 pol sequences (GPC: n = 1418, non-GPC sites: n = 1223, Central Uganda: n = 1010 and Eastern Uganda: n = 145) generated between 2003&ndash, 2015 were analysed using phylogenetic methods with demographic data to understand HIV-1 transmission in this cohort and inform the epidemic response. HIV-1 subtype A1 was the most prevalent strain in the GPC area (GPC and non-GPC sites) (39.8%), central (45.9%) and eastern (52.4%) Uganda. However, in the GPC alone, subtype D was the predominant subtype (39.1%). Of the 524 transmission clusters identified by Cluster Picker, all large clusters (&ge, 5 individuals, n = 8) involved individuals from the GPC. In a multivariate analysis, clustering was strongly associated with being female (adjusted Odds Ratio, aOR = 1.28, 95% CI, 1.06&ndash, 1.54), being &gt, 25 years (aOR = 1.52, 95% CI, 1.16&ndash, 2.0) and being a resident in the GPC (aOR = 6.90, 95% CI, 5.22&ndash, 9.21). Phylogeographic analysis showed significant viral dissemination (Bayes Factor test, BF &gt, 3) from the GPC without significant viral introductions (BF &lt, 3) into the GPC. The findings suggest localized HIV-1 transmission in the GPC. Intensifying geographically focused combination interventions in the GPC would contribute towards controlling HIV-1 infections.

Recombination is an important feature of HIV evolution, occurring both within and between the major branches of diversity (subtypes). The Ugandan epidemic is primarily composed of two subtypes, A1 and D, that have been co-circulating for 50 years, frequently recombining in dually infected patients. Here, we investigate the frequency of recombinants in this population and the location of breakpoints along the genome. As part of the PANGEA-HIV consortium, 1,472 consensus genome sequences over 5 kb have been obtained from 1,857 samples collected by the MRC/UVRI & LSHTM Research unit in Uganda, 465 (31.6 per cent) of which were near full-length sequences (>8 kb). Using the subtyping tool SCUEAL, we find that of the near full-length dataset, 233 (50.1 per cent) genomes contained only one subtype, 30.8 per cent A1 (n = 143), 17.6 per cent D (n = 82), and 1.7 per cent C (n = 8), while 49.9 per cent (n = 232) contained more than one subtype (including A1/D (n = 164), A1/C (n = 13), C/D (n = 9); A1/C/D (n = 13), and 33 complex types). K-means clustering of the recombinant A1/D genomes revealed a section of envelope (C2gp120-TMgp41) is often inherited intact, whilst a generalized linear model was used to demonstrate significantly fewer breakpoints in the gag–pol and envelope C2-TM regions compared with accessory gene regions. Despite similar recombination patterns in many recombinants, no clearly supported circulating recombinant form (CRF) was found, there was limited evidence of the transmission of breakpoints, and the vast majority (153/164; 93 per cent) of the A1/D recombinants appear to be unique recombinant forms. Thus, recombination is pervasive with clear biases in breakpoint location, but CRFs are not a significant feature, characteristic of a complex, and diverse epidemic. 1. Introduction 2. Methods 2.1 Sample collection 2.2 Sequencing and alignment 2.3 Subtyping 2.4 Identification of transmitted breakpoints 2.5 Recombination pattern classification 2.6 Breakpoint and genome location model framework 3. Results 3.1 Subtype distribution 3.2 Identification of CRFs and transmitted breakpoints 3.3 Recombinant groupings 3.4 Breakpoint distribution 4. Discussion

Objectives The aim of this study was to investigate associations between baseline characteristics and CD4 cell count response on first-line antiretroviral therapy and risk of virological failure (VF) with or without drug resistance. Methods We conducted an analysis of UK Collaborative HIV Cohort data linked to the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database. Inclusion criteria were viral sequence showing no resistance prior to initiation of first-line efavirenz + tenofovir disoproxil fumarate + emtricitabine and virological suppression within 6 months. Outcomes of VF (≥200 copies/mL) with or without drug resistance were assessed using a competing risks approach fitted jointly with a model for CD4 cell count recovery. Hazard ratios for each VF outcome were estimated for baseline CD4 cell count and viral load and characteristics of CD4 cell count response using latent variables on a standard normal scale. Results A total of 3640 people were included with 338 VF events; corresponding viral sequences were available in 134 with ≥1 resistance mutation in 36. VF with resistance was associated with lower baseline CD4 (0.30, 0.09–0.62), lower CD4 recovery (0.04, 0.00–0.17) and higher CD4 variability (4.40, 1.22–12.68). A different pattern of associations was observed for VF without resistance, but the strength of these results was less consistent across sensitivity analyses. Cumulative incidence of VF with resistance was estimated to be

BACKGROUND The extent of transmission of influenza in hospital settings is poorly understood. Next generation sequencing may improve this by providing information on the genetic relatedness of viral strains. OBJECTIVES We aimed to apply next generation sequencing to describe transmission in hospital and compare with methods based on routinely‐collected data. METHODS All influenza samples taken through routine care from patients at University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (September 2012 to March 2014) were included. We conducted Illumina sequencing and identified genetic clusters. We compared nosocomial transmission estimates defined using classical methods (based on time from admission to sample) and genetic clustering. We identified pairs of cases with space‐time links and assessed genetic relatedness. RESULTS We sequenced influenza sampled from 214 patients. There were 180 unique genetic strains, 16 (8.8%) of which seeded a new transmission chain. Nosocomial transmission was indicated for 32 (15.0%) cases using the classical definition and 34 (15.8%) based on genetic clustering. Of the 50 patients in a genetic cluster, 11 (22.0%) had known space‐time links with other cases in the same cluster. Genetic distances between pairs of cases with space‐time links were lower than for pairs without spatial links (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS Genetic data confirmed that nosocomial transmission contributes significantly to the hospital burden of influenza and elucidated transmission chains. Prospective next generation sequencing could support outbreak investigations and monitor the impact of infection and control measures.

