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Excess sediment and nutrient losses from intensifying agriculture degrade water quality and boost plant growth. The relationship between circulation patterns, spatial water quality degradation, and water hyacinth infestation is not adequately studied. The objective of this study is, therefore, to investigate the effect of lake circulation patterns on sediment and nutrient distribution and its implication on the spread of water hyacinth in a tropical lake. This study was carried out in Lake Tana, the largest freshwater lake in Ethiopia, where sediment and nutrient concentrations are increasing, and water hyacinths have become a challenge since 2011. The lake circulation pattern was simulated by the Delft3D model based on a bathymetry survey, discharge, and meteorological forcings. To predict the transport path of sediments and dissolved nutrients, an inert tracer was released in the four main river inlets of the lake. Observed lake water level measurements were used to validate the model. Our results show that the lake circulation pattern could explain the transport path of sediment and nutrients and the location of the water hyacinths found in the northeast of the lake. Sediments and nutrients from the largest river, Gilgel Abay, in the southeast of Lake Tana, flow through the two outlets nearby with little sediment deposition due to the relatively short retention time. The phosphorus-rich sediments of the 24 h at 105 °C remaining three main rivers joining the lake at the north and east are transported to the northeast. Thus, the management and control of water hyacinths should focus on the northern and eastern catchment areas of Lake Tana. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the auspices of the UN Millennium Development Goals, access to safe drinking water in the developing world, including the Ethiopian highlands, has improved greatly. However, in many cases, it is not known how safe the water is. With the intensification of agriculture and increasing applications of fertilizers, high levels of nitrate are a concern. The objective of this study is to assess the nitrate levels in drinking water supply systems. To assess nitrate levels, we sampled 213 water supply points in a 4880 km2 area in the northwest Ethiopian highlands. The results show that the average concentration was below the World Health Organization (WHO) health standard of 10 mg N-NO3/L. The average concentration in wells was 3.3 mg N-NO3/L and in springs was 1.8 mg N-NO3/L. Only in three wells, that were in agricultural cropped areas, was the WHO standard exceeded. Wells in the agricultural fields had an average nitrate concentration of 3.6 mg N-NO3/L, which was almost twice that on grazing land and four times that in upland wells. Spatially, the groundwater nitrate concentrations were greater in the moderately sloped parts of the study area where agriculture was intensive and denitrification limited. Thus, although current nitrate levels are safe, in the future, the nitrate concentration could exceed the WHO health standard when fertilizer use increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Agricultural intensification to meet the food needs of the rapidly growing population in developing countries affects water quality. In regions such as the Lake Tana basin, knowledge is lacking on measures to reduce non-point source pollutants in humid tropical monsoon climates. The aim of this paper was, therefore, to develop a non-point model that can predict the placement of practices to reduce the transport of sediment and phosphorus (P) in a (sub) humid watershed. Materials and methods: In order to achieve the objective, hydrometeorological, sediment, and P data were collected in the watershed since 2014. The parameter efficient semi-distributed watershed model (PED-WM) was calibrated and validated in the Ethiopian highlands to simulate runoff and associated sediments generated through saturation excess. The P module added to PED-WM was used to predict dissolved (DP) and particulate P (PP) loads aside from discharge and sediment loads of the 700 ha of the Awramba watershed of Lake Tana basin. The PED-WM modules were evaluated using the statistical model performance measuring techniques. The model parameter based prediction of source areas for the non-point source sediment and P was also evaluated spatially and compared with the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) of the watershed. Results and discussion: The water balance component of the non-point source model performed well in predicting discharge, sediment, DP, and PP with NSE of 0.7, 0.65, 0.65, and 0.63, respectively. In addition, the predicted discharge followed the hydrograph with insignificant deviation from its pattern due to seasonality. The model predicted a sediment yield of 28.2 t ha year and P yield of 9.2 kg ha year from Awrmaba. Furthermore, non-point source areas contributed to 2.7 kg ha year (29%) of DP at the outlet. The main runoff and sediment source areas identified using PED-WM were the periodically saturated runoff areas. These saturated areas were also the