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This Country Partnership Framework (CPF) presents the World Bank Group (WBG) program and the associated results framework for Lebanon for the period FY17-FY22. In a fragile and conflict-prone environment, this CPF aims at mitigating the immediate, and potentially long-lasting impact of the Syria crisis on Lebanon, while strengthening state institutions, addressing existing vulnerabilities, and bolstering efforts on longer term development challenges, all through interventions that foster inclusion and shared prosperity. The CPF will work through two focus areas as a way to renew the social contract between the state and the citizens: (i) expand access to and quality of service delivery; and (ii) expand economic opportunities and increase human capital. Through these two focus areas, the WBG will help Lebanon mitigate the economic and social impact of the Syria crisis, safeguard the country’s development gains, and enhance the prospects for stability and development in the coming years. The CPF will contribute to strengthening the relationship between the state and its citizens, a critical ingredient for peace and stability. The CPF will contribute to strengthening the relationship between the state and its citizens, a critical ingredient for peace and stability. The CPF benefited from a series of stakeholder consultations, including those held in connection with the Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) and the WBG Gender Strategy.

The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) is a constitutionally recognized semiautonomous region in northern Iraq. Its government, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), based in Erbil, has the right, under the Iraqi constitution of 2005, to exercise legislative, executive, and judicial powers according to the constitution, except in what is listed therein as exclusive powers of the federal authorities. The Iraqi constitution defines the Kurdistan Region as a federal entity of Iraq. KRG has a parliamentary democracy with a regional assembly that consists of 111 seats. KRI has been largely immune to the insecurity and conflict witnessed elsewhere in Iraq, especially following the 2003 Iraq War. KRG is facing a wide range of immediate and medium to longer-term challenges that are intrinsically linked to the overall macroeconomic situation of Iraq as well as the regional and global environment. The immediate challenge consists in coping with (a) the deep fiscal crisis, and (b) the security and social problems brought about by the conflict with the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group and the resulting influx of Syrian refugees and Iraqi Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). These challenges are clearly immediate priorities for the KRG, and will bear significant repercussions nationally and internationally if inadequately addressed. The medium to longer-term challenges pertain to moderating dependence on the oil sector and transforming the KRI economy into a diversified one that supports private sector-led economic growth and job creation in a sustainable manner.

Evidence indicates that trade costs are a much more substantial barrier to trade than tariffs are, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper decomposes trade costs into: (i) trade facilitation, (ii) non-tariff barriers, and (iii) the costs of business services. The paper assesses the poverty and shared prosperity impacts of deep integration to reduce these three types of trade costs in: (i) the East African Customs Union–Common Market of East and Southern Africa–South African Development Community "Tripartite" Free Trade Area; (ii) within the East African Customs Union; and (iii) unilaterally by the East African Customs Union. The analysis employs an innovative, multi-region computable general equilibrium model to estimate the changes in the macroeconomic variables that impact poverty and shared prosperity. The model estimates are used in the Global Income Distribution Dynamics microsimulation model to obtain assessments of the changes in the poverty headcount and shared prosperity for each of the simulations for the six African regions or countries. The paper finds that these reforms are pro-poor. There are significant reductions in the poverty headcount and the percentage of the population living in poverty for all six of the African regions from deep integration in the Tripartite Free Trade Area or comparable unilateral reforms by the East African Customs Union. Further, the incomes of the bottom 40 percent of the populations noticeably increase in all countries or regions that are engaged in the trade reforms. The reason for the poor share in prosperity is the fact that the reforms increase unskilled wages faster than the rewards of other factors of production, as the reforms tend to favor agriculture. Despite the uniform increases in income for the poorest 40 percent, there are some cases where the share of income captured by the poorest 40 percent of the population decreases. The estimated gains vary considerably across countries and reforms. Thus, countries would have an interest in negotiating for different reforms in different agreements.

International supply chains require the coordination of numerous activities across multiple countries and firms. This paper develops a theoretical model of supply chains in which the measure of tasks completed within a firm is determined by parameters that define transaction costs and the cost of coordinating more activities within the firm. The structural parameters that govern these costs explain variation in supply chain length as well as cross-country variation in gross-output-to-value-added ratios. The structural parameters are linked to comparative advantage along and across supply chains. The paper provides an analytical treatment of trade and welfare responses to trade cost change in a simple two-country model. To explore the models implications in a richer setting, the model is calibrated to match key observables in East Asia, and the calibrated model is used to evaluate implications of changes in model parameters for trade, welfare, the length of supply chains, and countries relative position within them.