The impact of topical applications of deltamethrin and ivermectin to cattle on Culicoides spp. landing and blood-feeding was studied in this work using sticky traps mounted on Friesian heifers&rsquo, backs. There was no effect of the insecticides on total numbers of Culicoides trapped or the proportion engorged. Deltamethrin and ivermectin treatment did not prevent blood-feeding on these animals. Deltamethrin did result in significant Culicoides mortality as evidenced by the numbers of dead midges combed from heifers&rsquo, upper flanks. The proximity of engorged midges on traps to dead midges in the hair suggests that blood-feeding took place despite midges receiving an ultimately lethal dose of deltamethrin. Ivermectin application resulted in a smaller proportion of nulliparous than parous females caught. There was no significant effect of ivermectin on the numbers of Culicoides that emerged from dung samples (but p was small at 0.095 for the Obsoletus group Culicoides). In cases of suspect animal imports, pour-on or spray applications of deltamethrin could reduce the risk of onward transmission of bluetongue virus.

OBJECTIVES Transmission of drug-resistant HIV-1 has decreased in the UK since the early 2000s. This analysis reports recent trends and characteristics of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) in the UK from 2010 to 2013. METHODS Resistance tests conducted in antiretroviral treatment (ART)-naive individuals between 2010 and 2013 were analysed for the presence of transmitted drug resistance mutations (TDRMs), defined as any mutations from a modified 2009 World Health Organization surveillance list, or a modified 2013 International Antiviral Society-USA list for integrase tests. Logistic regression was used to examine associations between demographics and the prevalence of TDRMs. RESULTS TDRMs were observed in 1223 (7.5%) of 16 425 individuals; prevalence declined from 8.1% in 2010 to 6.6% in 2013 (P = 0.02). The prevalence of TDRMs was higher among men who have sex with men (MSM) compared with heterosexual men and women (8.7% versus 6.4%, respectively) with a trend for decreasing TDRMs among MSM (P = 0.008) driven by a reduction in nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI)-related mutations. The most frequently detected TDRMs were K103N (2.2%), T215 revertants (1.6%), M41L (0.9%) and L90M (0.7%). Predicted phenotypic resistance to first-line ART was highest to the nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) rilpivirine and efavirenz (6.2% and 3.4%, respectively) but minimal to NRTIs, including tenofovir, and protease inhibitors (PIs). No major integrase TDRMs were detected among 101 individuals tested while ART-naive. CONCLUSIONS We observed a decrease in TDRMs in recent years. However, this was confined to the MSM population and rates remained stable in those with heterosexually acquired HIV infection. Resistance to currently recommended first-line ART, including integrase inhibitors, remained reassuringly low.

Background: Memory CD4+ T cells (mCD4s) containing integrated HIV DNA are considered the main barrier to a cure for HIV infection. Here we analysed HIV DNA reservoirs in antigen-specific subsets of mCD4s to delineate the mechanisms by which HIV reservoirs persist during ART.Methods/Results: HIV Gag, Cytomegalovirus (CMV) and Tetanus Toxoid (TT) specific mCD4s were isolated from peripheral blood samples obtained from 11 individual subjects, 2-11 years after commencing ART. Antigen-specific mCD4s were identified by the sensitive OX40 assay and purified by cell sorting. Total HIV DNA levels were quantified by real-time PCR, and clonal viral sequences generated from mCD4 subsets and pre-ART plasma samples. Quantitative results and sequence analysis were restricted to 5 and 3 study participants respectively, likely due to the low frequency of the antigen-specific mCD4s and relatively low HIV DNA proviral loads. Median HIV Gag-, CMV-, and TT-specific mCD4s were 0.61%, 2.46% and 0.78% of total mCD4s, and contained a median of 2.50, 2.38, and 2.55 log10 copies of HIV DNA per 106 cells respectively. HIV DNA sequences derived from antigen-specific mCD4s clustered with sequences derived from pre-ART plasma samples. There was a trend towards increased viral diversity in clonal viral sequences derived from CMV-specific relative to TT-specific mCD4s.Discussion/Conclusions: Despite limitations, this study provides direct evidence that HIV reservoirs persist in memory CD4+ T cell subsets maintained by homeostatic proliferation (TT) and adds to growing evidence against viral evolution during ART. Similar future studies require techniques that sample diverse HIV reservoirs and with improved sensitivity.

Background. The United Kingdom human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic was historically dominated by HIV subtype B transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM). Now 50% of diagnoses and prevalent infections are among heterosexual individuals and mainly involve non-B subtypes. Between 2002 and 2010, the prevalence of non-B diagnoses among MSM increased from 5.4% to 17%, and this study focused on the drivers of this change. Methods. Growth between 2007 and 2009 in transmission clusters among 14 000 subtype A1, C, D, and G sequences from the United Kingdom HIV Drug Resistance Database was analysed by risk group. Results. Of 1148 clusters containing at least 2 sequences in 2007, >75% were pairs and >90% were heterosexual. Most clusters (71.4%) did not grow during the study period. Growth was significantly lower for small clusters and higher for clusters of ≥7 sequences, with the highest growth observed for clusters comprising sequences from MSM and people who inject drugs (PWID). Risk group (P < .0001), cluster size (P < .0001), and subtype (P < .01) were predictive of growth in a generalized linear model. Discussion. Despite the increase in non-B subtypes associated with heterosexual transmission, MSM and PWID are at risk for non-B infections. Crossover of subtype C from heterosexuals to MSM has led to the expansion of this subtype within the United Kingdom.