main source for DP and PP transport in the catchment. Conclusions: Using the PED-WM with the P module enables the identification of the source areas as well as the prediction of P and sediment loading which yields valuable information for watershed management and placement of best management practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid population growth and agricultural intensification have been directly associated with land degradation and with visible deterioration in water quality in the Ethiopian lakes. Assessing the extent and origin of pollution is cumbersome because of the lack of measurements for water quality parameters. This paper reports on the dissolved phosphorus (DP) concentrations in Lake Tana and its tributaries during 3 years from 2010 to 2012 and the four rainy months in 2014. Concentrations in the headwaters, at the gaging station, at the river mouth, near shore (littoral), and in the open lake (pelagic) were measured for the four major rivers. DP concentration in the rivers was on the average 0·32 mg l−1, and DP in the lake was much lower with an average concentration of 0·10 mg l−1. Temporally, DP concentrations were greater in the rainy phase of the monsoon than in the dry phase from November through March. Moreover, an upward trend in DP concentrations is coinciding with the area expansion of water hyacinths in the lake. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gully erosion reduces agricultural productivity by destroying valuable land resources, increases sediment concentrations, reduces water quality, and fills up reservoirs. Gully rehabilitation has proven to be challenging especially in the high-rainfall areas of the Ethiopian Highlands and has therefore had limited success. This paper describes a successful low-cost gully rehabilitation effort with community participation in the Birr watershed in the Blue Nile basin that begun in early 2013. Initially, farmers were reluctant to participate for religious reasons, but with the aid of local priests and respected elders, community discussions, and a visit to a rehabilitated gully, a consensus was reached to rehabilitate a 0·71-ha upland gully. The rehabilitation measures consisted of regrading the gully head at a 45° slope, constructing low-cost check dams from locally available materials, and planting Pennisetum purpureum grass and Sesbania sesban. At the end of the first post-implementation rainy season, 2,200 tons of soil was conserved by the constructed check dams and newly planted vegetation, compared with soil losses of 680 and 560 tons in two untreated, nearby gullies. In 2014, an additional 3,100 tons of soil was conserved. In 2013, the marginal rate of return (MRR) on the gully rehabilitation investment was 2·6 based on the value of increased forage production alone. When we include trapped soil nutrient values, the rehabilitation MRR was increased to 10. Although these numbers are impressive, the best proof of the success was that farmers on their own initiative rehabilitated an additional five gullies in 2014. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In nondegraded watersheds of humid climates, subsurface flow patterns determine where the soil saturates and where surface runoff is occurring. Most models necessarily use infiltration-excess (i.e., Hortonian) runoff for predicting runoff and associated constituents because subsurface flow algorithms are not included in the model. In this article, we modify the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model to simulate subsurface flow correctly and to predict the spatial and temporal location of saturation, the associated lateral flow and surface runoff, and the location where the water can re-infiltrate. The modified model, called WEPP-UI, correctly simulated the hillslope drainage data from the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory hillslope plot. We applied WEPP-UI to convex, concave, and S-shaped hillslope profiles, and found that multiple overland flow elements are needed to simulate distributed lateral flow and runoff well. Concave slopes had the greatest runoff, while convex slopes had the least. Our findings concur with observations in watersheds with saturation-excess overland flow that most surface runoff is generated on lower concave slopes, whereas on convex slopes runoff infiltrates before reaching the stream. Since the WEPP model is capable of simulating both saturation-excess and infiltration-excess runoff, we expect that this model will be a powerful tool in the future for managing water quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many streams in the US are impaired because of high Soluble Reactive Phosphorous (SRP) contributions from agriculture. However, the drivers of ecological processes that lead to SRP loss in baseflow from groundwater are not sufficiently understood to design effective Best Management Practices (BMPs). In this paper, we examine how soil temperature and water table depth influence the SRP concentrations in groundwater for a dairy farm in a valley bottom in the Catskills (NY, USA). Measured SRP concentrations in groundwater and baseflow were