This Country Partnership Framework (CPF) sets out the World Bank Group (WBG) program for Albania for the period FY15-19, aimed at supporting Albanias aspiration to achieve equitable growth and integration into the European Union. Albania emerged from the collapse of isolationist communism in the early 1990s as one of the poorest countries in Europe. The country then experienced rapid growth of nearly 6 percent per annum, rising into the ranks of middle income countries by 2008. The global and Eurozone crises in 2008 brought Albanias growth to a near stand-still by 2012, and the country is struggling to recover, particularly given its historic ties to Europes poorer performing economies. The CPF reflects selectivity based on the fundamental priorities of the System Country Diagnostic (SCD) that allows for ramping up support from the World Bank Group. The CPF selectively chooses only five of the twelve SCD priorities, and builds a program of support around this subset of priorities on the basis of additional selectivity filters. These five fundamental priorities include: 1) restoring fiscal sustainability and maintaining financial stability; 2) establishing a high quality business environment; 3) providing clean, efficient, equitable and financially sustainable energy; 4) formalizing and enhancing inclusiveness and sustainability of land markets; and 5) enhancing governance, transparency and accountability of government.

For more than a decade, Africa has enjoyed a mineral boom. is the growth mostly happening in isolated places, sectors and periods? The approach adopted in this study is two-pronged. First, through case studies, including the results of fieldwork, mining’s impacts are examined in a country-specific context for each of three countries, Ghana, Mali, and Tanzania; and second, a statistical analysis is used to test whether the indicators of welfare improve with proximity to a mine.

The expansion of international trade has been essential to development and poverty reduction. Todays economy is unquestionable global. Trade as a proportion of global GDP has approximately doubled since 1975. Markets for goods and services have become increasingly integrated through a fall in trade barriers, with technology helping drive trade costs lower. But trade is not an end in itself. People measure the value of trade by the extent to which it delivers better livelihoods, through higher incomes, greater choice, and a more sustainable future, among other benefits. For the extreme poor living on less than $1.25 a day, the central value of trade is its potential to help transform their lives and those of their families. In this way, there is no doubt that the integration of global markets through trade openness has made a critical contribution to poverty reduction. The number of people living in extreme poverty around the world has fallen by around one billion since 1990. Without the growing participation of developing countries in international trade, and sustained efforts to lower barriers to the integration of markets, it is hard to see how this reduction could have been achieved.

The Tunisia Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) seeks to identify the challenges and opportunities to achieve the twin goals of reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity in a sustainable way. This SCD takes into account Tunisia’s historical sociopolitical context and the political economy of past reforms to provide the context for the challenges and opportunities that exist today to make progress toward the twin goals. The economic policies of the two decades preceding the 2011 revolution delivered widely recognized achievements, including growth rates above the regional average, impressive progress in human development indicators and reduced poverty. However, they failed to address, and even exacerbated, the deep-rooted distortions in the economy that closed the channels, in particular, productive employment and job creation, for a more equal and inclusive society. These distortions were also grounded in a tightly controlled social and political space that favored the elite while repressing others. This development model proved to be economically and socially unsustainable. With a new constitution adopted in 2014 and a democratically-elected government established in 2015, there is today an unprecedented window of opportunity for Tunisia to embark on deep structural reforms to open the channels conducive to a more equal and inclusive society and put the country on a path of more sustainable development. The SCD identifies key opportunities to build on Tunisia’s multiple strengths and economic potential to help guide future development policies. It highlights the importance of social and political stability (as well as domestic security) as prerequisites for critical reforms to be undertaken, as well as the importance of voice, transparency, and accountability in all economic and institutional spheres for those reforms to be sustainable.

The objective of this Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) is to identify the priority constraints Bolivia faces in sustaining its gains on reducing poverty and enhancing shared prosperity over the next years. It will analyze the dynamics behind the progress achieved in the past decade on inclusive growth, and identify a number of key constraints for sustaining and consolidating this progress. The SCD begins, in Chapter two, with a presentation of four characteristics that make Bolivia special, including its State‐led development strategy, large natural resource wealth, difficult geography and landlocked condition, and rich ethnic diversity. In chapter three, this SCD presents an in‐depth evaluation of the generally positive evolution in growth and in the reduction of poverty and inequality over the past decade. An assessment of the recent past and current context concludes that there is a need for enabling new inclusive growth engines, particularly through increased private investment and higher productivity. Chapter four makes a case for rebalancing the path of inclusive growth, and presents three main challenges in this sense: sustaining macroeconomic and fiscal stability, developing non‐extractive sectors with higher productivity and a lower environmental footprint, and reducing gaps and disparities in access to opportunities. The discussion of these challenges reveals a number of priority constraints, a key input for the prioritization exercise. Finally, in chapter five the SCD presents the findings of a prioritization exercise aimed at producing a restricted list of prioritized constraints, as well as a list of knowledge gaps identified in the different parts of the analysis.

This Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) aims to identify the major constraints on and opportunities for sustaining poverty reduction and shared prosperity in Serbia. The SCD serves as the analytic foundation on which the World Bank Group and the Government of Serbia will define a new Country Partnership Framework for FY2016 to FY2020. It is based on the best possible analysis, drawing on available evidence, and not limited to areas where the World Bank Group is currently engaged. The SCD is structured as follows: Chapter 2 presents the political and economic context. The economic context describes recent trends in growth, shared prosperity, and poverty reduction and briefly discusses factors behind them. Chapter 3 discusses pre-crisis patterns of growth and opportunities for future growth and inclusion in Serbia. Chapter 4 presents drivers of economic growth in Serbia and the principal constraints on growth and competitiveness. Chapter 5 discusses drivers of and constraints to economic inclusion. Chapter 6 outlines risks to sustainable shared prosperity and poverty reduction. Chapter 7 presents priorities for action.

Pakistan’s trade indicators reflect low outward orientation, concentration on low value added activities and an undiversified product mix which out of line with the fastest growing areas of world demand. The export share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has remained low and falling—fro

This paper analyzes the economic effects of agricultural price and merchandise trade policies around the world as of 2004 on global markets, net farm incomes, and national and regional economic welfare and poverty, using the global economy wide Linkage model, new estimates of agricultural price distortions for developing countries, and poverty elasticity's approach. It addresses two questions: to what extent are policies as of 2004 still reducing rewards from farming in developing countries and thereby adding to inequality across countries in farm household incomes? Are they depressing value added more in primary agriculture than in the rest of the economy of developing countries, and earnings of unskilled workers more than of owners of other factors of production, thereby potentially contributing to inequality and poverty within developing countries (given that farm incomes are well below non-farm incomes in most developing countries and that agriculture there is intensive in the use of unskilled labor)? Results are presented for the key countries and regions of the world and for the world as a whole. They reveal that, by moving to free markets, income inequality between countries will be reduced at least slightly, all but one-sixth of the gains to developing countries will come from agricultural policy reform, unskilled workers in developing countries the majority of whom work on farms will benefit most from reform, net farm incomes in developing countries will rise by 6 percent compared with 2 percent for non-agricultural value added, and the number of people surviving on less than US$1 a day will drop 3 percent globally.

This paper analyzes the poverty and inequality implications of removing agricultural and non-agricultural price distortions in the domestic market of the Philippines and abroad. Liberalization in the rest of the world is poverty and inequality reducing, whereas full domestic liberalization increases national poverty and inequality. Poverty declines while inequality increases marginally in the combined scenario of both global and domestic agriculture reform. Although the reduction in the national poverty headcount is small in the latter scenario, the poorest of the poor, particularly those living in the rural areas, emerge as 'winners', given their strong reliance on agricultural production and unskilled labor wages.

The Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations stalled in 2008 owing in no small degree to a lack of agreement on the terms of substantially reducing trade-distorting support for agricultural products and to what extent this will be beneficial to developing countries. Nicaragua presents an interesting case in point, being one of the poorest economies in Latin America with still a relatively large agricultural sector and high degrees of rural poverty. In 2005, the country signed a free trade agreement with the United States. This chapter provides a quantitative analysis addressing that question. It does so using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Nicaragua coupled with a micro-simulation methodology. The first section provides background information on trade reform policies and macroeconomic trends in Nicaragua, with special reference to the agricultural sector and rural poverty. The section that follows describes the main features of the CGE model and the micro-simulation methodology used to assess the impact on poverty and inequality. The author then lay out the model scenarios considered, which include liberalizations of agricultural and all merchandise goods trade by the rest of the world and by Nicaragua itself. That is followed by a summary analysis of results. This analysis includes tests for the sensitivity of the results with respect to assumptions regarding the responsiveness of trade to price liberalization, as identified through the relevant trade elasticities. The final section provides conclusions and possible policy implications.

Major changes are needed if Africans and their children are to claim the 21st century. With the rapidly growing population, 5 percent annual growth is needed simply to keep the number of poor from rising. Halving severe poverty by 2015 will require annual growth of more than 7 percent, along with a more equitable distribution of income. Trends in Africa will need to change radically for a catch-up process to materialize. This will require determined leadership within Africa. It will require better governance developing stable and representative constitutional arrangements, implementing the rule of law, managing resources transparently, and delivering services effectively to communities and firms. It will require greater investment in Africas people as well as measures that encourage private investment in infrastructure and production. And it will require better support and perhaps more support from the international development community. In facing these challenges, Africa has enormous potential including the potential of its women, who now provide more than half of the regions labor but lack equal access to education and factors of production. This report brings together the recent body of work particularly that emanating from Africa itself to show how some African countries are approaching common issues. African economies and sub-regions are diverse and each will have to find its way to address the challenges of the 21st century.