Objectives No randomized controlled trials have yet reported an individual patient benefit of initiating combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) at CD4 counts > 350 cells/μL. It is hypothesized that earlier initiation of cART in asymptomatic and otherwise healthy individuals may lead to poorer adherence and subsequently higher rates of resistance development. Methods In a large cohort of HIV-positive individuals, we investigated the emergence of new resistance mutations upon virological treatment failure according to the CD4 count at the initiation of cART. Results Of 7918 included individuals, 6514 (82.3%), 996 (12.6%) and 408 (5.2%) started cART with a CD4 count ≤ 350, 351–499 and ≥ 500 cells/μL, respectively. Virological rebound occurred while on cART in 488 (7.5%), 46 (4.6%) and 30 (7.4%) with a baseline CD4 count ≤ 350, 351–499 and ≥ 500 cells/μL, respectively. Only four (13.0%) individuals with a baseline CD4 count > 350 cells/μL in receipt of a resistance test at viral load rebound were found to have developed new resistance mutations. This compared to 107 (41.2%) of those with virological failure who had initiated cART with a CD4 count

Patients who do not disclose their sexuality, including men who do not disclose same-sex behaviour, are difficult to characterise through traditional epidemiological approaches such as interviews. Using a recently developed method to detect large networks of viral sequences from time-resolved trees, we localised non-disclosed men who have sex with men (MSM) in UK transmission networks, gaining crucial insight into the behaviour of this group.For this phylogenetic analysis, we obtained HIV pol sequences from the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database (UKRDB), a central repository for resistance tests done as part of routine clinical care throughout the UK. Sequence data are linked to demographic and clinical data held by the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort study and the national HIV/AIDS reporting system database. Initially, we reconstructed maximum likelihood phylogenies from these sequences, then sequences were selected for time-resolved analysis in BEAST if they were clustered with at least one other sequence at a genetic distance of 4·5% or less with support of at least 90%. We used time-resolved phylogenies to create networks by linking together nodes if sequences shared a common ancestor within the previous 5 years. We identified potential non-disclosed MSM (pnMSM), defined as self-reported heterosexual men who clustered only with men. We measured the network position of pnMSM, including betweenness (a measure of connectedness and importance) and assortativity (the propensity for nodes sharing attributes to link).14 405 individuals were in the network, including 8452 MSM, 1743 heterosexual women and 1341 heterosexual men. 249 pnMSM were identified (18·6% of all clustered heterosexual men) in the network. pnMSM were more likely to be black African (p0·0001), less likely to be infected with subtype B (p=0·006), and were slightly older (p=0·002) than the MSM they clustered with. Mean betweenness centrality was lower for pnMSM than for MSM (1·31, 95% CI 0·48-2·15 in pnMSM vs 2·24, 0·98-3·51 in MSM; p=0·002), indicating that pnMSM were in peripheral positions in MSM clusters. Assortativity by risk group was higher than expected (0·037 vs -0·037, p=0·01) signifying that pnMSM were linked to each other. We found that self-reported heterosexual men were more likely to link MSM and heterosexual women than heterosexual women were to link MSM and heterosexual men (Fisher's exact test p=0·0004; OR 2·24) but the number of such transmission chains was small (only 54 in total vs 32 in women).pnMSM are a subgroup distinct from both MSM and from heterosexual men. They are more likely to choose sexual partners who are also pnMSM and might exhibit lower-risk sexual behaviour than MSM (eg, choosing low-risk partners or consistently using condoms). Heterosexual men are the group most likely to be diagnosed with late-stage disease (ie, low CD4 counts) and non-disclosed MSM might put female partners at higher risk than heterosexual men because non-disclosed MSM have male partners. Hence, pnMSM require specific consideration to ensure they are included in public health interventions.National Institutes of Health.

To characterize HIV-1 transmission dynamics in regions where the burden of HIV-1 is greatest, the “Phylogenetics and Networks for Generalised HIV Epidemics in Africa” consortium (PANGEA-HIV) is sequencing full-genome viral isolates from across sub-Saharan Africa. We report the first 3,985 PANGEA-HIV consensus sequences from four cohort sites (Rakai Community Cohort Study, n = 2,833; MRC/UVRI Uganda, n = 701; Mochudi Prevention Project, n = 359; Africa Health Research Institute Resistance Cohort, n = 92). Next-generation sequencing success rates varied: more than 80% of the viral genome from the gag to the nef genes could be determined for all sequences from South Africa, 75% of sequences from Mochudi, 60% of sequences from MRC/UVRI Uganda, and 22% of sequences from Rakai. Partial sequencing failure was primarily associated with low viral load, increased for amplicons closer to the 3′ end of the genome, was not associated with subtype diversity except HIV-1 subtype D, and remained significantly associated with sampling location after controlling for other factors. We assessed the impact of the missing data patterns in PANGEA-HIV sequences on phylogeny reconstruction in simulations. We found a threshold in terms of taxon sampling below which the patchy distribution of missing characters in next-generation sequences (NGS) has an excess negative impact on the accuracy of HIV-1 phylogeny reconstruction, which is attributable to tree reconstruction artifacts that accumulate when branches in viral trees are long. The large number of PANGEA-HIV sequences provides unprecedented opportunities for evaluating HIV-1 transmission dynamics across sub-Saharan Africa and identifying prevention opportunities. Molecular epidemiological analyses of these data must proceed cautiously because sequence sampling remains below the identified threshold and a considerable negative impact of missing characters on phylogeny reconstruction is expected.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) is pandemic, but its contemporary global transmission network has not been characterized. A better understanding of the properties and dynamics of this network is essential for surveillance, prevention, and eventual eradication of HIV. Here, we apply a simple and computationally efficient network-based approach to all publicly available HIV polymerase sequences in the global database, revealing a contemporary picture of the spread of HIV-1 within and between countries. This approach automatically recovered well-characterized transmission clusters and extended other clusters thought to be contained within a single country across international borders. In addition, previously undescribed transmission clusters were discovered. Together, these clusters represent all known modes of HIV transmission. The extent of international linkage revealed by our comprehensive approach demonstrates the need to consider the global diversity of HIV, even when describing local epidemics. Finally, the speed of this method allows for near-real-time surveillance of the pandemic's progression.