greater during the fall, when soil temperatures are warmer, than during winter and spring. The observed concentrations were within the bounds predicted by groundwater temperatures using the Arrhenius equation, except during fall, when concentrations rose above these predictions. These elevated concentrations were likely caused by mineralization and consequent accumulation of phosphorous (P) in summer. In addition, SRP concentrations were greater in near-stream areas, where water tables where higher. In short, SRP concentrations are dependent on temperature, demonstrating the importance of understanding the underlying mechanism of ecological processes. In addition, results suggest BMPs that apply manure on land having a deep groundwater, instead of on land with a shallow water table will lower overall SRP contributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study which investigates the water quality and economic consequences of protecting runoff-generating areas from agriculture with chosen best management practices (BMPs). The study shows that to install barnyard BMPs and to convert runoff-prone agricultural land to buffers are both effective in reducing dissolved P loss from one single-farm watershed with the use of a net present value analysis (NPV) and the variable Source Loading Function model. The marginal costs of increasing buffer size and the spatial location of the BMPs in association with the runoff producing areas were discovered to be the most critical considerations for profitability and water quality.

Water resource management in West Africa is often a complicated process due to inadequate resources, climatic extremes, and insufficient hydrological information. Insufficient data hinder sustainable watershed management practices, one of the top priorities in the Volta River Basin. This research properly fills in missing data by modeling the hydrological distribution in the Volta River Basin. On average, discharge gages across the basin are missing 20 percent of their monthly data over 20 years. Two methods were used to supplement missing data: a statistically linear model and a conceptual hydrological model. A linear equation, developed from the regression of precipitation and runoff, was used to evaluate the quality of existing data. The hydrological model separates the system into root and groundwater zones. Measured values were used to calibrate the hydrological model and to validate the statistical model. The quality of existing data was analyzed and organized for usability. Accuracy of the hydrological model was also evaluated for its effectiveness using R² and standard error. It was found that the hydrological model was an improvement from the linear model on a monthly basis; R² values improved by as much as 0.5 and monthly error decreased. Monthly predictions of the hydrological model were used to fill gaps of measured data sets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is an increasing need globally to establish relationships among flow, ecology, and livelihoods to make informed decisions about environmental flows. This paper aimed to establish the ecological foundation for a holistic environmental flow assessment method in the Gumara River that flows into Lake Tana in Ethiopia and the Blue Nile River. First, the ecological conditions (fish, macro-invertebrate, riparian vegetation, and physicochemical) of the river system were characterized, followed by determining the hydrological condition and finally linking the ecological and hydrological components. The ecological data were collected at 30 sites along the Gumara River on March 2016 and 2020. River hydrology was estimated using the SWAT model and showed that the low flow decreased over time. Both physico-chemical and macroinvertebrate scores showed that water quality was moderate in most locations. The highest fish diversity index was in the lower reach at Wanzaye. Macroinvertebrate diversity was observed to decrease downstream. Both the fish and macroinvertebrate diversity indices were less than the expected maximum, being 3.29 and 4.5, respectively. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for 30 m and 60 m buffer distances from the river decreased during the dry season (March–May). Hence, flow conditions, water quality, and land-use change substantially influenced the abundance and diversity of fish, vegetation, and macroinvertebrate species. The pressure on the ecology is expected to increase because the construction of the proposed dam is expected to alter the flow regime. Thus, as demand for human water consumption grows, measures are needed, including quantification of environmental flow requirements and regulating river water uses to conserve the ecological status of the Gumara River and Lake Tana sub-basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the research study conducted to examine the synthesis and analysis of conservation effects assessment projects for improved water quality. Topics discussed include effect of timing, location, and suite of implemented agricultural conservation practices, relationship of conservation practices and water quality in watersheds, and social and economic factors that facilitate or impede implementation of conservation practices.