Discussions of competition and regulatory reform typically focus on price and quantity effects. But improving certain infrastructure services can also stimulate entry, and competition in user industries downstream, allowing new firms to enter, incumbent users to offer new products, and rivalry to intensify. The authors present a case study of how innovations in road freight services affect selected downstream users of those services after regulatory reform. After a period of rigid regulation, and heavy government interference, Mexico in 1989 developed a new policy framework for road transport, with free entry, and market-based price setting. The result: faster, more reliable trucking has allowed user companies to offer new, previously unavailable products, and to reach new areas with existing products. Cheaper, more customer-responsive trucking services have allowed logistical innovations in user firms, and some user firms have decided not to keep their own fleets of trucks, but to outsource trucking services on the open market, thereby converting fixed costs to variable costs. For one fertilizer company, the benefits of reform included a ten percent improvement in operating margin. Successful reform requires careful planning and execution, and political support at high levels. Regulatory reform also profoundly changes the sectoral institution formerly responsible for the regulation. Enough resources should be provided to help organizations in the reformed industry make the transition to the post-reform environment - helping with such tasks as defining the organizations new role, and facilitating the redeployment of staff. The national competition agency can help greatly in laying the groundwork for reform by making a compelling case for the reforms expected benefits. After reform, the competition agency should also help with enforcement, to ensure that the cozy, cartel-like behavior stimulated by tight entry restrictions does not persist. In Mexico, three strong interventions were required to discipline attempted anti-competitive practices in the trucking industry in the years following reform.

In the late 1980s, Chile planned to privatize Santiago's sanitary works enterprise (EMOS) but instead reformed it under public ownership. It did so through a regulatory framework that mimicked the design of a concession with a private utility, setting tariffs that ensured at least a seven percent return on assets, creating a neutral regulator independent of ministry intervention, and giving EMOS the right to appeal the regulator's tariff decisions. This reform of Santiago's water system is often cited as a case of successful reform under public management. Comparing a comprehensive measure of welfare with a counterfactual example, the authors show surprisingly large gains from Santiago's reform, given the relatively good initial conditions. (The gains accrued largely to government and employees, but consumers benefited from improved service and coverage). Why did reform in Santiago improve water system performance, when similar reform attempts under public management in other countries failed? 1) Chile has a long tradition of private water rights, shaped by early recognition that water is a scarce and tradable private good. 2) The reformed regulatory framework was designed to attract private investors to the water system and to motivate them to operate efficiently and expand the system. 3) Chile's unique electoral institutions sustained this framework under state operation after democracy was restored. 4) Chile's strong bureaucratic norms and institutions (permitting little corruption), combined with Santiago's relatively low-cost water system, permitted prices that effectively increased quasi-rents for investing in the system while minimizing the risk of inefficiency or monopoly rents. The authors also address the question of why EMOS was reformed but not privatized, and what the costs of not privatizing were. The system was privatized in 1999, but the changes from privatization are likely to be less significant than those introduced in 1989-90.

The year’s report projects an increase in the growth rate of global output, with notable contributions from Sub-Saharan Africa, the developing countries of Europe and Central Asian, and East Asian countries. This report places special emphasis on the role of the “Big 5” developing and transition economies – China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, and Russia – in the future of the global economy. In addition to assessing the current state of the world economy, this report discusses the expansion of global production and the costs of making the transition to a more open economy

The Africa Competitiveness Report 2015 comes out at a promising time for the continent: for 15 years growth rates have averaged over 5 percent, and rapid population growth holds the promise of a large emerging consumer market as well as an unprecedented labor force that - if leveraged - can provide significant growth opportunities. Moreover, the expansion of innovative business models, such as mobile technology services, is indicative of the continents growth potential. However, Africa continues to be largely agrarian, with an economy that is underpinned by resource-driven growth and a large and expanding informal sector. Indeed, more than a decade of consistently high growth rates have not yet trickled down to significant parts of the population: nearly one out of two Africans continue to live in extreme poverty, and income inequality in the region remains among the highest in the world. What is more, across sectors - from agriculture to manufacturing and services - productivity levels remain low. It will be necessary to raise productivity across all sectors of the economy to achieve higher growth and create quality employment, and turn this progress into sustainable inclusive growth.