West Central Africa has been implicated as the epicenter of the HIV-1 epidemic, and almost all group M subtypes can be found there. Previous analysis of early HIV-1 group M sequences from Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo, formerly Zaire, revealed that isolates from a number of individuals fall in different positions in phylogenetic trees constructed from sequences from opposite ends of the genome as a result of recombination between viruses of different subtypes. Here, we use discrete ancestral trait mapping to develop a procedure for quantifying HIV-1 group M intersubtype recombination across phylogenies, using individuals' gag (p17) and env (gp41) subtypes. The method was applied to previously described HIV-1 group M sequences from samples obtained in Kinshasa early in the global radiation of HIV. Nine different p17 and gp41 intersubtype recombinant combinations were present in the data set. The mean number of excess ancestral subtype transitions (NEST) required to map individuals' p17 subtypes onto the gp14 phylogeny samples, compared to the number required to map them onto the p17 phylogenies, and vice versa, indicated that excess subtype transitions occurred at a rate of approximately 7 × 10 −3 to 8 × 10 −3 per lineage per year as a result of intersubtype recombination. Our results imply that intersubtype recombination may have occurred in approximately 20% of lineages evolving over a period of 30 years and confirm intersubtype recombination as a substantial force in generating HIV-1 group M diversity.

Affordable next generation sequencing (NGS) technologies for hepatitis C virus (HCV) may potentially identify both viral genotype and resistance genetic motifs in the era of directly acting anti-viral (DAA) therapies. This study compared the ability of high-throughput NGS methods to generate full-length, deep, HCV viral sequence datasets and evaluated their utility for diagnostics and clinical assessment.NGS methods using (1) unselected HCV RNA (metagenomic); (2) pre-enrichment of HCV RNA by probe capture and (3) HCV pre-amplification by PCR implemented in four UK centres were compared. Metrics of sequence coverage and depth, quasispecies diversity and detection of DAA-resistance associated variants (RAVs), mixed HCV genotype and other co-infections were compared using a panel of samples of varying viral load, genotype and mixed HCV geno(sub)types. Each NGS method generated near complete genome sequences from over 90% of samples. Enrichment methods and PCR pre-amplification generated greater sequence depth and were more effective for low viral load samples. All NGS methodologies accurately identified mixed HCV genotype infections. Consensus sequences generated by different NGS methods were generally concordant and majority RAVs were consistently detected. However, methods differed in their ability to detect minor populations of RAVs. Metagenomic methods identified human pegivirus co-infections. NGS provided a rapid, inexpensive method for generating whole HCV genomes to define infecting genotypes, RAVs, comprehensive viral strain analysis and quasispecies diversity. Enrichment methods are particularly suited for high-throughput analysis while providing genotype and information on potential DAA resistance.

Swine have often been considered as a mixing vessel for different influenza strains. In order to assess their role in more detail, we undertook a retrospective sequencing study to detect and characterize the reassortants present in European swine and to estimate the rate of reassortment between H1N1, H1N2 and H3N2 subtypes with Eurasian (avian-like) internal protein-coding segments. We analysed 69 newly obtained whole genome sequences of subtypes H1N1–H3N2 from swine influenza viruses sampled between 1982 and 2008, using Illumina and 454 platforms. Analyses of these genomes, together with previously published genomes, revealed a large monophyletic clade of Eurasian swine-lineage polymerase segments containing H1N1, H1N2 and H3N2 subtypes. We subsequently examined reassortments between the haemagglutinin and neuraminidase segments and estimated the reassortment rates between lineages using a recently developed evolutionary analysis method. High rates of reassortment between H1N2 and H1N1 Eurasian swine lineages were detected in European strains, with an average of one reassortment every 2–3 years. This rapid reassortment results from co-circulating lineages in swine, and in consequence we should expect further reassortments between currently circulating swine strains and the recent swine-origin H1N1v pandemic strain.

The spread of influenza has usually been described by a ‘density’ model, where the largest centres of population drive the epidemic within a country. An alternative model emphasizing the role of air travel has recently been developed. We have examined the relative importance of the two in the context of the 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic in Scotland. We obtained genome sequences of 70 strains representative of the geographical and temporal distribution of H1N1 influenza during the summer and winter phases of the pandemic in 2009. We analysed these strains, together with another 128 from the rest of the UK and 292 globally distributed strains, using maximum-likelihood phylogenetic and Bayesian phylogeographical methods. This revealed strikingly different epidemic patterns within Scotland in the early and late parts of 2009. The summer epidemic in Scotland was characterized by multiple independent introductions from both international and other UK sources, followed by major local expansion of a single clade that probably originated in Birmingham. The winter phase, in contrast, was more diverse genetically, with several clades of similar size in different locations, some of which had no particularly close phylogenetic affinity to strains sampled from either Scotland or England. Overall there was evidence to support both models, with significant links demonstrated between North American sequences and those from England, and between England and East Asia, indicating that major air-travel routes played an important role in the pattern of spread of the pandemic, both within the UK and globally.

We present a formalism for unifying the inference of population size from genetic sequences and mathematical models of infectious disease in populations. Virus phylogenies have been used in many recent studies to infer properties of epidemics. These approaches rely on coalescent models that may not be appropriate for infectious diseases. We account for phylogenetic patterns of viruses in susceptible–infected (SI), susceptible–infected–susceptible (SIS), and susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) models of infectious disease, and our approach may be a viable alternative to demographic models used to reconstruct epidemic dynamics. The method allows epidemiological parameters, such as the reproductive number, to be estimated directly from viral sequence data. We also describe patterns of phylogenetic clustering that are often construed as arising from a short chain of transmissions. Our model reproduces the moments of the distribution of phylogenetic cluster sizes and may therefore serve as a null hypothesis for cluster sizes under simple epidemiological models. We examine a small cross-sectional sample of human immunodeficiency (HIV)-1 sequences collected in the United States and compare our results to standard estimates of effective population size. Estimated prevalence is consistent with estimates of effective population size and the known history of the HIV epidemic. While our model accurately estimates prevalence during exponential growth, we find that periods of decline are harder to identify.