The often rapid arrival of pesticides at the ground water has been explained by the concept of preferential movement of water and solutes through the soil. To facilitate understanding of these transport processes, a drainage study was conducted by applying a nonadsorbed tracer to plots drained by subsurface drains. Three management practices were employed: no-till, conventional-till, and conventional-till with incorporation of the tracer. The plots were irrigated with 71–203 mm of water. Drainage line outflow and tracer concentration in the outflow were monitored for up to 52 hr. The resulting soil profiles were analyzed for tracer concentration. The main effect of plowing and incorporating the tracer was a more uniform concentration in the resulting profile. A simple mixing-layer model was used to predict the rate at which the tracer was transported out of the root zone into the layers below. The model was found to be in reasonable agreement with drainage outflow patterns, especially from the incorporated plots. These results may be helpful for future development of best-management practices for controlling the effects of agriculture on environmental pollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lakes hold most of the world's fresh surface water resources. Safeguarding these resources from water quality degradation requires knowledge of the relationship between lake morphometry and water quality. The 3046-km2 Lake Tana in Ethiopia is one of the water resources in which the water quality is decreasing and water hyacinths have invaded. The objective of this study is to understand the interaction between the lake morphometry and water quality and specifically the phosphorus dynamics and their effect on the water hyacinths. A bathymetric survey was conducted in late 2017. Various morphometric parameters were derived, and both these parameters and sediment available phosphorus were regressed with the dissolved phosphorus. The results show that, with a wave base depth that is nearly equal to a maximum depth of 14.8 m, the bottom sediments were continuously suspended in the water column. As a result of the resuspension mixing, we found that the dissolved phosphorus in the water column decreased with lake depth and increased with sediment available phosphorus (R2 = 0.84) in the northern half of the lake. This relationship is not as strong in the south due to a large flow of Gilgel Abay to the outlets. Water hyacinths were found where the lake was shallow and the available phosphorus was elevated. The large reservoir of sediment phosphorus will hamper any remedial efforts in removing the water hyacinths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling of suspended sediment emission into freshwater lakes is challenging due to data gaps in developing countries. Existing models simulate sediment concentration at a gauging station upstream and none of these studies had modeled total suspended solids (TSS) emissions by inflowing rivers to freshwater lakes as there are no TSS measurements at the river mouth in the upper Blue Nile basin. In this study a 10 year TSS time series data generated from remotely sensed MODIS/Terra images using established empirical relationship is applied to calibrate and validate a hydrology model for Lake Tana in Upper Blue Nile Basin. The result showed that at a monthly time scale TSS at the river mouth can be replicated with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NS) of 0.34 for calibration and 0.21 for validation periods. Percent bias (PBIAS) and ratio of the root-mean-square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR) are all within range. Given the inaccessibility and costliness to measure TSS at river mouths to a lake the results found here are considered useful for suspended sediment budget studies in water bodies of the basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• SWAT-C predicts dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export from variable source areas. • Remotely sensed data reduced uncertainty in model predictions. • DOC predictions are sensitive to soil properties. • DOC flux is more sensitive to increases in precipitation than air temperature. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in surface water influences the global carbon cycle, ecosystem productivity, and water quality in potable water supply systems. Few physically based watershed models can simulate carbon cycling and predict DOC in surface waters under the influence of natural and anthropogenic drivers. In this work we transform the SWAT-Carbon (C) model to simulate DOC from variable source runoff areas in a humid forested watershed in the northeastern United States. Remotely sensed data were used to parameterize and simulate forest growth and evapotranspiration. The calibrated model accurately simulated streamflow and DOC flux at six sites across the watershed compared to measured data. The DOC predictions across sites showed model sensitivity to soil properties, particularly soil depth and available water