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International audience; The development of strategies to reduce vulnerability and increaseadaptation to global changes has become a major challenge for sustainable urbandevelopment, but urban vulnerability and adaptation are not easy concepts tounderstand. The objective of this study is to review the dialectic relations betweenvulnerability and adaptation and to show how integrating vulnerability perception intolocal urban management induces a chain of complex processes. There will beunwanted backwards loops appearing within this chain. This may explain that thewillingness of cities to adapt to climate change can, far from the objective pursued toreduce their vulnerability, create on the contrary the conditions of future catastrophicevents.

El artículo reflexiona sobre la noción de resiliencia y los límites que supone su uso para los investigadores y para quienes implementan las políticas de gestión del riesgo. Por una parte, los organismos internacionales, como la Estrategia Internacional para la Reducción del Riesgo (EIRD) o centros de investigación, como Resilience Alliance promueven explícitamente el reforzamiento de la resiliencia. De otro lado, su uso es escaso en las políticas a escala nacional tanto en Francia como en Colombia y existe una gran cantidad de investigadores que cuestiona su utilización, tras resaltar la gran divergencia de significados que se derivan de esta. En la primera parte del texto se analiza la historia de la noción y sus acepciones en diferentes disciplinas. En la segunda sección se analizan los estudios de caso de Francia y Colombia y la manera como se emplea en las políticas públicas y en su implementación en el terreno. La tercera parte busca explicar el desfase entre su promoción en el discurso dominante internacional y las reticencias entre investigadores y gestores. Se resaltan los condicionantes políticos, institucionales y culturales asociados con su empleo y las contradicciones que implican. Al igual que el desastre, la resiliencia depende de las escalas y de los actores objeto de análisis, por lo que comprender esta relación es crucial para entender dichas contradicciones. La resiliencia no tiene un significado absoluto, pero su importancia se explica porque permite identificar factores de construcción del riesgo. O artigo procura compreender o interesse e os limites da noção de resiliência para os pesquisadores e os gestionários comprometidos com a gestão de riscos. De um lado, certas instituições internacionais, como ISDR, alguns pesquisadores, como aqueles da Resilience Alliance, promovem explicitamente a noção de resiliência. Mas, de outro, raros são os políticos que se prevalecem efetivamente da resiliência, seja na Colômbia ou na França. E não faltam pesquisadores reticentes a sua mobilização. A primeira parte do artigo traz o histórico dessa noção e de sua utilização, antes de mostrar, na segunda, o quanto é pouco utilizado pelos gestores, seja na Colômbia ou na França. Como explicar mara resistência que existe atualmente ao utilizar esse conceito? A terceira parte traz indícios que nos ajuda a compreender essas diferenças. Ela faz particularmente ressurgir os múltiplos condicionantes institucionais e políticos que são associados à mobilização da noção. Tal como seu caráter contraditório, em função dos atores e das escalas de análise que implicam o esforço de interpretação e de gestão associados à prevenção de desastres. A resiliência, por quais atores, a que nível? Este questionamento deverá ser posto para identificar as contradições. Porque, tal como para os desastres, e como mostrado, os pesquisadores da Resilience Alliance, a resiliência não pode ter um significado absoluto. Contudo, a noção pode contribuir para identificar tendências da preparação de desastres. Isso por si só permite compreender porque pode ser promovida pelas agências da ONU. This paper investigates a discrepancy concerning resilience. International institutions such as ISDR try to promote resilience as a notion useful for preventing disasters. And some searchers, mainly coming from ecology, such as Resilience Alliance group, found the notion relevant enough to promote it as a brand for their studies on disaster prevention. Yet, the second part of the paper will verify how other searchers are still not convinced by the relevance of the notion. Territorial managers are reluctant as well, in line with the poor number of policies trying to bring resilience to reality, be it in Columbia or in France. How can we make sense of this discrepancy? The paper will stress on various political, institutional and cultural conditionings hidden behind the notion. It will also enlighten the contradictions embedded within the notion, because resilience, as disaster, depends on the scales and the actors the analysis relies on first. Which resilience to whom and at what scale? These are critical questions that should be addressed in order to give sense to these contradictions. Resilience has no absolute meaning. However, it helps identifying trends towards future disasters. This is one of the main reasons why it may be found useful.