HIV prevalence has decreased in Uganda since the 1990s, but remains substantial within high-risk groups. Here, we reconstruct the history and spread of HIV subtypes A1 and D in Uganda and explore the transmission dynamics in high-risk populations. We analysed HIV pol sequences from female sex workers in Kampala (n = 42), Lake Victoria fisher-folk (n = 46) and a rural clinical cohort (n = 74), together with publicly available sequences from adjacent regions in Uganda (n = 412) and newly generated sequences from samples taken in Kampala in 1986 (n = 12). Of the sequences from the three Ugandan populations, 60 (37.1 %) were classified as subtype D, 54 (33.3 %) as subtype A1, 31 (19.1 %) as A1/D recombinants, six (3.7 %) as subtype C, one (0.6 %) as subtype G and 10 (6.2 %) as other recombinants. Among the A1/D recombinants we identified a new candidate circulating recombinant form. Phylodynamic and phylogeographic analyses using BEAST indicated that the Ugandan epidemics originated in 1960 (1950-1968) for subtype A1 and 1973 (1970-1977) for D, in rural south-western Uganda with subsequent spread to Kampala. They also showed extensive interconnection with adjacent countries. The sequence analysis shows both epidemics grew exponentially during the 1970s-1980s and decreased from 1992, which agrees with HIV prevalence reports in Uganda. Inclusion of sequences from the 1980s indicated the origin of both epidemics was more recent than expected and substantially narrowed the confidence intervals in comparison to previous estimates. We identified three transmission clusters and ten pairs, none of them including patients from different populations, suggesting active transmission within a structured transmission network.

Increased susceptibility to the protease inhibitors saquinavir and amprenavir has been observed in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) with specific mutations in protease (V82T and N88S). Increased susceptibility to ritonavir has also been described in some viruses from antiretroviral agent-naïve patients with primary HIV-1 infection in association with combinations of amino acid changes at polymorphic sites in the protease. Many of the viruses displaying increased susceptibility to protease inhibitors also had low replication capacity. In this retrospective study, we analyze the drug susceptibility phenotype and the replication capacity of virus isolates obtained at the peaks of viremia during five consecutive structured treatment interruptions in 12 chronically HIV-1-infected patients. Ten out of 12 patients had at least one sample with protease inhibitor hypersusceptibility (change ≤0.4-fold) to one or more protease inhibitor. Hypersusceptibility to different protease inhibitors was observed at variable frequency, ranging from 38% to amprenavir to 11% to nelfinavir. Pairwise comparisons between susceptibilities for the protease inhibitors showed a consistent correlation among all pairs. There was also a significant relationship between susceptibility to protease inhibitors and replication capacity in all patients. Replication capacity remained stable over the course of repetitive cycles of structured treatment interruptions. We could find no association between in vitro replication capacity and in vivo plasma viral load doubling time and CD4 + and CD8 + T-cell counts at each treatment interruption. Several mutations were associated with hypersusceptibility to each protease inhibitor in a univariate analysis. This study extends the association between hypersusceptibility to protease inhibitors and low replication capacity to virus isolated from chronically infected patients and highlights the complexity of determining the genetic basis of this phenomenon. The potential clinical relevance of protease inhibitor hypersusceptibility and low replication capacity to virologic response to protease inhibitor-based therapies deserves to be investigated further.

The initial virus strains from as many as 12% of individuals with primary human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection have a 50% inhibitory concentration ≤0.4-fold that of HIV type 1NL4-3(HIV-1NL4-3) to ritonavir (hypersusceptibility [HS]). There is also substantial variation in replicative capacity (RC) or an in vitro assay of the contributions of protease (PR) and reverse transcriptase to viral fitness. In chronically infected antiretrovirally treated patients, amprenavir HS has been associated with the mutation N88S in PR, but this mutation is not seen in untreated patients. In this study, virus strains from 182 cases of primary HIV infection were analyzed, and a highly significant association between HS and low RC (≤10% that of HIV-1NL4-3) was observed (P< 10−6). Multivariate analysis was used to determine the genotypic basis of ritonavir HS, analyzing all polymorphic amino acid sites and insertions from p7gag through PR. Decision tree models developed on the entire Gag-plus-PR data set and on PR alone gave overall correct classifications of 73 and 72%, respectively, on cross-validation. They were also able to predict low RC, with sensitivities of 69 and 62% and specificities of 84 and 70%, respectively. The analysis shows that ritonavir HS in untreated primary HIV infection is not associated with single mutations but with combinations of amino acids at polymorphic sites and that the same genotypes which confer HS to PR inhibitors confer low RC. This supports the view that variation in PR function is directly responsible for variation in fitness among strains in primary infection.

Although the prevalence of drug-resistant strains in primary human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in North America has recently increased, their transmission fitness remains unknown. The present study estimated the frequency of transmission of drug-resistant HIV from patients receiving antiretroviral therapy using retrospective surveys of clinic data. It revealed that resistant virus was transmitted only approximately 20% as frequently as expected from these patients. Individuals with primary resistance may become a significant source of resistant strains.

Objective: HIV-1 subtype B infections are associated with MSM in the UK. Yet, around 13% of subtype B infections are found in those reporting heterosexual contact as transmission route. Using phylogenetics, we explored possible misclassification of sexual exposure among men diagnosed with HIV in the UK. Design: Viral gene sequences linked to patient-derived information were used to identify phylogenetic transmission chains. Methods: A total of 22 481 HIV-1 subtype B pol gene sequences sampled between 1996 and 2008 were analysed. Dated phylogenies were reconstructed and transmission clusters identified as clades of at least two sequences with a maximum genetic distance of 4.5%, a branch support of at least 95% and spanning 5 years. The characteristics of clusters containing at least one heterosexually acquired infection were analysed. Results: Twenty-nine percent of the linked heterosexuals clustered exclusively with MSM. These were more likely to be men than women. Estimated misclassification of homosexually acquired infections ranged between 1 and 11% of the reported male heterosexuals diagnosed with HIV. Black African heterosexual men were more often phylogenetically linked to MSM than other ethnic group, with an estimated misclassification range between 1 and 21%. Conclusion: Overall, a small proportion of self-reported heterosexual men diagnosed with HIV could have been infected homosexually. However, up to one in five black African heterosexual men chose not to disclose sex with men at HIV diagnosis and preferred to be identified as heterosexual. Phylogenetic analyses can enhance surveillance-based risk information and inform national programmes for monitoring and preventing HIV infections.