capacity. The spatial distribution of DOC export across the watershed followed the pattern of surface runoff from variable source areas. Model sensitivity of DOC flux showed greater sensitivity to changes in precipitation than temperature. The overall good performance of the model makes it a valuable tool for watershed-scale modeling of DOC to understand the influence of climate and watershed management towards developing mitigation strategies. The methods presented in this study can be used in forested watersheds in regions where runoff from variable source areas is important for water quality predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Phosphorus (P) reduction in streams was analyzed based on data and SWAT-HS model. • SWAT-HS gave good predictions for daily streamflow, monthly P and sediment loads. • Pastures are the largest contributor of both soluble and particulate P in streams. • P is mostly exported from near-stream areas, particularly from pastures. • Point and non-point source P control programs are effective in NYC watersheds. New York City (NYC)'s drinking water reservoirs supply over four billion liters each day to over nine million consumers in NYC and upstate communities. In the last 25 years, the City has invested nearly $2 billion in watershed protection programs (WPPs) to maintain high source water quality, allowing NYC to avoid filtration for 90% of the supply. This study involves the use of a model to evaluate the impact of WPPs on phosphorus (P) loading in the Cannonsville Reservoir watershed, one of the unfiltered water supply sources. The model is SWAT-Hillslope (SWAT-HS), a modified version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) that can realistically predict variable source runoff processes. We applied the SWAT-HS model to this watershed to test its ability to simulate conditions observed after the implementation of watershed protection and evaluate the impact of point and non-point source WPPs on watershed export of P. When applied to a 12-year period of WPP implementation, SWAT-HS predicted streamflow very well with a daily Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.85 at the calibrated outlet and values ranging from 0.56 to 0.78 at six other locations within the watershed. Moreover, the monthly predictions of soluble P (total dissolved P), particulate P, and sediment (total suspended solids) were good with NSE of over 0.73. Model simulations indicated that the dominant source of soluble P was pastures while particulate P originated from both from croplands and pastures. A significant quantity of P was derived from near-stream areas, particularly from pastures where cattle spent time grazing and had access to streams. SWAT-HS was also used to estimate what the P export would have been over this 12-year period without WPP implementation. Point and non-point source programs were found to be important for P control, with non-point source controls most effective during high streamflow, and point source controls more beneficial at low flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This study uses an instrumented (trenched) 0.5ha hillslope in the southern tier of New York State, USA, to provide new data and insights on how variable source areas and associated flow pathways form and combine to connect rainfall with downstream water flows across a hillslope. Measurements of water fluxes in the trench, upslope water table dynamics, surface and bedrock topography, and isotopic and geochemical tracers have been combined for a four-dimensional (space–time) characterization of subsurface storm flow responses. During events with dry antecedent conditions infiltrating rainwater was found to percolate through a prevailing fragipan layer to deeper soil layers, with much (33–71%) of the total discharge of the hillslope originating from deeper water flow below the fragipan. During storm events with wet antecedent conditions and large rainfall amounts, shallow lateral flow of event and pre-event water above the fragipan occurred and was one magnitude greater than the deeper water flow contribution. Spatial surface and subsurface water quality observations indicate that water from a distance of up to 56m contributed runoff from the hillslope during storm events. In addition, mobilization of total dissolved phosphorus (TDP) with subsurface flow played a greater role than with overland or near-surface flow. During all events TDP loads were highest in the total discharge during peak flows (8–11.5kgha−1 d−1), except during the largest storm event, when TDP concentrations were highly diluted. These results have implications for strategies to protect streams and other downstream water recipients from waterborne nutrient and pollutant loading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Silage bunker runoff can be a very polluting substance and is increasingly being treated by vegetative treatment areas (VTAs), but little information exists regarding nutrient removal performance of systems receiving this wastewater. Nutrient transport through the shallow subsurface of three VTAs (i.e. one VTA at Farm WNY and two VTAs at Farm CNY) in glaciated