This paper explains and criticizes the methods used by the authors when they worked for the ECHO program of the European Commission. Among others, they had to assess risk levels in the countries targeted by this program, and to find out a cartographical representation of the results obtained., L'article présente et critique la méthodologie employée lors de deux études réalisées par les auteurs pour le compte de la Communauté Européenne (programme ECHO). L'objectif était, notamment, de réaliser des cartes de risque des pays concernés par les deux programmes (Amérique Centrale et Caraïbes, Asie du sud-est et Bangladesh).

International audience; The purpose of this paper is to compare the results obtained by two different methods applied when assessing risks levels concerning countries of South- East Asia, Central America and the Caribbeans : the phenomenological (a posteriori) and the probabilistic (a priori) ones. The fact the results did not match-challenged the quality of information but also cast some light on the unequal distribution of evidence of disasters. Therefore, if a geographic approach benefits the assessment of risks when applying its own methods, in turn, risk assessment stresses the necessity to reflect on the methods and the object of geography as well.; L’article compare les résultats qu’ont fournis deux méthodes permettant d’établir un bilan des risques dits naturels lors de deux travaux d’expertise pour la Communauté européenne, concernant l’Asie du Sud-Est, l’Amérique centrale et les Caraïbes : l’approche probabiliste, a priori, et l’approche phénoménologique, a posteriori. Les distorsions observées alors facilitent le raisonnement géographique et poussent à réfléchir sur la signification de l’information à partir de laquelle le géographe est amené à travailler. On en déduit que si la démarche géographique est intéressante dès lors qu’il s’agit d’établir des diagnostics à l’intention des pouvoirs publics, l’expertise, en retour, permet de réfléchir sur l’intérêt et les limites de la démarche géographique, s’agissant de la géographie des risques.

International audience; The purpose of this paper is to compare the results obtained by two different methods applied when assessing risks levels concerning countries of South- East Asia, Central America and the Caribbeans : the phenomenological (a posteriori) and the probabilistic (a priori) ones. The fact the results did not match-challenged the quality of information but also cast some light on the unequal distribution of evidence of disasters. Therefore, if a geographic approach benefits the assessment of risks when applying its own methods, in turn, risk assessment stresses the necessity to reflect on the methods and the object of geography as well.; L’article compare les résultats qu’ont fournis deux méthodes permettant d’établir un bilan des risques dits naturels lors de deux travaux d’expertise pour la Communauté européenne, concernant l’Asie du Sud-Est, l’Amérique centrale et les Caraïbes : l’approche probabiliste, a priori, et l’approche phénoménologique, a posteriori. Les distorsions observées alors facilitent le raisonnement géographique et poussent à réfléchir sur la signification de l’information à partir de laquelle le géographe est amené à travailler. On en déduit que si la démarche géographique est intéressante dès lors qu’il s’agit d’établir des diagnostics à l’intention des pouvoirs publics, l’expertise, en retour, permet de réfléchir sur l’intérêt et les limites de la démarche géographique, s’agissant de la géographie des risques.

In 1996, the European Commission Humanitarian Office (ECHO) launched a regional approach initiative for natural disaster preparedness and prevention; this initiative focused initially on Central America, the Caribbean, SE Asia and Bangladesh. The first phase of this programme involved a diagnostic studies which constituted the basis for reflection and decision-making prior to the ECHO action plans as part of the Disaster Preparedness ECHO(DIPECHO).As regards SE Asia, and Bangladesh, the diagnosis in the strict sense of the word was carried out by CRED-UCL in collaboration with Luc VROLUKS, a CRED consultant (Cred/Vrolijks, 1997). The present study is aimed at supplementing this work and lays special emphasis on the consequences of natural disasters in the region, the damage-generating phenomena, the different criteria and levels of vulnerabilities and the risks incurred at regional and national scales, The study also aims at giving, in the same perspective, a graphical and cartographical base useful in the communication and decision-making.The study entrusted to CIFEG (International Centre for Training and Exchanges in the Geosciences) by CRED-VCL and ECHO was carried out jointly by Robert D'ERCOLE andPatrick PIGEON from the department of Geography of Université de Savoie, Chambéry, France. The study is based on a consistent documentation: scientific work, studies and reports collected by CRED-UCL, the United Nations offices in Geneva, the University of Savoie and that of Lausanne, Switzerland. The CRED-UCL Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) is, too, a key part of the study.