Transmission clusters of HIV-1 subtype B uniquely associated with the epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in East Asia have recently been identified. Using the Los Alamos HIV sequence database and the UK HIV drug resistance database, we explored possible links between HIV MSM epidemics in East Asia and the rest of the world by using phylogenetic and molecular clock analyses. We found that JP.MSM.B-1, a subtype B MSM variant that accounts for approximately one-third of the infections among Japanese MSM, was detected worldwide, in the United Kingdom ( n = 13), mainland China ( n = 3), the United States, Germany, Canada, and Taiwan ( n = 1 each). Interestingly, 10 United Kingdom samples plus two from Germany and the United States formed a distinct monophyletic subgroup within JP.MSM.B-1. The estimated divergence times of JP.MSM.B-1 and the latter subgroup were ∼1989 and ∼1999, respectively. These dates suggest that JP.MSM.B-1 was circulating for many years in Japan among MSM before disseminating to other countries, most likely through global MSM networks. A significant number of other Asian MSM HIV lineages were also detected in the UK HIV drug resistance database. Our study provides insight into the regional and global dispersal of Asian MSM HIV lineages. Further study of these strains is warranted to elucidate viral migration and the interrelationship of HIV epidemics on a global scale. IMPORTANCE We previously identified several transmission clusters of HIV-1 subtype B uniquely associated with the epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in East Asia. Using the Los Alamos HIV sequence database and the UK HIV drug resistance database, we explored the possible interplay of HIV MSM epidemics in the different geographic regions and found previously unrecognized interrelationships among the HIV-1 epidemics in East Asia, the United Kingdom, and the rest of the world. Our study provides insight into the regional and global dispersal of Asian MSM HIV lineages and highlights the importance of strengthening HIV monitoring efforts and the need for implementing effective control measures to reduce HIV transmission on a global scale.

Disease progression in HIV-infected individuals varies greatly, and while the environmental and host factors influencing this variation have been widely investigated, the viral contribution to variation in set-point viral load, a predictor of disease progression, is less clear. Previous studies, using transmission-pairs and analysis of phylogenetic signal in small numbers of individuals, have produced a wide range of viral genetic effect estimates. Here we present a novel application of a population-scale method based in quantitative genetics to estimate the viral genetic effect on set-point viral load in the UK subtype B HIV-1 epidemic, based on a very large data set. Analyzing the initial viral load and associated pol sequence, both taken before anti-retroviral therapy, of 8,483 patients, we estimate the proportion of variance in viral load explained by viral genetic effects to be 5.7% (CI 2.8–8.6%). We also estimated the change in viral load over time due to selection on the virus and environmental effects to be a decline of 0.05 log10 copies/mL/year, in contrast to recent studies which suggested a reported small increase in viral load over the last 20 years might be due to evolutionary changes in the virus. Our results suggest that in the UK epidemic, subtype B has a small but significant viral genetic effect on viral load. By allowing the analysis of large sample sizes, we expect our approach to be applicable to the estimation of the genetic contribution to traits in many organisms., Author Summary HIV viral load, the amount of virus in the blood, is an important predictor of rate of CD4+ cell decline, time to AIDS and onwards transmission. Plasma viral load is influenced by many environmental and host factors, but the contribution of the viral genome is not yet clear. We have adapted a method from quantitative genetics which considers the viral phylogeny as a pedigree, permitting analysis of large cohort-derived datasets for the first time. We found the viral genome contributes significantly to the level of the set point viral load, but only determines about 6% of the variation in this property in this population. Our study also suggests that the change over time in mean plasma viral load described in some recent studies has not been due to a change in the component of viral load that is contributed by viral genotype.

In recent years, genotype I (GI) of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) has displaced genotype III (GIII) as the dominant virus genotype throughout Asia. In this study, the largest collection of GIII and GI envelope gene-derived viral sequences assembled to date was used to reconstruct the spatiotemporal chronology of genotype displacement throughout Asia and to determine the evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics underlying this significant event. GI consists of two clades, GI-a and GI-b, with the latter being associated with displacement of GIII as the dominant JEV genotype throughout Asia in the 1990s. Phylogeographic analysis indicated that GI-a diverged in Thailand or Cambodia and has remained confined to tropical Asia, whereas GI-b diverged in Vietnam and then dispersed northwards to China, where it was subsequently dispersed to Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. Molecular adaptation was detected by more than one method at one site (residue 15), and coevolution was detected at two pairs of sites (residues 89 to 360 and 129 to 141) within the GI E gene protein alignment. Viral multiplication and temperature sensitivity analyses in avian and mosquito cells revealed that the GI-b isolate JE-91 had significantly higher infectivity titers in mosquito cells from 24 to 48 h postinfection than did the GI-a and GIII isolates. If the JE-91 isolate is indeed representative of GI-b, an increased multiplicative ability of GI-b viruses compared to that of GIII viruses early in mosquito infection may have resulted in a shortened extrinsic incubation period that led to an increased number of GI enzootic transmission cycles and the subsequent displacement of GIII. IMPORTANCE Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), a mosquito-borne flavivirus, represents the most significant etiology of childhood viral neurological infection in Asia. Despite the existence of effective vaccines, JEV is responsible for an estimated 68,000 human cases and a reported 10,000 to 15,000 deaths annually. Phylogenetic studies divided JEV into five geographically and epidemiologically distinct genotypes (GI to GV). GIII has been the source of numerous JEV epidemics throughout history and was the most frequently isolated genotype throughout most of Asia from 1935 until the 1990s. In recent years, GI has displaced GIII as the most frequently isolated virus genotype. To date, the mechanism of this genotype replacement has remained unknown. In this study, we have identified genetic determinants underlying the genotype displacement as it unfolded across Asia. JEV provides a paradigm for other flaviviruses, including West Nile, yellow fever, and dengue viruses, and the critical role of the selective advantages in the mosquito vector.