soils containing a restrictive layer (i.e., fragipan) was assessed using a mass balance approach. At Farm WNY, the mass removal of ammonium was 63%, nitrate was 0%, and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) was 39%. At Farm CNY, the mass removal of ammonium was 79% in the West VTA, but nitrate and SRP increased by 200% and 533%, respectively. Mass removal of ammonium was 67% in the East VTA at Farm CNY; nitrate removal was 86% and SRP removal was 88%. The East VTA received a much higher nutrient loading, which was attributed to a malfunctioning low-flow collection apparatus within the settling basin. Results demonstrate that nutrient reduction mechanisms other than vegetative uptake can be significant within VTAs. Even though increases in nitrate mass were observed, concentrations in 1.65m deep wells indicated that groundwater impairment from leaching of nitrate was not likely. These results offer one of the first evaluations of VTAs treating silage bunker runoff, and highlight the importance of capturing concentrated low flows in VTA systems. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Vegetative treatment areas (VTAs) are commonly being used as an alternative method of agricultural process wastewater treatment. However, it is also apparent that to completely prevent discharge of pollutants to the surrounding environment, settling of particulates and bound constituents from overland flow through VTAs is not sufficient. For effective remediation of dissolved agricultural pollutants, VTAs must infiltrate incoming wastewater. A simple water balance model for predicting VTA soil saturation and surface discharge in landscapes characterized by sloping terrain and a shallow restrictive layer is presented and discussed. The model accounts for the cumulative effect of successive rainfall events and wastewater input on soil moisture status and depth to water table. Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies ranged from 0.65 to 0.81 for modeled and observed water table elevations after calibration of saturated hydraulic conductivity. Precipitation data from relatively low, average, and high annual rainfall years were used with soil, site, and contributing area data from an example VTA for simulations and comparisons. Model sensitivity to VTA width and contributing area (i.e. barnyard, feedlot, silage bunker, etc.) curve number was also investigated. Results of this analysis indicate that VTAs should be located on steeper slopes with deeper, more-permeable soils, which effectively lowers the shallow water table. In sloping landscapes (>2%), this model provides practitioners an easy-to-use VTA design and/or risk assessment tool that is more hydrological process-based than current methods. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Planners advocate best management practices (BMPs) to reduce loss of sediment and nutrients in agricultural areas. However, the scientific community lacks tools that use readily available data to investigate the relationships between BMPs and their spatial locations and water quality. In rural, humid regions where runoff is associated with saturation-excess processes from variable source areas (VSAs), BMPs are potentially most effective when they are located in areas that produce the majority of the runoff. Thus, two critical elements necessary to predict the water quality impact of BMPs include correct identification of VSAs and accurate predictions of nutrient reduction due to particular BMPs. The objective of this research was to determine the effectiveness of BMPs using the Variable Source Loading Function (VSLF) model, which captures the spatial and temporal evolutions of VSAs in the landscape. Data from a long-term monitoring campaign on a 164-ha farm in the New York City source watersheds in the Catskills Mountains of New York state were used to evaluate the effectiveness of a range of BMPs. The data spanned an 11-year period over which a suite of BMPs, including a nutrient management plan, riparian buffers, filter strips and fencing, was installed to reduce phosphorus (P) loading. Despite its simplicity, VSLF predicted the spatial distribution of runoff producing areas well. Dissolved P reductions were simulated well by using calibrated reduction factors for various BMPs in the VSLF model. Total P losses decreased only after cattle crossings were installed in the creek. The results demonstrated that BMPs, when sited with respect to VSAs, reduce P loss from agricultural watersheds, providing useful information for targeted water quality management. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: Many water quality models use some form of the Natural Resources Conservation Services (formerly Soil Conservation Service) curve number (CN) equation to predict storm runoff in ways that implicitly assume an infiltration-excess response to rainfall. Because of this, these models may fail to predict variable source areas (VSAs) correctly, i.e. where runoff is typically generated in rural, humid regions. