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Importance The optimal international normalized ratio (INR) to prevent venous thromboembolism (VTE) in warfarin-treated patients with recent arthroplasty is unknown. Objective To determine the safety and efficacy of a target INR of 1.8 vs 2.5 for VTE prophylaxis after orthopedic surgery. Design, Setting, and Participants The randomized Genetic Informatics Trial (GIFT) of Warfarin to Prevent Deep Vein Thrombosis enrolled 1650 patients aged 65 years or older initiating warfarin for elective hip or knee arthroplasty at 6 US medical centers. Enrollment began in April 2011 and follow-up concluded in October 2016. Interventions In a 2 × 2 factorial design, participants were randomized to a target INR of 1.8 (n = 823) or 2.5 (n = 827) and to either genotype-guided or clinically guided warfarin dosing. For the first 11 days of therapy, open-label warfarin dosing was guided by a web application. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was the composite of VTE (within 60 days) or death (within 30 days). Participants underwent screening duplex ultrasound postoperatively. The hypothesis was that an INR target of 1.8 would be noninferior to an INR target of 2.5, using a noninferiority margin of 3% for the absolute risk of VTE. Secondary end points were bleeding and INR values of 4 or more. Results Among 1650 patients who were randomized (mean age, 72.1 years; 1049 women [63.6%]; 1502 white [91.0%]), 1597 (96.8%) received at least 1 dose of warfarin and were included in the primary analysis. The rate of the primary composite outcome of VTE or death was 5.1% (41 of 804) in the low-intensity-warfarin group (INR target, 1.8) vs 3.8% (30 of 793) in the standard-treatment-warfarin group (INR target, 2.5), for a difference of 1.3% (1-sided 95% CI, −∞ to 3.05%,P = .06 for noninferiority). Major bleeding occurred in 0.4% of patients in the low-intensity group and 0.9% of patients in the standard-intensity group, for a difference of −0.5% (95% CI, −1.6% to 0.4%). The INR values of 4 or more occurred in 4.5% of patients in the low-intensity group and 12.2% of the standard-intensity group, for a difference of −7.8% (95% CI, −10.5% to −5.1%). Conclusions and Relevance Among older patients undergoing hip or knee arthroplasty and receiving warfarin prophylaxis, an international normalized ratio goal of 1.8 compared with 2.5 did not meet the criterion for noninferiority for risk of the composite outcome of VTE or death. However, the trial may have been underpowered to meet this criterion and further research may be warranted. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier:NCT01006733

Warfarin-dosing algorithms combine clinical factors and dosing history with the current international normalized ratio (INR) to estimate the therapeutic warfarin dose. Unfortunately, these approaches can result in an overdose if the INR is spuriously low. Our goal was to develop an alert mechanism based on prior INRs in addition to the current INR. Using data from the Genetics InFormatics Trial (GIFT) of Warfarin to Prevent DVT, we analyzed warfarin dose estimates for days 3 through 11 that were ≥10 % higher than an average of the previous two dose estimates. We fit a stepwise mixed model to current and prior dose estimates, and subsequently compared the root-mean-square-error (RMSE) in predicting the final therapeutic dose using the GIFT algorithm versus the mixed model. From 861 dosing records (obtain from 556 patients), 646 dosing records (75 %) were randomly selected for the derivation cohort and 215 dosing records (25 %) for the validation cohort. Using one prior dose estimate improved the accuracy of the warfarin dose estimate. Compared to a dose estimate based on current INR (GIFT algorithm), the mixed model reduced the RMSE in the derivation cohort by 0.0015 mg/day (RMSE 0.2079 vs. 0.2094; p = 0.039). In the validation cohort, the RMSE reduction was not significant. A mixed model of dose estimates based on the current and most recent INRs shows potential to improve the safety of warfarin dosing. Clinicians should be cautious about aggressively escalating the warfarin dose after an INR that is lower than expected.