Highly pathogenic (HP) avian influenza virus (AIV) H7N3 outbreaks occurred 3 times in the Americas in the past 10 years and caused severe economic loss in the affected regions. In June/July 2012, new HP H7N3 outbreaks occurred at commercial farms in Jalisco, Mexico. Outbreaks continued to be identified in neighbouring states in Mexico till August 2013. To explore the origin of this outbreak, time resolved phylogenetic trees were generated from the eight segments of full-length AIV sequences in North America using BEAST. Location, subtype, avian host species and pathogenicity were modelled as discrete traits upon the trees using continuous time Markov chains. A further joint analysis among segments was performed using a hierarchical phylogenetic model (HPM) which allowed trait rates (location, subtype, host species) to be jointly inferred across different segments. The complete spatial diffusion process was visualised through virtual globe software. Our result indicated the Mexico HP H7N3 originated from the large North America low pathogenicity AIV pool through complicated reassortment events. Different segments were contributed by wild waterfowl from different N. American flyways. Five of the eight segments (HA, NA, NP, M, NS) were introduced from wild birds migrating along the central North American flyway, and PB2, PB1 and PA were introduced via the western North American flyway. These results highlight a potential role for Mexico as a hotspot of virus reassortment as it is where wild birds from different migration routes mix during the winter.

Background An increase in non-B HIV-1 infections among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United Kingdom (UK) has created opportunities for novel recombinants to arise and become established. We used molecular mapping to characterize the importance of such recombinants to the UK HIV epidemic, in order to gain insights into transmission dynamics that can inform control strategies. Methods and Results A total of 55,556 pol (reverse transcriptase and protease) sequences in the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database were analyzed using Subtype Classification Using Evolutionary Algorithms (SCUEAL). Overall 72 patients shared the same A1/D recombination breakpoint in pol, comprising predominantly MSM but also heterosexuals and injecting drug users (IDUs). In six MSM, full-length single genome amplification of plasma HIV-1 RNA was performed in order to characterize the A1/D recombinant. Subtypes and recombination breakpoints were identified using sliding window and jumping profile hidden markov model approaches. Global maximum likelihood trees of gag, pol and env genes were drawn using FastTree version 2.1. Five of the six strains showed the same novel A1/D recombinant (8 breakpoints), which has been classified as CRF50_A1D. The sixth strain showed a complex CRF50_A1D/B/U structure. Divergence dates and phylogeographic inferences were determined using Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis using Sampling Trees (BEAST). This estimated that CRF50_A1D emerged in the UK around 1992 in MSM, with subsequent transmissions to heterosexuals and IDUs. Analysis of CRF50_A1D/B/U demonstrated that around the year 2000 CRF50_A1D underwent recombination with a subtype B strain. Conclusions We report the identification of CRF50_A1D, a novel circulating recombinant that emerged in UK MSM around 1992, with subsequent onward transmission to heterosexuals and IDUs, and more recent recombination with subtype B. These findings highlight the changing dynamics of HIV transmission in the UK and the converging of the two previously distinct MSM and heterosexual epidemics.

Genetic variation at the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) loci has been shown to be an important risk factor for progression to HIV disease, but its significance in infection is less well understood. We have investigated its role in HIV transmission in a cohort of individuals at risk for heterosexual infection. Analysis of over 80 individuals revealed that that the degree of concordance at HLA A, B, and DR loci differs significantly between transmitting and nontransmitting couples at risk for heterosexual HIV transmission (p

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) rapidly develops resistance to lamivudine during monotherapy, typically resulting in the appearance at position 184 in reverse transcriptase (RT) of isoleucine instead of the wild-type methionine (M184I) early in therapy, which is later replaced by valine (M184V). M184V reduces viral susceptibility to drug in vitro by approximately 100-fold, but also results in a lower processivity of RT. We show that a drop in absolute viral fitness associated with the outgrowth of M184V results in a drop in viral load only in individuals with high CD4 + counts, from whom we estimate the relative fitness of M184V in the presence of drug to be approximately 10% of that of the wild type prior to therapy. The timing of emergence of the M184V mutant varies widely between infected individuals. From analysis of the frequency of M184I and M184V mutants determined at multiple time points in seven individuals during lamivudine therapy, we estimated the fitness advantage of M184V over M184I during therapy to be approximately 23% on average. We have also estimated the average ratio of the frequencies of the two mutants prior to therapy to be 0.2:1, with a range from 0.12:1 to 0.33:1. We have found that the differences between individuals in the rate of evolution of lamivudine resistance arise due to genetic drift affecting the relative frequency of M184I and M184V prior to therapy. These results show that stochastic effects can be significant in HIV evolution, even when there is large fitness difference between mutant and wild-type variants.

Objective: To determine whether analysis of sequence variation in reverse transcriptase at baseline can explain differences in response to combination antiretroviral therapy. Methods: Amino acid sequences of reverse transcriptase obtained from baseline isolates from 55 patients included in a trial of zidovudine and didanosine versus zidovudine/didanosine/nevirapine (ACTG241) were analysed. Simple and multiple linear regression were used to determine the relationship between numbers and identity of mutations at baseline and virological response after 8 and 48 weeks. Results: Numbers of baseline zidovudine resistance mutations were predictive of short-term response (week 8). Amino acid identity at position 215 explained . 20% of the variation in response at week 8, but less at week 48. Multiple regression identified the combinations: 215a 44 and 41a 202, each of which explained about 30% of the variation in week 8 response. A model incorporating amino acids 214a 215a 60a 202a baseline viral load explained . 40% of the variation in response at week 48. Unexpectedly, the mutant combination 60Ia 215Y/F responded threefold better than 60Va 215Y/F over 48 weeks. Conclusions: Use of clinical data to analyse virological response to combination therapy has revealed effects of baseline amino acid mutations at sites not previously identified as being important in antiretroviral resistance. Predictors of long-term responses were different from those involved in the short term and may require more complex analysis.