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was re-conceptualized to distribute overland flow in ways consistent with VSA hydrology by modifying how the CN and available water content were defined; the new modeling approach is called SWAT-VSA. Both SWAT and SWAT-VSA were applied to a sub-watershed in the Cannonsville basin in upstate New York to compare model predictions of integrated and distributed responses, including surface runoff, shallowly perched water table depth, and stream phosphorus loads against direct measures. Event runoff was predicted similarly well for SWAT-VSA and SWAT. However, the distribution of shallowly perched water table depth was predicted better by SWAT-VSA and it is this shallow groundwater that governs VSAs. Event based dissolved phosphorus export from the watershed was also predicted better by SWAT-VSA, presumably because the distribution of runoff source areas was better predicted particularly from areas where manure was applied. This has important consequences for using models to evaluate and guide watershed management because correctly predicting where runoff is generated is critical to locating best management practices to control non-point source pollution. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In humid, well-vegetated areas, such as in the northeastern US, runoff is most commonly generated from relatively small portions of the landscape becoming completely saturated, however, little is known about the spatial and temporal behavior of these saturated regions. Indicator kriging provides a way to use traditional water table data to quantify probability of saturation to evaluate predicted spatial distributions of runoff generation risk, especially for the new generation of water quality models incorporating saturation excess runoff theory. When spatial measurements of a variable are transformed to binary indicators (i.e., 1 if above a given threshold value and 0 if below) and the resulting indicator semivariogram is modeled, indicator kriging produces the probability of the measured variable to exceed the threshold value. Indicator kriging gives quantified probability of saturation or, consistent with saturation excess runoff theory, runoff generation risk with depth to water table as the variable and the threshold set near the soil surface. The probability of saturation for a 120m×180m hillslope based upon 43 measurements of depth to water table is investigated with indicator semivariograms for six storm events. The indicator semivariograms show high spatial structure in saturated regions with large antecedent rainfall conditions. The temporal structure of the data is used to generate interpolated (soft) data to supplement measured (hard) data. This improved the spatial structure of the indicator semivariograms for lower antecedent rainfall conditions. Probability of saturation was evaluated through indicator kriging incorporating soft data showing, based on this preliminary study, highly connected regions of saturation as expected for the wet season (April through May) in the Catskill Mountain region of New York State. Supplementation of hard data with soft data incorporates physical hydrology of the hillslope to capture significant patterns not available when using hard data alone for indicator kriging. With the need for water quality models incorporating appropriate runoff generation risk estimates on the rise, this manner of data will lay the groundwork for future model evaluation and development. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Researchers have noted that current water quality protection strategies, like nutrient management plans, lack a sound hydrological underpinning for pollutant transport processes. This is especially true for areas like the northeastern U.S. where copious research has shown that variable source area hydrology largely governs runoff generation. The goal of this study was to develop a scientifically justified method to identify the locations that generate overland flow. Furthermore, this methodology must be computationally simple enough that it can be utilized or incorporated into nutrient management plans and other established water quality tools. We specifically tested the reliability of the ‘distance from a stream,’D s, and the ‘topographic index,’λ, to predict areas with a high propensity for generating overland flow, i.e. hydrologically sensitive areas (HSA). HSAs were defined by their probability of generating runoff, P sat, based on 30 year simulations using a physically based hydrological model. Using GIS, each location''s P sat was correlated with D s and λ. We used three Delaware Co., NY watersheds in the New York City watershed system with areas varying in size from 1.6 to 37km2 and with forested and agricultural land uses. The topographic index gave stronger, more regionally consistent correlations with P sat than did D s. Equations correlating λ and P sat for each month are presented and can be used to estimate hydrological sensitivity in the region surrounding our study watersheds, i.e. in Delaware Co. This work is currently being incorporated into an Internet Mapping System to facilitate user-friendly, on-line identification of HSAs. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]