1. Patients with complete clinical response after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for locally advanced esophageal cancer: A Markov decision analysis of esophagectomy versus active surveillance.
- Author
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Bondzi-Simpson A, Ribeiro T, Grant A, Ko M, Coburn N, Hallet J, Kulkarni GS, and Kidane B
- Subjects
- Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Chemoradiotherapy, Adjuvant adverse effects, Quality of Life, Treatment Outcome, Clinical Decision-Making, Neoplasm Staging, Time Factors, Esophageal Neoplasms therapy, Esophageal Neoplasms pathology, Esophageal Neoplasms mortality, Esophagectomy adverse effects, Markov Chains, Neoadjuvant Therapy mortality, Neoadjuvant Therapy adverse effects, Decision Support Techniques, Watchful Waiting, Quality-Adjusted Life Years
- Abstract
Objective: Chemoradiation followed by esophagectomy is a standard treatment option for patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer (LAEC). Esophagectomy is a high-risk procedure, and recent evidence suggests select patients may benefit from omitting or delaying surgery. This study aims to compare surgery versus active surveillance for LAEC patients with complete clinical response (cCR) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT)., Methods: Decision analysis with Markov modeling was used. The base case was a 60-year-old man with T3N0M0 esophageal cancer with cCR after nCRT. The decision was modeled for a 5-year time horizon. Primary outcomes were life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY). Probabilities and utilities were derived through the literature. Deterministic sensitivity analyses were performed using ranges from the literature with consideration for clinical plausibility., Results: Surgery was favored for survival with an expected life-years of 2.89 versus 2.64. After incorporating quality of life, active surveillance was favored, with an expected QALY of 1.70 versus 1.56. The model was sensitive to probability of recurrence on active surveillance (threshold value 0.598), probability of recurrence being resectable (0.318), and disutility of previous esophagectomy (-0.091). The model was not sensitive to perioperative morbidity and mortality., Conclusions: Our study finds that surgery increases life expectancy but decreases QALY. Although the incremental change in QALY for either modality is insufficient to make broad clinical recommendations, our study demonstrates that either approach is acceptable. As probabilities of key factors are further defined in the literature, treatment decisions for patients with LAEC and a cCR after nCRT should consider histology, patient values, and quality of life., Competing Interests: Conflict of Interest Statement Dr Kidane discloses receiving speaker and advisory board honoraria from AstraZeneca, Merk, Bristol-Meyers-Squibb, and Medtronic. Dr Kidane is the associate statistical editor for the American Association for Thoracic Surgery. All other authors reported no conflicts of interest. The Journal policy requires editors and reviewers to disclose conflicts of interest and to decline handling or reviewing manuscripts for which they may have a conflict of interest. The editors and reviewers of this article have no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2024 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2024
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