We investigated the effect of selection pressures on evolution of HIV-1 pol in 51 patients after switching to a new antiretroviral combination reverse transcriptase (RT) inhibitor therapy. Evolution of the protease (PR) and RT reading frames were analysed separately. Pairwise evolutionary distances (ED) were calculated between sequences from baseline and week 8 and between baseline and week 48 of protocol therapy. ED were calculated for all substitutions and for synonymous and nonsynonymous substitutions separately. At week 8 when HIV RNA reduction (selection pressure) was high, significantly more divergence in pol in both synonymous and nonsynonymous substitutions was found in patients with substantial RNA reduction (strong responders). Separate analyses of PR and RT revealed significantly greater ED in the RT (under selection pressure) of strong compared with nonresponders, whereas divergence between PR genes (not under selection pressure) did not differ in those two groups. Such differential evolution indicates that PR and RT were genetically unlinked and suggests recombination. The rapid increase of ED over the first 8 weeks was followed by only a minimal further rise by week 48, suggesting that selection of preexisting quasispecies accounted for the early changes. A disproportionally high number of synonymous substitutions accounted for the observed divergence and indicated that such genetic changes may not be completely silent.

In order to investigate the transmission of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) from mother-to-child we have examined serial plasma RNA samples obtained from a mother over an eight year period spanning four pregnancies. Child 1 and 2 (born January 1987 and June 1990) were uninfected whilst child 3 and 4 (born July 1992 and February 1994) were HIV positive. Genetic variation was examined within the viral population of the mother and her two infected children for both the V3 loop and flanking regions of the env gene and the p17 region of the gag gene. In one child (child 4) a highly homogeneous virus population was observed within both env and gag in contrast to the more heterogeneous virus population observed within the mother. Viral sequences of child 4 clustered within a single branch within the reconstructed phylogenetic tree. This is consistent with the transmission of a single maternal variant to the child in this case, which may indicate a selective process. By contrast, child 3 showed substantial genetic heterogeneity even within the first samples obtained shortly after birth. Sequences of child 3 clustered in two distinct groups within the phylogenetic tree and were separated by sequences of the mother. These results are not consistent with the selective transmission of a single maternal variant to the child in this case and we therefore propose that the infection within child 3 is the result of the transmission of multiple sequence variants to the child. All transmitted sequence variants were predicted to be of the macrophage-tropic, nonsyncytium-inducing (NSI) phenotype.

There are few data on the persistence of individual human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) transmitted drug resistance (TDR) mutations in the absence of selective drug pressure. We studied 313 patients in whom TDR mutations were detected at their first resistance test and who had a subsequent test performed while ART-naive. The rate at which mutations became undetectable was estimated using exponential regression accounting for interval censoring. Most thymidine analogue mutations (TAMs) and T215 revertants (but not T215F/Y) were found to be highly stable, with NNRTI and PI mutations being relatively less persistent. Our estimates are important for informing HIV transmission models.

Few questions on infectious disease are more important than understanding how and why avian influenza A viruses successfully emerge in mammalian populations, yet little is known about the rate and nature of the virus’ genetic adaptation in new hosts. Here, we measure, for the first time, the genomic rate of adaptive evolution of swine influenza viruses (SwIV) that originated in birds. By using a curated dataset of more than 24 000 human and swine influenza gene sequences, including 41 newly characterized genomes, we reconstructed the adaptive dynamics of three major SwIV lineages (Eurasian, EA; classical swine, CS; triple reassortant, TR). We found that, following the transfer of the EA lineage from birds to swine in the late 1970s, EA virus genes have undergone substantially faster adaptive evolution than those of the CS lineage, which had circulated among swine for decades. Further, the adaptation rates of the EA lineage antigenic haemagglutinin and neuraminidase genes were unexpectedly high and similar to those observed in human influenza A. We show that the successful establishment of avian influenza viruses in swine is associated with raised adaptive evolution across the entire genome for many years after zoonosis, reflecting the contribution of multiple mutations to the coordinated optimization of viral fitness in a new environment. This dynamics is replicated independently in the polymerase genes of the TR lineage, which established in swine following separate transmission from non-swine hosts.

Reassortment between the RNA segments encoding haemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA), the major antigenic influenza proteins, produces viruses with novel HA and NA subtype combinations and has preceded the emergence of pandemic strains. It has been suggested that productive viral infection requires a balance in the level of functional activity of HA and NA, arising from their closely interacting roles in the viral life cycle, and that this functional balance could be mediated by genetic changes in the HA and NA. Here, we investigate how the selective pressure varies for H7 avian influenza HA on different NA subtype backgrounds. By extending Bayesian stochastic mutational mapping methods to calculate the ratio of the rate of non-synonymous change to the rate of synonymous change (d N /d S ), we found the average d N /d S across the avian influenza H7 HA1 region to be significantly greater on an N2 NA subtype background than on an N1, N3 or N7 background. Observed differences in evolutionary rates of H7 HA on different NA subtype backgrounds could not be attributed to underlying differences between avian host species or virus pathogenicity. Examination of d N /d S values for each subtype on a site-by-site basis indicated that the elevated d N /d S on the N2 NA background was a result of increased selection, rather than a relaxation of selective constraint. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that reassortment exposes influenza HA to significant changes in selective pressure through genetic interactions with NA. Such epistatic effects might be explicitly accounted for in future models of influenza evolution.